Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 367: Cuomophobic

(+) Yeah! (+)

Lack of time is completely no excuse. It's been months. Failure to put any pressure on for that time is also the Dems fault. And I don't just mean Biden. Bernie and folks on the left should have been from the beginning saying they won't vote for less than $1400 and a $15 minimum wage. They should have been making trips to Arizona and West Virginia to force their hand. Nobody in congress is doing enough to get people the help they need.

Xeybozn posted...

What can the Democratic leadership threaten him with? They need his vote on other issues way more than Manchin needs them for anything.

It depends on if Manchin can actually be won over. Again, my perspective is that Manchin and friends are going to end up costing Dems the Senate in 2022. If that's the case, they could kick him out of the party. Remove his support and campaign against him in 2024. Make his seat less valuable by focusing on others. Everyone knows Manchin is only in this position because he is the 50th Senator, make it clear you're more than willing to accept a different #50 who is less difficult. No, this doesn't help us NOW, but neither does Manchin's obstructionism so just try to bully him into being less of a shit.

xp1337 posted...

Manchin has shown he will flip if pressure is applied to him by his constituents though. I already forget what it was (god it may have been earlier on this very bill for all I know) hell I think it might even have been the checks still where he flipped like two days later after West Virginians got mad at him and started flooding his office with calls. I think progressive efforts would be best directed in trying to replicate that in the short term. Long term idk - it's a problem.

For a less scorched earth take, you can do this. But it shouldn't be on progressives to do this! Every person in a leadership role to the left of Manchin should be bullying the shit out of him and riling his constituents up.

Or again if you don't want to antagonize him, just fucking bribe him. I don't care!

---

HeroDelTiempo17 posted...

But it shouldn't be on progressives to do this! Every person in a leadership role to the left of Manchin should be bullying the shit out of him and riling his constituents up.

You're right, it shouldn't be! But depending on how brittle the relationship between Manchin and Senate Leadership is that could be a dangerous move for them. Like I said, while I don't think the relationship has deteriorated anywhere near such a point, Manchin can single-handedly put them out of power by flipping to the Republicans. Hell, they'd welcome him with open arms. So if such an aggressive action came from his own colleagues it might push him towards that direction whereas if it comes from anywhere else it wouldn't.

Basically my working rule on this is that Manchin ultimately has the leverage and can win any game of chicken with Senate Dems because they need him more than he needs them. That's not true with his actual constituents. If the Senate Dems orchestrate such an effort it becomes part of that game of chicken they can't win. It's stupid af and I'm not saying they should do nothing, but the leadership has cause and reason to be more cautious and reserved in how they go after him. If you look at this bills as the only thing that matters, then yeah, they could go 100% hardball and pull all the stops but they have to worry about the VRA, judiciary confirmations, justice reform, the equality act, and all the other items on their agenda they want to pass.

Even the looming filibuster fight is a bit tricky because losing Manchin would lose them the ability to confirm judges and allow McConnell to go right back to fucking the judiciary even more by stacking it even more.

The situation just sucks all around.

---

xp1337 posted...

You're right, it shouldn't be! But depending on how brittle the relationship between Manchin and Senate Leadership is that could be a dangerous move for them. Like I said, while I don't think the relationship has deteriorated anywhere near such a point, Manchin can single-handedly put them out of power by flipping to the Republicans. Hell, they'd welcome him with open arms. So if such an aggressive action came from his own colleagues it might push him towards that direction whereas if it comes from anywhere else it wouldn't.

Yeah, I understand this. My point is that walking on eggshells to please Manchin may just have the same effect. They have a little bit of time to win him over but after that it's time for hardball. And I, personally, don't think the eggshell strategy is going to pay off in the near enough future. There's a really small window for it anyways and I'm out of patience.

---

HeroDelTiempo17 posted...

Or again if you don't want to antagonize him, just fucking bribe him. I don't care!

lol

I think they probably will in future bills. They can't here because when they started reconciliation earlier all the numbers were locked in so they can't just magic more money into the bill for that purpose. But stuff like infrastructure? WV going to look like Coruscant by the end of the decade lol. (If they can get rid of the filibuster, where I think Sinema might now be the bigger issue.)

