Board 8 > Character Battle X Contest Analysis Crew - Part 5

(+) Yeah! (+)

Richter has all the good dialogue anyway so he's the only one that would get hurt by that

No wonder he couldn't beat Captain Falcon
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Round 2 Master Chief vs. Miles Tails Prower

Moltars Analysis

Master Chief
Round 1 69.00% vs. Goro Majima

Tails
Round 1 - 56.73% vs. Nathan Drake

So Tails made Drake look like a chump, and pre-contest I figured that Drake would make Chief look bad. Hmm

Tails should be the favorite here, not necessarily because of his strength, but because now that Master Chief has some actual competition, I dont think hes going to hold up as well on our site.

Moltars Bracket: Drake

Moltars Prediction: Tails 58%

transiences Analysis

Nobody's picking Chief, right? It's just impossible to have any kind of confidence in that dude. If Drake was here we'd probably pick Drake.

Chief had a surprisingly good round 1. I'm always waiting for this weird day when Chief becomes some kind of super nostalgic character due to his age and the fondness for the days when Halo was the biggest show in town. It hasn't been that since 2007, though, and Chief just gets worse and worse. There aren't many notable characters that I would pick Chief over. He's like the anti-Pac-Man. If he finds a dude that's well-known, he finds a way to limbo under them. The Master Chief exam should be a rite of passage for middling contest characters. Lucina, KOS-MOS, 2B, Spyro -- if you want to see if they're at least okay, put em against the Chief.

Oh, right. Tails. Tails is in this match.

transience's prediction: Tails with 59.44%

Leonharts Analysis

Its weird to think that Tails could win two matches this year when hed only won one match before this in his long contest career. Weve seen western characters collapse left and right this year, so getting to face two of them back to back is a lucky break. Master Chief put a good beatdown on a weak Yakuza guy in round 1, so hes not totally worthless like I thought he might be this year. As such, I wont completely discount Chiefs chances of winning, but at the same time, I wont be shocked at all if Tails beats him worse than he beat Drake.

Leonharts Vote: Miles Tails Prower

Leonharts Prediction: Miles Tails Prower with 56.56%

Kleenexs Analysis

I really want to take Chief here. Really bad. But I dont think he can pull this one off. Sonic characters have all looked really good this year, and while Chief did look okay, it wasnt a monster performance against one of the weakest characters in the bracket. Im not convinced this is 100% in Tailss favor, I think Chief has a non-zero chance, but all the data points weve seen so far point to Tails.

Kleenexs Prediction: Tails with 55%
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Lopen's Analysis:

Oh boy. I thought I was going to be boring with Master Chief this year. After all, losing to Ryu Hayabusa in 2010 followed by losing to Yuna in 2013 in a format that should favor him didn't inspire me with confidence he could do anything crazy like challenge Luigi. But then, well, Tails put up a good number on Drake and suddenly everyone who picked Drake is like "damage control time" and suddenly Master Chief is a huge underdog even when the bar to clear is Tails so I guess it's an upset special now? Let's talk about a few things.

Chief is looking good coming off round 1. Best he's looked since 2008 I'd argue. Putting up 70%, even on a weak opponent, is good for him-- it implies he's not being as heavily anti-voted as he was when he was at his weakest times. Goro Majima probably isn't the worst level of fodder in the contest. Kiryu did okay on Bomberman who in turn did okay on Kefka. To me I think we're looking at 2004 Chief levels here at base, since he mashed the foddery (in 2004 anyway) Crash Bandicoot for similar numbers back then. 2010 you had him put up only 60% on Spy, which should've been a red flag immediately-- not that losing to Hayabusa is the worst thing ever or anything but I do think 2010 Chief was probably weaker than 2004 (and 2018) Chief. Now 2004 wasn't exactly a glorious year for him but he did come awfully close to beating Frog who was decent then. Chief is also old enough that he likely avoids the kind of falling off a cliff syndrome that many other more recent characters have had-- I'm not saying he's going to get a nostalgia boost but being old enough to get anything out of nostalgia whatsoever should be enough to stave off the fact that Halo hasn't been relevant in many years now.

