Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1315

(+) Yeah! (+)

Not even rats can flee from the LAW!

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~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
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B = Character Weaker than A
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~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
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ya go my Clink
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LeonhartFour posted...

ya go my Clink

Ahh old times.

Still remember Clinkarothio
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bump

Tag

Unless we think Sonic is stronger than eight years ago, though, this does not bode well for him against Zelda. (Unless Pikachu can 55/45 Zelda now, which is believable but highly unlikely.)
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If Link were retired, no one would be left to potentially stop another Draven-like threat.
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TheOneAboveAll posted...

Unless we think Sonic is stronger than eight years ago, though, this does not bode well for him against Zelda. (Unless Pikachu can 55/45 Zelda now, which is believable but highly unlikely.)

I mean just off the Snake > Auron result it looks like he is going to get absolutely smashed.

He did 7% worse on Auron compared to someone who lost to Zelda

Noble Nine dead and buried in the ground this contest, I'm loving this more and more.
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LinkMarioSamus posted...

Noble Nine dead and buried in the ground this contest, I'm loving this more and more.

I bet you are loving because the finals are literally looking to be Link vs Mario vs Samus

It's really a shame given Tifa's amazing run, that she's not going to face the other side of the losers bracket. Seeing her face Pikachu or Crono would be fun. Even if she might do better, there's no way she beats Mario or Samus.
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ctesjbuvf posted...

It's really a shame given Tifa's amazing run, that she's not going to face the other side of the losers bracket. Seeing her face Pikachu or Crono would be fun. Even if she might do better, there's no way she beats Mario or Samus.

Another victim of Allen's poor choice of Losers Bracket format.
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By percentage, Tifa's win over Sephiroth was the fourth-worst in a 1v1 contest, trailing only Undertale's last three wins. (So yeah, more people had Undertale winning its division than had Tifa winning hers, losing to Samus, and then beating the Mario-Sephiroth loser.) It's tied for tenth overall with L-Block > Sonic, trailing (of course) the aforementioned three Undertale matches and final two L-Block matches, the last three Draven matches (so starting with Draven > Link), and Squirtle > Cloud.

Bowser's LB1 win is also in both top 25s. It's #20 overall and #10 1v1.

It probably won't be the last time we see an incredibly low number this contest. Corrections or not, Zelda was considered the underdog against Snake (both in Second Chance and among those who had her winning her division initially), while Sonic was an underdog against the Division 6 winner (both before and after it was known for certain who that was), so it seems highly likely that the bracket favorite in Sonic-Zelda is Snake. If, as most of us are now presuming, Zelda wins that, the number will be extremely low, but even if Sonic wins it could be pretty low!
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How many matches did Undertsle have to win to win the division? 3? Because just by probability/permuations 5 matches deep versus 3 matches is a very big difference. Even someone 50/50 in every match is down to to 3.125% by the 5th match

4.
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BLOGFAQS=I hadn't a SINGLE match right on Losers Bracket and I am still on Leaderboard! Don't know why. I mean the main bracket wasn't hard to guess. This has to be some kind of record! I guess though there have to be others that didn't found a single match and are on the Board.

Came back from work, checked the results. This is what I have to say.
1st match=I was expecting Pikachu to score at least 35%. Damn it! Link is too strong! Yeah I know but still.
2nd match=I was expecting to be closer. Guess Smash boost helped Cloud.
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The Owner of FF9 posted...

If Link were retired, no one would be left to potentially stop another Draven-like threat.

Link didn't stop Draven though.

And Ocarina got pwned by Undertale.
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Crono did a lot or is doing a lot better in Europe than I expected.

Link could be pushing 69% by the end of the match. Absolutely crazy how far ahead he is of everyone.

Cloud should break 42-43 % on him but thats as much as ANYONE will do this contest. And even that is poor. Cloud got 52 47 48 and 46 or around those % against him in the past. This might be his worst but st this rate he should focus more on looking good against Samus and Mario.
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Link/LoZ has historically been one of the worst options to stop a rally (0-3 against them). He and OoT are probably the biggest test those rally entries have run up against, but they are also at absolutely their most determined when they face him.