---

Get ready for 4 years of Republicans screaming about Biden calling Abbot and Reeves Neanderthals.

---

HeroDelTiempo17 posted...

Yeah, I understand this. My point is that walking on eggshells to please Manchin may just have the same effect. They have a little bit of time to win him over but after that it's time for hardball. And I, personally, don't think the eggshell strategy is going to pay off in the near enough future. There's a really small window for it anyways and I'm out of patience.

They pretty much have to play hardball with him at some point. I think we can probably say many weren't willing to risk that here.

I imagine right now many of them are still delusional in thinking he could defend his seat as well.

---

Honestly, if they choose not to put pressure on Manchin now of all times, when people are waiting for money, when everyone in the country is saying "give us the fucking money", when everyone is pissed off enough at not getting more money, and when everyone is pissed off that they are tanking the minimum wage stuff, and that they are trying to give people less, when else but NOW should they pressure Manchin on something?

Because this just encourages people to not vote for a Dem senator now.

---

UshiromiyaEva posted...

Get ready for 4 years of Republicans screaming about Biden calling Abbot and Reeves Neanderthals.

They are some in their circle still bringing up the "Dr" thing to this day.

The pettiness is going to get really petty.

Going to hear all about how they couldn't work with Democrats or vote with them because the Democrats hurt their feelings.

---

https://twitter.com/PoorlyAgedStuff/status/1367261869480755201?s=19

---

PrivateBiscuit1 posted...

when else but NOW should they pressure Manchin on something?

I mean if I just were to give you a cold, unfeeling answer it would be on HR1/John Lewis Voting Rights Act. (More precisely, to remove the filibuster so they can actually pass it. He already supports the bill itself.)

That's probably the most important piece of legislation that will face this Congress. State Republican parties have gone into overdrive trying to restrict voting rights and gerrymander (and they were already going hard on those before)

Generally speaking, it's the filibuster fight where you'd want to go max pressure. Unfortunately I think the way it probably goes is that the Senate piles up with a bunch of filibustered legislation the House is sending to them (Equality Act, HR1, Police Reform, etc.) and rather than any one bill in particular being what drives the fight, they'll try and point to the logjam as the reason to change/kill the filibuster.

It's a genuine tragedy though that there is going to be real suffering along the way to that point because for some godforsaken reason Manchin and Sinema will need to have this political theater played out for them first (if indeed they can even be swayed. If they can't then god just fuck everything we're doomed) but that's how much of a joke our institutions are that it has gotten to this point.

---

xp1337 posted...

(if indeed they can even be swayed. If they can't then god just fuck everything we're doomed)

We are probably doomed, to be fair.

Speaking of HR1, it has some pretty bad stuff mixed in with the good stuff.

https://howiehawkins.us/hr1/

Wish they would get rid of that portion of it but I don't see anyone outside of the Greens advocating for that, which means it almost certainly stays in.

xp1337 posted...

lol

I think they probably will in future bills. They can't here because when they started reconciliation earlier all the numbers were locked in so they can't just magic more money into the bill for that purpose. But stuff like infrastructure? WV going to look like Coruscant by the end of the decade lol. (If they can get rid of the filibuster, where I think Sinema might now be the bigger issue.)

My only issue is that someone posted something in here about how Dems apparently didn't reach out to Sinema over some of this reconciliation stuff. And that's just a bad sign. I think you're right in that they are really limited by this part of the process but they SHOULD be reaching out now and getting this bill through because the real fight starts after it passes. Republicans will start filibustering legislation and the reality is the Dems will have to convince the centrists holdouts to get on board AND abolish the filibuster at the same time. It feels to me like leadership is dragging their feet and pretending like that isn't what will happen. Publicly? I get it. But the private conversations should be happening.

---

I feel like you guys are simultaneously mad that its a two party system and are aghast that the people in the two parties aren't homogenous.

Like manchin would not be in the same political party as Elizabeth Warren if there were more than two political parties guys

---

masterplum posted...

I feel like you guys are simultaneously mad that its a two party system and are aghast that the people in the two parties aren't homogenous.

