Board 8 > ~*Ultimaterializer's Post-Contest Analysis!! Part 2*~

(+) Yeah! (+)

_Dog_ posted...

If you were referring to the Xbox One you would have a point, but the original Xbox and the 360 had a lot of exclusive games. It took you over 15 years to end up being right.

Im guessing he means exclusives that are actually good
---

_Dog_ posted...

Ulti_PCA posted...

The entire Xbox line of consoles is a complete joke and was never destined to have any good exclusives.

If you were referring to the Xbox One you would have a point, but the original Xbox and the 360 had a lot of exclusive games. It took you over 15 years to end up being right.

You vastly underestimate my level of patience and stubbornness. I'll wait a lifetime if it means being right.
---

I have no idea how even Monokuma got hyped as a rallybait character. I'm personally a fan of the Danganronpa games but the games are not that popular, the fanbase is small, and a good part don't even like Monokuma to begin with.

handsomeboy2012 posted...

I have no idea how even Monokuma got hyped as a rallybait character. I'm personally a fan of the Danganronpa games but the games are not that popular, the fanbase is small, and a good part don't even like Monokuma to begin with.

Hyping up an Undertale style tumblr rally. (Even though it was twitter putting in the work)

Division 7 Round 1: (4)Nathan Drake vs (13)Miles "Tails" Prower

(4)Nathan Drake - 12514 [43.27%]
(13)Tails - 16405 [56.73%]
Total Votes - 28919
Prediction Percentage - 33.15%

Only CAPTAIN TOAD had a lower round one prediction percentage than this one, and it did my childhood and my fanboyism a world of good to be on the right side of Tails' path this year. yoblazer made a fantastic topic about best feels-good calls this contest, and my #1 is Tails. I'll get more into his actual path and why it meant so much to me in round two, so for now let's just focus on this one match.

80% of the board and almost 70% of the brackets picked Nathan Drake to win this match, but I knew. I just knew. Well I didn't "know" per se, because this was a pure fanboy pick that I could not pass up. I was always pissed I didn't take Tails > Viewtiful Joe back in the day, and I vowed to pick the little guy again if I ever got the chance to pull an upset.

How long did I wait?

https://tenor.com/view/till-this-day-deontay-wilder-to-this-day-gif-13032806

I could not pass it up. Nathan Drake was the perfect opponent for Tails to get some redemption. The guy got less than 7% in a poll and lost to CATS in his contest debut. Then he got a 2 seed and became the first 2 seed ever to lose to a 15. His one win was in 2013 against Pac-Man by 700 votes, and I have my doubts Drake could win that match if it was a 1v1. That was it, Drake's entire history leading up to this match. Why he continues to get these high seeds and all this bracket backing, I will never understand. Nathan Drake is on par with GTA and Call of Duty, only he actually keeps making contests to embarrass himself in while a lot of other casualbait knew when to quit. Not that Tails's history was all that much better, but his round 1 losses were generally to more respectable opponents.

And for pete's sake, the guy has never lost to CATS. When the match started and Tails just boat raced this clown, I could not have been happier. I didn't get a whole lot of debated stuff right this contest, but I can always look at this match plus the one after and just smile. You finally did it little man, and with my lucky #13 to boot.

It might be time to retire Nathan Drake, by the way. If he keeps getting in I'm sure this won't be the last of his embarrassing losses. If he does get in again, I would put him 1v1 with CATS for hilarity's sake.
---

Alright I need a break.
---

handsomeboy2012 posted...

I have no idea how even Monokuma got hyped as a rallybait character. I'm personally a fan of the Danganronpa games but the games are not that popular, the fanbase is small, and a good part don't even like Monokuma to begin with.

He was?
The series is dead, anyone that thought he could be rallied is dumb
---

Nathan Drake went from essentially a joke character to beating Pac-Man over a number of years. He did go up in strength and I assume people thought he kept it. Turns out he didn't.

Tails' win over Drake and Chief shows an overall rejection of modern Sony and Microsoft in this site. GameFAQs really does stick to it's old games.
---

Nanis23 posted...

handsomeboy2012 posted...

I have no idea how even Monokuma got hyped as a rallybait character. I'm personally a fan of the Danganronpa games but the games are not that popular, the fanbase is small, and a good part don't even like Monokuma to begin with.