Speaking about age, on the flip side we have Tails's round 1 opponent, Nathan Drake. Nathan Drake comes from a breed that has, frankly, looked like crap across the board this contest. "Normal human" in design? Check. From a series that became prominent in the last 10 years? Check. Keep in mind that Nathan Drake once was doubled by CATS. Obviously I'm not saying he is going to fall to those levels-- that was before even Uncharted 2, but just pointing out that he has a pretty good distance he can fall. Also note that Master Chief hasn't ever really looked to be substantially weaker than Tails in any year, even in his weak years. Chief's fall from grace has been overstated-- he can still murder guys who are at risk of failing the Pac-Man (circa 2005, maybe not the monster Pac-Man of today) test. Sonic team hasn't really looked amazing either. Knuckles looked alright, but not particularly boosted-- beating Zidane convincingly was likely Zidane's fault more than anything seeing many other FF characters in action. Metal Sonic lost to The Boss who was in turn utterly murdered by Zelda. Shadow lost to Ness who was humiliated by 2B. There isn't really a lot of reason to have faith in Tails or his round 1 opponent here.

It's time for one more dose of believe for old time's sake. GAME FUEL, son. Let's do it. Finish the fight.

Lopen's Prediction:
Master Chief with 54.07%

Crew Consensus: TAILS FUEL
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If the thing is damage control then it's better for tails to win because less gurus have him than Chief.

I mean, for those who have Nathan winning R2 like I do.

I had 100% confidence that Lopen would pick the Chief
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the only reason he'd sign up to do this match is so he could pick Chief so yeah
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If I was the guest I would have picked Tails with ~53%.

If we assume that Kiryu 60-40's Majima you're basically saying that Kefka 60-40's Master Chief. By this point Kefka should be substantially stronger than Tails, but not to the point of 60-40'ing him.

Would Chief lose to Bomberman now?
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Master Moltar posted...

Sonic characters have all looked really good this year

Wait what?
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Mac Arrowny posted...

Master Moltar posted...

Sonic characters have all looked really good this year

Wait what?

Shadow and Metal don't count
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fine, not all, but Knux and Tails did, and Shadow maybe did depending how where 2B ends up
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ZeldaTPLink posted...

If the thing is damage control then it's better for tails to win because less gurus have him than Chief.

I mean, for those who have Nathan winning R2 like I do.

Nah people who have Drake winning would rather Tails win because then at least then they were less wrong. Feels better when Tails got a boost out of nowhere than to say your pick to win the four pack just sucked.
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Eh I don't care about feeling more or less stupid I just want to win things.

As someone ineligible for prizes all I care about is feeling less stupid

ZeldaTPLink posted...

Eh I don't care about feeling more or less stupid I just want to win things.

Exactly. I already feel stupid about a ton of picks, might as well drag as many people down with me as possible by voting for the less popular one in matches I have no horse in.
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Is Round 3 still 4 matches a day?
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Yes
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grr
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I'm more concerned about if Round 3 will get new match pics
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Round 2 Tifa Lockheart vs. Mewtwo

Moltars Analysis

Tifa
Round 1 - 73.19% vs. Geno

Mewtwo
Round 1 - 62.48% vs. GlaDOS

FRAUD DETECTION WARNING

This is it, this is the big test for Mewtwo. So far in this contest, Pikachu has looked strong in two matches, and Charizard lost without much fanfare to Bowser. It looks like Mewtwo is going to fall closer to Charizard on the spectrum than Pikachu, which is still respectable. Both him and Tifa did as expected in Round 1, but Mewtwo needed to do better than for me to give him a chance since I believe Tifa is a step ahead naturally.

While Square is in a decline, Tifa so far seems to be one of the few characters thats holding up. If Mewtwo can keep it close, then I dont think he earns the status of f-word because Tifa is legit.

Moltars Bracket: Tifa

Moltars Prediction: Tifa 56%

transiences Analysis

Look, I'm ready to go low on everything Final Fantasy. Squall went low. Vincent and Aerith went low. Tidus, Yuna and Auron are all varying levels of low. Lightning got killed, Noctis lost to a hand, the list goes on. Unless you're an FF6 character, I don't have your back, and even that's only relative to historical expectations.

