Board 8 > Stock Topic 12

(+) Yeah! (+)

TheCodeisBosco posted...

I have to say, SUN looks really admirable after all this. Most of the other oil stocks have been beaten within an inch of their life (VLO, XOM, PSX, the list goes on) yet SUN continues to hold on to the $24-$25 range like Linus clutching his blanket.

I was on the VLO train in the early months of the pandemic, but shifted gears to SUN once I saw the writing on the wall. Rather glad I did.

Barry????

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Knew I shouldve went into PRU yesterday.

greengravy294 posted...

Barry????

He's very good!

(Seriously though, I don't follow.)

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Is it recommended to pull everything out of the markets right before the election?

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Only if you are very confident Trump will lose. If he wins then they probably go up.

Why will markets go up if he wins? Do investors feel there will be stability if he wins?

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Because the market expects Trump to govern to make the stock market go up. For instance, cutting taxes, bailing out big corporations, etc.

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I wish I could be confident he'll lose. Wanted the virus to keep him at bay until election's over

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There goes apple

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The markets will go up when someone wins the election is probably true.

Worst case scenario for the markets is a situation where there is not a winner.

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I'd assume markets would slightly go down if Biden wins due to his corporate tax increase he wants. Should rebound though quickly.

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Welp, futures are getting crushed.

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When do you think it's time to panic?

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....Never?

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masterplum posted...

....Never?

Stocks only go up?

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Stocks only go up.

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Damn, Im only down 9% in Chipotle. I was really hoping to be down 10% by now.

I've lost 30% of my holdings on all those options I bought so far

Most of them expire in 1/22 and I expect them to be well in the money at some point before then, but I see why it's so easy to lose money with these. Not for the faint of heart. Buying all those volatile bio stocks was good training for this.

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Never panic.

Another bloodbath day

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In non options news my old haunt TCDA dropped from like $8.50 to $4 on another bad FDA beat and a bunch of layoffs, but I think the fact they did so many layoffs is a good sign they don't plan to do an offering and just want to get operating costs low enough that they can get their product out before they start having finance problems, which is good news for an investor

I got in at $5 and it's still going up to $5.63. I think this one is really safe to get back to $8 personally even without any news, but we'll see.

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Lopen I heard you are into the penny stock lifestyle

are you in on the BRTXQ train. it's a company that was in bankruptcy and had stock prices fall to literally 1 cent but is now trying to come back out of it.

I tried to get in on Oct 23rd, and again on the 27th but my broker must be trying to protect me from myself because it didn't fulfill them, not even sure why.

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I don't invest in bankrupt companies I invest in cheap companies with legitimate growth potential that I don't expect to go bankrupt.

I think you shouldn't invest in bankrupt companies either.

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Hertz was delisted today and moved onto OTC. The new symbol is HTZGQ. It fell from around $1.80 yesterday to around 80 cents now. Based on how Luckin Coffee did when it was delisted, there is potential for a major bounce on Monday. I put in a limit order at 60 cents, which is probably not going to trigger.

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Hmm, interesting advice

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Well luckin bounced because it chose to be delisted which I think is a big distinction.

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You want high return borderline gamble plays I think investing in short expiry out of the money calls or puts is the better way

I've got 20% return on these 11/06 $11.5 AAL calls right now after one good day! It would probably be smart to sell but I feel like Biden winning is gonna spike the market so I like this 11/06 expiry a lot.

Or you could just put all your money on TRVN and enjoy quadrupling your money in a couple of years.

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My portfolio is somehow green today, albeit by only 0.4%. After the absolute ass-kicking I received on Mon and especially Wed, I'll take it.

Strongly considering buying back into CASY if it falls a little more.

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What
How

Every stock in my watch list is in red today

I also have a failures watch list and somehow CCL jumped 7% just now
Uh

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Those cruise stocks just spiked in the last 30 minutes. There must have been some good news that came out.

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Yes, the CDC lifted its no sail order. But if Biden wins, cruises are probably getting banned again.

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What is the actual cost you guys are generally paying to set up a call?

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red sox 777 posted...

Yes, the CDC lifted its no sail order

When Europe and the US both are breaking new records
Nice timing

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CoolCly posted...

What is the actual cost you guys are generally paying to set up a call?

I'm not an options expert or anything I'm kinda just feeling this out.

For the short term ones I'm paying $0.2 to $1 or $20-$100 per contract and unloading them when I go a little green.

For the longer term ones (which is most of them) I'm paying a higher premium but I'm not really looking at the cost per contract and mostly just thinking in terms of the strike price. Like I have a bunch of $2.5 TRVN calls with 1/22 expiry that cost me around $150 per effectively having a $4 strike price. I figure TRVN is basically a lock to get over $4 in a year (probably much sooner) so to me this is basically just floating my money, letting me use a lot of my $6000 in TRVN on something else.

