Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 336: Through the Wire

(+) Yeah! (+)

One thing I did look up regarding margins (assuming Biden wins and remains above 50% of the popular vote): this will be only the fourth time in history an incumbent President has lost to a challenger who managed 50%+ of the popular vote. The other three times

William Henry Harrison (1840)
FDR (1932)
Reagan (1980)

Two of those guys are political juggernauts who probably would have slaughtered anyone, so from at least this perspective, this is a very poor showing for Trump.

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Wanglicious posted...

then there's a lot of democrats who don't have functional brains considering harrison raised $107 million to beat him.

i mean you might as well say bernie supporters don't have functional brains for all the money he raised in the primary because it was always a long shot for him

but that's not at all how campaigns work

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Now if only the popular vote meant anything.

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Republicans gave $10,000,000 to AOC's opponent.

Let's compare how much that is per vote.

Democrats hate-spent about $102 per vote to try to oust Lindsey Graham. A race he lost by 12%
Republicans hate-spent about $213 per vote to try to oust AOC. A race she won by 38%.

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UltimaterializerX posted...

So yes I am a moron :P

And yes Wisconsin and Michigan are done. Biden has those, but something really shady is going on in Wisconsin. Michigan I think Biden won legit, but not Wisconsin. There are more total votes cast than there are registered voters.

https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-rankings/number-of-registered-voters-by-state

The state has 3,129,000 registered voters. There are currently over 3.2 million votes cast, and not only would same-day in-person registration wouldn't make that up, in-person voting massively favored republicans there.

The Wisconsin Elections Commission Administrator has told NBC reporters that all the votes are in. If theres nothing more to count, then Biden would seem to have won that state by 20,697 votes, but thats still within the 1 percent margin that would allow the Trump campaign to request a recount, though. Also, just in case youre seeing one of the many disinformation scams out there, Wisconsin has 3,684,726 active voters and counted 3,288,771 votes. ABC News has not issued a projection here, as the Decision Desk wont project races where the margin is within 1 percentage point.

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UltimaterializerX posted...

So yes I am a moron :P

And yes Wisconsin and Michigan are done. Biden has those, but something really shady is going on in Wisconsin. Michigan I think Biden won legit, but not Wisconsin. There are more total votes cast than there are registered voters.

https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-rankings/number-of-registered-voters-by-state

The state has 3,129,000 registered voters. There are currently over 3.2 million votes cast, and not only would same-day in-person registration wouldn't make that up, in-person voting massively favored republicans there.

This is false. I just saw something about it about an hour ago, let me see if I can find it again.

Edit: Nevermind, Chris explained it already

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Dancedreamer posted...

Republicans gave $10,000,000 to AOC's opponent.

Let's compare how much that is per vote.

Democrats hate-spent about $102 per vote to try to oust Lindsey Graham. A race he lost by 12%
Republicans hate-spent about $213 per vote to try to oust AOC. A race she won by 38%.

Isn't the fun one Omar?

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Dancedreamer posted...

Republicans gave $10,000,000 to AOC's opponent.

Let's compare how much that is per vote.

Democrats hate-spent about $102 per vote to try to oust Lindsey Graham. A race he lost by 12%
Republicans hate-spent about $213 per vote to try to oust AOC. A race she won by 38%.

I don't think this is a fair comparison, because a representative in one state is going to have a smaller constituency than a senator in another (unless you're comparing like a representative from California and a senator from Wyoming).

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DoomTheGyarados posted...

Isn't the fun one Omar?

how did they perform compared to polls though?
is the massive miscalculation all in one direction or does it underrepresent their victories as well?

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Chris covered it essentially, but

UltimaterializerX posted...

The state has 3,129,000 registered voters.

is the 2018 number for registered voters. Not 2020.

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edit: I'm slow

edit edit: but for giggles here is the source for the WI voting totals:

https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/voting-and-registration/p20-583.html

Table 4c, data as of November 2018.

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Nevermind I misunderstood the argument

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Not_an_Owl posted...

I don't think this is a fair comparison, because a representative in one state is going to have a smaller constituency than a senator in another (unless you're comparing like a representative from California and a senator from Wyoming).

I think it's fair because Senate campaigns tend to need more money than house campaigns, and senate races tend to have more impact. (On the off chance AOC lost, that's a pickup of .2% while if Lindsey Graham lost, it's a pickup of 1%)

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Looks like Perdue will hang on in Georgia.

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https://mobile.twitter.com/Data_Orbital/status/1324045286537273346

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Yeah, those are election day of votes.
Those break for Trump hard and the areas are largely red there too.

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Are we sure about that? Maricopa and Pima have been going for Biden. Even if they are 50/50 it won't be enough for Trump to make gains in the other counties.

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The thing is that we know the party registration of people who submitted early votes late also broke hard for Republicans. And Arizona has already counted "early early votes" meaning those received before the weekend vs "late early votes" which are those received since then.

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charmander6000 posted...

Are we sure about that? Maricopa and Pima have been going for Biden. Even if they are 50/50 it won't be enough for Trump to make gains in the other counties.

They are just flat out wrong. Maricopa is going to break more for Biden than it already is(52ish) and that is a huge majority of the leftover votes.

In somewhat unrelated news I am disgusted by many of the Proposition results in California.

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charmander6000 posted...

Are we sure about that? Maricopa and Pima have been going for Biden. Even if they are 50/50 it won't be enough for Trump to make gains in the other counties.

Trump has to make up the gap mostly with Maricopa county votes as that's where the population is. Remember, traditionally this is a slightly red county and Trump won it in 2016. If he gets to even there instead of losing by 6 points, that would be a gain of 100k votes.