Mewtwo could win this, but I'm just not convinced after Charizard. I guess I should feel encouraged that the 'zard got almost 45% on Bowser, someone considered in the running for #10 on the site.

I'm dating myself here, but this matchup reminds me of the Tifa/Luigi matchup from 2005. Mewtwo will threaten, maybe look better than we expect, but ultimately Tifa's never in any danger. For all the Square failures of the last 15 years, for whatever reason, Tifa's just never been part of it. She's certainly not immune but she deserves the benefit of the doubt.

transience's prediction: Tifa with 55.01%

Leonharts Analysis

This is the biggest match of the contest for my reputation and legacy! Ive gone in hard on the idea that Mewtwo is a fraud from the start. Ive laid out my reasoning many times already, so I wont rehash it now. I stand firm on my belief in Tifas strength, too, and its possible that she could be the strongest non-Noble Nine Square character at this point. As such, I might as well put my money where my mouth is and go high here!

Leonharts Vote: Tifa Lockhart

Leonharts Prediction: Tifa Lockhart with 58.99%

Kleenexs Analysis

Time to find out if Mewtwo really is a fraud. FF7s opening vote is really, really rough this year, so the start of this match isnt going to look pretty. Tifa managed to recover pretty well by the end of the match last round, as is the case with most of the other FF7 characters this year. Mewtwo looked...fine(?) last round? I think? I dont know where to place GLaDOS at this point, but honestly I dont think shes that good. Im not as high on Mewtwos performance as some, and Charizard definitely didnt look great. This is going to start out with Mewtwo winning for sure, but I think Tifa can probably pull it out in the end.

Kleenexs Prediction: Tifa with 52%
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Guests Analysis - DoctorJimmy133

First off, apologies for the long and rambling writeup no one will read. Mewtwo clearing his division was a sexy upset pick I made in order to maximize my chances of finishing on the global leaderboard or winning the Guru, and I felt like brainstorming this.

Let's start by looking back at Mewtwo's performance in 2013 (which, let's face it, is the only evidence suggesting Mewtwo can possibly win.) He looked okay against Phoenix Wright in R2 then looked like an upper-echelon Noble Niner in R3 and R4, murdering Sephiroth and Sonic in the process. In the fourth-place bonus match he seemed to deboost, looking weaker than Mega Man and stronger than Pikachu, though the true margins were of course obscured by LFF. There are some theories about what the hell happened in 2013 to turn Mewtwo from the mid midcarder he was into one of the strongest characters in the bracket. It was the year of PokFEAR, but this was ridiculous.

One theory is that he picked up a Charizard- or SMRPG-style bandwagon. This makes little sense because he smashed Sonic and Bowser before he even did anything else huge. I don't think beating Vincent could have triggered it, since casuals have tended to underestimate him.

Another idea suggests that /r/leagueoflegends liked Pokmon more than it liked Sonic, Mario or Final Fantasy VII, thus leading to backfire/spillover votes favoring Mewtwo. However, we had borderline perfectly controlled circumstances to test that theory. When Bacon opened the floodgates all over the poor Genetic Pokmon in the semifinals, he didn't boost relative to Sephiroth he actually lost percentage in comparison, at about the same rate he was losing it before the rally was reposted. So that doesn't explain the boost.

The third idea for why Mewtwo won is that the site as a whole decided to vote for Mewtwo as some sort of "chosen one" as having the best chance take down Draven. This theory is stupid because there's no vehicle with which someone could convey this message to GameFAQs as a whole, and no reason to assume the everyday voter will make this specific decision en masse to the point where a midcarder cleans up Sonic.

So what did cause Mewtwo's explosion?
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I dunno.

That Mewtwo > Sonic > Bowser result makes no sense to me and never will. What we saw there was not the real Mewtwo no way he puts 64% on Bowser today. However, I think the lack of a clear explanation suggests that Mewtwo has the real strength to at least hang with Sonic in the first place.