Like manchin would not be in the same political party as Elizabeth Warren if there were more than two political parties guys

Who is debating this? None of this is contradictory. People are upset because our political system is nonfunctional.

---

masterplum posted...

I feel like you guys are simultaneously mad that its a two party system and are aghast that the people in the two parties aren't homogenous.

Like manchin would not be in the same political party as Elizabeth Warren if there were more than two political parties guys

No, we're mad that the Republican Party is nothing but obstructionist tools who's only desire in enriching themselves at the expense of the poor and middle class.

---

Republicans are swearing they'll do everything they can to slow down the relief bill, including forcing an outloud reading of the entire thing and bringing up as many amendment votes as they can

It's like neither party wants to win

---

StealThisSheen posted...

Republicans are swearing they'll do everything they can to slow down the relief bill, including forcing an outloud reading of the entire thing and bringing up as many amendment votes as they can

It's like neither party wants to win

I really can't blame the Democratic party as a whole when it really is just one or two holdout assholes.

---

fuming posted...

Lack of time is completely no excuse. It's been months. Failure to put any pressure on for that time is also the Dems fault. And I don't just mean Biden. Bernie and folks on the left should have been from the beginning saying they won't vote for less than $1400 and a $15 minimum wage. They should have been making trips to Arizona and West Virginia to force their hand. Nobody in congress is doing enough to get people the help they need.

I agree in theory, but in practice the same brain poisoned people who say the Dems need to bend to Manchin would say Bernie is choosing to support the Republicans instead of better than nothing.

masterplum posted...

I feel like you guys are simultaneously mad that its a two party system and are aghast that the people in the two parties aren't homogenous.

Like manchin would not be in the same political party as Elizabeth Warren if there were more than two political parties guys

huh? Who is this in response too?

---

ChaosTonyV4 posted...

I agree in theory, but in practice the same brain poisoned people who say the Dems need to bend to Manchin would say Bernie is choosing to support the Republicans instead of better than nothing.

huh? Who is this in response too?

Also I would bet Manchin is significantly more popular in WV than Bernie.

Bernie literally did everything he could and tried a couple of different ways to get it through. People looking to blame people other than moderate dems here (well, especially republicans but I mean that would be obvious) are stretching like crazy.


---

Go watch Bernie's town hall in West Virginia and tell me he can't appeal to them. Look at how Manchin got furious when Kamala made appearances talking about passing the covid relief package in West Virginia and Arizona, he absolutely doesn't want that pressure on him. We can't definitively say that pressuring him would work, rather than push him to just change to GOP or something, but we can definitively say that not pressuring him hasn't changed his mind to support the original package or the $15 min wage.

UltimaterializerX posted...

They. Are. The. Same. Party.

They are not.

---

UltimaterializerX posted...

They. Are. The. Same. Party.

Again there are 48 senators that want to increase unemployment and get relief checks out ASAP. 100% of these senators are from the Democratic Party. Republicans want zero dollars and zero unemployment.

Democrats are bad and/or stupid and/or incompetent = fine
Democrats and republicans are the same = strong disagree not even close

---

fuming posted...

Go watch Bernie's town hall in West Virginia and tell me he can't appeal to them. Look at how Manchin got furious when Kamala made appearances talking about passing the covid relief package in West Virginia and Arizona, he absolutely doesn't want that pressure on him. We can't definitively say that pressuring him would work, rather than push him to just change to GOP or something, but we can definitively say that not pressuring him hasn't changed his mind to support the original package or the $15 min wage.

It is not Bernie Sanders fault West Virginia sucks. Democrats ran a super progressive candidate in WV and lost by like 65% points. Him having one town hall with people that were willing to actually listen doesnt change things enough, sorry.

Sanders deserves literally zero percent of the blame.

---

I am actually currently at -3% of the blame on my Bernie meter.

---

Thats also an acceptable percentage of blame.

---

Can I put 100% of the blame on Maine? Fuck Maine.

---

Suprak the Stud posted...

It is not Bernie Sanders fault West Virginia sucks. Democrats ran a super progressive candidate in WV and lost by like 65% points. Him having one town hall with people that were willing to actually listen doesnt change things enough, sorry.

Sanders deserves literally zero percent of the blame.