He was?
The series is dead, anyone that thought he could be rallied is dumb

Most of the people that go over-board with Rally Fear have no idea what makes a character rally-able. How many people on this board refuse to even glance at Undertale because of the 2015 Games contest again, but made brackets with Monika or D'Va or Waluigi going far?
---

_SecretSquirrel posted...

Nanis23 posted...

handsomeboy2012 posted...

I have no idea how even Monokuma got hyped as a rallybait character. I'm personally a fan of the Danganronpa games but the games are not that popular, the fanbase is small, and a good part don't even like Monokuma to begin with.

He was?
The series is dead, anyone that thought he could be rallied is dumb

Most of the people that go over-board with Rally Fear have no idea what makes a character rally-able. How many people on this board refuse to even glance at Undertale because of the 2015 Games contest again, but made brackets with Monika or D'Va or Waluigi going far?

Personally I am a victim of Waluigi-Fear and Monikia-Minor-Fear, also had Sans beating Pac Man, but I believed it would be thanks to natural strength alone (lol)
Waluigi to round 4 as I feared 4chan would do it, then the meme died faster than I thought and who even cares about GameFAQs now
Monika had to face two weaks opponents so I thought the weak rally I expected would be enough to get her to Zero and lose there...

Totally got D.Va and Monokuma right
---

Nanis23 posted...

who even cares about GameFAQs now

This is more true than you know. More on that later.
---

Monika, Sans and Waluigi-fear at least has some reasoning beyond it, there is zero chance of Monokuma getting rallied

Ulti_PCA posted...

Also, level with me. Are the games any good?

Yes. Yes yes yes yes. God, yes.

With the shitshow that Square has become, Atlus has become the last bastion of good JRPGs from a major developer (though I don't play DQ so maybe that franchise hasn't become garbage?). However, you have to really embrace the fact that it's 50% JRPG dungeon-crawler, 50% Japanese high-school simulator.
---

trdl23 posted...

Ulti_PCA posted...

Also, level with me. Are the games any good?

Yes. Yes yes yes yes. God, yes.

With the shitshow that Square has become, Atlus has become the last bastion of good JRPGs from a major developer (though I don't play DQ so maybe that franchise hasn't become garbage?). However, you have to really embrace the fact that it's 50% JRPG dungeon-crawler, 50% Japanese high-school simulator.

This sounds like the worst game ever made
---

Persona is quite good and worth looking into.

Yakuza is also fantastic and deserves way more popularity. We're just lucky the games are getting Western releases now.
---

That sounds like half of a video game bro.
---

The high school simulator is kinda like the parts outside dungeons in JRPGs I think? During that time you can buy equipment and items, talk to people, upgrade your skills etc. Either way it's important to the story and helps prepare for dungeons.

You get really invested in the HS sim side, since the stories that are written for all of the side characters are so well done. Also, there's only a set number of days, so there is legitimate strategy in that part of the game too. Getting 100% without a guide is really difficult, as you need to carefully plan out when to raise stats and when to focus on talking to the side characters.

It is one of those games that's tough to explain, but just works.
---

Ulti_PCA posted...

That sounds like half of a video game bro.

Yeah it's really hard to sell it on just "this is what the game is." It shouldn't work, but it really does. I have Persona 4 in one of my top 5 games of all time for whatever that's worth, and both P3 and P5 are top-notch games as well.
---

I think the best way to sell it is that it's a great way to get more character development not only for your main party members but also the feel good nature of helping out random people with their every day problems.

And then choosing romance option(s).
---

Tag
---

trdl23 posted...

Ulti_PCA posted...

Also, level with me. Are the games any good?

Yes. Yes yes yes yes. God, yes.

With the shitshow that Square has become, Atlus has become the last bastion of good JRPGs from a major developer (though I don't play DQ so maybe that franchise hasn't become garbage?). However, you have to really embrace the fact that it's 50% JRPG dungeon-crawler, 50% Japanese high-school simulator.

You've obviously been playing the wrong Atlus games, then. Try playing something from the mainline Shin Megami Tensei instead of the Persona sub-series. IV is pretty good, and Strange Journey is outstanding. No high school simulator to be found. Strange Journey has you as a member of the military, part of a task force sent to investigate some strange dimensional rift that has opened in Antarctica.