Regarding this match... no matter how pathetic it sounds, this beatdown from my boy against one of my lesser liked characters is one of the best birthday gifts I could ever hope to receive. Thing of BEAUTY watching the Hyrule Hammer in good form, though for those who missed it, it's still incomparable to the old days when he'd put up EIGHTY ONE PERCENT against Yoshi.

If Link marches through this bracket in his sleep, which he is looking likely to do, I'd be in favor of retiring him completely from the next CB, save for the final bonus poll against the bracket champ (it doesn't even need to count for points, though it can). I also think we can have a much smaller tournament of champions by excluding only Mario, Samus, and Cloud - akin to 2005. Everyone else should be in the main bracket because they are clearly fair game, though I suppose the idea of Zelda being a top threat to win a contest might be unpalatable to many.
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CaptainOfCrush posted...

Link/LoZ has historically been one of the worst options to stop a rally (0-3 against them). He and OoT are probably the biggest test those rally entries have run up against, but they are also at absolutely their most determined when they face him.

Regarding this match... no matter how pathetic it sounds, this beatdown from my boy against one of my lesser liked characters is one of the best birthday gifts I could ever hope to receive. Thing of BEAUTY watching the Hyrule Hammer in good form, though for those who missed it, it's still incomparable to the old days when he'd put up EIGHTY ONE PERCENT against Yoshi.

If Link marches through this bracket in his sleep, which he is looking likely to do, I'd be in favor of retiring him completely from the next CB, save for the final bonus poll against the bracket champ (it doesn't even need to count for points, though it can). I also think we can have a much smaller tournament of champions by excluding only Mario, Samus, and Cloud - akin to 2005. Everyone else should be in the main bracket because they are clearly fair game, though I suppose the idea of Zelda being a top threat to win a contest might be unpalatable to many.

Yeah Link is the GOAT in these contests. Cloud wasn't beating up Crono as much as I expected.

So Pikachu is the huge favorite against Ganondorf in a match now, right? I would just encourage people to be careful with such a match-up since we're seeing the LoZ-series can SFF the Pokemon-series afterall and we know Ganon got Bacondorf'd against Mega Man's sprite so it's an unlevel comparison when put beside Pikachu's upset over Mega Man.

I'd take Pikachu > Ganondorf to be clear, but I wouldn't rule out Ganondorf.
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Yuri_LowelI posted...

Crono did a lot or is doing a lot better in Europe than I expected.

Link could be pushing 69% by the end of the match. Absolutely crazy how far ahead he is of everyone.

Cloud should break 42-43 % on him but thats as much as ANYONE will do this contest. And even that is poor. Cloud got 52 47 48 and 46 or around those % against him in the past. This might be his worst but st this rate he should focus more on looking good against Samus and Mario.

I'm starting to think Cloud might not even make it to the grand finals

@Dfy556 He will not. His next match is against Link and he will lose.
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Safer_777 posted...

@Dfy556 He will not. His next match is against Link and he will lose.

I think he means via the Losers Bracket
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Ilishe posted...

The Owner of FF9 posted...

If Link were retired, no one would be left to potentially stop another Draven-like threat.

Link didn't stop Draven though.

And Ocarina got pwned by Undertale.

"potentially" being the operative word.

I specifically inserted it before I hit post.
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Cloud might have enough to get there despite dominant performances from Nintendo's big 3. There's a good chance he'll need to fight through both Samus and Mario to get there, though... and man, he'll have earned it if he can get through that murderer's row.
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No way. Mario or Snake or Samus will beat him. Yeah he is stronger than Sephiroth for sure but no way he beats Mario, Samus or Snake.
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Safer_777 posted...

@Dfy556 He will not. His next match is against Link and he will lose.

I guess they call it "FINAL BATTLE" here but that's what I was referring to. Usually that match is called "Grand Finals" in tournaments.

