Board 8 > Character Battle X Contest Analysis Crew - Part 5

(+) Yeah! (+)

the question is if kratos qualifies on this website
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what about someone a lot of people actively dislike
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I'd probably take Scorpion and Kratos over Wario but I would fully expect to be wrong. Feels like one of those matches that would be 51-49 and that scrappy Nintendo underdog wins.
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I feel like the new GoW redeemed Kratos as a character in the eyes of a lot of people. I'd give Wario the edge over Kratos from a few years ago, but not now.
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Before this contest, no way I'd take Wario. But every few days, we see the shitty 4th tier Smash character impressing. I can't see Wario losing either matchup anymore.
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Yeeeeah, the point about Kratos being a character people care about here feels valid. There is a batch of characters like Kratos and Shepard and Drake where I feel they are interchangeably going to lose to anyone kinda decent.

okay so how about Kratos vs. Zidane

because based on early results in the X-Stats, Wario and Zidane are looking to be pretty close to equal
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I would probably take Zidane there? dunno
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actually, who knows. this contest has thrown all of my number crunching in the garbage and now I just have to say 'can you beat a generic smash character?' or 'can you beat a dude who's up gamefaqs's general wheelhouse but isn't actually that popular?'
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Kratos beating Zidane does feel more normal

Honestly Wario probably loses to Kratos too I mean for all my talk of scrappy underdogs King Dedede and King K Rool did ultimately lose.
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Zidane (2013c) VS Kratos (2013c)

Zidane has a strength of 28.72.
Kratos has a strength of 22.02.

Zidane wins with 61.66% of the vote!
A win of 12,588 with 53,960 total votes cast.

Even if you assume a Zidane drop, that's a lot of ground to cover
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Yeah, it's hard to say. Kratos has shown off legit midcard strength in the past. For all my laughing at Charizard for being a fraud, 45% on him in 2010 is a solid result. He's done really well on Alucard and Ryu before, too.
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Zidane (2013c) VS Knuckles (2013c)

Zidane has a strength of 28.72.
Knuckles has a strength of 24.86.

Zidane wins with 56.72% of the vote!
A win of 7,252 with 53,960 total votes cast.
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Zidane's strength was derived through two double frauds in Squirtle and Dante

which makes Zidane a triple fraud I guess
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LeonhartFour posted...

but Wario could beat Kratos, right?

...right?

i immediately thought "yes" then immediately thought "no way"

wario is the worst
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Knuckles rebounded this year I think. Not that we had super reliable great numbers on him to begin with. Take his 2013 value with a grain of salt.
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Either way, Zero/Pikachu should be an interesting match, and should be pretty close.
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KamikazePotato posted...

Take his 2013 value with a grain of salt.

I already took salt with Zidane's value and I need to watch my blood pressure.
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KamikazePotato posted...

Knuckles rebounded this year I think. Not that we had super reliable great numbers on him to begin with. Take his 2013 value with a grain of salt.

I still don't get why people don't understand the Sonic Mania boost. Was everyone on Board 8 too busy playing the latest Fails game, and Doki Doki Literature Club to play the first good Sonic game in 25 years?
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BlAcK TuRtLe posted...

the first good Sonic game in 5 years?

fixed
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LeonhartFour posted...

Zidane's strength was derived through two double frauds in Squirtle and Dante

which makes Zidane a triple fraud I guess

Actually, I derived Dante through Zidane because Zidane seemed pretty consistent from 2010 to 2013. The other options were a lot worse. Think I made the right choice because Zidane seems about the same this year.
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The real discovery here is that everyone is a fraud.

Except Link.

LeonhartFour posted...

BlAcK TuRtLe posted...

the first good Sonic game in 5 years?

fixed

Thank you.
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Might as well make Link the fodder line

heroicmario posted...

The real discovery here is that everyone is a fraud.

Except Link.

and Chun tbh
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I wouldn't take Zero over Yoshi, so my boy is sadly boned next round. I always felt this match decided the division winner, and Pika's making easy work of it.

A Zero upset would probably be the happiest result of the contest for me; I just don't see it.
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I thought pre-contest that Zero could beat Yoshi, but I also didn't have very much respect for the dino.
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nonbelievers itt
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https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7330

Sephiroth does well against Falcon.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7331

Ammy does okay against Lara.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7332

Ryu looks very good against Shep.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7333

KOS-MOS does as expected.

Crew Predictions: 86/96

Next Round Thoughts: Seph and Ryu are still the favorites to win.

Crew Prediction Challenge:

Moltar: 84
transience: 83
Leonhart: 80
Kleenex: 78
Guest: 74

Crew Accuracy Challenge: Moltar gets the point for Seph, Leonhart gets the point for Ammy, Kleenex gets the point for Ryu, and transience get the point for KOS-MOS.

