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ZeldaTPLink 05/05/20 11:40:09 AM #454: |
If you assume constant Shovel Knight and constant Minecraft from 2015, Odyssey is projected to get 60.55% on Smash.
But there's the thing, every time you assume constant Minecraft, crazy results happen. If you take that and assume Three Houses this year is as strong as FE Awakening was in 2015, you get Xenoblade beating Smash. And Three Houses could be stronger. Minecraft is stronger than 2015, that's what I'm saying. But how much stronger is anyone's guess, since there is a big gap from that 60.55% to 50%. Not to mention Mario may have SFF'd SK. Not to mention Mario vs Smash is also SFF itself. But yeah. Don't use Minecraft 2015 stats. Just don't. ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Leonhart4 05/05/20 11:50:39 AM #455: |
Or Minecraft was underrated in 2015, as I've been saying.
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transience 05/05/20 12:18:58 PM #456: |
the more I think about this match, the more I think that even if Odyssey is ahead, it'll lose due to rallying. I'd rather have Smash, I think, but that's just scars from the CT match.
--- xyzzy ... Copied to Clipboard!
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The Mana Sword 05/05/20 12:19:57 PM #457: |
I don't know if the Ultimate fanbase is as fervent as Melee's to need to worry about a rally.
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SuperNiceDog 05/05/20 12:20:34 PM #458: |
Great great write ups guys on what is one of the biggest matches of the contest. In particular kudos to @ZeldaTPLink , @transience . I still believe Ultimate will win this match.
When I went over to a friends place to play Switch games in Dec 2018, Smash Ultimate was the first game we all played. Odyssey was an after-thought. We played it after like 2 hrs of Smash Ultimate. We played Mario Odyssey for 15 min. I could barely remember the name of the game, just generically knew it was Mario. I still think this lingers to this day. Smash with 51% --- SuperNiceChao about to win the Oracle 2020! TsunamiXXVIII and me will destroy all you noobs ... Copied to Clipboard!
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snake_5036 05/05/20 12:24:25 PM #459: |
The Mana Sword posted...
I don't know if the Ultimate fanbase is as fervent as Melee's to need to worry about a rally.If Ultimate needs a rally, I'm sure some top Ultimate pros will be fine with throwing a bone toward the game. M2K would probably also be fine with throwing out a link, though he doesn't really play much Smash at all these days. Of the Smash pros, I only know of ZeRo and M2K that have accounts on this site. --- You felt your sins weighing on your neck. ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Leonhart4 05/05/20 12:26:17 PM #460: |
Yeah, Ultimate doesn't have the complex that Melee does, but it definitely has a deeper well to draw from than Odyssey.
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transience 05/05/20 12:27:04 PM #461: |
there's also half the votes of the 2015 match that it rolled over with ease.
--- xyzzy ... Copied to Clipboard!
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SuperNiceDog 05/05/20 12:36:54 PM #462: |
Master Moltar posted...
Smash Ultimate is the same thing. Its big selling point is quite literally "Everyone is here", a cavalcade of everything you could possibly want from a Smash game. But it's not breaking any ground here. When you pick up Smash Ultimate and fight someone for the first time, you immediately know how to use every character because it's the same s*** you've been doing in Smash for a dozen years. There are new single player modes and those are fun, but not many people are buying Smash so they can do the single player. Some exist, sure, but it's not the big draw. This is my thoughts exactly on Smash Ultimate when I played it. Just felt the same. Yet I still think it will win. --- SuperNiceChao about to win the Oracle 2020! TsunamiXXVIII and me will destroy all you noobs ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Surskit 05/05/20 1:35:05 PM #463: |
SuperNiceDog posted...
Great great write ups guys on what is one of the biggest matches of the contest. In particular kudos to @ZeldaTPLink , @transience . I still believe Ultimate will win this match.I'm sure your experience playing a multiplayer game with a friend over a year ago is a faithful reflection of the way GameFAQs users vote in these polls. --- .-#Elements of Water#-. ... Copied to Clipboard!
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ctesjbuvf 05/05/20 1:43:41 PM #464: |
MechanicalWall posted...
Whatever wins here is probably going to do so by more than a point or two, that much I'm comfortable saying. I have Mario winning 57% in my Second Chance bracket and that was me being conservative. Mario vs. Samus in 18 showed that isn't necessarily the case. Maybe the fanbase is just truly split. --- Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to Advokaiser, the winner of the Character Battle X guru contest. ... Copied to Clipboard!
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adamko 05/05/20 1:46:26 PM #465: |
melee fanboys hate the success ultimate is having so they'd probably vote for odyssey
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_SJimW_ 05/05/20 1:48:12 PM #466: |
snake_5036 posted...
