Poll of the Day > UK expecting as many as 250,000 deaths due to virus.

(+) Yeah! (+)

The UK only realised "in the last few days" that attempts to "mitigate" the impact of the coronavirus pandemic would not work, and that it needed to shift to a strategy to "suppress" the outbreak, according to a report by a team of experts who have been advising the government.
The report, published by the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team on Monday night, found that the strategy previously being pursued by the government dubbed "mitigation" and involving home isolation of suspect cases and their family members but not including restrictions on wider society would "likely result in hundreds of thousands of deaths and health systems (most notably intensive care units) being overwhelmed many times over".

The mitigation strategy "focuses on slowing but not necessarily stopping epidemic spread reducing peak healthcare demand while protecting those most at risk of severe disease from infection", the report said, reflecting the UK strategy that was outlined last week by Boris Johnson and the chief scientific adviser Patrick Vallance.
But the approach was found to be unworkable. "Our most significant conclusion is that mitigation is unlikely to be feasible without emergency surge capacity limits of the UK and US healthcare systems being exceeded many times over," perhaps by as much as eight times, the report said.
In this scenario, the Imperial College team predicted as many as 250,000 deaths in Britain.
"In the UK, this conclusion has only been reached in the last few days," the report explained, due to new data on likely intensive care unit demand based on the experience of Italy and Britain so far.
"We were expecting herd immunity to build. We now realise its not possible to cope with that," professor Azra Ghani, chair of infectious diseases epidemiology at Imperial, told journalists at a briefing on Monday night.

As a result, the report which its authors said had "informed policymaking in the UK and other countries in the last weeks" said: "We therefore conclude that epidemic suppression is the only viable strategy at the current time."
A suppression strategy, along the lines of the approach adopted by the Chinese authorities, "aims to reverse epidemic growth, reducing case numbers to low levels and maintaining that situation indefinitely".
It requires "a combination of social distancing of the entire population, home isolation of cases and household quarantine of their family members", and "may need to be supplemented by school and university closures".
An "intensive intervention package" will have to be "maintained until a vaccine becomes available (potentially 18 months or more)", the report said, painting an extraordinary picture of what life could be like in the UK for the next year and a half.
On Monday afternoon, the prime minister drastically tightened the measures imposed on the British public signalling the UK's move to a suppression strategy.
Everyone in the UK should now stop "non-essential contact" with other people and avoid pubs, clubs, cinemas, and theatres to slow the spread of the coronavirus, Johnson announced.
Families have also been urged to stay at home together for 14 days if any member is showing symptoms of the virus a new, continuous cough or a fever.
Johnson said that anyone in isolation should avoid leaving the house "even to buy food or essentials" and should exercise outside the house only at a safe distance from others.
A government spokesperson said: This is a very fast-moving situation. In order to give the most robust scientific advice SAGE [the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies] draws upon and considers a range of evidence and views to reach its recommendations. Part of this evidence includes the latest modelling data from a number of experts. All SAGE recommendations are in line with the best current evidence. We will be publishing further evidence shortly.

---

Soon we will inherit the earth.
---

Hopefully the US goes all imperialistic and takes over these smaller countries when they all die off due to ignorance :^).

---

Judgmenl posted...

Hopefully the US goes all imperialistic and takes over these smaller countries when they all die off due to ignorance :^).

you should probably shut the fuck up

---

Cool source

---

Yea Im calling bullshit on this. Ive been looking at the numbers and to me it doesnt appear to be that contagious or deadly. China has 1.4 billion people and only 81,000 have been infected and out of that 3,200 have died. Sure those seem like big numbers, but out of 1.4 billion it really isnt. Sure it would suck to be part of that statistic and yes it it important to practice good hygiene and safety but the amount of overkill and fear mongering from this is ridiculous. Live your life and the have the high risk people quarantine themselves and not force everyone too.

I just saw the article on Facebook if I can find it again I'll post the source. Seemed official though.

---

GameLord113 posted...

Yea Im calling bullshit on this. Ive been looking at the numbers and to me it doesnt appear to be that contagious or deadly. China has 1.4 billion people and only 81,000 have been infected and out of that 3,200 have died. Sure those seem like big numbers, but out of 1.4 billion it really isnt. Sure it would suck to be part of that statistic and yes it it important to practice good hygiene and safety but the amount of overkill and fear mongering from this is ridiculous. Live your life and the have the high risk people quarantine themselves and not force everyone too.

