Board 8 > Stock Topic 8

(+) Yeah! (+)

Apparently AZN is headquartered in Cambridge, England, and MRNA is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts. This feels like something out of a conspiracy theory...

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Both nice towns!

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Lopen posted...

moonroof get your $200,000 in here we will dominate the Earth

SOLO? Or SPCE?

Neither. TCDA. Although since it's clear it's probably not gonna rocket today maybe wait for the dip. Definitely seems oversold though don't expect the FDA beef to be that bad from what was said. Anything under $20 is probably free money though I'm waiting till 30 to consider selling

(Or ATHX what a monster run it's having today)

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Moonroof posted...

SOLO? Or SPCE?

He means TCDA I think. I'd say jump in on SPCE but your profits are already going to be 30% lower than they would have been 2 days ago.

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SOLO is no longer a great buy unless it dips into the low 2s again I think. Sputtered out. Long term I still like it and I'll keep an eye out for an EV fad spike again but yeah.

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Then again looks like TCDA has stabilized after that morning hype spike. This may be the best time to get in. Steady growth from here till we get an announcement they resolved the FDA beef I think (or announced they didn't but I don't think that'll be right away which is why I think this is free money through $20)

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SPCE over +15% for the day.

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Thanks for SPCE it is making me back all my peloton money

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TCDA midday purchase?

Well it's traded in the 25-40 range for years. What "FDA identified deficiencies" means is anyone's guess but given it's so late in the process and there was a lot of "this doesn't reflect a final decision" etc and there was no announced delay I feel like it's likely something relatively trifling and I think the market is thinking the same thing.

If you're risk averse just hold it a few dollars personally I'd just invest less than you usually do and go long on it. This could be a $30 stock super short term and a $50 stock relatively short term if the FDA thing doesn't matter much

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I did a little reshuffling to add to the AMTD position. Thanks to that and SPCE rocketing upwards, DAL + CAR is below 50% of my portfolio for the first time since May other that week where I was only holding LK.

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Like instead of investing say 25k and dumping when it gets to $20 for a profit of around 4k, invest 5k and hold long and profit 10k with much less risk.

But do what you wanna do. Do some research first and believe in it, then commit.

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I wish I could hold less positions, but still waiting for some stocks to come back up, hopefully

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Lopen posted...

Like instead of investing say 25k and dumping when it gets to $20 for a profit of around 4k, invest 5k and hold long and profit 10k with much less risk.

But do what you wanna do. Do some research first and believe in it, then commit.

Yeah, this. It's better to invest an amount where you're comfortable enough not to get shaken out quickly if the price moves either up or down. When you sell stock because you feel fear, you are giving up edge to people on the other side of the trade who are thinking rationally. And when you go all-in you're naturally going to feel a lot of fear.

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But of course you can increase your risk tolerance with more first hand research (or a really trusted second hand source) which is I think an undervalued aspect of everything

I had half my value in ATHX when it lost almost half its value in 10 minutes and because I knew the possible things that would cause that reaction and why it wasnt necessarily a long term problem, their pipeline, etc etc. So instead of losing money I ended up profiting cause their price returned to form and I added more shares low.

You bet I'm gonna read up more on TCDA in days to come to determine when I feel confident holding to but yeah even if it dropped to 14 or 13 with no news I'd still feel good about recovery. It going up makes me feel better about saying 20 is a lock though.

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Looks like no one knows what the exact reason is for their denial. Everything Im reading says to stay away until more is known?

Also, it's not well known, but there is some advantage to being a small-scale investor, in that you have a lot of opportunities in smaller companies that are just too small to make a difference to the bottom line for a big fund. You are also potentially playing against some of the worst investors out there (people who are gambling on stocks simply because there's action in the price). Like everyone here made money on LK I think but you bet there were people who bought at $5 and sold at $1.50......twice.

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Moonroof posted...

Looks like no one knows what the exact reason is for their denial. Everything Im reading says to stay away until more is known?

Well the thing is if you wait until more is known your profit margin drops dramatically because smart money is going to know before you and eat the lion's share of the cheap shares

Things to look into:

Potential of the company if the FDA thing is minor
Financial/development cushion of the company to recover if it ends up being major
Previous results to see likelihood of FDA thing being crippling, and would the FDA have only caught it now if it was

Personally I think the likelihood of it being minor seems much higher and good fundamentals and impending product are why the company was trading so high to begin with, but I'm going to look into it more while I hold.

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Alright. Ill make a more informed decision at 3:55pm.

Yeah, not knowing is exactly what gives you a profit opportunity. If you wait until everything is known the price will have already gone up by the time you get in. When others are basing their decisions on fear and you are not you gain an advantage over them. Of course it's risky, and you could lose, but you could also win. On average, when you take on more risk you get a higher average return because people are risk-averse and will pay a price (called risk premium) to avoid risk.


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For me it's mostly going to be whether I abandon ship with an extended period of no news and consistent price increases approaching the old levels, abandon before or after the earnings call in August which will almost certainly spell everything out, and what price point I sell and what percentage I sell (do I cash out or take the Lopen special of sell half at double to remove my initial risk but allow growth)

Ironically I think more of my research in the immediate is going to be around the FDA than Tricida itself.

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Note that the risk premium concept only applies where the person on the other side of the trade is lowering their risk. Effectively they are paying you to lower their risk. If you choose to artificially increase your risk (by using leverage), you generally don't get an improvement to your edge.