You guys always go back to voting. Most people vote completely incoherently and don't have a clue what they are voting for. They know if they like the guy in office or don't like the guy in office. A PR campaign that goes after the guy for being the reason you don't get a minimum wage increase that the overwhelming majority of voters in west virginia support would be tons of pressure on Manchin. They should be pushing his constituents to call and email his office. The point of the town hall is that if someone actually gets in front of people and talks to them coherently, they get it. Most of the reason politicians say no to things is because they don't have any pressure on them to do anything but say no.

fuming posted...

You guys always go back to voting. Most people vote completely incoherently and don't have a clue what they are voting for. They know if they like the guy in office or don't like the guy in office. A PR campaign that goes after the guy for being the reason you don't get a minimum wage increase that the overwhelming majority of voters in west virginia support would be tons of pressure on Manchin. They should be pushing his constituents to call and email his office. The point of the town hall is that if someone actually gets in front of people and talks to them coherently, they get it. Most of the reason politicians say no to things is because they don't have any pressure on them to do anything but say no.

Link me to the poll please. I haven't seen much to suggest WV is in support of any good policy, ever, so I would be surprised by that.

WV is not some secret progressive enclave where we would do better if gosh darnit we could just get our message across. It is the most conservative state in the country and they elect nothing but republicans at every level at all times. Those are the most important polls and democrats simply do not win in WV. It was the state that loved Trump the most, iirc. I don't care how good Sanders is at getting his message across - he isn't changing that.

---

LIke there are a few things at play here imo:

1) This bill needs to be passed yesterday
2) No republicans are voting
3) Manchin is an absolutely required vote and he has no reason to be afraid of pressure from Bernie or AOC or whoever else you want to suggest because he's from WV

I cannot imagine how long it might take to convince Manchin that he's wrong, but you run the risk he never comes to that conclusion. So now you're stalling the bill out even longer for something that Manchin basically has no reason to bend on. Blame Manchin but I cannot imagine the gymnastics you need to be doing for Sanders to shoulder the blame when he has been doing everything he could think of to get basically all the good things you want in the bill in the bill.

TheRock1525 posted...

Can I put 100% of the blame on Maine? Fuck Maine.

Alternatively, this is good too.

---

https://www.wdtv.com/2021/02/25/poll-majority-of-west-virginians-support-15-federal-minimum-wage/

And I've never been putting the blame on Bernie, just saying that literally anyone in congress could try putting some pressure on instead of what they are doing, which is just trying to find new legislative workarounds that still would require his support.

Oh cool, thanks. But:

A new poll out in February by the One Fair Wage Coalition claims that 63% of West Virginians support raising the federal minimum wage to $15 an hour by 2025.

https://onefairwage.site/

One Fair Wage is a national coalition, campaign and organization seeking to end all subminimum wages in the United States and increase the sustainability of wages and working conditions in the service sector.

There is no way I believe that poll. It is like when a candidate publishes some internal poll that shows them like twenty points above where unbiased polling shows them. Like that sounds like a great organization, but I am not trusting any poll they put out based on the thing they're advocating for.

---

Out of curiosity, I googled "West Virginia minimum wage polling" and found this, which is even more depressing. I haven't looked at the poll itself, but the good news is that 60% approve of the $15 minimum wage. 71% approve of Manchin's plan though, including a higher amount of democrats than the $15. This doesn't quite answer the question though, because (and again I have read the poll itself) I think the better phrased question would be "if yes (approve of the minimum wage increase) then do you support plan a or plan b". I feel like if it is phrased that way, then the $15 plan would actually be more popular, nationwide at least.

https://www.newsweek.com/joe-manchins-11-minimum-wage-more-popular-bidens-15among-democrats-republicans-1573489

(I couldn't find anything for WV itself after a brief cursory search that wasn't the poll linked above, but I could be missing something)

---

Suprak the Stud posted...