Kleenex: 24
Guest: 21 (BetrayedTangy, SuperNiceDog (2), pjbasis, garetha200 (4), ZenOfThunder, Ranticoot (2), Hbthebattle (2), NowItsAngeTime, spooky96, RoseChevalier, Lopen (2), paulg235, DoctorJimmy133, Janus5k)
transience: 21
Moltar: 17
Leonhart: 16
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"accuracy" challenge
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it's nice that we all got a point today
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Round 3 Pokemon Trainer Red vs. Big Boss

Moltars Analysis

Red
Round 1 - 75.32% vs. Neptune
Round 2 - 50.90% vs. Sora

Big Boss
Round 1 - 56.66% vs. Ridley
Round 2 - 52.87% vs. Crash Bandicoot

51% on Sora vs. 53% on Crash hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

After watching The Boss and Ocelot both get crushed in their losses, seeing Big Boss (hopefully) go down respectably isnt going to look too bad in comparison. Red isnt on the level of Zelda and MMX, and beating Sora, who now is a high-midcarder at best, doesnt put him much further away from Big Boss and Crash.

Moltars Bracket: Sora (lol)

Moltars Prediction: Red 55%

transiences Analysis

I mean, I guess you kinda have to pick Red here, right? Dude beat Sora, albeit narrowly, and Crash nearly upended Big Boss on his own. Big Boss isn't getting the Naked Snake picture we were all hoping for and clearly isn't worth much more than, let's say, Yuna.

In reality, I'm pretty skeptical of Red here. What if Sora's just junk, just like Aqua is junk, just like Riku is junk? I already had picked Big Boss over Sora and Red's worth 51% so why not Big Boss? I'm not going there because he's been so bad, but this whole top of the bracket seems bad. More on that next round, I guess.

transience's prediction: Red with 51.22%

Leonharts Analysis

Lets be honest: Would anyone really be surprised if Crash Bandicoot got 47-48% on Sora? Hes lost all benefit of the doubt at this point. Heck, Charizard gave up 47-48% to Terra, and Reds going to be in the same ballpark, if not weaker than that. Sora losing that match said more about his weakness than it did about the Pokemon trainers strength. I think Red is probably closer to being the guy who narrowly beat Ocelot than the guy we saw tearing through the bracket in 2013.

All that to say Im sticking with Big Boss here! Sure this is all fanboy logic and point chasing, but that and contest analysis are two sides of the same coin, really!

Leonharts Vote: Big Boss

Leonharts Prediction: Big Boss with 51.04%
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Kleenexs Analysis

Big Boss is lucky hes had such a weak 4-pack, but the MGS drop finally catches up to him here. Red scored a nice upset against Sora last round, and probably doesnt have too much competition left in this division. I dont like it, but I dont really see it happening any other way.

Kleenexs Prediction: Red with 60%

Guests Analysis - ctesjbuvf

Before the contest began, I thought Big Boss would for sure win if Red was here and whether or not Big Boss escaped the division mostly came down to a possible KH3 boost for Sora. Well, Red is here, but I can't say I believe Big Boss should be considered the favorite at this point. Ridley and Crash are without a soubt stronger than they've ever been, but regardless, Big Boss has kept them both really close. No MGS has looked impressive at all and Big Boss is not gonna have his match picture be Naked Snake. I think if he had a chance to get it, he might stand a chance, but that doesn't matter.

I do expect it to be somewhat close, though never really in doubt. With how Kingdom Hearts has looked overall, Sora is probably pretty bad. I have a hard time seeing Red be stronger than Charizard and Mewtwo, but Sora was a better draw than Bowser or Tifa. I have a small hope that Big Boss can win mostly on the account of Sora being really bad, but it'd really surprise me.

Pokemon Trainer Red - 53.46%
Big Boss - 46.54%

Crew Consensus: Red adds Big Boss to his Pokedex.
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Leonhart's Analysis posted...

Would anyone really be surprised if Crash Bandicoot got 47-48% on Sora?

... this is more compelling than it should be.
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Leonhart4 posted...

Lets be honest: Would anyone really be surprised if Crash Bandicoot got 47-48% on Sora?

What an amazing sentence this would have been to read pre-contest.
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to be honest I was fully ready to pick Red until I thought that very thing

I managed to sway myself with that thought!
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Never trust a regular, middle aged dude to win on GameFAQs is my new rule. Red got this.

but he's already won twice...!
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Shhhhhh. Its a loose and fast rule that only applies when I need it to.

who is this heroicmario impostor rooting for Pokemon to win
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Well looks like my fears of another DK upset were unfounded.

But sheesh, how is Vivi this much stronger than Leon and Tidus?
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LinkMarioSamus posted...

Well looks like my fears of another DK upset were unfounded.

But sheesh, how is Vivi this much stronger than Leon and Tidus?

Were you around for 2013? Because there's your answer.

Lopen posted...

Leonhart's Analysis posted...

Would anyone really be surprised if Crash Bandicoot got 47-48% on Sora?

... this is more compelling than it should be.