So here's an example. Let's say we have a biotech company. There's a 50% chance it'll have a successful test in which case it'll be worth $30 and a 50% chance of failure in which case it'll be worth $10. What's the price before the test results come out? Most likely, it'll be a little below $20. That's because you'd rather have $20 in dollars with no risk than a 50% chance of $30 and a 50$ chance of $10. If you have a lot of money at stake and not much risk tolerance (say, you are retired) you'd might even prefer $19 with no risk to this stock. Maybe even $18. Maybe lower!

So let's say the stock is trading at $19. You buy. Now you have a 50% chance of making $11 and a 50% chance of losing $9. That averages out to a gain of $1, or just over 5%. That's your risk premium, that the market is paying you for holding this stock through the news release about the test.

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AVCT keeps going up and it's scaring the hell out of me. Doubt I'll ever be able to buy at 3 again lmao selling so many shares at 2.75. When I pull out of GAN and LCA I'm putting all my profits back in it and in AVCT warrants. Man those warrants might be a better investment than the common stock.

Glad GAN surged today though and I averaged down at just the right time. Yeah, averaging down on companies you've researched is definitely a good strategy. But only like the three stocks you all know I love would I ever do that for.

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MRNA really having a day

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NKLA sunk below 50

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NKLA is Zynga part 2. Piggybacking off of Facebook/Tesla to crazy high valuations until people realize it has no profits and no ability to make profits that could justify the share price.

I actually kind of like SOLO. It may be a good buy now, and if it goes below $3 I think it'll look very attractive. I'd buy it but I have no idea about their product.

Same sort of deal with Amazon - if it falls some more it may be a good buy. I kinda don't think Monday was an all-time high. While there are a lot people touting it as a "buy and hold forever" stock and saying that it will never go down, which is a sign of an incoming top, the overall sentiment isn't that euphoric compared to some other stocks (just look at Tesla). Plus, it was trading stably between $1,500 and $2,000 or thereabouts for a year and a half from the September 2018 top to February 2020. $3,000 isn't that much higher than $2,000, percentagewise, and $2,000 was seen by the market as a fairly stable valuation. I think if it goes into blowoff top mode it can maybe briefly touch $5,000 before it bursts.

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Yeah I'll definitely get back into SOLO if it drops into low-mid 2s. I think there's a market there for the weird solo cars especially with the COVID isolation thing

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Apparently AMTD and SCHW are merging, and shareholders of both companies will get shares in the combined company when the merge closes. That must be why AMTD dropped 4% yesterday on no news - because SCHW reported earnings, and they were a bit disappointing. I might switch over to IBKR since I'm not sure I want to invest in SCHW and I wasn't intending to when I bought AMTD.

That said, still bullish on the whole sector. SCHW's earnings report shows big gains in the important areas, with 550k new clients not counting acquisitions and retail trading activity and total assets under management way up. The reason revenues haven't followed yet is that they very recently went to zero commissions and they of course lost out on a lot of commissions. That should be priced in at this point though - I don't think there's going to be a price war between brokerages on order flow and things like that because retail traders don't really see that, unlike the commission which is very obvious and used to be ruinous for small scale active traders.

In the future, they'll get better at extracting profit from customers without the commission, and the number of customers and the amount of money they're investing should increase. The average retail trader probably made like 30% last quarter and that's a lot better than the 9% per year that they've been told is an excellent return and you should pay big fees to a fund manager for achieving. They're going to transfer in money from funds they had put in mutual funds, index funds, and managed retirement accounts and manage their own investments.

Casino management has always known that the best thing that can happen for the house with a new player is for that player to win. If he loses he may never come back. If he wins, he'll come back, and bring more money. Same applies here, only the player actually can win long-term in the stock market, so they'll come back with a lot more money. By lowering the commission to 0 and catching a wave of retail trading right as the market goes on a tremendous run I think the brokerages are going to create customers for years.

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NKLA going into the nearest river tomorrow

Hoping for GOAT news from azn so I can feel bad about not making a 3:30 decision

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Nothing on azn yet huh

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I thought the news was might be ready in October

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All aboard the AZN train choo choo

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But I thought something was this morning

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Neon should I buy some asian

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I am slightly concerned that all the other bad companies are looking stronger ahead of the news still

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Oof, NKLA is down big today. Read something about the SPAC warrants can now be exercised and it sent the price tumbling. Below 40 right now if you think there's an opportunity. Alas, I'm eating a loss but I might ride the wave

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Moderna rocketed last week and got hit with overweight.

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Im going to start trickling in money into NKLA for a longer haul now.

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neonreaper posted...

Moderna rocketed last week and got hit with overweight.

It needs to stop dragging down my Novavax.

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I put in some MRNA (again) as well to hedge my bets and its been a pleasant morning for that. AZN not so much... maybe the vax news was already priced in and everyone thinks it's still gonna be Moderna long term.

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also I'd say INTC is probably a nice buy this morning

TSLA could explode even more this week if it hits benchmark for SP500. get ready to be annoyed with that

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So much for my dreams of AZN riches before lunch

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Of course amazon is going up nearly 5%

I regret my purchase of azn

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Tech and stay-at-home making a hard rebound today.

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And I blame neonreaper for it

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yeah but Im evil

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PTON going nuts today

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