I like including Link in the contest albeit in smaller ways like this contest, the Battle Royale, and the Tournament of Champions all do.

One idea I've wanted to see done for years is a gauntlet. I used to advocate for a whole contest like this, starting from the least nominated character and working our way up to the most nominated character...but really, I think just removing the Noble Nine or the top sixteen nominated characters or something along those lines would be appropriate for a gauntlet after the main bracket is completed. There would be lots of close matches and it would limit the impact of our heaviest hitters.
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Zelda might be the new #2.
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Actually only Link is the problem. Every other person can lose to someone else. Did anyone before the contest expected Pikachu to beat MM or Zelda to beat Snake? But of course everyone expected Link to not lose barring a rally of course.
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Ridiculous scenario in which Link loses : Link vs Zelda with Zelda rsffing Link.

Safer_777 posted...

Actually only Link is the problem. Every other person can lose to someone else. Did anyone before the contest expected Pikachu to beat MM or Zelda to beat Snake? But of course everyone expected Link to not lose barring a rally of course.

I had Zelda over Snake....

It was obvious.

Before the contest? No way man. Seriously?
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Calling a 50/50 match obvious is really never right even if you called it.
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Safer_777 posted...

Before the contest? No way man. Seriously?

I said it was likely befor the contest and guaranteed it (going so far as to say she is going to 54% him, which she should have done, badtastefaqs) after round 1.

Yall clowns were still denying it day of

Am I correct in stating that Samus was projected to get 56% on Mario in 2005? Mario ended up with nearly 60% in that match and Samus is projected at 52% on Mario now through Tifa/Sephiroth. I'm wondering if Mario can go even higher in tonight's match.

I think Samus has figured out SFF a little better since then, especially if you consider how 55 on Zelda became 63 on Zelda in 2010. Also, the games contest saw SM pummel SMG 60-40, so I think the gap between Metroid and the other Nintendo Heavy hitters should have shrunk since '05.

The_Ctes posted...

Calling a 50/50 match obvious is really never right even if you called it.

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garetha200 posted...

I think Samus has figured out SFF a little better since then, especially if you consider how 55 on Zelda became 63 on Zelda in 2010. Also, the games contest saw SM pummel SMG 60-40, so I think the gap between Metroid and the other Nintendo Heavy hitters should have shrunk since '05.

God I hope so.... but BadTasteFAQs man....

There really are no two ways about it.

Youre a fucking moron if you vote Mario. Not just over Samus.... over virtually anyone. Most of his games are amazing and after Pokmon its probably the series I spent the most time in.... I dont care how good his games are, he is an awful, AWFUL
character, though to call him a character in a very low bar. He has none.

FinaIFantasy posted...

garetha200 posted...

I think Samus has figured out SFF a little better since then, especially if you consider how 55 on Zelda became 63 on Zelda in 2010. Also, the games contest saw SM pummel SMG 60-40, so I think the gap between Metroid and the other Nintendo Heavy hitters should have shrunk since '05.

God I hope so.... but BadTasteFAQs man....

There really are no two ways about it.

Youre a fucking moron if you vote Mario. Not just over Samus.... over virtually anyone. Most of his games are amazing and after Pokmon its probably the series I spent the most time in.... I dont care how good his games are, he is an awful, AWFUL
character, though to call him a character in a very low bar. He has none.

Mamma mia!
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Eh, voting for a character because you like the series they represent doesn't make you a "moron". I voted Crono over Bowser and Crono is a really bad Character, but Chrono Trigger was just too amazing of a game.

HaRRicH posted...

I like including Link in the contest albeit in smaller ways like this contest, the Battle Royale, and the Tournament of Champions all do.

One idea I've wanted to see done for years is a gauntlet. I used to advocate for a whole contest like this, starting from the least nominated character and working our way up to the most nominated character...but really, I think just removing the Noble Nine or the top sixteen nominated characters or something along those lines would be appropriate for a gauntlet after the main bracket is completed. There would be lots of close matches and it would limit the impact of our heaviest hitters.

