Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 308: The Board Eight Autonomous Topic

(+) Yeah! (+)

red sox 777 posted...

I actually disagree. I think Trump's best chance is probably to go for herd immunity by September. Then he can declare victory over the virus and say that we are going to lead the world economically for years because we can run at 100% while other countries will still need to have social distancing. But for that to happen, a lot more people need to get sick now. People are very quick to forget the past as long as the present is good.

This could also result in him being extremely unpopular for not caring about life. Not sure which way the wind will blow on that, but I can see the scenario where people don't blame him for the deaths and decide that sooner or later, all the countries will suffer the same level of death (plus a lot of pain from economic collapse).

I'm not sure making it so most Americans personally know someone who has died of covid is a winning strategy, but I guess that's one approach!
(Though actually Trump can't just unilaterally decide to do this; most people will continue to distance, and many states aren't going to take their cues from Trump. Masks are the one thing he could substantially affect by himself).

HeroDelTiempo17 posted...

What should he do about the incoming economic meltdown that will occur during the epidemic because we've done the bare minimum to address it?

Good point on this one; if Congress doesn't extend unemployment benefits etc things are going to go even more to hell very quickly (I'm predicting a month of that and then Mitch comes to the table in a last ditch effort to save his majority).

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LordoftheMorons posted...

Nate also said that he thinks the single thing Trump could do to most help his election chances is to tell people to wear masks (which I agree with, not because it would directly make them vote for him, but because it's the way he could singlehandedly most help to combat the coronavirus, which would in turn help his odds).

A non-small size of his base would actually turn on him if he did that.

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LordoftheMorons posted...

Good point on this one; if Congress doesn't extend unemployment benefits etc things are going to go even more to hell very quickly (I'm predicting a month of that and then Mitch comes to the table in a last ditch effort to save his majority).

I don't know about that. May was the greatest increase in jobs in US history. We'll get June numbers soon and we'll see what they say, but it's completely possible we blow last month's all-time record out of the water. Nasdaq is at an all-time high. At the rate we're going S&P and Dow might hit all-time highs by the election too.

We may only need the unemployment extension if things shut down again. And if Trump's plan is no more shutdowns no matter what, we may not need that.

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Dancedreamer posted...

A non-small size of his base would actually turn on him if he did that.

yeah the sort of nightmare we live in now is that some people are so far gone that even trump cant rein them in

they know masks are a conspiracy to ????? and would take anything pro-mask from trump as a sign the deep state got to him or something
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LordoftheMorons posted...

Good point on this one; if Congress doesn't extend unemployment benefits etc things are going to go even more to hell very quickly (I'm predicting a month of that and then Mitch comes to the table in a last ditch effort to save his majority).

Yeah, I don't feel this point is discussed enough. That $600 per week UI is pretty generous and is keeping most unemployed people comfortable. It dries up in a month, and at that point, this country will have millions of middle class people who will all of a sudden have to live and budget like poor people. It's going to be bedlam in August.

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Dancedreamer posted...

A non-small size of his base would actually turn on him if he did that.

yeah I don't think miss "knowing that that mask is KILLING people" would approve of anyone promoting masks

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Dancedreamer posted...

A non-small size of his base would actually turn on him if he did that.

Fuck 'em. If you're trying to get Trump re-elected you need to face some basic truths:

1) Trump's base on its own is not enough for him to win re-election.

2) The longer the epidemic wears on and the worse it gets, the worse his odds become.

3) There are a lot more votes to be won by being seen as actively combating COVID than there are pandering to internet crackpots. This is especially important because if a hardcore Trumper is discouraged, he (and you know it's a he) probably just stays home on election day; but if you take scientifically suggested steps to combat the epidemic and things get better, you might just peel voters off Biden.

This is completely ignoring the moral and ethical arguments behind mandating mask wearing (because you can be absolutely certain Republicans are ignoring said moral and ethical arguments).

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Not_an_Owl posted...

3) There are a lot more votes to be won by being seen as actively combating COVID than there are pandering to internet crackpots. This is especially important because if a hardcore Trumper is discouraged, he (and you know it's a he) probably just stays home on election day; but if you take scientifically suggested steps to combat the epidemic and things get better, you might just peel voters off Biden.

ah, but conservatives earnestly believe it isn't worth the fiscal cost to fight covid effectively

therein lies the dilemma

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WH economic advisers have been out saying they strongly oppose extending unemployment benefits and anticipate it being a big Dem v GOP battle and that if they (GOP) give in they'll be handing the Dems the election.

so uh

bold strategy cotton

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Yeah very easy to make extending employment benefits bipartisan and a wash politically (actually it probably helps Trump on net even if people don't consciously give him credit, since they'll be less dissatisfied overall)

But I guess now is the time to stick with GOP orthodoxy?

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https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1278145024585326593

umm... he's kind of uh...

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LordoftheMorons posted...

Yeah very easy to make extending employment benefits bipartisan and a wash politically (actually it probably helps Trump on net even if people don't consciously give him credit, since they'll be less dissatisfied overall)

But I guess now is the time to stick with GOP orthodoxy?

