Board 8 > Game of the Decade: 2010-2019 Contest Analysis Crew - Part 5

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The Mana Sword
04/25/20 8:15:53 PM
#51:


I know Ive said it every round

but last of us sucks

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transcience
04/25/20 8:16:01 PM
#52:


whoa thats a hell of an upset pick!

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iphonesience
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LeonhartFour
04/25/20 8:16:02 PM
#53:


I dunno. I just can't get over you saying you weren't even convinced Batman could beat Diablo III!
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transcience
04/25/20 8:17:19 PM
#54:


I overestimated Diablo 3 for sure. that game had a nice second life, but perhaps this site didnt have much interest in that

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iphonesience
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transcience
04/25/20 8:20:44 PM
#55:


yeah last of us is fine

comic book games have an audience with the board vote, or at least thats my impression. but pure western games not so much

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iphonesience
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LeonhartFour
04/25/20 8:24:06 PM
#56:


western games tend to do poorly with the board vote but I figured people would be bracket voting TLOU but I guess either they think their brackets are already dead or they weren't that worried about TLOU losing!
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LeonhartFour
04/25/20 8:25:51 PM
#57:


speaking of which I'm pretty sure I can enjoy leaderboard glory during the break if Automata can pull it off tomorrow

which means I have no chance because Pokemon will screw me over at every possible opportunity
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transience
04/25/20 8:33:34 PM
#58:


that's what you get for picking against pokemon

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xyzzy
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LeonhartFour
04/25/20 8:34:16 PM
#59:


transience posted...
that's what you get for picking against pokemon


even when I pick Pokemon it finds a way to troll me

I had it making the finals in 2015 and then Undertale happened
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transience
04/25/20 8:40:17 PM
#60:


Portal 2 might end up getting a lower percentage than Last of Us

RDR2 vs. Arkham City is probably fairly close too, hmm

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xyzzy
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pjbasis
04/25/20 10:00:55 PM
#61:


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Leonhart4
04/25/20 10:03:08 PM
#62:


pjbasis posted...
So Last of Us vs Xenoblade 2 is 55-45?

57.53% for TLOU currently

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Master Moltar
04/26/20 1:14:01 AM
#63:


Previous Results: Persona 5 puts up good numbers on Sonic, and Portal 2 manages to beat RDR2 comfortably.

Crew Predictions: 102/108

Next Round Thoughts: Persona still looking like the clear favorite to win the division.

Crew Prediction Challenge:

Moltar: 100
Kleenex: 100
Leonhart: 96
transience: 96
Guest: 87

Crew Accuracy Challenge: Leon gets the point for Persona Moltar gets the point for Portal.

Moltar: 30
transience: 22
Leonhart: 18
Kleenex: 17
Guest: 17 (spooky96, Hbthebattle (3), Black Turtle, ctes (2), MetalmindStats (2), MechanicalWall (2), Kotetsu, pjbasis, Nintendogs, SuperNiceDog, FFDragon, Sir Chris)

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Moltar Status: hype
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pjbasis
04/26/20 1:30:15 AM
#64:


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The Mana Sword
04/26/20 7:06:02 AM
#65:


no one cases about accuracy anyway

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transcience
04/26/20 9:08:47 AM
#66:


wow, this looks like a totally different match with dark souls falling apart overnight and last of us rising. last of us is actually above every prediction but mine now! well have to remember this for next round when dark souls is killing it early with brackets presumably on its side.

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iphonesience
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LeonhartFour
04/26/20 10:07:36 AM
#67:


oh hey made it to third place!

but yeah this is a nice recovery for TLOU after that rough start

hopefully we can slow our roll on Dark Souls a bit now that this performance basically mirrors Portal 2/KH3
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LinkMarioSamus
04/26/20 10:13:08 AM
#68:


The Last of Us is still super dead next round though.