But then I have some fairly pricey ones. I have a 1/22 $72.5 Chevron contract that I paid $750 for. To me it's like "will Chevron break $80 value at some point between now and 1/22" and I figure that's almost a given, even if it's just for a few days off the back of a stimulus or something. I could layer more calls if I think something is super undervalued but it does lower the profit margin so I'm not doing that much. I'm trying not to hold contracts that I think can't ever be exercised even if I don't intend to exercise them (like for instance right now off of this news I bought a $13.5 CCL put-- I could buy like 3x more $12 puts to amp my profits if I get em but I think even when Biden wins that it's not going below $12 so while the "value" might go up I don't really want to think of that it makes my head hurt)

It's all about the strike price and guessing where it'll be at sometime before expiration for me.

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Well this one is hurting

I think we are in for a real pounding Monday too

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Dunno why the cruise lines are up like 7% though. That's a huge trap

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Oh my Hertz trade executed. It's up 10 cents already. I'm going to hold over the weekend and probably sell Monday.

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At this point I may have to predict a Biden win. The market appears to have been pricing in a Biden win over the last week. Which means it shouldn't fall any further if he actually does win.

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I definitely wouldn't underestimate the power of Trump and his supporters

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I personally feel like most stocks will go up after the election no matter who wins unless there's some weird election drama. You're right that Biden winning is priced in though-- Trump winning would cause even more of a spike in certain sectors

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I'm buying everything on Monday.

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Yes Im getting in Monday. Stay away!

Thank you Lopen, that's a lot of useful information for me.

Well, when I invest in a penny stock, I'm investing a small amount, like $50. My assumption now is that money is GONE, but there's a chance it could turn into a good amount of money. The risk is very small because I'm not putting anything of value at risk, but there is potential for large gain. I would never invest a significant amount of money into something like this - that would just be throwing away thousands of dollars. That would be very bad. This amount means this is actually more like "this fits into my monthly entertainment budget" rather than "this is a significant investment decision"

To me, options seem potentially lucrative but also introduces a high amount of volatility to a game that is *already* extremely volatile. It intentionally turns stock trading into more of a short term game, which is where I think most volatility and unpredictability lies. Any stock I'm bullish on long term, anything that might happen in the short term is a lot less predictable.

That everybody in here embraces them so heavily really makes me scratch my head. The reactions I see in this topic to completely normal (and even expected) drops to me were puzzling at first, but I've come to realize it may mostly be due to call deadlines you guys have set.

Do you guys go into calls with the same assumption I do with penny stocks - the amount you spent to buy the call is gone and you are okay with that even if the option expires without you exercising it? Or would you consider that a big loss and be upset by it? I mentioned about how these increase volatility, but I do recognize that from some perspectives they could be looked at as managing volatility, and the worst case is just that you lose the amount spent to obtain the call. How bad that is depends on your expectations - is that an acceptable sunk cost or is success necessary?

I feel like I would not see it the same way I see my investments in penny stocks, though I recognize the costs could be similar, so maybe it could be seen that way.

I'm enforcing a ban on myself of NO OPTIONS until 2022 at the earliest, because I do not understand them enough to justify that kind of increased volatility, even if I might think that I do. The normal buy and sell of the market is enough for me to observe for now.

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Yeah with options in particular I'm basically considering my money vapor. However I'm getting long enough term ones that I don't really see them as gambles. In fact they may be less risky because I'm diversifying among a lot of things that I see going up. I have a ton of money in option form in Chevron, American Airlines, Sabre, Trevena, Athersys, Nordstrom, Albertsons, and Pfeizer. If I didn't use options I would just put more into less things.

But like if Chevron never cracks $80 before my option expires I'd be super shocked. Same with Nordstrom and $19, same with Sabre and $10.
If TRVN never cracked $4 before my option expires I'd rather not have quite as much money it anyway. Same with Athersys and $2.50.

Yes if they ALL go bust I'm going to lose like $5000 and have nothing to show for it, but if any of them pay off big I feel like if even one pays off big it's going to nullify all the other investments. Especially since, if you're not totally wrong you can either sell the option for somewhere near what you got it for, or just exercise it yourself and buy the stock at your price.

BUT like the key is you keep your eye on the value of the stock not the option, and basically treat it like you're buying the stock at the price + the price of the contract (meaning you pretty much always start red, which can be hard to get over psychologically). My SABR calls currently show at -$437 despite the stock only having gone down by like $0.50 My TRVN calls are at -$300 despite the stock being at roughly the same price as when I bought the options. But like, there's NO reason to panic about that despite it showing as I've lost a ton of money. Because I haven't lost the money. I can just wait for the stock to go where I want it to go and the value of the option will correct and then some.

