Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1307

(+) Yeah! (+)

KamikazePotato posted...

Real talk; every Tifa rally is failing miserably and has like 0-2 upvotes because B8ers went to downvote them. Luigi is just collapsing.

The thing is Tifa is a popular character regardless.

I don't think the reddit rallies are bringing in a ton of votes or anything, but there are like 4 of them and a couple are near the top of their respective subreddits' front pages. I woudn't be surprised if they had brought in a total of ~100 votes which is significant at the moment.
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Advokaiser posted...

Has anyone seen Leon? I haven't seen a post from him in the last 2 days or so.

He can't see this topic.
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Gonna need some Luigi rallies I guess. Wish he was stronger since hes way better than Mario :(

Division 5/6, Round 4

Zelda vs. Aerith Gainsborough
Registered Vote Result:
Zelda - 5905 (63.00%)
Aerith Gainsborough - 3468 (37.00%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Zelda - 6425 (60.75%)
Aerith Gainsborough - 4152 (39.25%)

Geralt vs. Auron
Registered Vote Result:
Geralt - 4308 (45.97%)
Auron - 5064 (54.03%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Geralt - 5123 (48.44%)
Auron - 5454 (51.56%)

Zelda with a clear 2% advantage with registered users over the anonymous users.

Auron only did about 2.5% better with registered users compared to anonymous users. Prior to this match, Geralt had done better with the anonymous users and this is certainly the case for this match too. There wasn't enough of a split between registered and anonymous users to make me think the rally on the Witcher subreddit produced any noticeable rallied votes. The percentage of registered user votes also wasn't out of line with our usual matches.

Extra info and past results - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1O1QuDMeK4VhHOia7bdBgtVp_F3kRTnGkkjtR0zRyudw/pub
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And Tifa leads.

TJF power
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Luigi just isn't strong enough, I thought he would win comfortably. I doubt Tifa being rallied and if she is likely not significant.
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LordoftheMorons posted...

I don't think the reddit rallies are bringing in a ton of votes or anything, but there are like 4 of them and a couple are near the top of their respective subreddits' front pages. I woudn't be surprised if they had brought in a total of ~100 votes which is significant at the moment.

100 votes is a gross overestimation (at least at this point). It's mostly Luigi falling off. He was grabbing 170 vote updates not too long ago, and now he's struggling to get 110. Nintendo characters collapsing as the Power Hour wanes isn't a new concept...although this contest's trends have been extremely weird.
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Looks barring rallying shenanigans, this looks done.
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Man. Luigi is proper weak.
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So I wasn't even aware of (or I didn't remember seeing) this match before:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2111-chaos-division-round-2-tifa-lockheart-vs-luigi

Why would Luigi have a chance again?
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Advokaiser posted...

So I wasn't even aware of (or I didn't remember seeing) this match before:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2111-chaos-division-round-2-tifa-lockheart-vs-luigi

Why would Luigi have a chance again?

Well that was ages ago, most would agree FFVII has gotten weaker since that time.
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Luigi cut
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Advokaiser posted...

So I wasn't even aware of (or I didn't remember seeing) this match before:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2111-chaos-division-round-2-tifa-lockheart-vs-luigi

Why would Luigi have a chance again?

Nintendo boost/FF7 deboost, though it turns out the deboost was probably more Vincent being a giant goober than FF7 in general.

Luigi is on par with X and Tifa, not really too bad and nobody really thought hed be exceeding that level anyway. Tifas definitely looking good here, and her performance here is also good.
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Really hope Tifa can hang on. FF7s suffered enough...! It could use one day of glory with a Tifa win and respectable Sephiroth performance.

Lopen posted...

Haste_2 posted...

Also note that 2007 Samus did equally as well on Cloud, or slightly worse (depends on how you calculate it) as she did in 2004. For Samus to rise after 2004 and then fall again in 2007 would be strange...

