Poll of the Day > So if we need about 70% people to become vaccinated to reach herd immunity...

(+) Yeah! (+)

Like 25ish % of trump supporters need to go get vaccinated.

ish

You act like Trump supporters are the only ones wary of the vaccine when our very own PotD is vehemently anti-Trump while the majority are unconvinced about getting vaccinated.

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Zangulus posted...

Where did you get that 70% is herd immunity?

Because that isnt even close to true...

Epidemiologists have been giving out 60-70%. Its different per virus. I have a friend who did his PhD in a lab with this type of stuff also and he said about 70% also.

https://www.jhsph.edu/covid-19/articles/achieving-herd-immunity-with-covid19.html (edited value out of article, actually)

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160762v3 (not peer reviewed, but with how slow peer review is idk if there will be anything for a bit, just wanted something trustworthy enough for PotD)

Veedrock- posted...

You act like Trump supporters are the only ones wary of the vaccine when our very own PotD is vehemently anti-Trump while the majority are unconvinced about getting vaccinated.

Thats true, I know a lot of anti-trump people who will be choosing to not get the vaccine.

Vaccinated or recovered with acquired immunity

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Clench281 posted...

Vaccinated or recovered with acquired immunity

Do people generally stay immune from it? My aunt had it and said the CDC told her she was just going to be immune for a few months.

Actually now that I think about it, wouldnt the vaccine immunity be similar to acquired immunity or is it totally different?

I wonder if we could roughly calculate the number of people who have had asymptomatic COVID by looking at immunity rates. I guess randomish sampling would be better which we are doing, but would be cool to see both ways.

The rna vaccine specifically encodes proteins from the virus which are expected to exist as-is even in new virus variants. Like the receptor binding domain of the spike protein, which needs to exist as a rather specific looking protein in order to actually bind and enter the cell to cause infection.

Natural antibodies from a real infection would not have this bias for targeting relatively constant regions. Someone might develop antibodies that primarily target the virus shell, but that region might be evolutionarily labile because a bunch of different protein sequences could perform the job equally well.

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The worst part is that even with herd immunity you still have transmission, and thus mutation.

The fewer people get vaccinated, the more likely it is that we'll eventually get a mutation that is more virulent or not covered by the initial vaccine (meaning we go through the crap of the last year all over again).
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My understanding is the actual virus only makes you immune for a few months but the vaccine (specifically the 2nd dose) gets your body to keep producing the antibodies for much longer.

Also, 70% for herd immunity assumes no other precautions are taken, right? Assuming we still enforce social distancing and masks for a while, the numbers should go down enough for contact tracing to hopefully let us eliminate it entirely.

Additionally, the vaccine will hopefully mitigate the risk for most high risk people who can either get the vaccine themselves or at least have a caregiver get the vaccine and stay home as much as possible.

I think a reasonable assumption will be that covid will be around for quite a while, but will be pretty rare outside of isolated outbreaks which cause lockdowns in those areas for a few months and even in those cases we should hopefully see the death rate plummet.

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YoukaiSlayer posted...

Also, 70% for herd immunity assumes no other precautions are taken, right? Assuming we still enforce social distancing and masks for a while, the numbers should go down enough for contact tracing to hopefully let us eliminate it entirely.

We can guaran-fuckin-tee that selfish conservative-led states will relax their restrictions early because "muh freedom." And because people travel between states, those lax rules will impact everyone else.

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Yeah thats my biggest concern honestly. People going "theres a vaccine, time open everything back up again". Especially before everyone can get it.

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Veedrock- posted...

You act like Trump supporters are the only ones wary of the vaccine when our very own PotD is vehemently anti-Trump while the majority are unconvinced about getting vaccinated.

It's not unconvinced, it's the fact that the vaccine should be given to people who actually need it, which as someone who doesn't go outside, and doesn't interact with people, isn't me.

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Veedrock- posted...

You act like Trump supporters are the only ones wary of the vaccine when our very own PotD is vehemently anti-Trump while the majority are unconvinced about getting vaccinated.

You think potd is vehemently anti trump?

Of all irl and online social circles I visit, potd is the least informed/most pro-trump of all of them.

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Clench281 posted...

And because people travel between states, those lax rules will impact everyone else.

This is what's baffled me most about America's covid response (and, for that matter, the response of non-Atlantic Canada, since everyone else in this country has botched it by comparison). Restricting inter-state travel (tracking entry, isolation periods) from the outset would have done so much to limit which states were hit hard. It took literally months for some states to hit significant, uncontrollable case numbers, and if they'd acted quickly to keep cases from coming in, they would have had to do far less as far as locking down goes. Instead, borders were left completely open and the virus spread as readily as people did.

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Clench281 posted...

Of all irl and online social circles I visit, potd is the least informed/most pro-trump of all of them.

