Board 8 > Character Battle X Contest Analysis Crew - Part 5

(+) Yeah! (+)

I think DK's result on Leon is being really overrated. Considering that (in hindsight) Leon didn't do very good on Dragonborn, I think it's very likely that he just fell. Resident Evil hasn't looked amazing this contest and Leon has the farthest to fall.

The real question to ask is whether or not Vivi can match 57% on Tidus. I think he can.
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Round 3 Zero vs. Wario

Moltars Analysis

Zero
Round 1 - 74.18% vs. Primrose
Round 2 - 56.15% vs. Knuckles the Echidna

Wario
Round 1 - 64.56% vs. Monika
Round 2 - 60.97% vs. Master Hand

woo a break match

get outta here wario

monika should be here instead ahaha hope you havent forgo-

Moltars Bracket: Zero

Moltars Prediction: Zero 64%

transiences Analysis

lol Wario. I'm tempted to just write that and move on to the next match.

Wario's probably not that far from Captain Falcon strengthwise, but he's more like a Pac-Man (pre-2018). He'll drop to anyone who's notable. Zero is more than notable, and is even part of the wider Nintendo family. He's gonna kill Wario.

transience's prediction: Zero with 65.33%

Leonharts Analysis

There are a lot of potentially juicy showdowns in round 3. This is not one of them. While Zero hasnt looked like a world beater (or even someone who should be favored to win the division), he shouldnt struggle with Wario of all people. I dont even know what would be a good number for Zero to show hes got a chance next round, but I feel like itd have to be pretty high because Wario sucks. Youre about to find out how weak Noctis really is.

Leonharts Vote: Zero

Leonharts Prediction: Zero with 65.56%

Kleenexs Analysis

Wario still sucks! Zero is good, and even though he didnt put away Knuckles in the way I would normally expect from him, Wario shouldnt be a real challenge. Shouldnt being the key word. Weirder things have happened, but hopefully this wont be one of those instances.

Kleenexs Prediction: Zero with 58%

BT's Analysis

We have yet another match that is not in question at all. Wario looked like a standard 4th tier Smash character (aka low midcarder) while Zero put up a decent performance against Knuckles. The real question mark is what will happen next round when Zero goes up against Yoshi or Pikachu.

Zero ended up right around where people expected him against Knuckles, but Tails' subsequent impressive performance against Master Chief hints that the Sonic crew did indeed boost from Sonic Mania, so maybe it was a bit better than expected. 2013 stats have Zero wining with 70%, but given the unreliability of those states, coupled with Smash boost this year, it probably won't get that high. This should be a nice solid 60-40 effort to set the stage for Round 4.

BT's Prediction: Zero with 62.31%
BT's Bracket: Zero > Master Hand
BT's Vote: Zero

Crew Consensus: Zero chance he loses here.
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I wonder how many times tran and I have been within 1% of each other's predictions

feels like it happens at least once per day

oh well I kinda like having the high prediction here
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I don't think DK's % on Leon is worth a lot on its own. What it does do is validate his % on Tidus as mostly legitimate, and puts the strength you need Vivi to be to feel good about him winning at much higher than it would be with either win alone.
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My body is ready to see Zero quintupling Wario in Brazil.

Lopen's Unofficial Analysisx4

Dante vs Ganondorf
THIS PARTY IS GETTIN CRAZY. Time for ultimate submission from Ganondorf.

Dante with 1004%

Vivi vs Donkey Kong
Superstition says that Vivi should win with 56%, but the more I think about this, the more I think that 1. A Donkey Kong franchise boost makes sense (DKC was released late in the life of the SNES which would be around the same time as the PSX and we've seen them PSX icons do well) and 2. Vivi is a FRAUD. X-Stat percentages lining up against two RPG characters who could very well have been SFFed doesn't sell me alone, and that boost was really high in 2013. Not to mention Zidane being ???, and Aya Brea should be weaker this year than ever. I have no idea who is going to win, but I think it's going to be rather close. Donkey Kong has just looked more impressive this contest, with performances against Leon and Tidus that I don't think Vivi could match, and is Nintendo, so I'm going with him.