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LeonhartFour
04/26/20 10:15:02 AM
#69:


oh I'm not saying TLOU has a chance to beat Dark Souls next round

but it's probably more like 55/45 than 60/40

I'm just not sold on Dark Souls being a Skyrim killer
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LinkMarioSamus
04/26/20 10:15:38 AM
#70:


That depends on what Skyrim does.

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Leonhart4
04/26/20 10:29:34 AM
#71:


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Master Moltar
04/26/20 11:27:25 AM
#72:


Round 3 The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim vs. Mario Kart 8

Moltars Analysis

The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim
Round 1 84.00% vs. Subnautica
Round 2 74.98% vs. Journey

Mario Kart 8
Round 1 58.85% vs. Uncharted 4: A Thiefs End
Round 2 60.36% vs. Final Fantasy XIV Online: A Realm Reborn

So this match isnt actually about this match, but about how it compares to Witcher 3 vs. Mario Galaxy 2 and Dark Souls vs. MGSV. Witcher, Dark Souls, and Skyrim are the three favorites to make the finals opposite of maybe-not-but-definitely-most-likely Breath of the Wild.

Most everyone is going to take Galaxy to be stronger than MK8, but MK8 has looked solid enough this year where it probably isnt a whole lot stronger. MGSV is currently doing pretty respectably on Dark Souls as well. Assuming a constant Galaxy 2 and MGSV from 2015, though Dark Souls has closed the gap since then, Witcher still looks like the stronger game at this moment between the two. If Skyrim can put up impressive numbers here, it could potentially re-assert itself as the favorite.

What would an impressive number be? Its hard to say since we dont know how strong Uncharted 4 and FF14 are. If Uncharted 2 from 2015 and 4 are similar in strength, then mid-60s would be expected here. Anything significantly higher than that and Skyrims got that finals spot on lock. Anything significantly lower and yikes watch out.

Moltars Bracket: The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim

Moltars Prediction: The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim 66%

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transiences Analysis

I've been seeing some skepticism about Skyrim's performances but I can't say that I'm there yet. Skyrim's performances tank early, much like Witcher's does, but it recovers and hasn't gone below a tripling yet. It didn't beat up Journey like FF7 did but that's okay - this contest is on a lower tier, and Journey is likely stronger now than in 2012. It has the feel of an indie game, sure, but it's also a core Sony game that won a ton of GOTY awards. (That said, it finished second to Walking Dead, and yeah.)

Anyway! Mario Kart 8 is the perfect game to embarrass Skyrim, not because Skyrim is in trouble next round necessarily but because this board is allergic to any big-budget western video game in existence. We have an incredible anti-western bias in the early vote and MK8 will probably strut its stuff for a couple of minutes, maybe multiple updates, before Skyrim has a Witcher-like rise to heaven.

I do think that Skyrim could be in trouble, but that's because Witcher has looked really good, not because of anything to do with Skyrim. Mario Kart has never really had a chance to shine in matches because it always gets crushed by Nintendo, and MK8's bracket placement has made its run fairly surprising. But it's probably not all bad, not after convincingly beating a core Sony game like Uncharted and a FF game, albeit an online one.

transience's prediction: Skyrim with 65.19%

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Leonharts Analysis

Whew, last day before the break! Anyway, Skyrim absolutely needs to put up mid-60s at minimum here after Witcher 3 just dropped 60% on Mario Galaxy 2. I get that the Galaxy games are relatively average strength for Mario games, but theres no way Galaxy 2 loses to Mario Kart 8 here. Plus, Im not super impressed with 60% on Uncharted 4 and Final Fantasy XIV, games that will definitely be weaker than Final Fantasy XV, which couldnt even get 20% on Breath of the Wild. Im not entirely convinced Mario Kart 8 would beat FFXV, for that matter, so Skyrim has no excuse not to crush it.

Witcher 3 put up a mortal performance after two otherworldly blowouts in its first two matches, so this is Skyrims chance to show it shouldnt be counted out quite yet. Im just going to hope for the best here in order to keep those quarterfinal and semifinal matches interesting!

