Board 8 > ~GotD10s Spread Betting~ Day 11 feat. Persona 5 (-56), Sonic Mania (-46)

(+) Yeah! (+)

You can sign-up now or anytime during the contest. Regardless, you will be given $1000 to bet on matches as you see fit. If at any time you fall below $1000, you can bet up to $1000 but beware you can enter the negatives. The user with the most money at the end will be crowned the winner and receive a game of their choice (within reason) courtesy of your host (unless I win, then the prize will go to the runner-up).

Basically this works like sports betting with spreads, if you're familiar with that. Here's an example line:

The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild (-40) vs The Outer Worlds

If you bet on BotW, it would have to beat TOW by 40%, meaning it would have to get at least 70% of the vote (70-30 = 40). If you bet on TOW (+40) it needs to score at least 30.01% of the vote (69.99 - 30.01 = 39.98) to keep the difference in percentage, or spread, within 40 points.

So someone with $1000 bets $500 on BotW

BotW 73.12%
TOW 26.88%

BotW covers! The bet is doubled and returned for a profit of $500 and the player is now at $1500

ALTERNATE UNIVERSE

BotW 63.1%
TOW 36.9%

TOW covers! All BotW bets are lost and said player is now at $500. Even though BotW won, it didn't win by enough.

Back for this contest is 4-match days, meaning parlays are back too! For those unfamiliar, you can earn more by combining your bets, but if one is wrong you lose the whole thing. So let's say

The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild (-40) vs The Outer Worlds
Halo: Reach (-10) vs Life Is Strange

If you bet $100 on each of these individually and win, you earn a $100 profit on each, for a total of $200. However, if you parlay and both win you will get x3, meaning you win a $300 profit. However, if either match is wrong you lose the entire bet. 3 and 4 match parlays will give higher payouts, but you risk losing it all if any match in the parlay is wrong.

2-Match Parlay: 3 to 1 ($100 bet = $300 profit)
3-Match Parlay: 7 to 1 ($100 bet = $700 profit)
4-Match Parlay: 15 to 1 ($100 bet = $1500 profit)

You can choose any combination of parlays and single bets you want.

Today's Matches
Persona 5 (-56) vs. Heavy Rain (Persona 5 with 78%)
Assassin's Creed IV: Black Flag (-14) vs. Sid Meier's Civilization V (ACIV with 57%)
Sonic Mania (-46) vs. Ys VIII: Lacrimosa of DANA (Sonic Mania with 73%)
Super Meat Boy (-36) vs. Slay the Spire (Super Meat Boy with 68%)

---

Assuming Dark Souls 3 and God of War cover, which they should...

$50,000 on Super Meat Boy

Remaning parlay on Persona 5 and Sonic Mania

---

Assuming my bet yesterday covers, $50,000 on a parlay on Persona 5 and Civilization V. Otherwise, MAX on the same parlay.

---

MAX parlay on Sonic Mania, Super Meat Boy

fuck it

$25000 parlay on Heavy Rain, Civilization 5 and Sonic Mania

---

50% Parlay on Sonic and Super Meat Boy

---

1000 on ys 8. No way sonic is doing that well. 1000 on havy rain too. I love Persona 5. But heavy rain is a legit first party sony game. Its not fodder like a lot weve seen. If persona gets anywhere near 75 its doing amazingly well.

---

40% on Super Meat Boy
40% Parlay on Civilization V and Persona 5

MAX on Super Meat Boy

---

HALF on civ 5

---

$1000 parlay on Civilization/Super Meat Boy
$500 on Heavy Rain
$300 on Ys VIII

25% on Heavy Rain (+56)
25% on Sid Meier's Civilization V (+14)
25% on Sonic Mania (-46)
25% on Super Meat Boy (-36)

---

Assuming that my math is correct for today...

$230,000 on Super Meat Boy

Pending re-analysis later since I should actually get home before the match for a change, but I'm posting this just in case I'm late for some reason. (NO bet if yesterday's bet doesn't cover.)

---

Digging myself out of a hole.

1000 on Heavy Rain and Super Meat Boy Parlay please.


---

50% on Persona 5, Sonic Mania

25% on Assassin's Creed IV, Super Meat Boy

Looks like I'm the only person touching ACIV so far which scares me but we'll see!