Donkey Kong with 51.15%

Zero vs Wario
Wario is no good, people. SFFing the hand doesn't make him any good. Beating fodder Monika who got hype for no realistic reason doesn't make him any good. Zero will probably get some SFF here for good measure.

Zero with 65.95%

Pikachu vs Yoshi
This is counter intuitive since it's hard to say Yoshi has looked stronger, but this match is all about calling SFF splits anyway. And to me, Yoshi, the guy who generally kills it on those favorite Mario polls is going to hold up better than Pikachu the guy who hasn't had a very good track record against Nintendo in general in these things, speaking specifically to stuff like the late rounds of the 2007 and 2008 contests. They both appeal to the same kinda cutesy fanbase with their design, so there's no x-factors that a guy like Charizard or Bowser might exploit. It's the same logic I used to take Yoshi over Luigi in 2004 and the same logic I'm using now.

Yoshi with 53.45%
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Round 3 Yoshi vs. Pikachu

Moltars Analysis

Yoshi
Round 1 - 74.27% vs. Shantae
Round 2 - 70.63% vs. Velvet Crowe

Pikachu
Round 1 - 66.41% vs. Scorpion
Round 2 - 63.41% vs. Kratos

Those previous round results tell the story here. Yoshis had some very easy competition and looked okay. Pikachu has had some good competition and looked great. It cant be denied that Pika is the favorite going into this match now.

The best argument for Yoshi at this point is to look at Bowser/Charizard, but even thats a stretch. Pikachu has looked way stronger than Charizard, and it is possible that Bowser is stronger than Yoshi now, though I think the two are still very close in strength.

Since Yoshi is a fan-favorite Mario character, I dont think he gets washed here or SFFed badly. He should manage to hold up, but Pikachu is just looking too strong this year to drop this match.

Moltars Bracket: Yoshi

Moltars Prediction: Pikachu 56%

transiences Analysis

I was looking back at contest history for fun today and saw that Yoshi once upon a time beat Luigi. That feels like such ancient history. Yoshi hasn't seemed notable for a long time. He's not weak, but he's not up there with the Luigis and Bowsers of the world anymore. He's a clear step down.

Pikachu, on the other hand, could probably hang with those guys if not beat them. He's got a great argument for best character in this bracket -- and that might even include Sephiroth. What's better, 66% on Scorpion or 65ish% on Captain Falcon? Hmmm.

Pikachu's just as weird as Sephiroth, so maybe he drops this, but I get the feeling that you have to be an icon or someone really respected to stand up to him. Yoshi.. ain't it. Luigi could be, but Yoshi ain't.

transience's prediction: Pikachu with 58.67%

Leonharts Analysis

Ive thought Pikachu is probably the strongest Pokemon for a while, and nothing Ive seen this contest has dissuaded me from that. I also think Yoshis been kinda overrated for a while, but he always gets to hide behind weird results (like Missingno in 2010) or SFF. Coming up a distant third to Squall and Sora in 2008 is a flatly embarrassing result for him, whether Fox was in the poll with him or not. Its been a while since weve seen what he can really do. Even thus far, hes gotten to skate by with a couple of cupcakes who are total unknowns. Whether through SFF or not, I expect Pikachu to make Yoshi look pretty bad here.

Leonharts Vote: Yoshi

Leonharts Prediction: Pikachu with 59.17%
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Kleenexs Analysis

Poor Yoshi. Dude always seems to get a rough draw. You put in a few of the other divisions in this contest and hes probably a favorite to win, but he runs into a PokeBuzzSaw here. I dont know if this ends up as the SFF beatdown we can sometimes see in Nintendo vs. Nintendo matches, but Pikachu has looked good enough that I dont envision Yoshi really challenging in this match.