Leonharts Vote: Mario Kart 8

Leonharts Prediction: The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim with 67.11%

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Kleenexs Analysis

The first 10 minutes of this match are going to be wild. Skyrim has a pretty rancid board vote and Mario Kart is probably going to make it look like a laughing stock. Itll recover just win and win, but man. Skyrim is like the FFVII of 2020 (in terms of contest trends). The games status as favorite to make the finals is definitely in question now, with a few other games chomping at the bit to take it down. Mario Kart isnt going to be the game to do it, but Skyrim has a rough couple rounds ahead of itself if it wants to have the honor of getting 60-40d by Zelda.

Kleenexs Prediction: The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim with 63.75%

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Guests Analysis DoctorJimmy133

Personally, I don't understand why Skyrim would have dropped from 2015. I see people referencing it all the time as far as I can tell, it seems to have become an all-time classic as opposed to fading from the public consciousness. But, of course, GameFAQs is GameFAQs, and Skyrim's 74.98% on Journey isn't the most compelling argument for its strength, even if the latter has benefited from being released on Switch and sometimes offered up for free.

Let's look at the Division 8 numbers last round:

Skyrim: 74.98% against Journey
MK8: 60.36% against FFXIV
HGSS: 71.97% against Rayman
NieR: 68.73% against DOS2

This division could get really competitive because while the percentages and conventional wisdom would suggest Skyrim > HGSS > NieR > MK8, it makes too much sense for their opponents to rank in the opposite order of FFXIV > DOS2 > Rayman > Journey, so Skyrim probably had the weakest opponent while MK8 had the strongest.

I'm pretty new to playing with extrapolation, but I plugged in some numbers I thought sounded reasonable using hypothetical matchups between Skyrim/Journey/MK8/FFXIV and decided MK8 should be worth just over 40% on Skyrim. Otherwise, Journey looks more impressive than I'm willing to accept. Not a very scientific way to go about things, but eh. I do think MK8 will underperform a little bit, though, since it has probably been getting a lot of apathy votes up until now and is going to lose some of those to Skyrim. At any rate, I'm expecting a Mario Kart 8-Super Mario Galaxy 2 analogy to make Skyrim look pretty underwhelming here compared to Witcher.

As an aside, I cannot wait to see the trends for this match!
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transience
04/26/20 11:31:11 AM
#73:


looks like we're all skeptical of the Skyrim deboost. Mario Kart 8 just seems like such a bad barometer though. Nintendo never goes down easily.

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Safer_777
04/26/20 12:04:13 PM
#74:


I took Skyrim as the finalist but now I believe that Witcher 3 reaches the final match no problem.

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MechanicalWall
04/26/20 12:06:18 PM
#75:


Master Moltar posted...
Journey isn't the most compelling argument for its strength, even if the latter has benefited from being released on Switch and sometimes offered up for free.
Journey's not on Switch

And I still feel Journey has much better reason to drop than to climb strength-wise. There's no real reason for time to have been kind to that game, and I don't buy the freebie bonus on an eight year old game

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Safer_777
04/26/20 12:22:00 PM
#76:


Journey won GOTY though! Just not on this site.

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ctesjbuvf
04/26/20 12:28:47 PM
#77:


I mean, if there ever was a time where being free would make a difference

I don't know. I think it's more that the Bethesda backlash has prevented Skyrim from scoring blowouts. We've seen similar things before. I think at the end of the day, it'll look fine.

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Leonhart4
04/26/20 12:36:30 PM
#79:


Sorry, got confused there! I do think Journey is the type of game that would do better in this format and being free right now can only help, even if it's only a little bit.

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MechanicalWall
04/26/20 12:37:56 PM
#80:


I still feel there's a lot of skirting around an explanation that is pretty straightforward and isn't really all that surprising. Skyrim being slightly weaker than it was isn't a mindblowing proposition. I'm still in the camp of it making semis but it being two, three, four points weaker than its 2015 x-stat is in line with the current gaming zeitgeist surrounding Witcher and BotW, and that's before arguing if it was overrated in 2015 anyway.

