Board 8 > Game of the Decade: 2010-2019 Contest Analysis Crew - Part 5

(+) Yeah! (+)

Hey everyone! The Contest Analysis Crew is back at it again, and this time, were going to write a lot of words about the second Game of the Decade Contest.

If youre new here, the Contest Analysis Crew has been running strong since 2004. Its a group of (self-proclaimed) contest experts that take a deep look at all of the matches in the Contest. We make predictions on who we think will win and how much percentage theyll receive. Its a lot of fun and I hope you enjoy the ride!

Current Guest List: Send write-ups to [email protected]

Dark Souls vs. Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain - ctes
Batman: Arkham City vs. The Last of Us - Agent M

The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim vs. Mario Kart 8 - DoctorJimmy133
Pokemon HeartGold / SoulSilver Version vs. NieR: Automata - ZeldaTP

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*~CREW STRANDING~*

...

Moltar: Wait, why is the story starting now? I havent made it to Indie Knot City yet.



Moltar: Huh? Whats this? I...cant move. Theres some sort of black goo-like substance leaking out of the ground thats trapping me. Oh God, and now the sky is turning gray and rain is falling from the sky! What the heck is going on?

???: Well, well, well, look what the cat dragged in.

Moltar: Hey you, I dont know why youre wearing a mask, but help me! Cant you see Im trapped here? And...why are hands grabbing my legs and trying to pull me into the ground?!

Masked Person: Didnt they tell you its dangerous out here kid? You shouldnt be wandering around outside. You might get caught by a BT.

Moltar: Ahhh, its swallowing me in the ground! Noooo.

Masked Person: Tsk tsk, what a shame, another one lost.





Moltar: Ugh...where am I...

Moltar: ...it looks like Im...underwater? What the



Moltar: I see something in the distance, what does it say...Let me move a little closer and...what? All these games suck? Whats this about?

Indistinct Voices: This is such a trash game! It isnt even worthy of being here.

Indistinct Voices: No youre trash! And stuff you like sucks!

Indistinct Voices: My favorite game is the only good one!

Moltar: Oh my this is terrible get me out of here.

...

Moltar: Wait, now whats this? Rate my waifu?

Indistinct Voices: Shes the best!

Indistinct Voices: No, I like her better! Yours is awful!

Moltar: Ughhh what is going on get me out of here.

...

Indistinct Voices: You suck!

Indistinct Voices: This is absolute trash!

Indistinct Voices: Politics!

Indistinct Voices: Hate speech!

Indistinct Voices: Hentai rallies!

Moltar: I feel like Im drowning...I just need to silence my thoughts and block out all this craziness. I just need to close my eyes, cover my earsand focus.





Moltar: Whoa, thats actually worked. Im back in the outside world, and the sky is clear and that black stuff is gone. Looks like everythings back to normal.



Moltar: Hey you! Dont walk away, why didnt you help me?!

Masked Person: Oh?! You actually made it out of there? Well color me surprised, maybe you do have what it takes to survive out here.

Moltar: Who are you? What just happened to me?

Masked Person: Hmm, I dont really have a name. You can just consider me as...a Guest in your little journey.

EPISODE 4

GUEST

Guest: And what just happened to you? You managed to escape from a BT.

Moltar: Thats what a BT was? It was terrible, like...an actual nightmare. Just people yelling at each other and putting everyone and everything down over the most stupid of subjects. It was like going on a message board and reading a Bad Topic...wait a minute.

Guest: Ha, you catch on quick. Theres a lot of BTs out there, and most people that travel these parts get swallowed up in them and never escape. The fact that you did...makes you special.

Moltar: Im special? That sounds crazy...but maybe thats why Allen was saying Im the only one that can do this task. I must have some kind of power that protects me from BTs.

Guest: Alright dont go thinking youre some sort of anime protagonist now. You just have a stronger will than most. What are you even doing traveling out here anyway?

Moltar: Well...I was given a task to reconnect GameFAQs by delivering packages to key facilities.

Guest: Ah, I see, youre a transporter. Well, Ive got something for you, if you dont mind. Here, take this.



Moltar: Its just a piece of paper that says EE on it.

Guest: When the time comes, youll know when to deliver it.

Moltar: ...oookay.

Guest: Now you go run along. Sounds like youve got an important job to do.

Moltar: Yeah



Moltar: Well theres one more thing. Why are you wearing a mask but still decided to tell me who you ar-Oh, theyre gone.



Moltar: What a mysterious person.

*~CREW STRANDING~*

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I see what you did there
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oh god I'm still out there

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Crew Stranding should win a Tony.