Also there was a non-SMT Atlus game that I've frequently hyped up, goes by the name Stella Glow?
---

Division 7 Round 1: (3)Tifa Lockheart vs (14)Geno

(3)Tifa - 22399 [73.19%]
(14)Geno - 8205 [26.81%]
Total Votes - 30604
Prediction Percentage - 79.95%

As Final Fantasy 7 has continued to slowly erode over the years, a few things have kept it from complete and total collapse. One is Cloud appearing in Smash Bros. Another is probably the Dissidia games, even though I loathe them all and think they are absolute filth. I'd rather deal with any parvo diarrhea over ever playing a Dissidia game again. For those not involved in animal nursing, parvovirus destroys a dog's intestinal lining and renders them unable to absorb any nutrients. Without a ton of emergency care, they eventually die from a fatal diarrhea, and this sometimes happens anyway because it's very difficult to get rid of the virus to where the body can regrow the intestines. It's a terrible way to die, but the smell is what's worst. Imagine a bloody, liquid shit death emanating from something that's still alive. That's parvovirus.

And it's still better than the Dissidia games.

The last thing keeping FF7 afloat is Tifa, who is in the same boat as Vivi. No matter how far Square falls, she still has a "magic" to her that makes it very difficult to anti-vote or hate her. Her contest strength has held well over the years, and it really showed in this match. Geno is a beloved character from a beloved game, and people have been pining for him to get into Smash for well over 10 years.

Tifa gave no fucks and just annihilated him. Think she cares he's never won a match? Bitch please. Meteor Strike right upside that doll's head. A good comparison for this match is the Squall/Geno match from 2005 where Squall got 75% on him. For Geno to ever win a match, he needs a Smash appearance. This is plain as day at this point. As for Tifa, this match was about prepping for the Mewtwo scrape. Her fans weren't necessarily worried about division titles yet, because this division was stacked. Her, Luigi, Mewtwo, and Mega Man X were all packed in here and they all had a good case behind them. She definitely got off on the right foot though, that's for sure.
---

I think another factor that keeps FFVII from total collapse is just that Cloud is the defining JRPG protagonist, even twenty years later. He has an iconic status to him that automatically lends some strength even if he shouldn't have it.
---

Poor Geno
I wonder why he is so weak in those contests...yet it feels like he is super popular everywhere else
Vocal minority?
---

Nanis23 posted...

Poor Geno
I wonder why he is so weak in those contests...yet it feels like he is super popular everywhere else
Vocal minority?

He's not super popular anywhere else. He's got a small band of hardcore followers.
---

For Geno to ever win a match, he needs a Smash appearance

BuT hE's A LEgEnD sPiRiT /s

Smash has been adding retro 80s characters since Melee. As wickedly cool as they are (especially Duck Hunt!), it'd be great to see a 90s "retro pick" or two. Geno would be one of the best choices for this imo.
---

Geno has gotten stuck to being a Spirit / Avatar in Smash Ultimate but I guess it's better than nothing
---

NowItsAngeTime posted...

Geno has gotten stuck to being a Spirit / Avatar in Smash Ultimate but I guess it's better than nothing

I'm holding out hope on him.
---

Unfortunately for fans of those niche characters like Geno and Isaac (Hi!), when you compare them to high-profile reveals like Ryu, Cloud and Joker then they really don't stand out
So yeah I don't believe he will make it in (even if you don't believe that Spirits/Assist Trophies deconfirm a character)
---

Division 7 Round 1: (6)GLaDOS vs (11)Mewtwo

(6)GLaDOS - 11484 [37.52%]
(11)Mewtwo - 19123 [62.48%]
Total Votes - 30607
Prediction Percentage - 59.09%

There are people pointing to this match as evidence of Mewtwo's FRAUDULENCE before the Tifa match even happened, but I highly disagree. This is pretty much exactly what Mewtwo was supposed to do against GLaDOS -- a boring 63-37 type of beatdown that gets chalked up into the ether of forgotten round one matches. Given he was only an 11 seed, only had 59% of people behind him, and is finally back in Smash Bros without DLC, I find this blowout fairly impressive. It's right in line with with the LOL x stats from 2010 and 2013.

As for GLaDOS, this is the best possible outcome for rallybait characters. You can catch and bandwagon and maybe win a contest, but after that your best hope is getting a middling seed and retaining a fraction of strength. GLaDOS and L-Block are the best examples we have of a life after rallybait (I know Portal never won anything, but it took over the internet in 2007 in the same way Undertale did in 2015). Some strength, maybe a win or two, and it's all good. What's happened to Draven is pretty much the exact opposite of what a rallybait character could hope for. We'll probably see GLaDOS and L-Block every year. I'll be shocked if we see Draven again.
---

Nanis23 posted...