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Leonhart4
04/26/20 12:39:14 PM
#81:


Why would it be overrated? The Undertale spillover didn't ever seem to benefit it.

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Gall
04/26/20 12:41:18 PM
#82:


If UC4 = 2015 level UC2, Skyrim needs at least 62% here to prove it hasn't significantly fallen.

Of note is that Dark Souls right now is doing slightly worse than 2015 Skyrim would do on 2015 MGS5.
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ctesjbuvf
04/26/20 1:12:17 PM
#83:


Oh I think Skyrim is weaker.

Just not as much as people seem to want it to be.

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Master Moltar
04/26/20 3:53:33 PM
#84:


Round 3 Pokemon HeartGold / SoulSilver Version vs. NieR: Automata

Moltars Analysis

Pokemon HeartGold / SoulSilver Version
Round 1 81.96% vs. Night in the Woods
Round 2 71.97% vs. Rayman Legends

NieR: Automata
Round 1 68.41% vs. Bayonetta 2
Round 2 68.73% vs. Divinity: Original Sin II

I have Pokemon in my bracket, but I was willing to abandon it and really wanted Nier to go into this match as the favorite. Theres two things that are stopping me though.

First, not even 69% on Divinity what??? I know Divinity overperformed a little due to a rally, but still thats not the performance I wanted to see going into a debatable match. Bayo 2 looked bad in 2015, but I assumed it was underrated. At the very least it shouldnt have a problem with Divinity... Something here doesnt line-up with me, but whatever. The point is that while Nier isnt weak, it also hasnt looked all that strong so far.

Second, this round has shown that people arent going to punish games for being ports or remakes. P4G beat GTAV in part because people are treating it as Persona 4. RE2 beat Bloodborne in part because people are treating it as RE2. I believe voters are going to treat this as Gold/Silver as well, especially if they havent played Nier but have played Pokemon G/S.

From what Ive seen so far, Pokemon looks like the safe pick here. Even if it isnt as strong as the original G/S, Nier would have to close quite the gap as I dont buy HGSS being hugely weaker than G/S. Prove me wrong, Nier.

Moltars Bracket: Pokemon HeartGold / SoulSilver Version

Moltars Prediction: Pokemon HeartGold / SoulSilver Version 54%

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transiences Analysis

The last match before our mini-break is a big one. I honestly don't think I need to go over their first two rounds too carefully as it doesn't really tell us much. It tells us that Nier isn't weak, having doubled both Bayonetta 2 and Divinity 2, two games that aren't amazing, but probably aren't awful.

Pokemon, on the other hand, faced two nobodies and put up big numbers. I think most people take Pokemon's results as a half step better than Nier's but I don't really have any respect for Rayman Legends at this point. Rayman nudged out Celeste which seemed like an okay result at the time, but indie games Cuphead Hollow Knight Super Meat Boy yada yada yada you've heard it all numerous times. I wouldn't put Rayman as anywhere near the same level as, say, Sonic Mania, and it got doubled by Persona 5. Nier probably hasn't caught up to Persona 5 in 2020, but it probably isn't too far behind? 2B probably beats Joker, whatever that means.

Instead of trying to gauge off of numbers, I'm trying to think about Pokemon HG/SS as a contest entity. Remakes haven't been a big factor so far but I'm also thinking that we haven't had the right game to exploit it yet. GTA and RDR aren't gamefaqsy kinds of games and Bloodborne isn't really a core game here either. Nier is a different story, a JRPG-ass JRPG with style for days to match its weirdly critical acclaim.

