Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 252: Voiding Our Special Relationship

(+) Yeah! (+)

Literally my entire twitter feed is talking about Cenk Uygur (candidate for California's 25th district). Like...literally including a cybersecurity officer from Obama's administration, and a former sex worker I know, kind of surprised either of them even knew who Cenk was.

Divided between people who think he's some arch misogynist, and people who think he's awesome and totally reformed.

(Honest opinion, I think the answer is somewhere in the middle. He can be pretty "Bro"ish, and is a former Republican that grew up in Turkey, and that side of him occasionally comes out. But I've been listening to him off and on since 2016, and have definitely noticed improvements since then).

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I have been a fan of TYT for some time, and Cenk is sometimes a bit much for me but I'd say a good deal of this is "oh man we can't have this guy here."

Will be interested to see what happens in that race just for the debates if anything else.

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZRdfgBXwymo

yikes

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DoomTheGyarados posted...

I have been a fan of TYT for some time, and Cenk is sometimes a bit much for me but I'd say a good deal of this is "oh man we can't have this guy here."

Will be interested to see what happens in that race just for the debates if anything else.

If she does agree to debate him. From the interview Cenk gave, she's in another district (Hollywood) doing fundraisers, and hasn't agreed to a debate.

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MoogleKupo141 posted...

do you guys have #moveslikebloomberg ?

https://twitter.com/nickciarelli/status/1205354210465742848?s=21

Apparently this is fake, and the people who made it are now pretending they were fired by Bloomberg

https://twitter.com/willoremus/status/1205664457646657536?s=21

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I can't bring myself to disapprove of people trolling Bloomberg.

Funny thing is, I can't actually think of anyone who even takes Bloomberg seriously as a candidate they might be interested in, or even as a threat to a candidate they might be interested in. But somehow he's polling at 5%?

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metroid composite posted...

Funny thing is, I can't actually think of anyone who even takes Bloomberg seriously as a candidate they might be interested in, or even as a threat to a candidate they might be interested in. But somehow he's polling at 5%?

He did spend 100 million in tv ads.

That is 12.5 times more than Bernie.

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I am not joking when I say we see a Bloomberg ad every hour in California.

I don't think I've seen an ad for any other candidate except that other super rich dude with no chance.

How is Steyer polling?

Cause man he has non stop ads where I'm at.

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Maniac64 posted...

How is Steyer polling?

Cause man he has non stop ads where I'm at.

Nationally? Like 1.4%, behind Booker and Klobuchar.

To the extent that Steyer seems to have a strategy though it seems to be going all-in on the early states where he polls slightly better. Which is still like 3% in IA, NH, 4% in NV, and almost 6% in SC. By 538's polling averages that puts him in 5th behind the actually-matter Top 4 in SC/NV, and 6th behind Klobuchar in IA.

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Well he has tons of ads showing in Georgia.

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Haven't seen a single Steyer ad in Texas, but I do see at least one (And usually multiple) Bloomburg ad every single time I turn on the TV.

Even if I'm only watching the morning news for 30-40 minutes before going to work

The worst-case scenario I imagined is happening.

People are using the low-turnout UK election as proof that real people hate Left policies.

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Funny, we never use the UK as a valid example of other policies people like
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Bloombergs one ad (I don't know if he has more than one, but I only ever see the one where he mentions 9/11) just feels so... generic. Which makes it feel so insincere.

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ChaosTonyV4 posted...

The worst-case scenario I imagined is happening.

People are using the low-turnout UK election as proof that real people hate Left policies.

The more valid approach would be "never trust the youth vote. ever."

But I think trying to make the UK Election -> 2020 US Election comparison is flawed to begin with tbqhhhh.

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Looking at Matt Bevin going out... what horrible pardons will Trump do if he loses the election?

The Charleston Church Shooter?
Heather Heyer's murderer?
The Magabomber?


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Well, anyone involved with his campaign or Giuliani's operation (so Manafort, etc.) but I assume that's a given and is a separate category of awful as what you're describing.

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Jakyl25 posted...

Funny, we never use the UK as a valid example of other policies people like

I never understood how proud British people seem about the NHS. Don't a lot of countries have public healthcare? I feel like beating the United States in this area should not be a source of such pride.

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The pardon list

Donald Trump
Donald Trump Jr.
Ivanka Trump
Melania Trump
Barron Trump
Ivana Trump
Vladimir Putin
Every single KGB or FSB agent worldwide
Mitch McConnell
Hillary Clinton

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"I am trying to give a pretty clear signal I have made up my mind. I'm not trying to pretend to be a fair juror here," Graham said

Well at least he admits it
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Jesus christ, Lindsey Graham is such a disingenuous shitbag.

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https://www.politico.com/news/2019/12/13/biden-warns-democrats-about-results-of-uk-election-084359

Joe Biden is awful, and I will put 20 bucks up that says Buttigieg adopts this line soon.

The polling is not in favor of Labour's policy being bad, these results are due to anti-Corbyn bias, Brexit, and garbage-tier youth turnout.

Funny/sad sidenote: I saw a graphic that said that if every 18-24 year old voted, the results would have been 601 Labour seats to 0 Conservative.

It's the youth that Dems need to get, not the centrists.