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wow my picks today are goddamn perfect, I'll never have a day this good again

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sonic sucks

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Im not feeling very comfortable with this Portal performance

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The Mana Sword posted...

sonic sucks

Addendum to this true statement: Persona 5 good

Its result against Civ 5 (through Black Flag) was really, really good

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transcience posted...

Im not feeling very comfortable with this Portal performance

Yeah, RDR2 is already stalling it out.
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Which everyone loves to see.

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Portal 2 had me worried for a while, but I think it might be good.
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Previous Results: Witcher puts up 60% on SMG2, which was like everyone's magic number for it. God of War also has no problem beating New Vegas.

Crew Predictions: 100/106

Next Round Thoughts: Witcher's looked like the stronger game all contest, and it's been putting up big numbers on non-Nintendo competition. This could get ugly.

Crew Prediction Challenge:

Moltar: 98
Kleenex: 98
Leonhart: 94
transience: 94
Guest: 85

Crew Accuracy Challenge: transience gets the point for Witcher and GoW.

Moltar: 29
transience: 22
Leonhart: 17
Kleenex: 17
Guest: 17 (spooky96, Hbthebattle (3), Black Turtle, ctes (2), MetalmindStats (2), MechanicalWall (2), Kotetsu, pjbasis, Nintendogs, SuperNiceDog, FFDragon, Sir Chris)

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~*Posts from the Crew Archive*~

Division 6: Round 2 - Match 86 (5) Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain vs. (4) Dark Souls

Moltars Analysis

Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain
Round 1 - 54.67% vs Perfect Dark

Dark Souls
Round 1 - 66.70% vs Sid Meier's Civilization V

So MGS kind of hasnt looked good at all this contest. A lot of people saw 55% on Perfect Dark as disappointing, but I guess I was anticipating a disappointing performance because I wasnt surprised.

After both entrants had their Round 1 matches, I was still feeling alright about MGSV here, but I dont know anymore. Yeah, MGS has its series fans, but after 4 and 5, it looks like a segment of the fans have moved on from the series. Dark Souls and its brethren games feel more in favor with the general public right now.

Im thinking Dark Souls takes it in a close one.

Moltars Bracket: Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain

Moltars Prediction: Dark Souls 52%

Transiences Analysis

I have Dark Souls in my bracket. Bloodborne showed that the Souls series was decent and Metal Gear 4/5 have been underwhelming for sure. Add in that new games outside of Undertale are bombing and it's kind of easy to pick Dark Souls here.

Metal Gear has some brand name loyalty that could rear its ugly head if Dark Souls isn't widely known or respected. I wouldn't be super surprised to see that. I don't know though.. I think the Dark Souls name gets around pretty well these days and it's a more respected game than Metal Gear Solid V. I feel comfortable picking it.

Some people have talked about a potential rally but I think the source -- some person rallying for Undertale being in the Dark Souls fan community -- is more than a little sketchy. I did say pre-contest though that Dark Souls over LTTP was as good of a crazy upset/rally pick than anything though, so we'll see!

transience's prediction: Dark Souls with 54.68%

Leonharts Analysis

Dark Souls was one of my upset specials pre-contest, and nothing we saw round one dissuaded me from believing it can win here. Its hard to tell how much Dark Souls win over Civilization V was really worth, but at least it got a pretty high percentage, unlike MGSV against Perfect Dark. I suppose the only thing really having me nervous about Dark Souls is how bad Demons Souls looked against Half-Life 2, which just got rocked by Metroid Prime. Then again, we saw the gap between Persona 3 and Persona 4 is apparently humongous, so I guess I should hope its the same here!

Leonharts Vote: Metal Gear Solid V

Leonharts Prediction: Dark Souls with 52.50%

Kleenexs Analysis

Metal Gear did not look great last round. MGSV especially really disappointed against a game that quite frankly isnt worth a whole lot. The upside is that it makes this round way more interesting than it could have been if Metal Gear was at full strength. Dark Souls did well enough on an even weaker opponent than Perfect Dark so I my mind this match is probably pretty close to even without taking anything else into account. I do think, though, that in the case of something close, Dark Souls is a huge favorite. The fanbase is way more rabid than Metal Gear could ever hope and I would not be surprised to see somewhat of a mini-rally here if need be. I could be totally wrong about this, but Im feeling pretty good about Dark Souls here.

Dark Souls with 53%

Guests Analysis - Luster Soldier

After the somewhat disappointing performance from MGSV in round 1 and new games generally bombing left and right, I have to back out of choosing MGSV to win another match even if I might have it in my bracket. I am a bit skeptical of MGSV winning another match considering how new the game is.