We have no accurate measurement of Cloud v Samus in 2007 because Mega Man and Link are in all her matches causing LFF or SFF

Haste_2 posted...

Keep in mind the following... I don't see why Frog has to be underrated in 2005. If Samus x-stat is 45.85% in 2005 (her x-stat being 42.36% in 2004), then, then Ganondorf is at 37% on BL. In 2006 he's only 35% on BL. Also, MC was stronger the next year because of a new game, so basing Frog off of 2006 MC doesn't work. It's better to use 2003 Master Chief or 2005 Liquid Snake, and the average of the two suggests that measuring Frog from 2004 Samus is more legit.

Why not just use 2005 Master Chief...? Keep in mind that 2004 Chief probably wasn't much weaker. The Halo 2 hype campaign was crazy, much like the Halo 3 hype campaign that made Chief stronger in 2007 before the game was even released mid contest. 2004 Chief in the middle of Halo 2 hype vs 2005 Chief or 2006 Chief way after Halo 2, probably not a big difference.

I mean I'm not saying Frog probably wasn't a bit weaker in 05, but there's a bit weaker and there's being 60-40'd by yourself a year ago. When it hits that level something is suspicious.

Also on Ganondorf many people have speculated he was on roids in 05 cause of the villain contest. Bowser would also support that. Both of them having a slight regression in 06 would make some sense.

creativename posted...

You seem to be being weirdly stubborn just to deny the obvious conclusion that has been consensus from the end of that contest, which is that Mario boosted significantly and Samus didnt.

I take a consensus reached from people licking their wounds on miscalling a 60-40 and grasping at straws to make themselves feel better about getting a match that wasn't even close overwhelmingly incorrect with a lot of salt.

@Lopen

If you want to psycho-analyze people, well then I as I see it, you partially lucked into a correct prediction and are trying to twist facts and do mental gymnastics to try and act like your pre-analysis must have been correct and not lucky about the Mario boost at all.

Id really prefer not to play the distasteful psycho analysis game and focus on actual analysis, but I dont see it as a winning strategy for you given how you are rejecting the most obvious conclusion of all.

If you predicted Mario with 60% and it wasnt because of a big Mario boost, you didnt have some brilliant foresight. You just got lucky. Same if you predicted Cloud over Seph finals in 2K3 and it wasnt because of KHF, or if you picked Vivi over Mario and it wasnt because of a 4chan rally, etc. Everybody makes predictions that end up right totally by accident sometimes.

Game Fuel Chief was clearly a different beast - 4-ways mustve played a role too as it dilutes his anti-votes. And Ive repeatedly addressed the Frog stuff. If Frog is underrated in 2K5, why did he never bounce back to 2K4 levels?

Using 2005 to predict 2018 matches is not a good idea

Also Luigi has definitely lookes better every year since 05

garetha200 posted...

Using 2005 to predict 2018 matches is not a good idea

Also Luigi has definitely lookes better every year since 05

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2555-tournament-quarterfinal-samus-aran-vs-tifa-lockhart

Hey man, respect our original almost-Noble-Nine-breaker!
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Well, looks like FF7 is as strong as ever.

I think Sephiroth can really make a push for the high 50s if not 60, which make Mario vs Sephiroth now debatable. And Cloud with Smash boost is now looking like the #2 character.
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These Sephiroth performances are making Amaterasu look ridiculously good. Sephiroth's less than 2% higher here than he was at the same point against Ammy.
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KamikazePotato posted...

garetha200 posted...

Using 2005 to predict 2018 matches is not a good idea

Also Luigi has definitely lookes better every year since 05

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2555-tournament-quarterfinal-samus-aran-vs-tifa-lockhart

Hey man, respect our original almost-Noble-Nine-breaker!

Bowser was our original almost-Noble-Nine-breaker against Snake in 2005.
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creativename posted...