But what evidence is there that Mewtwo was actually that strong? The 2013 fourth-place match is a big deal that I never see anyone talk about. Mewtwo easily beat Pikachu for second place in the bonus match behind Mega Man. Let me say that again: Straight up. Beat. Pikachu. In a year where Pikachu kicked ass. I really can't get past this facing Pikachu in an SFF bonus match should remove any of the jank factors that caused him to Mega Evolve on Sonic, Bowser and Sephy. No "reddit loves Pokmon" or "anti-Draven bandwagon" shenanigans here. It could be massive rSFF, but there's no compelling evidence that rSFF even exists. This match is what I think validates 2013 Mewtwo not some implausible results where he murders Noble Niners.

Perhaps the best piece of evidence to use in predicting this match is GlaDOS, Mewtwo's only opponent in the last five years. Mewtwo put 62.48% on her. If we assume GlaDOS hasn't deboosted, then by the 2013 x-stats that's almost a Snake-level performance and we're done here. But GlaDOS has reason to suck she's only appeared in Lego Dimensions and Bridge Constructor Portal since 2013, and western characters such as fellow Valve representative Dr. Gordon Freeman tend to drop off heavily without the support of new games. She is likely to drop less than Gordon, because she is female, does not look generic, and has an unforgettable personality. She's probably okay, but this Mewtwo is not going to be nowhere near Snake level based on this.

From Tifa's side of the argument, she did as expected against Geno. Final Fantasy VII so far shows minimal signs of being any weaker than it was in 2013. Aerith and Sephy didn't really embarrass themselves. Even Vincent stood up to Auron better than we would have thought looking at R1 against Magus. Another point for Tifa is that she has large breasts. Yeah I hate putting it like that, but potential TJF benefactors like 2B, Lara Croft and Velvet Crowe have performed to expectations or better. Tifa looks like the same old Tifa and is probably in line with her previous appearances or a bit weaker.

Although Charizard put up a disappointing performance against Bowser, Charizard is probably no worse than in 2013 since he kinda bombed then, too: his match against Zelda was aided by a Toon Zelda picture, and he famously failed to beat Mega Man despite the latter having the second-worst possible leech (after Mega Man X) in the match. Red and Pikachu have looked very good as well. I think Pokmon as a franchise is doing pretty well in 2018.

Despite all I've written, I'm still torn here. I really think it's gonna be close. I expect Mewtwo to be an upper midcarder and stronger than Charizard, and I expect Tifa to be about the same. I no longer think Mewtwo can beat X, but he can beat Tifa. I guess close matches are more likely to go the way of Pokmon rather than Final Fantasy VII, so let's call it a Mewtwo win. He's back in Smash after all. Hooray!

MEWTWO is NOT A FRAUD

Mewtwo wins with 50.15%

Crew Consensus:Tifa bounces on to R3.
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Mewtwo was rallied explicitly to counter Draven IIRC.
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Everything is a fraud! But man not even if Mewtwo loses badly I will say anything bad! He is so cool!
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Even if Mewtwo is a fraud, he could still win if Tifa is a bigger fraud.
Which is quite possible considering how Final Fantasy has been doing.

I'm looking forward to the Stats topic freaking out over Mewtwo crushing Tifa early on. Cue twenty "MEWTWO IS NOT A FRAUD" posts that will look really silly in about an hour (or maybe they won't!).
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Janus5k posted...

Mewtwo was rallied explicitly to counter Draven IIRC.

Rallied where though? For how many votes? And how would you get the masses to heavily agree that Mewtwo would be a better Draven counter than Sonic, Bowser or Sephiroth?

ZenOfThunder posted...

Aww :(
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MasterMoltar posted...

MEWTWO is NOT A FRAUD

http://alexanderlozada.com/iasip/?Ik1ld3R3byBpcyBhIEZyYXVkIg
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I don't know if Mewtwo was rallied. I am pretty sure that Mewtwo benefited heavily from Draven spillover, though.
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He has to have been rallied. No way he did that good all his own.
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So someone mentioned there seems to be a tendency for female characters to overperform, at least in Round 1. And then they attributed it to the 2016 Presidential Election, which I think is REALLY stretching it. A more sensible explanation would probably just be voters gravitating towards characters who look attractive, and since much of the site's audience is male...it may also be pronounced due to the explosion of female characters in video games this decade.