Kleenexs Prediction: Pikachu with 55%

Guests Analysis - Luster Soldier

With both Charizard and Mewtwo failing to win their debated round 2 matches, Pikachu now has a small chance of being upset by Yoshi here. This is very unlikely to happen since Pikachu has shown that it is in a separate tier above Charizard and Mewtwo based on the matches against Scorpion and Kratos. Both performances suggest that Pikachu has Near Elite strength, which would put it out of Yoshi's range. In addition, I would put Yoshi's strength as slightly below that of Bowser, making Yoshi's chance of winning this match even harder.

At some point before the contest started, I remember a post from Ulti where he said something along the lines of "Pokemon doesn't seem to get the same kind of love on this site that the rest of Nintendo gets". This was in some topic debating Sora/Red. Ulti seems to have a point here, because Pokemon does seem to be perceived differently from the rest of Nintendo despite being a Nintendo owned IP. I think it has a lot to do with a lot of people quitting Pokemon after Gen 1 or Gen 2 and not returning to the series again. In Charizard/Bowser, Bowser actually did around 1.5% better with registered users. For how well Pokemon does with registered users, Charizard's support with registered users folded when going up against an true Nintendo character. Yoshi/Pikachu is a similar type of match-up. Pikachu's much higher strength compared to Charizard means that it has a better chance of retaining a lot of support with registered users, and Pikachu might also command more respect among people who have quit Pokemon than someone like Charizard or Mewtwo.

Luster Soldier's Bracket: Pikachu

Luster Soldier's Prediction: Pikachu - 54.56%

Crew Consensus: Pikachu shocks us yet again.
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watch Pikachu put like 65% on Yoshi here
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A bit weird that I'm actually the lowest prediction for Pikachu.
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anyway the crew will owe me live recorded versions of the DK rap after they're wrong 3 times in a row on him
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ib vivi with 56 again
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feelin okay about Vivi here so far

rat is disappointing
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the dk comeback starts at the third update yet again

it's clockwork
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What if the rumored stuffer decided to be sneakier this year ?
DK to win it all !

I'm okay with DK winning the contest

Rise of the planet of the apes
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ah shoot this might be too tall of a hill for DK

still, good show. and heck yeah vivi
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eat shit DK
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also wow casuals got killed by ammy and kosmos
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I guess Ganon vs. Vivi is Dante vs. DK eh
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Imagine a world where Dante would lose to DK

nightmare fuel
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So are we in agreement that Pikachu is kind of disappointing here? Bit if an underperformance for a character that some people were calling Top 10ish.
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This whole contest is Nightmare fuel give me rallies back
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Im not that worried about Pikachu. This is a Nintendo match and Pikachu has always been Weird.
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KamikazePotato posted...

So are we in agreement that Pikachu is kind of disappointing here? Bit if an underperformance for a character that some people were calling Top 10ish.

I think my theory of Yoshi rSFFing him was correct but the power differential is too high
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This is what I expected the match to be like. People were giving Pikachu far too much credit.
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I don't think any potential #10 people have really been impressing lately. I guess Kirby and MMX looked pretty good? Zelda too. Who knows though.
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round 3 starting makes me a little disappointed that all this will be for absolutely nothing. like, there's no winner to this first part of the contest. it's just who gets fed to the big dogs.

in a way, removing the top 8 would be a heck of a lot more fun. sephiroth might ruin the fun anyway, but yeah. i might change my mind when the big dogs come out and start competing with each other instead of watching the babies go to work on each other.
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I was surprised at how high the Crew were going with the Pikachu predictions because I saw a lot of predictions in the Oracle topic that were under 55%.

transcience posted...

Im not that worried about Pikachu. This is a Nintendo match and Pikachu has always been Weird.

Pikachu has been weird, but so has Pokemon in general. I talked about this during the second part of my guest write-up.