Dark Souls put up a good showing in round 1 against Civilization V, proving that it has a chance of winning another match. Dark Souls has also been around longer than MGSV and is a last-gen game, so Dark Souls should have a higher playrate than MGSV. That gives Dark Souls one advantage over MGSV in this match.

Luster Soldier's Bracket: Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain
Luster Soldier's Prediction: Dark Souls - 53.18%

Crew Consensus: DS played MGSV like a damn fiddle
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good job crew

that match was a 50/50 toss up in the oracle but MGSV was a large guru favorite

that would be a cool feature. this one makes us look good but there are some real bad ones out there that would expose us for the frauds that we are.

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Round 3 Dark Souls vs. Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain

Moltars Analysis

Dark Souls
Round 1 82.99% vs. Hotline Miami
Round 2 77.34% vs. Rocket League

Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain
Round 1 72.51% vs. Dead Cells
Round 2 57.25% vs. Yakuza 0

Lets get this out of the way now: https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6136-best-game-ever-day-22-round-2-metal-gear-solid-v-vs-dark

This match was shortly after MGSV came out, so it was at its strongest then. Time has not been kind to this game or the MGS series on GameFAQs as of late, so I wouldnt expect it to hold up as well now.

Dark Souls has also grown tremendously in appreciation and as a franchise since then. Theres a lot of talk about Dark Souls now being strong enough to hang with Witcher and Skyrim, and a big performance here can validate that.

Its hard to say what qualifies as a good performance here, since we dont have much of a read on MGSVs previous opponents. Low 60s should be fine, and high-60s/70 would be very impressive, so Ill land somewhere in the middle.

Moltars Bracket: Dark Souls

Moltars Prediction: Dark Souls 65%

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transiences Analysis

Boy, let me tell you how much I don't respect MGS5. It's in there with Sonic Mania and KH3, those games from franchises that were once good before they suddenly weren't. Dark Souls beat this game with ease in 2015 and it's going to be so much worse this time.

It'd be a cool story if Yakuza 0 were a legit game but I'm not feeling it. That match showed that MGS5 is just a weak, weak game. Dark Souls, on the other hand, is super legit, one of the very few games that gets brought up every time someone talks about game of the decade. Dark Souls isn't just going to beat MGS5, it's going to annihilate it. (Watch the entire crew go above me here again.)

transience's prediction: Dark Souls with 69.54%

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Leonharts Analysis

We already saw this match back in 2015, when Metal Gear Solid V was brand new and Dark Souls was still making its rise to stardom. Even back then, Dark Souls won 55/45, and these games should have only moved in opposite directions since then. Dark Souls has been deemed perhaps the most influential game of the decade, which probably matters for the purposes of this contest. The Metal Gear Solid franchise is all but dead, and MGSV is the scapegoat for that due to its departure from the norm and the fact that its blatantly unfinished.

Im not sure what a good number is here for Dark Souls, other than that it needs to be more than it was in 2015 and it needs to be more than what The Last of Us does in the other match. That being said, I think Metal Gear Solid V has actually done a bit better than I anticipated, so maybe it hasnt dropped off as much as I originally thought.

Leonharts Vote: Metal Gear Solid V

Leonharts Prediction: Dark Souls with 59.79%
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Kleenexs Analysis

Not too much to say about this one. MGSV was never all that strong to begin with, and it ended up looking really bad against Yakuza. That 77% Yakuza pulled against The Witness turns out is far less impressive than it seemed, so the most likely scenario is that Yakuza is actually just as weak as we thought. I dont have a ton of faith in Rocket League being super strong either, but it was still a good performance for Dark Souls, which is going to win this division without too much trouble.

Kleenexs Prediction: Dark Souls with 62%

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Guests Analysis ctes

This will be our only actual repeat match I'm pretty certain. Dark Souls won it, but MGSV was the heavy board favorite precontest! IIRC people were more split about it after round 1, but it still shows how things
change. Almost no one backed MGSV to have flipped that and for good reason! This is all about how much Dark Souls wins by and it always was. Unless it's very close, Dark Souls has nothing to worry about next round because The Last of Us hasn't looked all too good, but it needs to do well here to stand a chance against Skyrim. I don't think MGSV is much worse than five years ago. Even if there's some mixed feelings about it and Konami has gone downhill, the franchise is still loved. It's not like things are much different than five years ago anyway.