Even assuaging concerns from the press over gaming culture being sexist sounds likelier than OH NO HILLARY LOST.
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What American Elections have to do with a popularity video game character contest on the Internet???
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I know I ended up switching my vote to Claire today after seeing Rodney Davis keeping his seat in my district. These things have consequences.
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LinkMarioSamus posted...

So someone mentioned there seems to be a tendency for female characters to overperform, at least in Round 1. And then they attributed it to the 2016 Presidential Election, which I think is REALLY stretching it. A more sensible explanation would probably just be voters gravitating towards characters who look attractive, and since much of the site's audience is male...it may also be pronounced due to the explosion of female characters in video games this decade.

Even assuaging concerns from the press over gaming culture being sexist sounds likelier than OH NO HILLARY LOST.

don't read into supernicedog much he's insane

Safer_777 posted...

What American Elections have to do with a popularity video game character contest on the Internet???

That is literally what I asked. It was the guest analysis that picked Lightning over Dante (lol).

I sincerely hope that wasn't serious, but I get the feeling it was.
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Safer_777 posted...

What American Elections have to do with a popularity video game character contest on the Internet???

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STElNER posted...

LinkMarioSamus posted...

So someone mentioned there seems to be a tendency for female characters to overperform, at least in Round 1. And then they attributed it to the 2016 Presidential Election, which I think is REALLY stretching it. A more sensible explanation would probably just be voters gravitating towards characters who look attractive, and since much of the site's audience is male...it may also be pronounced due to the explosion of female characters in video games this decade.

Even assuaging concerns from the press over gaming culture being sexist sounds likelier than OH NO HILLARY LOST.

don't read into supernicedog much he's insane

Sounds like good advice.

I'd ask what's going on with the guests picking all these upsets and failing, but then last time I submitted a guest analysis I decided to be conservative and merely pick DK to overperform rather than outright win. Seriously though, Leon has gotten 62% on Tidus in a direct match-up! Yeah it was a four-way with Vivi in the poll too but still!
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LinkMarioSamus posted...

So someone mentioned there seems to be a tendency for female characters to overperform, at least in Round 1. And then they attributed it to the 2016 Presidential Election, which I think is REALLY stretching it. A more sensible explanation would probably just be voters gravitating towards characters who look attractive, and since much of the site's audience is male...it may also be pronounced due to the explosion of female characters in video games this decade.

Even assuaging concerns from the press over gaming culture being sexist sounds likelier than OH NO HILLARY LOST.

It's called TJF... It's also why you see characters like KOS-MOS do well while someone like Roll does terribly.
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_Dog_ posted...

LinkMarioSamus posted...

So someone mentioned there seems to be a tendency for female characters to overperform, at least in Round 1. And then they attributed it to the 2016 Presidential Election, which I think is REALLY stretching it. A more sensible explanation would probably just be voters gravitating towards characters who look attractive, and since much of the site's audience is male...it may also be pronounced due to the explosion of female characters in video games this decade.

Even assuaging concerns from the press over gaming culture being sexist sounds likelier than OH NO HILLARY LOST.

It's called TJF... It's also why you see characters like KOS-MOS do well while someone like Roll does terribly.

It's a good thing we have no pedo factor.
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ZenOfThunder posted...

dang if i knew this was coming it would've been "Crew Consensus: Tifa beats a fraud"
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SMOcsb-yxGU" data-time="

.
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now in gif form for optimal shitposting!!
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Round 2 Revolver Ocelot vs. Mega Man X

Moltars Analysis

Ocelot
Round 1 - 50.49% vs. King Dedede

Mewtwo
Round 1 - 80.65% vs. Isabelle

I hate to say it, but MGS sucks this year. After watching The Boss get wrecked against Zelda, the sky is the limit here against the dude that struggled with Dedede.

Moltars Bracket: MMX

Moltars Prediction: MMX 70%

transiences Analysis

Here's a theory: Mega Man X is helped tremendously by the OG being in the big bracket. It's always weird when you get a couple of matches within a week that feature Mega Man and X. By removing him until a later date, X has a chance to shine.