The issue of a gauntlet is that underseeded characters could monopolized matches for a while. Aerith was a 15 seed and would have lasted days/weeks. Pokemon tend to be underseeded too, Zelda was only a 4 seed and likely would have survived over for a long time as she went through the rest of the bracket before potentially losing to Mario.

I guess we could limit the effects of long runs by splitting the bracket in 8 divisions and having them run concurrently. Sure we may have 12 straight matches of Aerith beating up Division 5, but the other divisions may have interesting stuff going on.
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CaptainOfCrush posted...

Link/LoZ has historically been one of the worst options to stop a rally (0-3 against them). He and OoT are probably the biggest test those rally entries have run up against, but they are also at absolutely their most determined when they face him.

Regarding this match... no matter how pathetic it sounds, this beatdown from my boy against one of my lesser liked characters is one of the best birthday gifts I could ever hope to receive. Thing of BEAUTY watching the Hyrule Hammer in good form, though for those who missed it, it's still incomparable to the old days when he'd put up EIGHTY ONE PERCENT against Yoshi.

If Link marches through this bracket in his sleep, which he is looking likely to do, I'd be in favor of retiring him completely from the next CB, save for the final bonus poll against the bracket champ (it doesn't even need to count for points, though it can). I also think we can have a much smaller tournament of champions by excluding only Mario, Samus, and Cloud - akin to 2005. Everyone else should be in the main bracket because they are clearly fair game, though I suppose the idea of Zelda being a top threat to win a contest might be unpalatable to many.

Well right now we are having a hard time figuring out who #2 is so maybe just retiring Link would be fine. We might know it more clearly after the contest but then give it another 3 years and it would get unclear again. While LAW is LAW.

Also a final match with Link would be better not counting points, because I've always found it weird that the match that counted the most points was the easiest (assuming no rallies).

Speaking of which, correctly predicting Link to win (assuming he wins) nets you 140 points this year if you pick him in both finals.

FinaIFantasy posted...

garetha200 posted...

I think Samus has figured out SFF a little better since then, especially if you consider how 55 on Zelda became 63 on Zelda in 2010. Also, the games contest saw SM pummel SMG 60-40, so I think the gap between Metroid and the other Nintendo Heavy hitters should have shrunk since '05.

God I hope so.... but BadTasteFAQs man....

There really are no two ways about it.

Youre a fucking moron if you vote Mario. Not just over Samus.... over virtually anyone. Most of his games are amazing and after Pokmon its probably the series I spent the most time in.... I dont care how good his games are, he is an awful, AWFUL
character, though to call him a character in a very low bar. He has none.

Can't wait to vote for Mario tonight!
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Changed my mind, I'm gonna vote Mario now, thanks MWC.
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Question - is any Pikachu performance here can be considered bad at this point?
I mean, his strength has already been established, he beat Mega Man (that in turn beat Ganondorf easily) and looked great all contest
And yet...sub-32% looks bad. But it feels like more about the LAW than Pikachu
So in reality even if Pikachu got 25% here it would be more about Link beasting than Pikachu sucking, I think
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It's the LAW SFFing the RAT, so there's not much that can be drawn from this result.
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FinaIFantasy posted...

garetha200 posted...

I think Samus has figured out SFF a little better since then, especially if you consider how 55 on Zelda became 63 on Zelda in 2010. Also, the games contest saw SM pummel SMG 60-40, so I think the gap between Metroid and the other Nintendo Heavy hitters should have shrunk since '05.

God I hope so.... but BadTasteFAQs man....

There really are no two ways about it.

Youre a fucking moron if you vote Mario. Not just over Samus.... over virtually anyone. Most of his games are amazing and after Pokmon its probably the series I spent the most time in.... I dont care how good his games are, he is an awful, AWFUL
character, though to call him a character in a very low bar. He has none.

Either you never played a Mario RPG or you have shit taste

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