It says after 2 years, and that China done a better job containing it
---

I can't finn it facebook is freaking crazy with posts right now, but the article seems legit and it makes sense consdiering the precautions the US has been taking etc, it actually explains alot.

---

Here is A source, not sure if it's the original or not.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/u-k-realized-its-coronavirus-plan-could-kill-over-100-000.html

---

GameLord113 posted...

Yea Im calling bullshit on this. Ive been looking at the numbers and to me it doesnt appear to be that contagious or deadly. China has 1.4 billion people and only 81,000 have been infected and out of that 3,200 have died. Sure those seem like big numbers, but out of 1.4 billion it really isnt. Sure it would suck to be part of that statistic and yes it it important to practice good hygiene and safety but the amount of overkill and fear mongering from this is ridiculous. Live your life and the have the high risk people quarantine themselves and not force everyone too.

China basically enacted Martial fucking law and closed down the country.

---

lmao Facebook is your source?

Not for nothing, people share wacky shit from all sorts of wacky sources on Facebook dude

---

Well, it was an article on facebook, and that is an article from nymag, but it said it was from scientists, and it follows along with what the US ii doing at this point, so it makes sense.

I'll look around for sometting more official


---

https://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-17/experts-warn-of-250-000-covid-19-deaths-without-tougher-controls/

Ahh here we go

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/coronavirus-uk-250k-deaths-covid19-outbreak-a4388956.html

That is more officiaa.

---

There are some estimates that 25 to 50% of the US will become infected. And if it maintains a mortality rate of 3%, that's up to 5 million deaths just from the virus, and that doesn't include all the people who will die from otherwise survivable diseases and accidents who won't be able to get treatment because the healthcare system has collapsed.

---

I thought the CDC said it was 70% or more, and China's figured so far on cases that have resolved are 95% recovered 5% have died.

But the numbers in Italy are worse, they are not sure if that is due to a mutation, or what, but the numbers are running over 8% I believe in Italy.

If 2/3rds oo our 330 mill people (220 mill total) get the virus and anywhere near 10% die from it, that is 22 million deaths we could be looking at.

---

Here's a reputable source:

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51915302

It's just a warning to the potential for the threat imposed if they don't take more stringent precautions. It's not a prediction.

---

The uk has a population of 66 million.

Judgmenl posted...

China basically enacted Martial fucking law and closed down the country.

Pretty much. It's easy to get things done when you don't care about human rights. China wants a brand new quarantine hospital built in a week? It's built in five days or some of the builders' family members start going missing. Don't have a quarantine facility? Just weld people into their apartment buildings. China took longer than they probably should have to respond, but once they did, their response was extremely aggressive and got the job done. You really shouldn't look to China's stats as an example unless you want our own governments to have to resort to similar measures. Just listen to recommendations for slowing the spread and hope we end up more like South Korea or Singapore, who have successfully kept the virus under control by enacting proper social distancing.

---

Ah good old boris and his incompetence.

---

adjl posted...

You really shouldn't look to China's stats as an example unless you want our own governments to have to resort to similar measures.

Ok well lets look at Italy since apparently its so ridiculous over there. Italy has a population of 61 million and has had 28,000 confirmed cases. Once again 28,000 sounds like a lot but when you look at what percent of Italys population that is it comes down to 0.05%. Not 40-70% like some fear mongering places like to say is going to be infected. If this thing was as contagious as the media would like you to believe then you would see numbers in the millions not tens of thousands. Its absolutely ridiculous how worked up people are for this thing. Once again yes, it is good to be smart, cautious, and have good hygiene habits at this time, but it is absolutely not as contagious or devastating as people are making it out to be.

I mean yes, they only have 28k confirmed cases (doesn't mean there isn't more) but 2100 of them have died (about 2800 have recovered).

Meanwhile they have done what we are just starting to, basically locked down everything, which is what is preventing the # of cases from skyrocketing. Even so, yesterday they had an additional 3000 confirmed cases, in one day.

That is while everyone is self isolating etc, it's still spreading fairly fast.

Yes 3000 isn't very many if you have a pop of 61 million, but if that number gets out of control and spreads quickly, it could increase greatly (and would without self isolation/social distancing etc) which is where the predictions of 70% etc came from.

When they were being made, the current extreme measures were not in effect or even planned yet.

---

https://twitter.com/YaiSor/status/1239864382571544576

---

GameLord113 posted...