If Ultimate needs a rally, I'm sure some top Ultimate pros will be fine with throwing a bone toward the game. M2K would probably also be fine with throwing out a link, though he doesn't really play much Smash at all these days. Neither of those people even have super favorable opinions on Ultimate --- RIP in Pieces GamerJM, 2007-2015. You will be missed. #UnPermabanJim ... Copied to Clipboard!
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snake_5036 05/05/20 1:50:39 PM #467: |
I don't know what Melee fans you're talking about, the only big name competitive player that still speaks out about Ultimate is Leffen and he's always bitching about something anyway, Ultimate or not
Non-pro Melee fans are generally pretty chill people in my experiences. Neither of those people even have super favorable opinions on UltimateThey don't have negative ones either, just the usual grievances about Smash's online still sucking ass. Which we all have >_> --- You felt your sins weighing on your neck. ... Copied to Clipboard!
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transience 05/05/20 2:04:54 PM #468: |
Smash loses because of covid factor because everyone is forced to live with Ultimate's awful netcode. I like it
--- xyzzy ... Copied to Clipboard!
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MechanicalWall 05/05/20 2:12:44 PM #469: |
ctesjbuvf posted...
Mario vs. Samus in 18 showed that isn't necessarily the case. Maybe the fanbase is just truly split.What I know is that the Switch has had extremely high hardware-software attachment rates for Nintendo's first party games (they always do but even more than normal); I would assume there's even higher overlap than usual between people who own both these games Based on my perusal of the boards, it feels like while interest in Ultimate is always high, more people have actually played Mario Odyssey for an appreciable amount of time. When it comes time to throw down I can see a lot more people backing the chunky single player game over the game they only bust out once in a blue moon. This is all circumstantial evidence at best, of course. Allen is definitely throwing red meat here for the people who want to see these head-to-head Nintendo matches. --- If you're only on this board to whine about "SJWs", please redirect whatever you type on to the nearest trash can. And hop in after it. ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Leonhart4 05/05/20 2:14:19 PM #470: |
This match demonstrates that we can spend a lot of words talking about something none of us are sure about.
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Leonhart4 05/05/20 2:19:05 PM #472: |
Both pics can be ugly for different reasons. I don't like that art style.
But there's no way it's actually hurting ME2. --- ... Copied to Clipboard!
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MechanicalWall 05/05/20 2:20:40 PM #473: |
Leonhart4 posted...
This match demonstrates that we can spend a lot of words talking about something none of us are sure about. Well it's one of the last sexy matches in bracket. After this I don't feel there's much left to debate. --- If you're only on this board to whine about "SJWs", please redirect whatever you type on to the nearest trash can. And hop in after it. ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Leonhart4 05/05/20 2:22:34 PM #474: |
MechanicalWall posted...
Well it's one of the last sexy matches in bracket. After this I don't feel there's much left to debate. Oh, there's plenty left to debate but this is the only big Nintendo vs. Nintendo match in the bracket. --- ... Copied to Clipboard!
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The Mana Sword 05/05/20 2:23:48 PM #475: |
Yeah, the bottom half of the bracket is almost entirely debatable matches from the QFs on.
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MechanicalWall 05/05/20 2:23:53 PM #476: |
I'm sure people will want to debate certain matches... for the sake of debating.
--- If you're only on this board to whine about "SJWs", please redirect whatever you type on to the nearest trash can. And hop in after it. ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Leonhart4 05/05/20 2:26:56 PM #477: |
MechanicalWall posted...
I'm sure people will want to debate certain matches... for the sake of debating. And I'm sure you'll be there to tell us how obvious those results were...after the matches are over. --- ... Copied to Clipboard!
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MechanicalWall 05/05/20 2:29:46 PM #478: |
Not sure what you're implying.