Id really prefer not to play the distasteful psycho analysis game and focus on actual analysis, but I dont see it as a winning strategy for you given how you are rejecting the most obvious conclusion of all.

I will continue to psycho analyze you because your response has been to reject evidence that damages any case to repair your brusied ego and just mention things like "obvious" as your counter arguments. How is "a 60-40 becomes winnable for the loser one year ago" by any stretch obvious? It's ridiculous. Like if you want to stick to actual analytics how about you drop the condescending "obvious" for everything. I've given you more arguments than you've given counterarguments. You rely on things like "we reached a consensus" and "this is obvious" and I reject that.

Also funny you mention Chief cause I called him tearing that contest up too for dilution of antivotes combined with Halo 3 hype too. But I guess that was luck too!
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pfft magus was our original almost noble nine breaker because it forced the clarification that it wasn't just the top 9 characters statistically aka "Just because Magus placed 9th doesn't mean he's in and Sonic (I think, don't feel like checking) is out"
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Lopen posted...

creativename posted...

Id really prefer not to play the distasteful psycho analysis game and focus on actual analysis, but I dont see it as a winning strategy for you given how you are rejecting the most obvious conclusion of all.

I will continue to psycho analyze you because your response has been to reject evidence that damages any case to repair your brusied ego and just mention things like "obvious" as your counter arguments. How is "a 60-40 becomes winnable for the loser one year ago" by any stretch obvious? It's ridiculous.

Also funny you mention Chief cause I called him tearing that contest up too for dilution of antivotes combined with Halo 3 hype too. But I guess that was luck too!

LMAO.

Bro I have absolutely no idea how to respond at this point but to laugh st this, you gotta be kidding. I mean this is unreal.

I explained my analyzes pretty throughly. You are doing mental gymnastics, grasping at straws, in denial etc.

I cant tell if you are knowingly acting like I said something different or what. Mario boosting contributing significantly to the blowout was obvious after the contest. Not that hed get 60% before the contest. I suspect you knew exactly what was meant and tried to play it off different, which is just desperation.

I dont like to be mean but I dont know how else to respond to this psycho analysis crap.

You.

Got.

Lucky.

Bruised ego...the irony.

You getting lucky on Mario/Samus, doesnt imply you got lucky on Game Fuel. Totally different things.

If you arent using psychoanalysis to properly argue which video game characters were stronger in a popularity contest thirteen years ago, youve got your priorities all fucked up, I tell you what.
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Ugh, now I feel bad posting like that.

Part of me wants to apologize and part of me doesnt.

That psycho analysis stuff is just irritating though. I already stated how I just wanted to analyze, and I went into every point you brought up.

I have psychoanalyzed that Tifa is currently winning because of her large bappers.
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i have psychoanalyzed that titties
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You can say I got lucky but until you can get a time machine and run Mario/Samus in 2004 and have Samus winning I'm the one who was clearly right in 2005 and you were clearly wrong in 2005 and that's all we can know. You are just speculating about anything in 2004.

It only comes off as mental gymnastics to you because you have a narrow way of thinking about these contests. As far as evidence for evidence goes though I've presented lots of evidence to suggest Samus boosted in 2005 just like Mario did. I would argue it's gymnastics to reject that notion as there's no reason just Mario would boost in 05. Nintendo as a whole, with Mario getting more because he's the primary Nintendo, sure.
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squexa posted...

Well, looks like FF7 is as strong as ever.

I think Sephiroth can really make a push for the high 50s if not 60, which make Mario vs Sephiroth now debatable. And Cloud with Smash boost is now looking like the #2 character.

I cant see Seph beating Mario.

I suppose Cloud over Mario is not impossible, but any Smash boost should result in SFF by that subset of the voter base against Mario.

So what are the thoughts on Mario vs Sephiroth now?