Out of curiosity, I googled "West Virginia minimum wage polling" and found this, which is even more depressing. I haven't looked at the poll itself, but the good news is that 60% approve of the $15 minimum wage. 71% approve of Manchin's plan though, including a higher amount of democrats than the $15. This doesn't quite answer the question though, because (and again I have read the poll itself) I think the better phrased question would be "if yes (approve of the minimum wage increase) then do you support plan a or plan b". I feel like if it is phrased that way, then the $15 plan would actually be more popular, nationwide at least.

https://www.newsweek.com/joe-manchins-11-minimum-wage-more-popular-bidens-15among-democrats-republicans-1573489

(I couldn't find anything for WV itself after a brief cursory search that wasn't the poll linked above, but I could be missing something)

I mean it seems obvious to me that this is because voters do not see this as an either/or thing. They are being presented with two options and going "oh! both of these are good!"

This is not how politics actually works. Part of putting pressure on Manchin would be screaming to these voters "we are trying to do one of these plans, right now, and Manchin is blocking it. We will not get either if he keeps doing this."

---

Today olds are concerned that we aren't having enough children to take care of them. Where do you even start here?

https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/1366966438406328323?s=19

---

Hey, if we still have a planet at that time overpopulation will take care of itself!

---

PrivateBiscuit1 posted...

Today olds are concerned that we aren't having enough children to take care of them. Where do you even start here?

https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/1366966438406328323?s=19

By 2064. The concern would be more for young people now.

---

If only there was some other way of increasing our population...

---

I know my wife and I would have more kids, but 2 is already incredibly expensive (our oldest is adopted too, which cost us over $25,000 for a stork drop) with daycare and everything else, and that doesn't even count the possibility of them going to college and how expensive that's going to be. It also doesn't help that I still have to sleep on the floor in our 7 year olds room because she's going through another 3 month phase where she's afraid of the dark again.

I'm genuinely curious to see if there's some kind of study that explains why people are having less kids these days. Is it because kids can be a pain in the ass, that people just don't want them, is it the cost, etc. I should dig around on that at some point.

---

We want kid(s?) but can't afford it currently. I suspect we won't be able to while we're still fertile. :\

but I imagine it's a combo of all those factors, generally

---

Well you have these scenarios.

"I had a kid and I can't keep up with affording them." "Woah, maybe you shouldn't have had a kid if you can't afford one!" "Can you make having a child more affordable, decrease cost of living, and give us a decent amount of money?" "Nnnnnnope!"

"I'd like a kid but I can't afford one." "My family was able to afford 4 kids. I don't see why this generation can't. They're just making excuses for being selfish."

---

I think that this is self-selection on first-world women's parts. I've noticed that countries/regions with the lowest birth rates tend to be ones that still have very traditional views towards men/women's roles (East Asia, Eastern/Southern Europe, the upper classes in Latin America), as opposed to higher rates in places like France and Scandinavia (although I think this might have started to change recently), who have less of those issues. They are still lower than replacement, but not like others.

Even within the US/Canada, the areas with the highest birth rates are the Mountain/Prairie regions, where women have traditionally been considered more equal to men in their jobs/society.

---

Motion to proceed on the reconciliation bill passes 51-50 with Harris as the tiebreaker obv.

Still, given all the GOP stall bullshit they plan, I don't think the actual vote in the Senate is expected until the weekend. (Forcing the clerk to read the full text will eat up a few hours, then there's up to 20 hours of debate, then votearama 2.0 which can go on as long as Senators can offer amendments which all together probably pushes us into Saturday at least)

---

I don't work the retail level anymore, but my company just put out a bulletin stating they will continue to enforce face mask guidelines for both employees and customers regardless of local mandates.

So that puts me a little at ease I guess, personally.

---

I just read an entire thread on imgur about doctors crying because of how cruel insurance companies are at denying their suggestions as not medically necessary.

Fuck everyone who doesn't want universal Healthcare and doubly fuck anyone who defends the insurance industry.

---

Man, I thought Ron Johnson was a huge asshole. But it turns out he's actually totally evil too. And not just because he used the word "boondongle".

Also please note that currently 4 people are sitting in and listening to this being read out currently, and he's one of them. People like this dude just need to be ejected out of office immediately. Just a clear abuse of power on his end acting AGAINST even trying to reform or get anything done or working with anyone else. Just no reason to allow this guy around at all.

https://twitter.com/SenRonJohnson/status/1367239364774932483?s=20

---