Board 8 > Coronavirus Topic 3: Trials and Tribulations

(+) Yeah! (+)

just now he got the stock market answer right: stock market will be fine after this crisis is done.

mind you, the virus won't be done by then. but the worst of it should be.
also the doc just came in to clarify that july is the expected date for things to become more stable, not that things will be fixed.

right now it's basically a more realistic set of answers.

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He wants people to restrict gatherings to under 10 people

He has no plans to quarantine the whole country but he will quarantine hot spots if he has to

This is gonna last until July or August even if we as a nation handle it WELL.

He said hes been answering questions from his son about it and he tells him honestly that it could be bad
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Jakyl25 posted...

He wants people to restrict gatherings to under 10 people

He has no plans to quarantine the whole country but he will quarantine hot spots if he has to

This is gonna last until July or August even if we as a nation handle it WELL.

He said hes been answering questions from his son about it and he tells him honestly that it could be bad

They clearly know something we don't. As far as how this virus / strains work.

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basically they're going under the assumption "China was lying out their ass by a LOT after all."
likely with more knowledge but yeah. we don't have mass cremations, we don't have mass graves, we aren't letting our elderly die, but we're pretty fucking close to that starting line.


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https://twitter.com/ryansatin/status/1239638320621080577?s=21
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https://twitter.com/sfchronicle/status/1239620219376504832?s=21

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voltch posted...

The thing is, while Boris told everyone to stay away from social venues, but they're not shutting down.

Guess we'll see if people listen to him.

Honestly as long as schools remain open I think there will be a significant percentage of people who won't change their behaviour much. It's tough, on the one hand you have prepper types buying 100s of rolls of toilet paper and literally pushing/shoving each other for another pack (I kid you not I saw this happen at the weekend!) and on the other hand you have crowds in pubs mocking the coronavirus late into the evening as they knock drinks back. But definitely a sense that the NHS is very worried it will be overrun shortly and the flow of infections needs to be slowed.

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Tom Bombadil posted...

good luck tim

Thanks. I'm pretty healthy so I'm not really worried about the effects of my health but I was supposed to visit my parents and niece in Colorado next month and wouldn't want to get any of them sick.

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Man, the store is fucking packed. Lines are back to halfway through the aisles.

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I live in the Bay Area and I'm locked down until April 7.

This is a fucking nightmare.

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Like...you can't leave your home? At all?

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PrivateBiscuit1 posted...

I live in the Bay Area and I'm locked down until April 7.

This is a fucking nightmare.

Yep. Better now than in a week with the hospitals overflowing, though.

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SavageInTheBox posted...

Like...you can't leave your home? At all?

No. See the link I posted in 306.

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If the government were smart we'd be working out plans to expand grocery delivery service.

Leafeon13N posted...

If the government were smart we'd be working out plans to expand grocery delivery service.

Yeah you definitely want sick people at least to be using those services if they failed to sufficiently stock up beforehand.

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I did a ton of shopping yesterday thankfully, but this is just horrible. I'm afraid for every company who is going to suffer from this. The fact that we're doing this without some financial plan set in place is absolutely absurd.

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If it doesnt happen now it would have to happen for a longer time and with more death later. Congress should absolutely be passing legislation to get people through this financially/prevent businesses from going under, but thats gonna happen regardless of what we do now.

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LordoftheMorons posted...

No. See the link I posted in 306.

Uh, what? We absolutely can leave our homes. It's just "non-essential" travel that isn't being allowed.

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VintageGin posted...

Uh, what? We absolutely can leave our homes. It's just "non-essential" travel that isn't being allowed.

By no I meant were not being prevented from leaving our homes; sorry if my post was ambiguous

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PrivateBiscuit1 posted...

I did a ton of shopping yesterday thankfully, but this is just horrible. I'm afraid for every company who is going to suffer from this. The fact that we're doing this without some financial plan set in place is absolutely absurd.

If gatherings of 100 arent allowed before July my sisters workplace will be bankrupt and she is going to be in a really bad place.

I'm very scared about what is going to happen to her at this point and dont trust the government to care about helping keep theaters (play not movie) open.

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https://mobile.twitter.com/WFLA/status/1239618604255059975

The great thing about these policies to close down public spaces is that stupid people aren't going to to get the hint and stay at home like they should, they're just going to go to wherever isn't closed

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Im worried about my dad. He runs his own security camera business. If theres a quarantine hes gonna be screwed and idk how hell pay the mortgage on his house

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My university went from "graduate/postdoctoral researchers continue business as normal" to "all on-campus research activities suspended effective now" in the span of about 18 hours so that's been interesting. At least the university already assured GRA's/GTA's would get paid for the interim no matter what happened.
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I am so lucky that I went into work early today to grab everything to work from home. I was actually prepared to work at my office this week because it's easier, but my boss called me yesterday and told me to just work from home.

But man. There is so much messed up with this situation. Three freaking weeks.

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I strongly suspect it will continue past three weeks. At the very least they won't totally lift it on April 7th; they might slowly start pulling back the most disruptive/least helpful parts of the lockdown.

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Hey guys, question

people with split custody.... what are you doing?

I typically have my kid during the week and he goes to his moms on weekends. I am thinking that is a bad idea now.

What do?