Ok well lets look at Italy since apparently its so ridiculous over there. Italy has a population of 61 million and has had 28,000 confirmed cases. Once again 28,000 sounds like a lot but when you look at what percent of Italys population that is it comes down to 0.05%. Not 40-70% like some fear mongering places like to say is going to be infected. If this thing was as contagious as the media would like you to believe then you would see numbers in the millions not tens of thousands. Its absolutely ridiculous how worked up people are for this thing. Once again yes, it is good to be smart, cautious, and have good hygiene habits at this time, but it is absolutely not as contagious or devastating as people are making it out to be.

28,000 today, ~200 a few weeks ago. It spread very, very rapidly, to the point where triage in hospitals now means deciding who gets left for dead instead of whose problems are the most life-threatening. They've managed to keep the spread under control now with strong quarantine measures, but they still weren't able to control it before the number of cases overwhelmed their health care infrastructure. That's what the rest of the world is trying to avoid with social distancing and self-isolation and whatnot: slow the spread to avoid overwhelming infrastructure. That means enacting such measures early and aggressively, since waiting too long means they won't be enough.

The 40-70% numbers are indeed probably just a worst case scenario that won't be realized unless everybody ignores all recommendations and keeps going about their everyday lives with no changes. Odds are, no, nobody's actually going to get that bad. That doesn't mean the current measures aren't important, though.

---

I was about to wish I'd just get the coronavirus and die from it already, but it seems like it's pretty painful to die from:

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/the-story-of-a-coronavirus-infection.html

OmegaM posted...

I was about to wish I'd just get the coronavirus and die from it already, but it seems like it's pretty painful to die from:

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/the-story-of-a-coronavirus-infection.html

Basically this, I don't mind dying, ain't much to live for anymore (although I am feeling better today and even worked out!!), but I really don't wanna go out that way.

---

Kyuubi4269 posted...

It says after 2 years, and that China done a better job containing it

China is massively lying about how many are infected or dead.

This is a terrible topic so here is a terrible post.
smh

---

GameLord113 posted...

Yea Im calling bullshit on this. Ive been looking at the numbers and to me it doesnt appear to be that contagious or deadly. China has 1.4 billion people and only 81,000 have been infected and out of that 3,200 have died. Sure those seem like big numbers, but out of 1.4 billion it really isnt. Sure it would suck to be part of that statistic and yes it it important to practice good hygiene and safety but the amount of overkill and fear mongering from this is ridiculous. Live your life and the have the high risk people quarantine themselves and not force everyone too.

GameLord113, the worlds gratest epidimologist

---

OniRonin posted...

GameLord113, the worlds gratest epidimologist

I wonder if he meant epidemiologist...
---

This is such a misleading topic. There's a big difference between what the UK is actually expecting and worst case scenario if absolutely no preventative measures are taken.

---

Lil69Leo posted...

China is massively lying about how many are infected or dead.

This isn't based off China's stats.
---

It's just based off an article I saw and I guess was all over the UK, basically some scientists filed a report saying if they didn't change things they would have that many deaths, pretty much exactly the title I put up there was the title of the article and if you do a search with it, you'll find it.

Wasn't my statement, just the title of the article.

---

wolfy42 posted...

It's just based off an article I saw and I guess was all over the UK, basically some scientists filed a report saying if they didn't change things they would have that many deaths, pretty much exactly the title I put up there was the title of the article and if you do a search with it, you'll find it.

Wasn't my statement, just the title of the article.

It's just sensationalist bullshit, the media is a complete joke whipping stupid people into a frenzy, as a result idiots are panic buying things they don't really need to panic buy then as a result of their own actions of stripping shops bare they turn around and then blame the Government for not being ready for it then use the now empty shelves they themselves emptied as an example.

Sure the virus will kill more people, yes more people will get infected, but it will not be the apocalyptic event certain media outlets are trying to claim it will be.

---

No clue, all I know is they have tested only 1000 people in my area 58 of them tested positive and 1 died so far. That isn't much, but as far as I knew, nobody in my area tested positive or even had it as of yesterday. They like JUST started testing.

So yeah, that is less then 1% of the people around here being tested, but if over 50 people randomly had it, how long will it take to spread?

As far as how dangerous it is, I have multiple health issues, so yeah, it's dangerous for me, and for lots of other people. Is that article badly worded, and not even valid because they are already taking measures to hopefully prevent that? Yep, but I also posted it the other day before alot of those measures were in effect (pretty much any here in the US), so I guess someone decided the article/scientific report etc, should be taken seriously.

You may not agree, and that is fine, but it's information that people might want to know.