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Not_an_Owl posted...

disingenuous

Thats probably not the right adjective here
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the UK takes are worse than I could have possibly imagined

https://twitter.com/elivalley/status/1205598876331368449?s=19

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Jeff Van Drew of New Jersey, one of two Dems to vote against opening the impeachment inquiry, is reportedly going to switch parties:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/trump-urges-rep-van-drew-anti-impeachment-democrat-to-switch- parties/2019/12/14/b201bb4a-1ea0-11ea-8d58-5ac3600967a1_story.html (remove space)

Fucking shameful if true.

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ChaosTonyV4 posted...

The worst-case scenario I imagined is happening.

People are using the low-turnout UK election as proof that real people hate Left policies.

The left just suffered their worst loss in a generation in Britain in what was supposed to be a close vote. A certain amount of hot takes got to be expected here.

I think this has more to do with Corbyn being terrible at his job than anything else but I can guarantee youre going to see them go right as a result of this election. The question is how far will they go.

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Suprak the Stud posted...

The left just suffered their worst loss in a generation in Britain in what was supposed to be a close vote. A certain amount of hot takes got to be expected here.

I think this has more to do with Corbyn being terrible at his job than anything else but I can guarantee youre going to see them go right as a result of this election. The question is how far will they go.

Big stupid, if true.

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ChaosTonyV4 posted...

https://www.politico.com/news/2019/12/13/biden-warns-democrats-about-results-of-uk-election-084359

Joe Biden is awful, and I will put 20 bucks up that says Buttigieg adopts this line soon.

The polling is not in favor of Labour's policy being bad, these results are due to anti-Corbyn bias, Brexit, and garbage-tier youth turnout.

Funny/sad sidenote: I saw a graphic that said that if every 18-24 year old voted, the results would have been 601 Labour seats to 0 Conservative.

It's the youth that Dems need to get, not the centrists.

Is that assuming they all vote Labour? If so, that really doesn't show anything.

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It was extrapolating based on voting patterns.

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And I suspect it's making some crazy assumptions because the SNP + Northern Ireland seats alone far exceed 49, so 601 would require swinging seats from the SNP to Labour, which I doubt increasing youth turnout by any amount would do.

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LordoftheMorons posted...

Jeff Van Drew of New Jersey, one of two Dems to vote against opening the impeachment inquiry, is reportedly going to switch parties:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/trump-urges-rep-van-drew-anti-impeachment-democrat-to-switch- parties/2019/12/14/b201bb4a-1ea0-11ea-8d58-5ac3600967a1_story.html (remove space)

Fucking shameful if true.

https://twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/1205951150522064896?s=19

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But yeah Labour did just fine with the centrists. They held their own in London and the South. They got annihilated in the working class areas in the North. And they've been completely replaced as the party of the left in Scotland.

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HeroDelTiempo17 posted...

https://twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/1205951150522064896?s=19

Booker 2020. Bipartisan* support.

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ChaosTonyV4 posted...

Big stupid, if true.

Yeah, but unfortunately politicians are always reactionary and it is hard to get whooped as badly as they did and not shift even slightly towards the middle. Youre essentially hoping they dont over react at this point. I think polling should show them that Corbyn was at fault here but you never know.

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Suprak the Stud posted...

The left just suffered their worst loss in a generation in Britain in what was supposed to be a close vote.

Uhhh, literally no-one expected a close vote. Every single poll that dropped in 2019 showed a conservative majority.

Where are American's even getting this bullshit from?

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GildedFool posted...

Uhhh, literally no-one expected a close vote. Every single poll that dropped in 2019 showed a conservative majority.

Where are American's even getting this bullshit from?

Nowhere have I seen that blowout predicted.

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Luckily none of the possible Dem nominees is at -40 net approval like Corbyn!

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My (limited) understanding is that polls showed a conservative majority as the likely outcome with a slight, but reasonable, possibility it might have been kept under a true majority. Though it didn't show the majority being quite this large, no.

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Seat projections are always tough, and the electoral outcome was towards the reasonable best case scenario for the Tories, but in terms of vote share the UK polls were essentially spot on this time around. They consistently showed a Tory majority, and anything else was wishful thinking really. From a leftist perspective this was a hugely disappointing result, but anyone who is surprised wasn't paying attention.

I also don't get Tony's references to this being a "low turnout" election: turnout was 67%, just 1% lower than the record high turnout from last time. Not one British news source is mentioning the turnout as a significant factor in the results either. Would Labour have done better if every young person had voted? Of course. But that never happens, so it's a total fantasy projection.

(It's also factually wrong to say they would've won every seat, even in that scenario - the SNP would still have crushed them in Scotland, and they don't even stand in NI.)

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I saw an article saying the youth turnout was a record low?

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I don't think they have any real way of measuring that here. I haven't seen any projections used as talking points either.

This gives a pretty balanced perspective on turnout: https://www.brunel.ac.uk/news-and-events/news/articles/Labour's-car-crash-result-by-age-group

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GildedFool posted...

Uhhh, literally no-one expected a close vote. Every single poll that dropped in 2019 showed a conservative majority.

Where are American's even getting this bullshit from?

That was a typo on my part and it was supposed to say "closer" instead of close.

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/12/10/final-2019-general-election-mrp-model-small-

As of a couple of days ago,Yougov had the overall conservative majority at like +28. Definitely significant but not overwhelmingly so. Instead they wound up +80 which is huge, and the biggest chunk of those gains came at the expense of labour.

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