Then you must spend most of your time on some pretty extremist left-wing sites and with mostly extremely skewed people IRL.

Though with you, that wouldn't be entirely surprising.
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ParanoidObsessive posted...

Then you must spend most of your time on some pretty extremist left-wing sites and with mostly extremely skewed people IRL.

Though with you, that wouldn't be entirely surprising.

I agree that Clench seems to have a pretty good head on his shoulders

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ParanoidObsessive posted...

you must spend most of your time on some pretty extremist left-wing sites and with mostly extremely skewed people IRL

???

there are a shit ton of hardcore trumpers here. what a weird attempt at a put-down.

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Veedrock- posted...

You act like Trump supporters are the only ones wary of the vaccine when our very own PotD is vehemently anti-Trump while the majority are unconvinced about getting vaccinated.

Pretty much. Anti-vax isn't a partisan issue.

That and the basic premise is flawed, because I'm not sure that Trump supporters even make up that many people. Blu has kinda conflated Trump voters with Trump supporters, which isn't really the same thing.

ParanoidObsessive posted...

Then you must spend most of your time on some pretty extremist left-wing sites and with mostly extremely skewed people IRL.

Though with you, that wouldn't be entirely surprising.

I'm pretty sure he's just playing a character anyway.

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ParanoidObsessive posted...

Then you must spend most of your time on some pretty extremist left-wing sites and with mostly extremely skewed people IRL.

Though with you, that wouldn't be entirely surprising.

I don't associate with any online communities other than this one, so no, no "extremist left wing sites." My friends and associates aren't politically active per se, but they do tend to follow NPR or Washington Post (which is the local paper).

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Zeus posted...

I'm pretty sure he's just playing a character anyway.

It's kind of sad that you can only fathom someone being informed about health and science if they're pretending. Maybe you're the one who needs to change who they associate with?

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Pretty much. Anti-vax isn't a partisan issue.

Yea... There's a button of anti-vax liberals who believe crystals or essential oils or vegan diets or whatever will keep them disease free. After all if you hear 'my crystals help me purge my body of toxins, my oils help keep me safe, and my vegan diet keeps me from eating toxins put into our food by the meat industry because humans don't naturally eat meat' the kind of person you think of isn't a Trump supporter.

Not that there aren't plenty of dumbass anti-vaxxers on the right (vaccines cause artistic people and the government insists on them to keep us civilians dumb and stupid!). It's just that it's not a one-sided thing.

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Theres stupid people in all groups

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Clench281 posted...

It's kind of sad that you can only fathom someone being informed about health and science if they're pretending. Maybe you're the one who needs to change who they associate with?

It's the sum of your nonsense and your handling of same, not your opinion on one given subject.

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Zeus posted...

It's the sum of your nonsense and your handling of same, not your opinion on one given subject.

Let's hear any examples of nonsense you have. Go on, let's see it

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Actually if a virus is communicable enough, even 90% immunity would not stop it from spreading among the remaining 10%. Because we know that immunity only lasts so long (especially immunity gained from getting it previously), this means more than likely a significant portion of the population will not be immune at all times.

The less people who have it at once though, the lower chance of mutations which will possibly cause more deadly and easily transimited versions of the virus.

The flu is seasonal, but Covid does not appear to be seasonal, so a vaccine will not be as effected, since you need to be protected 356 days a year, and the vaccine as far as I know, does not last that long.

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I don't care as long as everyone had the ability to get vaccinated. I don't see the point of holding up society for people that refuse to go along with it. If they don't want the vaccine that is on them.

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https://www.wtvy.com/2021/02/16/how-long-is-the-cdc-estimating-covid-19-vaccine-protection-will-last/

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DragonClaw01 posted...

If they don't want the vaccine that is on them.

and everyone else as well, virus doesnt give a fuck

this isnt the flu, if it isnt mandated, it wont work and well be doing on and off lockdowns until the 2030s

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Mead posted...

and everyone else as well, virus doesnt give a fuck

this isnt the flu, if it isnt mandated, it wont work and well be doing on and off lockdowns until the 2030s

Yeah, but you are operating under the assumption that I care about the lives of anti-vaxers. They made thier bed, they have to sleep on it. It is not like the government can force the vaccine on them anyways. Perhaps private businesses can put pressure in terms of needing the vaccine for continued employment, but the idea of sending police to a person's door to give a person a shot in the arm is a bit too totalitarian for my liking.

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DragonClaw01 posted...

Yeah, but you are operating under the assumption that I care about the lives of anti-vaxers. They made thier bed, they have to sleep on it.

As long as they arent vaccinated the virus is gonna keep circulating and mutating.

It is not like the government can force the vaccine on them anyways.

Sure they can. Fuck em.

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