But like say Chevron hits $90 (totally likely with the next stimulus or good coronavirus news, it hit $105 in June) at any time before now and 1/22. The base profit margin of just cashing out on the option is $1000 (as I can exercise the option, buy 100 shares for $72.5 a piece and sell them for $90 a piece) there, and it'll probably be higher because stocks go up, so the duration will also influence the price.

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CoolCly posted...

Thank you Lopen, that's a lot of useful information for me.

Well, when I invest in a penny stock, I'm investing a small amount, like $50. My assumption now is that money is GONE, but there's a chance it could turn into a good amount of money. The risk is very small because I'm not putting anything of value at risk, but there is potential for large gain. I would never invest a significant amount of money into something like this - that would just be throwing away thousands of dollars. That would be very bad. This amount means this is actually more like "this fits into my monthly entertainment budget" rather than "this is a significant investment decision"

To me, options seem potentially lucrative but also introduces a high amount of volatility to a game that is *already* extremely volatile. It intentionally turns stock trading into more of a short term game, which is where I think most volatility and unpredictability lies. Any stock I'm bullish on long term, anything that might happen in the short term is a lot less predictable.

That everybody in here embraces them so heavily really makes me scratch my head. The reactions I see in this topic to completely normal (and even expected) drops to me were puzzling at first, but I've come to realize it may mostly be due to call deadlines you guys have set.

Do you guys go into calls with the same assumption I do with penny stocks - the amount you spent to buy the call is gone and you are okay with that even if the option expires without you exercising it? Or would you consider that a big loss and be upset by it? I mentioned about how these increase volatility, but I do recognize that from some perspectives they could be looked at as managing volatility, and the worst case is just that you lose the amount spent to obtain the call. How bad that is depends on your expectations - is that an acceptable sunk cost or is success necessary?

I feel like I would not see it the same way I see my investments in penny stocks, though I recognize the costs could be similar, so maybe it could be seen that way.

I'm enforcing a ban on myself of NO OPTIONS until 2022 at the earliest, because I do not understand them enough to justify that kind of increased volatility, even if I might think that I do. The normal buy and sell of the market is enough for me to observe for now.

I think most people here don't trade options, but since they are so much more volatile there's more to talk about with them. Someone holding stocks long term doesn't need to trade frequently so they probably talk about stocks less frequently too. 4 months ago, there was barely any discussion of options in this topic - I think people are chasing higher returns. But really, it's basically gambling. I have a personal policy of no options because I really want to avoid the situation where someday, I decide there's a really good opportunity with an option and bet a life changing amount of money on it, and lose. It only takes one bad decision to undo years of returns. Just not worth putting myself in that kind of position and stress.

Other people may have a better handle on themselves, although I suspect most people who trade options don't understand just how high the volatility is for a while.

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Trust me I understand the volatility. I've 'lost' $2000 on my options so far and I've only got like $6000 in em. Most of these losses are in Athersys (which I think will go WAY over $2.50 by expiry but if it doesn't I don't want my money there) and Trevena (whcih I think will go WAY over $4 by expiry, but again, if it doesn't I don't want my money there)

But you control when you sell the contract, and opportunity cost matters too so while you can't lose as easily with actual stock, you can waste your time there which is basically a loss. Like if Chevron doesn't get over $80 in a year, which is less than a 20% increase at its current price, I don't really want my money sitting in there. I don't have enough money invested in it for that to feel good. I might as well just put the money in retirement or some crap. I could, instead of buying the contract, get like 12 shares of chevron, meaning if it gets to $80 I'd make like 100 bucks, but if I feel really confident it hits $80 why not just go for 10x returns instead. Yeah I might be wrong but I'm reasonably confident I won't be wrong, enough that I think enough of these option plays will hit to offset the losses on the misses.

But I'm the guy who lost $1000 on Trevena in a week and held until I gained $2000 on it. I'm not going to panic sell any of these. These were all bought with a purpose. A year is a long time for a stock just look at 5 year graphs for any growing company. The 1-2 week options, those are scary, but the 1-3 year options much less so. Just ignore the current returns.

Seriously though if you want to get into options buy some bio penny stocks first. That will harden your will to anything.

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Looks like another red day. If Trump wins, which wont be known for at least several days after Election Day, we might be looking at a 5% NASDAQ rise in one day.

Sunroof posted...

If Trump wins, which wont be known for at least several days after Election Day

Why? how long does it normally takes to know who won?
Unless of course you mean IF there are going to be..compliciations

Which I personally don't believe there will be

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Nanis23 posted...

Why? how long does it normally takes to know who won?
Unless of course you mean IF there are going to be..compliciations

Which I personally don't believe there will be

It will take longer to count the mail ballots, which are going to be way up this year. I don't think we're going to take nearly as long as it took to confirm Netanyahu's reelection though!

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Decided to gamble they'd avoid delisting without a reverse split (or a reverse split followed by a press release to spike the price) and on the NOVN rocket ship before it lifted off this time. Feels good man

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