I think of HG/SS as being about on par with the other Pokemon games from this decade, maybe a half step better, and not so much like Gold/Silver. Pokemon games from this decade have lost to FFXV and Link Between Worlds in GOTY settings - not awful, but not amazing. If HG/SS is on par with Gold/Silver then this half of the bracket might be in real trouble. People might not differentiate between P4G and P4 too much but Gold/Silver to HG/SS feels like a totally different thing. People recognize, or at least I recognize, that those are two very different things from very different time periods, whereas P4G is more like a greatest hits version kind of thing.

I dunno. There's a fear factor to Pokemon that always exists in contests but I think I'm sticking with Nier here. It's proven enough to me and Pokemon is such an unknown quantity. If Pokemon goes big, the bottom half of the bracket could be in huge trouble.

transience's prediction: Nier: Automata with 52.14%

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Leonharts Analysis

At the freeze last round, I was feeling awfully good about Automata winning here! It had 75% on Divinity and HG/SS had 68% on Rayman Legends. Unfortunately, their percentages nearly flipped by the end of the match, which has caused me to doubt its chances now. Its possible that Divinity is just better than we thought because I still believe Automatas round 1 performance on Bayonetta 2 was really good, and 2017 games have just been impressing all over the place.

Im trying to figure out how good Pokemons performance was last round. Rayman Legends barely beat Celeste last round, so its basically equal to most of the indies that have been crapping the bed. Would Celeste beat Super Meat Boy (which is only projected to get 22-23% on Persona 5) or VVVVVV (which got a similar percentage on Fallout 4)? Yeah, probably, but would it be decisive? Im not sure. You can certainly call into question exactly how good that was.

Of course, knowing my history with Pokemon, Celeste is the strongest indie game and Rayman Legends would beat Sonic Mania or something. Would it be so bad for Pokemon to actually underperform every now and then? Whatever, Im picking Automata anyway because this cannot continue.

Leonharts Vote: NieR: Automata

Leonharts Prediction: NieR: Automata with 53.44%

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Master Moltar
04/26/20 3:53:38 PM
#85:


Kleenexs Analysis

I dont like this match one bit. After last round, I have a tough time seeing NieR win this. I dont think I could comfortably put Divinity over Rayman (they both seem pretty bad though), which gives Pokemon the clear edge. I am hoping beyond hope Im wrong, and maybe Im just being too pessimistic, but Im convinced the accursed Pokemon will ruin everything once again. This cannot continue.

Kleenexs Prediction: Pokemon HeartGold / SoulSilver Version with 53.50%

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Guests Analysis ZeldaTP

I'l begin this by saying that I'm not very good at predicting Pokemon in contests. In 2013, I completely failed to see the PokeFEAR coming. In 2015, I thought Pokemon XY could be legit (it wasn't). In 2018, I completely overestimated Pikachu and had him losing to Yoshi.

But I think the reason for those mistakes is that I'm a pretty hardcore Pokemon player overall. And the casual GameFAQs voter is completely different from the actual Pokemon fan. They don't care about any game that came out after 2000, they don't care about any character who is not in Smash and heck, they pretty much only care about Pikachu.

So, for this contest, I tried to approach the bracket by thinking like that casual voter. And I don't believe this person played Heart Gold/Soul Silver at all, even though it's the most beloved game in the fanbase. For this game to be strong, it has to take all the strength is can get from the original GSC games. The thing, though, is that this contest has shown that this is very possible, with Persona 4 and RE2 performing very well. The GameFAQs voter doesn't seem to have a problem treating a remake like a proxy. Then again, I do think the names of the HGSS suggest something more different from the original, compared to P4 Golden and RE2; and I also think a certain sentiment of hatred for new things that is very strong in some old pokemon players (what the fanbase calls "genwunners") could manifest here. This match might be the biggest test to a remake yet.