I have a pretty good record of saying things were obvious when I had actually called them well in advance. Certainly have a good record of being humble when I'm wrong! --- If you're only on this board to whine about "SJWs", please redirect whatever you type on to the nearest trash can. And hop in after it. ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Master Moltar 05/05/20 4:46:15 PM #479: |
Round 4 Persona 4 Golden vs. Xenoblade Chronicles
Moltars Analysis Persona 4 Golden Round 1 77.77% vs. FTL: Faster Than Light Round 2 50.83% vs. Red Dead Redemption Round 3 51.07% vs. Grand Theft Auto V Xenoblade Chronicles Round 1 78.43% vs. Splatoon 2 Round 2 73.32% vs. Overwatch Round 3 59.64% vs. Fire Emblem: Three Houses aint no stopping this xenoblade train Persona 4 Golden has done really well to get this far, as beating RDR and GTAV is no small task. P4 was struggling with Dead Rising and getting 30% on RE4 at the start of the decade! It has come a long way, but Xenoblade, unfortunately for it, has powered up just a little bit more. Three Houses might not be as strong as I thought pre-contest, but I still think its around as strong as RDR and GTAV. If Xenoblade had no problem with Three Houses, it shouldnt have any problem with a game that barely got past the Rockstar games. Percentage-wise, if Xenoblade did exert a little bit of SFF over Fire Emblem last round, this could be closer. If FE:TH would have also beaten anything from the top half of the division, then this could be a 60%+ rout. I think the former scenario is more likely. Moltars Bracket: yikes Moltars Prediction: Xenoblade Chronicles 56% ____________________________________________________________________________ transiences Analysis This one feels obvious - Xenoblade has just had better performances, or at least it seems that way. Xenoblade really rocked Fire Emblem and had round 1 and 2 performances that were pretty overwhelming, and Xenoblade 2's close loss to Arkham City also suggested that its big brother is legit. It's hard to think that a game that squeaked by GTA and RDR would have a problem here. That said.. what is this uneasy feeling that I have? Make no doubt about it - Xenoblade and Persona is a SFF match through and through. Those two franchises, along with Dragon Quest, are the biggest JRPGs of the last decade. You know how Mass Effect 2 randomly blew up Fallout 4? That's the feeling that I get with this one. Persona is probably the bigger franchise, but there's also a remake stigma around P4G. We had 3 ports/remakes in the bracket and we have 3 remakes remaining in our top 16, so maybe that doesn't actually matter? I'm picking Xenoblade here because it would be hard to justify anything else, but if Persona suddenly throws a cog in Xenoblade's incredible run, I won't be super surprised. I also won't be surprised if Xenoblade just demolishes Persona because, like I said, this is an SFF match. transience's prediction: Xenoblade Chronicles with 53.51% ____________________________________________________________________________ Leonharts Analysis This is probably the most GameFAQs division finals matchup we have, with two JRPGs that have gradually grown in respect and prestige over the course of the last decade. You probably wouldnt see this as a division final in a Game of the Decade on any other site unless its a JRPG fansite, especially when you look at some of the big name games they beat on the way here, like Grand Theft Auto V, Red Dead Redemption, and Overwatch. Honestly, I should have known this is what it would have come down to. In a division that was widely considered the most unpredictable, we got the most obvious outcome! Wish Id had the guts to believe in Persona 4 Golden a little more! Anyway, these games have taken different routes to get here. Persona 4 Golden has narrowly edged out two big name games in consecutive rounds, while Xenoblade has destroyed everything in its path. This feels like a clear end of the line for Persona 4, but is there an actual argument to be made for it winning here? I think your best bet is just to argue that Xenoblade has been overperforming for reasons that wouldnt be repeatable here, such as Nintendo SFF with Splatoon 2 and Three Houses. It would also require Overwatch to be utter garbage, which is probably the easiest part of this to believe! That being said, as much as Id love to believe Persona 4 Golden can win this, I think its asking a bit too much to expect Xenoblade to have three fluky overperformances by sheer coincidence. At that point, its just a pattern proving that Xenoblade is legit. If P4G had managed to be more convincing against GTAV and RDR, Id be willing to entertain it, but theres just no way Xenoblade drops a match to either of those games. I think Persona 4 will hold up well (barring some weird JRPG SFF, I guess), but Xenoblade should claim the division crown. Leonharts Vote: Persona 4 Golden Leonharts Prediction: Xenoblade Chronicles with 55.44% ____________________________________________________________________________ Kleenexs Analysis This is one of the more straightforward matches of the round. Persona 4 has had a great, exciting run to make it this far, but Xenoblade has just had this divisions number. You need to do some real funny stuff with stats in order to twist this in a way so that Persona 4 has a chance, and I dont think Im ready to warp reality that much yet. I will say, I think Xenoblade is probably being a little overrated because I think its competition thus far hasnt been particularly great. Splatoon 2, Overwatch and Fire Emblem isnt exactly a murderers row of games (note: please see my ME2/RE2 writeup for my thoughts on Fire Emblem, which may possibly have been proven false at the time of posting). Im actually expecting Persona to put up a reasonable fight here, but the odds are likely too stacked against it to come out with a victory unless theres some weird momentum rally thing...but Xenoblade doesnt feel like a game thats susceptible to succumbing to such a thing. The second nail in my Guru bracket - if its not already dead by the time this match happens. Kleenexs Prediction: Xenoblade Chronicles with 54.50% ____________________________________________________________________________ Guests Analysis Hbthebattle Fun fact: the only way I win Guru is if P4G pulls off the upset here... In other words, I'm fucked. P4G has struggled with almost all of its opponents, and Xenoblade has gotten to dole out massive SFF beatdowns and blow out Overwatch. Xenobade won't have as much SFF here as it did against FE3H, so it should do a little better, but there's almost no chance it loses this. Xenoblade with 57.75% ____________________________________________________________________________ Crew Consensus: Xenoblade casts Hama on Persona for the kill. --- Moltar Status: hype Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ ... Copied to Clipboard!