Unfortunately for fans of those niche characters like Geno and Isaac (Hi!)

Why're you a fan of Isaac?
---

Logience posted...

Nanis23 posted...

Unfortunately for fans of those niche characters like Geno and Isaac (Hi!)

Why're you a fan of Isaac?

Fan of Golden Sun, don't really care about Isaac himself.
Just having a rep from that series would make me happy
---

Nanis23 posted...

Fan of Golden Sun,

Why tho?
---

Strange Ulti doesn't mention how Valve being so bad has probably contributed to GLaDOS's decline.

Considering what Bowser did to Gordon, you would think Mewtwo would get a better % if he had any hope of beating Tifa. Though considering how well she did the rest of the contest...
---

Division 7 Round 1: (7)King Dedede vs (10)Revolver Ocelot

(7)King Dedede - 15157 [49.51%]
(10)Revolver Ocelot - 15457 [50.49%]
Total Votes - 30614
Prediction Percentage - 55.66%

Dedede (2008c) VS Revolver Ocelot (2008c)

Dedede has a strength of 15.97.
Revolver Ocelot has a strength of 22.67.

Revolver Ocelot wins with 64.78% of the vote!

LOL X STATS

Before every contest we get a series of prediction topics where people analyze each match. It's a super fun series of topics and you get some really good users making really good points. But every now and again you get a huge dud, and this match was it. Ocelot had a 100% chance to win, really guys? Have you been paying attention to how loathed Konami is right now? OR how insane Smash hype is right now? Come on bros, there was no way this match was going to follow the stats. I almost picked Dedede and I frankly wish I would have even though he lost. I absolutely love the guy. He's a big, overly friendly but overly competitive dude who wants to eat all the food and always teams up with the hero when needed. He gets into some fights with the hero, but hey! Gotta keep things lively! He also swings around a megaton hammer that explodes for fun, belly flops on people to KO them in Smash, sits on people to KO them in Smash, does the foot-foot-foot-foot-foot air dance, chain grabs people, and this is his main taunt.

https://cdn.gamer-network.net/2018/usgamer/dedede-2.png

What's not to love? Of course he was going to give Ocelot a good fight!

When the match first started, things were even for a few minutes before King Dedede started slowly climbing. And when I say slow, I mean 5-10 votes per update with the occasional Ocelot run. The king's a bit heavy, so it's hard for the guy to climb up. Give him a break, okay? I've been there. Losing weight is tough, but you gotta start somewhere. Down 150 and still dropping, son.

Ahem.

Dedede was able to peak at 168 early, but Ocelot kept stalling, making cuts, or going on the occasional run to keep Dedede from actually winning the match. It continued like this all throughout the evening, past midnight, and alllllllll night long. The best thing Dedede was able to manage was a 200 vote lead, but Ocelot was able to stall that one out too. We finally got an answer to how this match would go as the morning vote started trickling in. Around 4 am, Ocelot finally started taking the match over. By 5:30 we were tied, and from there it was all about who would win the morning vote.

One would assume the Nintendo character would take the morning vote, but not today my friends. Remember that slow climb Dedede made at the beginning of the match? Ocelot started doing that in the morning, and after spending all morning fighting with Dedede with the match in the 100-150 range, noon came and just buried the king. This match never got completely out of control, as you'll see in a second, but Dedede never came close to winning once noon came.
---

There was, however, one major silver lining for King Dedede in this match.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S53fZTbKHG0" data-time="

328 votes! It beat Garrus/Ramza by almost 100, which is nuts.

Make no mistake here though, Ocelot may have won this match but this was a horrible result. He was supposed to break 60%, and even the oracle people who had sniffed a rat didn't see this coming. Their consensus was 55%. 50.5% is just a total embarrassment, and it required a small miracle with the morning vote, a superhuman effort to not get buried at night, a small reddit rally, and the double votes from registered users to avoid a very embarrassing upset.

There was however a silver lining for Ocelot, which is that he finally came up clutch in an unexpectedly close match. He has a bit of a history choking these away. In 2005 no one thought anything of his match with Pac-Man, and then he chokes out of no where. In 2007, he gets this super close win over Jill Valentine for second place in his round one 4way, and then in round two he gets in this weird battle for second place with Kefka and Marcus Fenix. Ocelot lost that one close too, in a match that never should have been in doubt. Who the hell is Marcus Fenix? Then 2008 happens and Jill Valentine erases Ocelot's one moment. 2010 was probably his worst ever match, because for once he was the one making things close unexpectedly. Pokemon Trainer Red was a massive favorite, and Ocelot made it close by some miracle. But as usual, Ocelot lost.