I dont understand how with the sky falling on everyone that the obvious answer of bribe people for votes isn't being used.

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red13n posted...

I dont understand how with the sky falling on everyone that the obvious answer of bribe people for votes isn't being used.

I thought they were talking about another round of direct stimulus funding, closer to the election, with Trump's signature as large as possible on it.

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red13n posted...

I dont understand how with the sky falling on everyone that the obvious answer of bribe people for votes isn't being used.

I think it's because since Trump's drive to surround himself with yes-men/"central casting"/grifters means there's no real ideological consistency there.

You have the people like Miller who are all in it for the white supremacy but his economic advisers are basically the Reagan-era fiscal people who are all for eating the poor and "trickle down."

It's also why there's constant in-fighting inside the WH, aside from the GoT-esque palace drama they genuinely have hugely different goals/incentives.

think team of rivals but everyone is joffrey, ramsay bolton, the mountain, and the masters over in essos... only somehow even more incompetent.

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McConnell is saying they're going to vote on a new bill in late July. It is Senate tradition to be working late into the night up to the last minute on these things. Prior to the recent aid bills, when's the last time the Senate passed anything before midnight? 2 AM voting is the standard these days.

xp1337 posted...

WH economic advisers have been out saying they strongly oppose extending unemployment benefits and anticipate it being a big Dem v GOP battle and that if they (GOP) give in they'll be handing the Dems the election.

so uh

bold strategy cotton

I don't believe this is true anymore unless u got new information


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Corrik7 posted...

I don't believe this is true anymore unless u got new information

Admittedly I think I'm thinking of something from the weekend and haven't double-checked to see if they've reversed course since.

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xp1337 posted...

Admittedly I think I'm thinking of something from the weekend and haven't double-checked to see if they've reversed course since.

He said the next package would be very generous and targeted to those who have been affected most by it. Some Republicans are saying unemployed from it are the most targeted. Comes just on the heels of the poll coming out about it being the biggest things voters are looking for in the next package. Most think it will be extended but not in it's current form tho. We will see.

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it just sucks that they wasted so much time.

Like, I think everyone could agree $600 flat a week addition is probably more than necessary, but also not necessarily by that much nor was it entirely cost prohibitive for the government in the short term through July. At the time, needing to get a bill out immediately to avoid, well, people going broke, I think most agreed it wasn't a number worth fighting over(Better to be too much than too little).

They should have used the time this bought to figure out a system(perhaps state by state) where this addition is proportional with cost of living and the minimum unemployment benefit for that specific state. Or something similar along those lines. I imagine you could settle on a range of like $300 to $450 and agree it would be enough(While also extending standard state unemployment benefits again).

Unfortunately, I'm assuming several hedged their bets on COVID being over in a month or two and they squandered a whole bunch of time. Now you figure they have 2, 2 and a half weeks since these programs and stimulus take time to actually implement.

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yeah but who does McConnell think is "most affected"

He's still going out and saying that liability protection is "non-negotiable" and waiting until the end of July is fucking ridiculous and a transparent attempt to try and use the clock as pressure to get Dems to cave on it rather than being proactive and working now to try and get something bipartisan done.

The House passed bills months ago and he simply declares them DOA and that the legislation will "begin in his office" instead of negotiating with the House on their bill ahead of time so everyone isn't racing around at the last second and has no time to check what's in the bill.

We've already seen them try to sneak in ridiculous policies in these kind of bills and that's what he's trying to recreate here.

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red13n posted...

it just sucks that they wasted so much time.

Like, I think everyone could agree $600 flat a week addition is probably more than necessary, but also not necessarily by that much nor was it entirely cost prohibitive for the government in the short term through July. At the time, needing to get a bill out immediately to avoid, well, people going broke, I think most agreed it wasn't a number worth fighting over(Better to be too much than too little).

They should have used the time this bought to figure out a system(perhaps state by state) where this addition is proportional with cost of living and the minimum unemployment benefit for that specific state. Or something similar along those lines. I imagine you could settle on a range of like $300 to $450 and agree it would be enough(While also extending standard state unemployment benefits again).

Unfortunately, I'm assuming several hedged their bets on COVID being over in a month or two and they squandered a whole bunch of time. Now you figure they have 2, 2 and a half weeks since these programs and stimulus take time to actually implement.

They've got plenty of time. The current unemployment bill doesn't end until July 31. They already extended the small business loan/grant program by 16 more weeks. It's easy enough to just wave a wand on July 31 and extend it until election day.

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Apparently Tucker Carlson went on an unhinged rant that some conservatives love, basically saying that Republicans need to win or else Democrats will "punish" non-Democrats.

The funny part is that he makes one correct statement (politicians have abandoned the middle class) and uses that to come to the conclusion that the GOP are the ones that need to stay in power.

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TheRock1525 posted...