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the fact that Trump actually said July today is pretty telling

dude can't sugar-coat it anymore. this is lasting until we get a vaccine basically. so 18 months. not saying social distancing will last 18 months, but there's going to be a relaxation in the summer and a spike in the fall.

Whiskey_Nick posted...

Hey guys, question

people with split custody.... what are you doing?

I typically have my kid during the week and he goes to his moms on weekends. I am thinking that is a bad idea now.

What do?

The good news is that literally no one below the age of 10 is known to have died from this, but kids still get it and spread it. If you can accept doing your visits virtually I'd recommend it.

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My son is at increased risk, he is autistic and has had a seizure disorder, but generally I am more worried about him being a vector to spread between places basically.

I am leaning towards keeping him here.

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I think there's some reason to think that a significant amount of the spread is happening through kids (mostly based on the fact that Japan has somehow slowed things a lot despite having a generally shitty response... other than closing schools early).

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Whiskey_Nick posted...

Hey guys, question

people with split custody.... what are you doing?

I typically have my kid during the week and he goes to his moms on weekends. I am thinking that is a bad idea now.

What do?

so far we stick to the same schedule - we do a 2-2-3

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Also she has kids with another guy that are also split custody and the woman that man is now with also has kids....

when I type it out, thats too many connections

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Not even wildlings are safe

https://www.instagram.com/p/B9zvkEHBRjf/?utm_source=ig_embed

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https://imgur.com/IkGkAiS

welp rooting for the virus

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i think we're gonna be okay in NY.
https://twitter.com/jessemckinley/status/1239568562425139201

not so much for Pennsylvania.
all their liquor stores are closing tonight.


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CaptainOfCrush posted...

https://imgur.com/IkGkAiS

welp rooting for the virus

I hate TikTok so much, oh my fucking GOD

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I own and operate a campground. I'm all ready going to lose 10k from Penn State cancelling their Blue/White game, and probably another 15k when they cancel graduation ceremonies. We've over doubled our business in the last five years..... so last year I borrowed over $1 million dollars to increase my site inventory and convert the entire park to solar power. Just a couple of weeks ago I was up 30% on reservations year over year. If summer travel continues as normal come July I'll probably be ok as long as the college football season isn't cancelled. But if either of those things happen I'm worried I'm going to lose the family business of 50 years directly after its most profitable time unless theres some sort of government relief. I have insurance with business interruption protection, but apparently after SARS in 2003 most insurance companies added a clause that said infectious disease outbreaks aren't covered. I've been trying to dig through my giant policy to see if I can find that clause anywhere. Really stressing out.

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Some good news: a study of 100 Chinese cities suggests that increased temperature/humidity do reduce coronavirus transmission somewhat:

https://twitter.com/jayvanbavel/status/1239693046490583044

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Finally, FINALLY, they canceled Wrestlemania (or to be more accurate, canceled all fan attendance)
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Shame. I was hoping they'd bring out a costumed wrestler dressed as "The Coronavirus" and suplex him

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On the other hand, this paper estimates that 86%(!) of the spread in China was due to undocumented cases: https://twitter.com/apoorva_nyc/status/1239594489754378240

Estimation of the prevalence and contagiousness of undocumented novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV2) infections is critical for understanding the overall prevalence and pandemic potential of this disease. Here we use observations of reported infection within China, in conjunction with mobility data, a networked dynamic metapopulation model and Bayesian inference, to infer critical epidemiological characteristics associated with SARS-CoV2, including the fraction of undocumented infections and their contagiousness. We estimate 86% of all infections were undocumented (95% CI: [82%90%]) prior to 23 January 2020 travel restrictions. Per person, the transmission rate of undocumented infections was 55% of documented infections ([46%62%]), yet, due to their greater numbers, undocumented infections were the infection source for 79% of documented cases. These findings explain the rapid geographic spread of SARS-CoV2 and indicate containment of this virus will be particularly challenging.

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1vZDVbqRhyM

A nice video explaining associations of ACE2 and the mechanism of infection/entry of the virus into the cells of patients

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LordoftheMorons posted...

Some good news: a study of 100 Chinese cities suggests that increased temperature/humidity do reduce coronavirus transmission somewhat:

https://twitter.com/jayvanbavel/status/1239693046490583044

So we're rooting for global warming now

The devil you know

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The Kentucky Derby just got pushed from May to September.

While a delay is the right thing to do, the local economy here in Louisville is going to receive an absolute ass-kicking until then. The city had an unusually high number of business closures last year, and it's about to get a whole lot worse in light of the Derby delay and everything else. We are, in the Biblical sense of the term, fucked.

I have some friends who are in between jobs right now, and I'm really starting to worry for them.

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Fuck all of these people:

https://twitter.com/WFLA/status/1239618604255059975

A ton of them are gonna get sick and then go home and infect their parents.

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times like those you just wish Jaws was a documentary.


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That beach looks disgusting.

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If only it just targeted stupid people huh

I am not sure this lockdown strategy is the best strategy. I feel like maybe we should be imposing limits on events but also be focusing all efforts on medical beds, ventilators, and hospital units. I am not sure if limiting the curve is better than increasing ability to handle the curve.

This of course means crash coursing training of nurses and doctors, using military and red Cross, etc.

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Have multiple bars and such defying the non-essential order in PA. One State Rep even said he doesn't have the authority to order it.

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