So for Ocelot to win a close match like this, and set a record in the process, was an exorcism of sorts for the dude. But given his luck, Dedede will get a rematch next time and beat him by 300. We'll see.
---

The only rep from Golden Sun should be Felix, the true protagonist of the first two games. Dude was out to save the world from the first game even if it meant defying Vale's laws and siding with assholes who would rather be assholes than explain their motives and reasoning.

And then Camelot repays Felix for saving the world by completely leaving him out of the third game. Nice.
---

Ulti_PCA posted...

I almost picked Dedede and I frankly wish I would have even though he lost

You tell me
I almost took Ridley > Big Boss
---

TsunamiXXVIII posted...

trdl23 posted...

Ulti_PCA posted...

Also, level with me. Are the games any good?

Yes. Yes yes yes yes. God, yes.

With the shitshow that Square has become, Atlus has become the last bastion of good JRPGs from a major developer (though I don't play DQ so maybe that franchise hasn't become garbage?). However, you have to really embrace the fact that it's 50% JRPG dungeon-crawler, 50% Japanese high-school simulator.

You've obviously been playing the wrong Atlus games, then. Try playing something from the mainline Shin Megami Tensei instead of the Persona sub-series. IV is pretty good, and Strange Journey is outstanding. No high school simulator to be found. Strange Journey has you as a member of the military, part of a task force sent to investigate some strange dimensional rift that has opened in Antarctica.

Also there was a non-SMT Atlus game that I've frequently hyped up, goes by the name Stella Glow?

Im confused. The SMT games are great, yeah. I only mentioned the high school simulation because Ulti specifically asked about Persona.
---

I picked Dedede by complete mistake, and only noticed it after bracket lockdown.

Would have picked Oceloit if I had noticed, but lol
---

Isaac is the most recognizable GS character, and if anyone gets in Smash it'll probably be him.
---

Here is a fun question.

How far down the food chain do we think DeDeDe is? Like is he even top 30 Nintendo? Top 40? Top 50?

For the sake of the question let's assume that any Gen 1 Pokemon that hasn't been in yet doesn't count.
---

Division 7 Round 1: (2)Mega Man X vs (15)Isabelle

(2)Mega Man X - 24693 [80.65%]
(15)Isabelle - 5923 [19.35%]
Total Votes - 30616
Prediction Percentage - 84.13%

Mega Man X put his hat into the ring for the division title in dominant fashion as division 7's first round came to a close, and it took us back to the 2002 days of the classic Mega Man matches where he beat the absolute piss out Ms. Pac-Man and Serious Sam. TUHDISDAY those are some of our biggest blowouts ever. And though we're well past the days where characters and games regularly break 90% in polls, what Mega Man X did here in this match is about the best one could ask for in modern times.

To put this a different way, Link couldn't break 80% on Ganondorf this year. Yeah.

Also I think this match might be decent evidence against the whole Smash thing, unless Isabelle would be trash enough without it to get 5-10% against Mega Man X here without it, which she could very well be. As for the division, obviously we know what happened now because if we only factor in round one I honestly think Luigi's performance looked the best. 81% on Isabelle or 73% on Geno just doesn't look as good as 77% on Edgeworth to me. But what do I know, I'm just a hindsight 50-50 guy :p
---

People really hated the Isabelle announcement

It also didnt help that this was during the Smash Direct and people were upset that the Grinch leak was fake
---

I don't know if the Dedede vs Ocelot x-stats misprediction counts as an lol x-stats moment when it was using decade-old information.
---

edit: woops misread
---

Eh, given what we saw from all the fourth tier smash characters (Rosalina, Pac-Man, Bayonetta), it is kinda surprising that a fifth tier Smash character ended up being so weak. Prior to this match, if you had asked me, I would have taken Isabelle over both Edgeworth and Geno, but clearly that is not the case
---

Anagram posted...

I don't know if the Dedede vs Ocelot x-stats misprediction counts as an lol x-stats moment when it was using decade-old information.

Have to agree with this, 2008 was a huge year for MGS, with MGS4 and Snake in Brawl. To try and compare that to where the franchise now is laughable. I took Ocelot here without thinking, but I never once thought he would get more than 53-54% on Dedede
---

Yeah I meant the match itself
---