Apparently Tucker Carlson went on an unhinged rant that some conservatives love, basically saying that Republicans need to win or else Democrats will "punish" non-Democrats.

This is actually consistent with a projection theory I have about... well it started with just trying to "understand" isn't quite the word I'm looking for but... white supremacists/leaners and well... okay I guess Tucker wants to extend it beyond that...

But basically that the fear/anxiety/resistance from that corner about equality on race relations is rooted in a projection that minorities would look to "punish" whites for the oppression they've endured over centuries... because that's what they (the white supremacists) would do. So for them, they see continued oppression/inequality as a defensive measure and why they also fear changing demographics and the idea that whites may become a minority over time in the US if trends continue.

Even if you put aside my philosophizing here this is just pure projection on how the one Republican policy these days is "own the libs" and fearing that Dems will behave just like them if given power, especially after Republicans have spent these years doing just that.

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I had a big rant set up for how laughably bad "Trumpism" was from it's inception and how it was held together with hot glue and toothpicks, but honestly watching it go down in flames is enough.

Literally every major political analyst said that the GOP needed to work on diversity and the answer is always "MORE WHITE PLZ."

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TheRock1525 posted...

I had a big rant set up for how laughably bad "Trumpism" was from it's inception and how it was held together with hot glue and toothpicks, but honestly watching it go down in flames is enough.

Literally every major political analyst said that the GOP needed to work on diversity and the answer is always "MORE WHITE PLZ."

You realize Trump won in 2016 in large part because he did a lot better than Romney with the big minority groups? And by a lot I mean between like 20% and 100% better. Now, Romney set all-time lows for minority voteshare, but the point is, Trump did a lot better.

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https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1278151603242045442

Another QAnon believer wins a Republican primary for the US House. This time defeating the Republican incumbent in CO-03.

CO-03 is R+6 so it's not inconceivable the Democratic opponent could win the general and flip the seat in a landslide election but it'd be an uphill challenge. Even in 2018 no statewide Dem carried the district but the State House vote there was only a <1% win for Republicans.

Crystal Ball has moved it from Likely R to Leans R off the primary result.

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Another Q-Anon-curious nutjob has won a House GOP primary, this time unseating an incumbent:

https://twitter.com/timodc/status/1278146908888788993?s=21

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damn, too slow

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2am ninjas are something

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GuessMyUserName posted...

2am ninjas are something

gotta get up really, really early to pull one over on me

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Also lmao (2019 Onion):

https://twitter.com/larrysabato/status/1278151008330407938?s=21

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so much drama in the LBC

https://twitter.com/ArtValley818/status/1278099890501873665

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Trump is going all in on screaming "fake news" about the Russian bounty story:

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1278284552679624705

(Unless I missed it he has still not made any sort of statement decrying the actual bounties themselves; he's just raging about the fact that they'red being reported on)

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He knows he made up the fake source about Obama's birth certificate, so he assumes everyone else makes their sources up too. Nothing new

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https://i0.wp.com/wp-cpr.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/2020/06/TiptonandBoebert.jpg

Hoo boy she is hot as hell.

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Some good news from Oklahoma:

https://twitter.com/spettypi/status/1278314905901436930

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Oh, that passed? Good news. I was hearing it'd be close and it wasn't a sure thing at all.

Wait so now the official word from the White House is that there were no Russian bounties on American soldiers that we were aware of?

How many times has that story changed?
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I cant wait for this story to pass

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https://twitter.com/realDerekUtley/status/1278325139592142848

It's not about safety.

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Ok, dumb cupcake

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https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1278283487242567681?s=21

This tweet would need so many annotations if it was in a historical textbook
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Trump calls Black Lives Matter a symbol of hate.

i'd say "not even trying to hide it anymore" but really was he ever

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I mean, Black Lives Matter is totally a symbol of hate in a way. But than most people agree that it's fine to hate systemic racism, so yeah.
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https://www.k-state.edu/today/info/announcement/?id=66089

Every university in America hates and despises the first amendment, and would gleefully violate it if they were allowed to. I'm actually surprised in that I figured they would expel him and just eat the inevitable lawsuit. Will be interesting to see if the football team has the stones to stand by their "we won't play unless they expel him" stance...

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How could a university violate the first amendment
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Jakyl25 posted...

How could a university violate the first amendment

By expelling a student based entirely on his constitutionally protected speech. My understanding is that this binds public universities (which K-State is) only, and not private universities (even if they accept federal funds, which is kinda BS but whatever)

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Xeybozn posted...

I mean, Black Lives Matter is totally a symbol of hate in a way. But than most people agree that it's fine to hate systemic racism, so yeah.

Thats not what a symbol of hate is
Well I hate it! A lot! Ok?

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Jakyl25 posted...

How could a university violate the first amendment

As that university says, because they are a public school. That makes them an arm of the government.

SmartMuffin posted...

By expelling a student based entirely on his constitutionally protected speech. My understanding is that this binds public universities (which K-State is) only, and not private universities (even if they accept federal funds, which is kinda BS but whatever)

Ok I see now
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