---

ITT bad sources of information and conclusions made on speculation

---

Dmess85 posted...

ITT bad sources of information and conclusions made on speculation

youre just describing the internet

---

Mead posted...

you should probably shut the fuck up

No, he shouldnt. I hope for the same thing.

---

King_Dilly posted...

No, he shouldnt. I hope for the same thing.

What the hell is wrong with you?

We live in a modern society, we arent a bunch of barbarians anymore that go around pillaging, and conquering.

---

deoxxys posted...

What the hell is wrong with you?

We live in a modern society, we arent a bunch of barbarians anymore that go around pillaging, and conquering.

Yeah they stopped doing that barbaric stuff only sixty years ago. Come on, guys.

https://learning.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/01/17/jan-17-1893-hawaiian-monarchy-overthrown-by-america-backed-businessmen/

---

Europe is historically bad at this. This is not news.

---

EvilMegas posted...

Europe is historically bad at this. This is not news.

Historically America had no presence in the world, then the native people got almost wiped out by plague. Historically America can't handle disease at all.
---

They didn't almost get wiped out by the plague. They were almost wiped out by Europeans.

---

OmegaM posted...

I was about to wish I'd just get the coronavirus and die from it already, but it seems like it's pretty painful to die from:

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/the-story-of-a-coronavirus-infection.html

Written like an HP Lovecraft novel lmao

---

Most people aren't going to get the virus, and most people that do get it are going to get a very mild case.

China has A BILLION people. B-b-b-b-BILLION. With a B. They reported less than .1% of their population getting it, let along dying from it. Granted, they took very extreme measures, but still, these intensely high projections of death seem unhinged from reality.

---

GEKGanon posted...

Most people aren't going to get the virus, and most people that do get it are going to get a very mild case.

China has A BILLION people. B-b-b-b-BILLION. With a B. They reported less than .1% of their population getting it, let along dying from it. Granted, they took very extreme measures, but still, these intensely high projections of death seem unhinged from reality.

You might think your reasuring people, but your not.

You are 100% correct on the number of people in china who got the virus, it's less then 100k, out of a billion people. That is less than .1% alright.

Except we actually know how easy it is for the virus to spread, and unless we take extreme measure like they did in China (which the are starting to do in some places), it will probably spread and hit most people.

Meanwhile of the number of people who contracted it in China between 4 and 5% died from it.

That number is almost DOUBLE in Italy though, and it's projected that if we don't space out how many people get seriously ill in the US, it could be far worse here.

Most people in the know, realize they are not actually trying to prevent most americans from getting the virus, they are trying to space out how many get it at once, so our medical system can handle the load.

If 40-70% of the US gets it within a month, it's going to be REALLY bad, and make Italy look good.

If they can keep people in isolation, and then just have stages of people who get it, say 10-20% of the population per month, our medical system will handle the load much better and there will be far fewer deaths.

That is what all this is really about, those who think they can just stay in isolation until this is gone, are in for a shock, it's not going to go away....but hopefully if you don't get it for a month or two, you will just be a small part of Americans who get it at that time, and if you do get seriously ill, our medical system will be prepared to handle it.

---

"Only a few thousand people will die, you shouldn't worry"

What a psychopathic mindset.

---

^ All of this, and also, China had to pretty much dismantle their economy for a month to stop the spread. Obviously if they hadn't take such extreme measures it would have been far worse.

---

EvilMegas posted...

"Only a few thousand people will die, you shouldn't worry"

What a psychopathic mindset.

I bet you burst in to tears every time you see a charity plea on TV.
---

EvilMegas posted...

"Only a few thousand people will die, you shouldn't worry"

What a psychopathic mindset.

If that was the case, I could understand the mindset, we have so many more that die from smoking, or car accidents, or tons of other things, that while horrid, and while we should take precautions, it would be considered part of life, sad, but normal.

Without care, we could see millions die though, just in the US.

I forget the exact numbers, but if 70% get it and there is a death rate of just 5%. that is 220 million people and 5% of that is 11million that would die.

Those are pretty much the numbers that china ended up with (actually it's currently showing as 4% but it fluxuates between 4 and 5%).

So yeah, somewhere between that, just say 10 mill, could die if 70% of the US gets it.

By slowing it down, and making sure everyone does get it within a short period of time, you could DRASTICALLY rrduce those numbers, but then again ALL of china only had 80-90K cases.....total,......and STILL had almost a 5% death rate.

So if we really do end up with hundreds of millions of people getting the virus, it could be bad, even with spacing etc.

---