Dark Souls, however, should be stronger. It seems like Soulsborne as a whole is better. The games have gathered a lot of respect throughout the decade. We've seen this during the contest already. Still, I have a hard time seeing Dark Souls at elite levels. It might not need much of a boost to best The Last of Us, but it should probably be happy it wasn't the #1 seed to be given Xenoblade or perhaps even God of War (or Odyssey of course, but that was intentional). I think it will improve itself from last time where it got 55.4%, but I don't think it shoots much above 60% and I think it needs to go a good bit past for me to actually consider it a threat to Skyrim.

Dark Souls - 60.68%
Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain 39.32%

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Crew Consensus: Punished MGSV has such a lust for revenge, but Dark Souls plays it like a damn fiddle.

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Skyrim gets 68% on MGSV in 2015.

Dark Souls needs to do at least that if it wants to have good chances at beating Skyrim, imo. Because Skyrim may have fallen but so should MGSV.

if there's a game here that's fallen, it's mgs5, not skyrim or dark souls

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WHOOOOOOOOOo

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transience posted...

if there's a game here that's fallen, it's mgs5, not skyrim or dark souls

I feel like people were entrenched in their positions on MGSV in 2015 and it doesn't feel like people have changed much from it. I can see it holding up better than I originally anticipated. I'd take it over KH3 or Sonic Mania, if nothing else.

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So for MGS fans which is the order of the best games of the franchise? Out of all 5 main games.

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Safer_777 posted...

So for MGS fans which is the order of the best games of the franchise? Out of all 5 main games.

imo: 3>1>2>5>4

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There was a topic where it was discussed recently, but my ranking of the six main games is 3 > 2 > PW > 1 > 4 > 5.

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Round 3 Batman: Arkham City vs. The Last of Us

Moltars Analysis

Batman: Arkham City
Round 1 54.46% vs. Xenoblade Chronicles 2
Round 2 59.82% vs. Bioshock Infinite

The Last of Us
Round 1 81.85% vs. Crusader Kings II
Round 2 63.28% vs. Diablo III

Seeing 60% on Bioshock Infinite vs. 63% on Diablo 3 in such close proximity raises an eyebrow. I still cant get that sub-70% from Diablo on VLR out of my head, but maybe Im underrating VLR.

Anyway, I think TLOU has the respect among the non-Nintendo/Square voters to kind of play hierarchy here against Batman. Neither game is really this sites kind of game, and people that have played both talk up TLOU way more than Arkham City. I cant really see Last of Us impressing here, but Id be kind of surprised if it dropped this match.

Moltars Bracket: The Last of Us

Moltars Prediction: The Last of Us 55%

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transiences Analysis

I mean, I guess there's an argument that Last of Us could be in danger here? I don't really think a lot of Batman. I think it's better than Spider Man, yeah, but that's not a high bar. It took out a mediocre Xeno game and a faded Bioshock Infinite. I'm not totally convinced that Batman beats Diablo 3? I dunno.

I don't think much of Last of Us (or any game in this division outside of Dark Souls), but it's not going to struggle with Batman.

transience's prediction: The Last of Us with 58.89%

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Leonharts Analysis

The Last of Us has put up two disappointing performances so far, and most people consider a loss to Dark Souls next round to be a foregone conclusion. There are even some rumblings about it losing to Arkham City here, but I wouldnt go that far. Yes, the Diablo III performance was pretty bad, so Im not expecting a decisive victory here, but Im not sure BioShock Infinite is any better at this point. I guess I wouldnt be entirely shocked if Batman pulled off the upset here because of how underwhelming TLOU has been so far, but Arkham City hasnt exactly been knocking it out of the park either. It hasnt shown me enough in its two matches for me to pick it here.

Leonharts Vote: The Last of Us

Leonharts Prediction: The Last of Us with 54.31%
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Kleenexs Analysis

Batman is probably slightly stronger than I originally have it credit for, even if I think Bioshock is not that great. Same with the Last of Us. Have I mentioned this division sucks? The Last of Us is going to win, but itll probably look bad in the process and then lose to Dark Souls next round and then we can thankfully not have to talk about this division again for like two weeks.

Kleenexs Prediction: The Last of Us with 54.50%

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Guests Analysis Agent M

TLOU kind of disappointed last round. Diablo III has enough name value and series popularity to not completely fold, but from what I gathered, it received mixed reception upon release. I can't imagine it would have been getting any respect votes for being one of the decade's defining games.

TLOU, on the other hand, has an argument for being in that category. It was nominated as a 2 seed, and it looked pretty solid in the last games contest. It was supposed to be competing with Dark Souls for this division. It's a top-selling game that most people have probably heard of, but where does it actually rank in terms of favourites? GTA V showed that mass exposure can only carry you so far in this setting.