Unlike Charizard and Mewtwo, Pikachu fits the iconic character mold far better than the other Pokemon. Pikachu is also more recognizable with the general voters than the other Pokemon, so it had a far greater chance of beating an high Nintendo midcarder like Yoshi than Charizard had against Bowser.
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Pikachu's gonna end up just fine - Yoshi's always been an early darling.
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Pikachu's got a strong early vote too, but yeah he's starting to look a lot better now

Also


Suck it DK
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Lopen posted...

KamikazePotato posted...

So are we in agreement that Pikachu is kind of disappointing here? Bit if an underperformance for a character that some people were calling Top 10ish.

I think my theory of Yoshi rSFFing him was correct but the power differential is too high

Definitely possible. Remember how people initially thought Yoshi would be really strong because he won those "favorite Mario character" polls? Maybe that theory wasn't totally wrong, and Yoshi really is a rSFF threat.

transcience posted...

Im not that worried about Pikachu. This is a Nintendo match and Pikachu has always been Weird.

And Yoshi hasn't? Pre-fourways, he beat Luigi one year and lost to Bowser another year, but when Bowser and Luigi ran into each other in fourways Luigi came out on top. None of those three would seem to have had much reason to boost in power independently of the other two during the time frame covered by those three matches... though if anything, Yoshi would have the least reason to boost. I feel like Yoshi > Luigi is the flukiest of those three results.

Though if you take the 2010 X-Stats at face value, Pikachu is actually impressing here! Not that I trust either character's raw 2010 value...
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Chun Li could've done some good bracket busting with alternate placement it looks like.
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makes me wonder if Sephiroth is in any kind of danger
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from Ryu?

I thought about that yesterday, but I dunno, I think hell be fine. Im a lot less down on the FF7 crew after the past couple days
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yeah. I don't think it's real either, but if Chun Li's within striking distance of Dante, who knows
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that dorf match last round feels like a weird anomaly. dont have a good explanation for it, but Chun being that string just doesnt jive.
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Not looking forward to figuring out the stats for this division after Link vs. Ganondorf
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you mean Link vs. Vivi
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Why would 55% on Yoshi in a 1v1 be disappointing for any elite? The Square non-Noble 9 elites would kill for a percentage like this. Hell, Ganon and Zelda might too.
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KamikazePotato posted...

Not looking forward to figuring out the stats for this division after Link vs. Ganondorf

Good thing we have the Loser Bracket to help make SFF adjustments.
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CaptainOfCrush posted...

Why would 55% on Yoshi in a 1v1 be disappointing for any elite? The Square non-Noble 9 elites would kill for a percentage like this. Hell, Ganon and Zelda might too.

This is how I feel, too. When did 55% on Yoshi become a disappointment? That feels really good for Pikachu. Unless the expectations were him hanging with, I dont know, Mega Man or something.

I think people overreacted a bit because Yoshi started around 47% and Pokemon usually is frontloaded.

Now that he's dropped to around 45% there isn't necessarily anything fishy going on aside from a lack of Pikachu SFFing Yoshi.
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Lopen posted...

I think people overreacted a bit because Yoshi started around 47% and Pokemon usually is frontloaded.

Now that he's dropped to around 45% there isn't necessarily anything fishy going on aside from a lack of Pikachu SFFing Yoshi.

Yup
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heroicmario posted...

When did 55% on Yoshi become a disappointment?

Squall got 57.86% on him in 2008!

flopachu confirmed

Zero got this
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LeonhartFour posted...

heroicmario posted...

When did 55% on Yoshi become a disappointment?

Squall got 57.86% on him in 2008!

flopachu confirmed

Zero got this

there must always be a fraud

when mewtwo fell, the soul of a fraud passed on to the rat
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I'm not impressed by Zero's performance. He needed to go big for me to consider him the favorite against Pikachu next round and this isn't big.
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but Wario could beat Kratos, right?

...right?
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I don't take Wario over anyone that people even remotely care about.
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