$4000 parlay on Sonic and Super Meat Boy

---

assuming my bets cover

22K on super meat boy + sonic parlay
20K on persona 5
---

ALL on Persona 5, **** it

---

Getting cold feet on Sonic...

CHANGE:

$25000 parlay on Heavy Rain, Civilization V and Ys VIII

Come one you bunch o' losers, lose with pride!

---

87,500 on Civilization V

---

Actually, another change!

$25000 parlay on Persona 5, Civilization V, Sonic Mania and Super Meat Boy

Reasoning:

1. P5 is going to triple Heavy Rain. Bomb of the round if it doesn't, so it only needs to do a little better than that to make the spread. Seems like recently released games are doing better than older ones (if they are weak), which doesn't favour HR.
2. Civilization gets a fair bit of respect, even here, and Civ V was well received. AC's name is not worth crap now - see Odyssey getting pulverised like it was some random indie no-name - so I can't see Black Flag blowing out Civ V.
3. Sonic is actually known, and apparantly Mania is well liked. I'm usually pretty familiar with (and a fan of) the weaker JRPG series that make these contests but Ys is too niche even for me. It'll get 20-25% for sure, but more than that is asking a lot when so many apathy voters have to pick and will be going for Sonic.
4. If you're betting on a 3-way parlay, why not make it 4?! Pot odds and all that. I actually know what Super Meat Boy is - his game was pretty awesome and well supported. His rivalry avoided a doubling against Zidane and Kuja (he then came last against Game & Watch and Lee Everett...). Slay the Spire I see is a recently released roguelike... doesn't seem like the kind of indie that's going to do well against an older, more recognisable opponent. It got blown out by Untitled Goose Game and 60:40'd by Disco Elysium - I'd take SMB to easily beat DE. Here goes some cash...

---

MAX on Persona 5/Super Meat Boy

Wow even after making a bracket and presumably having seen it then, I didn't realize Heavy Rain was in this contest. It feels like that came out so long ago.

---

Another tough round of spreads, but I need to make big moves if I'm going to have a change, despite being in 3rd.

MAX Parlay on Persona 5, Civ V, and Sonic Mania.

---

$5,000,000 parlay on Persona, Sonic, Meat Boy

---

CHANGE

40% on Super Meat Boy
40% Parlay on Civilization V, Sonic and Persona 5

HALF Parlay on Sid Meier's Civilization V and Super Meat Boy

---

CHANGE

$75,000 on Persona 5.
$25,000 on a parlay on Civilization V, Ys VIII, and Super Meat Boy.

---

$46,000 parlay on Civ 5, Sonic, Meat Boy

CHANGE

Adding Super Meat Boy to the parlay, so it's now:

MAX Parlay on Persona 5, Civ V, Sonic Mania, and Super Meat Boy.

---

CHANGE

90% on Super Meat Boy
10% on parlay of Civilization, Sonic Mania, and Persona 5

---

25% on Persona 5
25% on Civilization V
5% on Ys VIII
40% on Super Meat Boy

This is the most I've disagreed with the lines so far this season; hope it pays off for me!


---

Yeah I guess I'll just stick with my bet that I posted this morning. I'll safely grind some more before making the big plays.

---

MAX on Persona 5

---

Sonic/Ys VIII is tough. Sonic Adventure 2 didn't really do well in GOTD1... Hmm.

---

CHANGE

$36,000 parlay on Persona 5, Civ 5, Sonic, Meat Boy

I'll play it relatively safe, I guess.

$5,736,000 on Persona 5, Sonic Mania, Super Meat Boy

---

Early thoughts:

Persona is home and dry. Civ V is really going to struggle but maybe not over if the night vote can chip away. Sonic is dead. SMB will probably hang on - next update crucial.

Edit: 2nd update revision: Persona is actually going to drop like 10 points from the freeze and is dead too. Civ V will prob cover.

---

I need to follow my gut and stop worrying about maintaining the lead.

---

Yeah, I'm done. With the insane leads at the top it's going to be nearly impossible to make up any ground.

---

Wow, I don't usually like to toot my own horn but as it stands, other than Sonic I'm very proud of these spreads

---