Batman: Arkham City had no trouble with BioShock Infinite, a match I personally expected to be a lot closer. Batman is cool and popular, so I'm guessing Arkham City will collect votes from people who haven't played either game. It might also get respect votes for being a widely acclaimed game based on a superhero. How many mediocre ones have come and gone? For those reasons, I don't see Arkham City crumbling in tougher matchups.

I want to think that BioShock Infinite would edge out Diablo III, but this is just a vague approximation based on absolutely nothing. My general feeling is that neither of those games would win by a lot against one another, which means my general feeling is that TLOU/Arkham City is going to be a lot closer than I originally thought.

TLOU has a certain style that might not be universally appealing. It has a slow pace of play; the storytelling and atmosphere are more of a priority. You're generally encouraged to avoid gunfights. The action is not this game's strength. That might be too big of a flaw for some people, who would liken it
to an interactive movie. I feel like its subdued gameplay could ultimately keep it from the upper echelon of the bracket.

I haven't played Arkham City (Arkham Asylum is sitting on my shelf though, ready to be played). I'm guessing it's more gameplay-oriented and would be favoured by people who value that above all else.

I still believe TLOU is the favourite here; voters might just give it enough credit for what it is. But I'm legitimately worried about what's going to happen when the poll starts.

The Last of Us - 52.88%
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Crew Consensus: Batman isnt prepared for The Last of Us.

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yeah I thought people might go real low on Last of Us here. I won't be surprised if it puts up like 63% or something.

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Batman > TLOU doesn't pass the eye test and that's the main reason I didn't pick it but Diablo III > Batman would be crazy

bring your estimation of superhero games off the floor
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So MGS 3 is the best? I always thought it was the first one. I guess the first is the most popular one.

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we'll talk in an hour

(I like Arkham City a lot)

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like you're basically saying TLOU would beat Smash if you think it could outdo the Diablo III percentage and Batman's still stronger than Spider-Man
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Safer_777 posted...

So MGS 3 is the best? I always thought it was the first one. I guess the first is the most popular one.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6170-best-game-ever-day-36-division-viii-final-metal-gear-solid
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you know I'm not big on Smash, don't tempt me

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Oh. So fine. Still strange than the 2 most recent MGS games are considered the worst.

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2015 stats project Batman to get 51% on Bioshock and 46% on Last of Us.

I still don't think Batman wins (Bioshock has fallen a lot), but this could be embarrassingly close.

also I was flirting with a perfect P5 prediction for most of the match before the day vote brought it down
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Safer_777 posted...

Oh. So fine. Still strange than the 2 most recent MGS games are considered the worst.

MGS4 is weird. In 2009 it was really strong. I think it was clearly ahead of 2 in 10, but had fallen quite a bit in 2015. That one is the most difficult to place for sure.

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I wouldn't say "clearly" ahead of MGS2 considering they put up similar performances on SotC.

Yes, I get that SotC probably gained strength as it went along, but still!
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I do expect there to be a bandwagon already then, but I suppose you're right.

I mostly based that on talk about the games though. For years, it clearly felt like the popular opinion was that MGS2 was the weak link. That seemed to chance at some point.

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Yeah, I would agree with you that MGS4 would probably have won head to head had SotC not gotten in the way, but I'm just saying I wouldn't say it was guaranteed.
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I'll admit bad phrasing and agree with that, though I did pretty good about a 4 > 2 pick then. Don't think I ever fully understood why the general opinion about 4 seemed to change so.

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ctesjbuvf posted...
I'll admit bad phrasing and agree with that, though I did pretty good about a 4 > 2 pick then. Don't think I ever fully understood why the general opinion about 4 seemed to change so.

The honeymoon phase wore off.

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yeah TLOU is in trouble

it should have brackets
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oh jeeze, I wont give up on this one because western game but last of us is real embarrassing

dark souls though

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https://static0.srcdn.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Castlevania-II-Curse-Warning-Screen.jpg

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this is what you get for underestimating superhero games
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nah, for overestimating last of us if anything

if arkham city makes a match of it with dark souls, well talk

(I still think Last of Us wins, well see)

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you've said it's garbage for the last couple rounds so how did you still overestimate it
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it is! but thats compared to board expectations that it was about 50:50 to beat dark souls

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This match is surprising if you limit it to pre-contest notions (I never would have picked Batman), but after seeing some results the Bioshock/Diablo 3 comparison made Last of Us' easy victory much more questionable.

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imagine Last of Us struggling with Xenoblade 2 in round 1

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After the first round, I thought the most embarrassing pick in my bracket was xenoblade 2 > last of us. Maybe it's not so outrageous after all.



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