Ok, but how strong is Nier, compared to the original GSC? Well, GSC is projected to get 73.69% on Bayonetta 2 in 2015, while Nier got 68.42% in it this contest. GSC is also projected to get 87.23% on Hearthstone, while Nier gets 80.74% on it through Divinity. I don't know which result is more reliable; after all, 2015 stats can be wonky, and the Hearthstone one is projected from a series of huge blowouts, which tend not to be very reliable. But it does seem Nier is in range to contest the match, and a small decrease in strength from HGSS due to failing to be a proxy could matter here. Bayonetta entries have also been pretty impressive lately, with the main character holding Geralt to nearly a tie in 2018 and the first game overperforming against Link Between Worlds; so I think Bayonetta is legit, and might have gotten stronger, which says good things about Nier.

Finally, there is the year argument: Nier Automata is a game from 2017, and those have been overperforming left and right, due to having been overshadowed by BotW before.

All of these points are an attempt to justify my bracket pick of Nier, which is one of my big upsets. With P4 Golden being beastly, I'm feeling less confident about it now. But I still think it can happen. Let's see if I finally get the casual voter right in a Pokemon match.

Nier Automata 51%

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Crew Consensus: A split to end Round 3! Nier is the slight favorite over Pokemon HGSS.

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Moltar Status: hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
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Safer_777
04/26/20 3:55:10 PM
#86:


Nier is the Crew favorite? Damn!

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DoctorJimmy133
04/26/20 4:08:04 PM
#87:


MechanicalWall posted...
Journey's not on Switch
I seriously mixed up the Switch with mobile phones.

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ZeldaTPLink
04/26/20 4:08:09 PM
#88:


Safer_777 posted...
Nier is the Crew favorite? Damn!

Through the sheer power of "fuck you Pokemon stop killing our brackets" rage.
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KamikazePotato
04/26/20 4:10:21 PM
#89:


My gut feeling about this match is that it's not close and Pokemon takes it in a cakewalk

I do appreciate the "fuck you Pokemon stop killing our brackets" mentality though, classic Crew

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Safer_777
04/26/20 4:16:13 PM
#90:


If Pokemon doesn't win this I will attribute it to Hentai. Only this explanation I will believe.

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Mac Arrowny
04/26/20 4:16:43 PM
#91:


Sorry, I know this has been asked before, but what does Pokemon get on Nier if Divinity = Rayman?
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Leonhart4
04/26/20 4:18:02 PM
#92:


I like that Kleenex and I made the same Automata joke despite having different picks

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Leonhart4
04/26/20 4:19:44 PM
#93:


Mac Arrowny posted...
Sorry, I know this has been asked before, but what does Pokemon get on Nier if Divinity = Rayman?

55.18%

And of course now that my Guru bracket is on the line Pokemon is the stone cold lock of the contest

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ZeldaTPLink
04/26/20 4:23:54 PM
#94:


Streak contest is hot too.

Moltar/Hylian are ahead of everyone else and they both have Pokemon today.

If Nier wins they both get toppled and Ngamer will gain an almost invincible lead.

But if Pokemon wins I hardly see anyone else passing those two.
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Mac Arrowny
04/26/20 5:00:44 PM
#95:


Leonhart4 posted...


55.18%


Funny that everyone went below that...
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Leonhart4
04/26/20 6:34:49 PM
#96:


Well, I doubt everyone did the math!

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transience
04/26/20 6:39:23 PM
#97:


Divinity should beat Rayman.

I have no idea what will happen in this match

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xyzzy
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transience
04/26/20 8:02:34 PM
#98:


two minutes in and I still have no idea what to think about this match

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xyzzy
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Leonhart4
04/26/20 8:03:41 PM
#99:


Yeah, Pokemon should have brackets but it rose a lot after the freeze and Nier fell a lot last round

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transience
04/26/20 8:05:20 PM
#100:


it's funny how Skyrim and Pokemon have basically the exact same votes and I have completely different feelings about both

Skyrim looks more than fine here based on Witcher's last round

edit: wow, it is the exact same votes

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xyzzy
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Leonhart4
04/26/20 8:07:26 PM
#101:


What a weird freeze considering how different the final percentages are likely to be.

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