Also, this.

I went halfway there with my analysis too, but its awfully hard to pick that without a big dose of believe
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2013 is the whole reason I picked Vivi to win the division in the first place!

I'm just amazed Vivi was able to reverse direct results, though granted they were direct results from a four-way contest that happened more than a decade ago. But still!
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LinkMarioSamus posted...

2013 is the whole reason I picked Vivi to win the division in the first place!

I'm just amazed Vivi was able to reverse direct results, though granted they were direct results from a four-way contest that happened more than a decade ago. But still!

4-way results were already unreliable back then, now they are almost completely useless.

I suppose so because that was so long ago, but most of our faith in Vivi came from a belief that FFIX had gotten a general boost, something evidenced in the 2013 character contest and the 2015 games contest, but this particular contest hadn't provided any indications of such, with Vivi getting two fodder RPG opponents and Zidane crapping the bed against Knuckles. Vivi has never looked stronger than Leon or significantly stronger than Tidus at any point in his contest career prior to 2013.

And Leon got 57% on Vivi in Round 1 when the other characters in the poll were Ridley and Spyro who don't have much reason to hurt either of them. I know lol 4-ways, but such a turnaround is amazing. Plus there were literally loads of people picking Leon > Vivi because 2013 VIVI IS A FRAUD AND LEON HAS BEATEN HIM BEFORE!

Leon was already giving me crap for picking DK > Tidus, something I stuck to largely because I was coaxed out of picking DK-related upsets in 2013 and 2015 and didn't want to repeat that mistake.
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Round 3 Alucard vs. Kefka

Moltars Analysis

Alucard
Round 1 - 56.81% vs. Princess Peach
Round 2 - 59.62% vs. Yuna

Kefka
Round 1 - 60.19% vs. L-Block
Round 2 - 59.82% vs. Bomberman

Yuna vs. Bomberman who ya got?

I take Yuna, though after watching this contest, that match is likely to be close. Bomberman has reason to look good while Yuna might be a tad weaker. As for Peach > Yuna, its less that Yuna fell below Peach and more that Peach is stronger now, especially with Nintendo/Smash/Iconic factor all going for her.

What all that means is that Alucard is looking very strong this year.

Kefka dropping the ball in Round 2 turned me away from taking him in this match. The L-Block number also looks less impressive in hindsight, whereas all Alucard has done so far this contest is impress.

Still Kefka is weird though so it wouldnt be completely out of left field for him to pull a win out of nowhere.

Moltars Bracket: Kefka

Moltars Prediction: Alucard 54%

transiences Analysis

I can't say enough positive about Alucard. That Peach win was pretty great, and that Yuna win, wow. Again, I'm not big on FF10 characters so this could just be fluky, but putting 56 and 59% on Nintendo and Square means you're legit.

Kefka's seems legit too but it's a little murkier. L-Block and Bomberman aren't the best measures, but he's passed those pretty well. 60% on Bomberman is worse than 59% on Yuna, I *think*, but in this icon-boosted environment, maybe Bomberman's decent? I dunno. I don't trust Kefka, because I never trust Kefka, but that trust goes both ways. Maybe he's really good and maybe he flops here. Or maybe, like the numbers suggest, he's just not on Alucard's level.

That Terra match is the only thing holding me back from going all in on Alucard here. If Alucard does what I think he can, the super-unpredictable division 3 could be his for the taking.

transience's prediction: Alucard with 54.44%

Leonharts Analysis

Alucard looked great against Yuna while Kefka was a little underwhelming against Bomberman, especially after his hot start. The idea of Bomberman being a near equal to Yuna might seem strange at first glance, but weve seen a lot of these iconic mascot characters look pretty good this year (perhaps as a result of the vaunted Pac-Man Apathy Factor), so I dont actually think its that far out there.

Either way, I expect this match to be close. I cant imagine Kefka or Alucard being weaker than any of the opponents theyve beaten so far. If one of them does win big, then I think that would make them a clear favorite next round.

Leonharts Vote: Kefka

Leonharts Prediction: Kefka with 52.55%

Kleenexs Analysis

Alucard and Kefka have both impressed me with their first two rounds. I didnt expect either of them to be as good as they appear, especially because they have both seemed to drop off quite a bit from their peaks 10+ years ago. I could potentially see this going either way, but I like Alucards round 2 result a bit better than Kefkas so Ill go with him today.

Kleenexs Prediction: Alucard with 54%

Guests Analysis - SuperNiceDog

Alucard has been doing so well this contest, its hard for me to against him. I would take Yuna(who Alucard beat) over Kefka, so for me, I think Alucard is going to take this one down.

He also looks better in his match pic.

The Plan is intact.

Alucard wins with 55% of the vote

Odds of Alucard winning: 71%
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I was hoping everyone would pick Alucard because Kefka winning by crew curse would be like... so Kefka.

crew curse doesnt exist this year!
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It does actually. But not for this match.
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