It's hard to picture him underperforming on Ocelot, a dude who barely beat a character that I'm not totally sure existed before he showed up in a trailer six months ago. Big Boss underwhelmed twice now and Zelda annihilated The Boss. We're not to the point where we can discuss the big bracket guys yet, but I'm kinda feeling a return to ~2005 where Solid Snake is back down with the Sonics and the Mega Mans of the world. Ocelot can't hang with X. X, Tifa and Luigi will be a great debate after this round.

transience's prediction: X with 69.76%

Leonharts Analysis

We were all kind of impressed with Dedede seemingly making the leap from bad fodder to low midcarder simply because of Smash. After seeing Quiet and The Boss get drubbed, its looking more likely that Dedede is still just fodder and now Ocelot is, too! These two have one degree of separation between them in 2010 through Red, and it suggests MMX would get about 61-62% on him. With the MGS regression, X will probably blow past that number and maybe get something similar to what Zelda got on The Boss. Ocelot has historically been in a higher percentage of close matches than pretty much anyone (and Im glad he finally won one last round!), but this will not be one of them.

Leonharts Vote: Revolver Ocelot

Leonharts Prediction: Mega Man X with 70.70%

Kleenexs Analysis

MGS has done like crap, and MMX looked real good last round. This one wont be close, and MMX should put up a nice performance.

Kleenexs Prediction: Mega Man X with 69%

Guests Analysis - paulg235

Throwing this quick writeup down so no one can complain I'm price is righting for the accuracy challenge this time.

Pretty straightforward affair here. X was gon give it to whoever he met here, and Ocelot just had the toughest of times last round taking down a penguin.

https://vignette.wikia.nocookie.net/villains/images/8/8d/300px-MMX1_chillpenguin.jpg/revision/latest?cb=20151003173555

Not that penguin.

https://vignette.wikia.nocookie.net/mario/images/c/ce/Sp.png/revision/latest?cb=20120521194245&path-prefix=de

Not that penguin...

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/55ef0e29e4b099e22cdc9eea/t/5846cac7b3db2be79ebdc017/1481034445093/?format=1500w

Show a gif of Buff Dedede.



Yes, him.

Anyway, I'm going to use Zelda 70-30'ing The Boss as a base for X/Ocelot and say...

Winner - Mega Man X (69.17%)
(I have no clue if any of those images will show up when Moltar posts this in the Crew topic. I'm going to predict only 1 of them actually appears)

Crew Consensus: MMX blasts Ocelot away.
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Well that's a 1.7% spread.
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Needed Batman Penguin instead of the Mario penguin.
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ha, I thought Ocelot beat KKR because those dudes are all the same
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Lopen posted...

Needed Batman Penguin instead of the Mario penguin.

I stuck with video game originated characters because otherwise the write-up would probably take forever to do and I wanted to make this quick.

Would've likely forgot about him anyway. I was thinking of adding this penguin in, though.
https://media1.tenor.com/images/e8046f7b86569713d9c48f14f4aa00f5/tenor.gif?itemid=5751250
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Lopen's Unofficial Analysis x4

Luigi vs Frog
Vincent held fairly well against Auron after Magus gave him trouble, so in theory Frog should probably hold alright here.

Too bad, Luigi time.

Luigi with 65.45%

Master Chief v Tails
That was probably the closest thing I'll do to a real analysis this entire contest. I feel so much believe right now.

Master Chief with 54.07%

Mewtwo v Tifa
Yeah throw me on the fraud bandwagon. Charizard held up decently well against Bowser but I think Mewtwo is probably even weaker than Charizard is. Doing reasonably well against GlaDOS was a mirage because GlaDOS should in theory be dropping too. I don't expect a total beatdown, but Tifa should win fairly decisively.

Tifa with 56.08%

Mega Man X v Ocelot
After seeing Quiet and The Boss get utterly murdered, I'm thinking Dedede holding against Ocelot was as much an indictment of Ocelot being weak as anything. With Mega Man X breaking 80% on that dog thing from animal crossing, and The Boss completely folding against Zelda, this is going to be ugly as hell.

Mega Man X with 73.26%
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I went the highest on three out of the four matches today. I'll take it.
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Honestly I'm surprised it wasn't 4/4 seeing as Mega Man X was one of the three

Luigi
Master Chief's Opponent Expected To Win
Tifa vs Fraud

All seemed like shoe ins for you to go big on.
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