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DoctorJimmy133 05/05/20 4:50:37 PM #480: |
The only way I can see P4G winning is if theres some sort of Holy Shit This Game Beat GTAV bandwagon boost that SMRPG also got.
--- Advokaiser is the man. Congrats! ... Copied to Clipboard!
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The Mana Sword 05/05/20 4:54:58 PM #481: |
I really need to start wildly over or under-predicting things if I want any shot at accuracy points anymore
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LinkMarioSamus 05/05/20 4:58:35 PM #482: |
I get the feeling P4G already benefited from a slight bandwagon to upset GTAV, but Xenoblade should be on an entirely different level.
Also few have Xenoblade itself in Round 4, so that should mitigate much in the way of any bandwagon P4G could have. --- "Nothing I could do!" -Darksydephil ... Copied to Clipboard!
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transience 05/05/20 5:07:02 PM #483: |
phew, crew curse is the only chance I have in this match and I got it!
--- xyzzy ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Leonhart4 05/05/20 5:43:55 PM #484: |
transience posted...
phew, crew curse is the only chance I have in this match and I got it! I mean the only one who would pick P4G here is a crazy guest! --- ... Copied to Clipboard!
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transience 05/05/20 6:51:18 PM #485: |
you guys boxed me in on ME2 but not by enough!
--- xyzzy ... Copied to Clipboard!
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LusterSoldier 05/05/20 7:33:39 PM #486: |
Master Moltar posted...
#1 GameFAQs doesn't care about multiplayer anymore That may be true for local multiplayer, but it doesn't explain why online multiplayer has become less popular on this site. Online multiplayer has gotten weaker for different reasons, the biggest of which is centered around the average age of the site's users being over 30 and many people now have full time jobs that make scheduling online multiplayer sessions even harder now. Finding one specific date and time for an online multiplayer session that works for the greatest number of people is very difficult because any specific date and time you can come up with will have at least some people who can't play at that time for various reasons (currently working, visiting family or friends, etc). Given the logistical difficulties that now factor into scheduling online multiplayer sessions, it's no wonder a lot of the site has scaled back or even completely eliminated online multiplayer from the time they spend playing video games. I suppose the ongoing coronavirus situation makes it easier than usual to schedule online multiplayer sessions with other people, but that's only a temporary thing and would return to normal in the future. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as Advokaiser, Guru Champ! ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Leonhart4 05/05/20 8:02:04 PM #487: |
Yeah, I figured if any game would win easily, it'd be Smash.
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transcience 05/05/20 8:03:16 PM #488: |
bracket votes + the smash early vote is a scary combo. I dont think this is over yet but Id rather have Smash of course
--- add the c and back away iphonesience ... Copied to Clipboard!
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LeonhartFour 05/05/20 8:04:58 PM #489: |
transcience posted...
bracket votes + the smash early vote is a scary combo. I dont think this is over yet but Id rather have Smash of course get ready to give Spidey credit --- ... Copied to Clipboard!
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transcience 05/05/20 8:05:39 PM #490: |
nah
(and well never know, thanks zelda) --- add the c and back away iphonesience ... Copied to Clipboard!
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transcience 05/05/20 8:10:26 PM #491: |
like I said
--- add the c and back away iphonesience ... Copied to Clipboard!
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LeonhartFour 05/05/20 8:16:15 PM #492: |
not so fast now
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Mac Arrowny 05/05/20 8:18:21 PM #493: |
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7462-best-of-2018-playstation-4
SM didn't really do that bad in the GotY polls. What did they project SM would get on SSBU? --- All the stars in the sky are waiting for you. ... Copied to Clipboard!
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LeonhartFour 05/05/20 8:18:42 PM #494: |
Mac Arrowny posted...
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7462-best-of-2018-playstation-4 Like 35% --- ... Copied to Clipboard!
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ZeldaTPLink 05/05/20 8:32:21 PM #495: |
Welp, this was fun while it lasted.
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LeonhartFour 05/05/20 8:35:30 PM #496: |
glad I stuck to my gut on Smash
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MechanicalWall 05/05/20 8:55:57 PM #497: |
Well I was right that whatever won was gonna win by a decent margin
I just backed the wrong horse cuz I'm a big thicky booboo --- If you're only on this board to whine about "SJWs", please redirect whatever you type on to the nearest trash can. And hop in after it. ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Master Moltar 05/05/20 9:03:45 PM #498: |
last R4 guest sign-ups open
see yall next topic --- Moltar Status: hype Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Leonhart4 05/05/20 9:41:54 PM #499: |
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Leonhart4 05/05/20 9:42:17 PM #500: |
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