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Forceful_Dragon posted...

In somewhat unrelated news I am disgusted by many of the Proposition results in California.

big mood

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https://twitter.com/MattMackowiak/status/1324041161321992192?s=19

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California props went almost entirely against my vote.

Forceful_Dragon posted...

In somewhat unrelated news I am disgusted by many of the Proposition results in California.

Yeah, Uber and Lyft getting everything they wanted by throwing money at the problem sucks a lot

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https://twitter.com/ryanmatsumoto1/status/1324052589919436801

peters

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Leafeon13N posted...

California props went almost entirely against my vote.

Assuming nothing changes I am happy with: 14, 17, 19, 20, 24

And unhappy with: 15, 16, 18, 21, 22, 23, 25

But the ones I felt more strongly on seemed to be the ones that went the other way.


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red sox 777 posted...

Trump has to make up the gap mostly with Maricopa county votes as that's where the population is. Remember, traditionally this is a slightly red county and Trump won it in 2016. If he gets to even there instead of losing by 6 points, that would be a gain of 100k votes.

Regardless, if there are 500k votes remaining, Trump needs around 59.3% of the remaining votes to win, that's going to be a tall order.

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Gideon officially conceded.

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Collins officially won, seems the opponent called to resign. From down 8% to up 3% with a win.

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gross

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Fucking hell. The CA props are almost exactly opposite what I voted.

I think the only two props that went the way I wanted were 17 and 20. Abstained from voting on 14 because I couldn't really decide there.

Everything else sucks.


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charmander6000 posted...

Regardless, if there are 500k votes remaining, Trump needs around 59.3% of the remaining votes to win, that's going to be a tall order.

Certainly not easy. The thing that Democrats should worry about is that the same effect occurs with Maricopa and Pima as happened with the big blue counties in Wisconsin and Michigan - early in the night Biden was far underperforming Clinton's percentage, but it actually meant that his percentage in the remaining votes was even higher, much higher, than Clinton's to bring his overall tally close to hers.

So no one has called Nevada yet, and I guess people are worried it's possible the outstanding ballots, consisting of late early votes, could favor Trump? There the problem is they probably won't favor him at all, but if they do, Biden's lead is tiny (7,000 ish votes).

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charmander6000 posted...

Are we sure about that? Maricopa and Pima have been going for Biden. Even if they are 50/50 it won't be enough for Trump to make gains in the other counties.

I'm not sure we can trust Wang's insights on this since last night he said Trump was winning PA because Pittsburgh was going hard red which was... Never the case.

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In slightly happier news, my county pretty strongly approved a measure to make a miniscule tax increase to better fund the local forest preserve. That's pretty neat!

it'll take me a long time to not be bitter over illinois' graduated tax constitutional amendment failing

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i'll never get american ballots



we just write 1 X, stuff it in the box

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I can see Nevada flipping before Arizona, that state is definitely not safe.

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Grimlyn posted...

i'll never get american ballots

we just write 1 X, stuff it in the box

That's a Canadian ballot

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charmander6000 posted...

That's a Canadian ballot

yes I am Canadian and I described our ballots

I'm curious on Americans since they have so much stuff and then there's also a thing about voting machines and i don't get what it's like!

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Honestly I could see both NV and AZ flipping, so he's gonna need something else.

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charmander6000 posted...

I can see Nevada flipping before Arizona, that state is definitely not safe.

Based on what's left, it's extremely unlikely either would flip.

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This site tracks early votes as they are received in Arizona. Its last update was as of Monday, so it does not include early votes dropped off on election day. This shows a 25k party registration lead for Republicans as of Monday.

https://www.dataorbital.com/2020-general-election-early-vote-tracker

This article shows that as of Friday, Democrats held a 26k party registration lead:

https://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/news/2020/10/31/arizonans-cast-record-number-early-ballots.html

So it means that mostly on Monday, Republicans turned +51k in party registration. If that translates into straight votes, that reduces Biden's 93k vote lead to 42k. This does not include the early votes dropped off on election day, which I would guess would exceed the votes dropped off/received on Monday. Also, this is assuming independents break evenly - based on Florida yesterday I would expect late-voting independents to break for Trump.

So I think we've got ourselves a game. And if Trump does come back, Fox News will lose credibility for calling it so early before they had even counted the election day votes!

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Well, of outstanding votes in Arizona, there are many more left from counties that went Trump in 2016 than Clinton, which is where it gets dicey.

And then in Nevada it's just so close overall that it could literally swing either way depending on what votes have been counted.

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nevada only has 67% reporting. i'm impatient, what's the holdup?

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Nevada's not announcing any more results until tomorrow.

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red sox 777 posted...

And if Trump does come back, Fox News will lose credibility for calling it so early before they had even counted the election day votes!

not just fox, AP also called it and apparently they're usually cautious about calling states. if it turns out they were completely wrong about this, that's truly bizarre.

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Mr Lasastryke posted...

not just fox, AP also called it and apparently they're usually cautious about calling states. if it turns out they were completely wrong about this, that's truly bizarre.

To be fair, they were under the impression that more votes were already counted.

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Grimlyn posted...

i'll never get american ballots



we just write 1 X, stuff it in the box

Grimlyn posted...

yes I am Canadian and I described our ballots

I'm curious on Americans since they have so much stuff and then there's also a thing about voting machines and i don't get what it's like!

It's literally the same format, mark the box beside your choice. There's just a few more things to choose about.

Voting machines just show you a virtual version of the same thing.