Seph has shown us that he hasn't suffered much if any decline, while Mario is now the one unproven. He got SFFed hard by Link in 2010 and lost to Vivi in 2013 (albeit with Ganondorf in the poll and maybe a rally), so we don't have any clean reads on him against elite competition. There's also the Mario vs Crono vs MMX match but that likely has heavy LFF and might not be trustworthy.
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uh oh, baby weegee time
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Hey look at that I found my password!

Also, one heck of a match here.
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I'll still take Mario over Seph, even if it's because I'm blinded by Mario Odyssey. GotY 2017 and one of the most fun games I've ever played.
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squexa posted...

So what are the thoughts on Mario vs Sephiroth now?

Seph has shown us that he hasn't suffered much if any decline, while Mario is now the one unproven. He got SFFed hard by Link in 2010 and lost to Vivi in 2013 (albeit with Ganondorf in the poll and maybe a rally), so we don't have any clean reads on him against elite competition. There's also the Mario vs Crono vs MMX match but that likely has heavy LFF and might not be trustworthy.

Mario against any non Nintendo character 1v1 will win.

But seph is strong enough to make it close. Maybe 55-45
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And I'm sorry if this comes off as harsh. I'm not trying to be insulting but rather just saying, quite bluntly, I'm not particularly interested in a "consensus" reached by a bunch of people who called a match hideously wrong. Much like I wouldn't want you guys to give me a theory on why Knuckles beat Magus that year, and would instead trust Leonhart who had a plausible theory beforehand.

Bring forth other evidence but this whole "9 dentists out of 10 agree with me" fallback you've been using isn't working for me. It irritates me.
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OK, who's the closet Cher fan here?
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Must resist urge to post rallies on hentai reddits with the title "Go support Tifa on GameFAQs before Luigi takes her for a mustache ride!"
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Lopen posted...

You can say I got lucky but until you can get a time machine and run Mario/Samus in 2004 and have Samus winning I'm the one who was clearly right in 2005 and you were clearly wrong in 2005 and that's all we can know. You are just speculating about anything in 2004.

It only comes off as mental gymnastics to you because you have a narrow way of thinking about these contests. As far as evidence for evidence goes though I've presented lots of evidence to suggest Samus boosted in 2005 just like Mario did. I would argue it's gymnastics to reject that notion as there's no reason just Mario would boost in 05. Nintendo as a whole, with Mario getting more because he's the primary Nintendo, sure.

You are also speculating about 2K4. And I just explained how you can be right via luck. Happens to everybody.

What is my narrow way?

I talked about your evidence already. Very little of it was credible. You were unable to respond to my criticisms. I responded to all your points.

Mario crew is more Nintendo than Samus. The Mario boost surprised us specifically because it was what became a permanent voter base shift, that I dont think we were ever totally sure in why it occurred (though I dont recall, maybe a consensus was reached on the cause?).

Samus was high before then, and high after. She didnt change much. Mario has clearly been stronger in subsequent years than he was in 2K3 or 2K4. Mario clearly boosted, and there is no reason to think Samus did. Shes been pretty consistent in strength from the very first contest outside the female bracket.

At this point I think its clear youre going to be stubborn on this though.

Look man, I really, really dont want hard feelings and I hate drama :(

I apologize for being mean. I really do, I feel bad. I like you!

Hopefully youll accept my apology and we can just enjoy the matches.

I think Luigi can still flip this around- remember X retook the lead too.
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Lopen posted...

And I'm sorry if this comes off as harsh. I'm not trying to be insulting but rather just saying, quite bluntly, I'm not particularly interested in a "consensus" reached by a bunch of people who called a match hideously wrong. Much like I wouldn't want you guys to give me a theory on why Knuckles beat Magus that year, and would instead trust Leonhart who had a plausible theory beforehand.

Bring forth other evidence but this whole "9 dentists out of 10 agree with me" fallback you've been using isn't working for me. It irritates me.

But here theres a blatantly obvious after-the-fact reason that disagrees with your before-the-fact rationale.

If that applied to Knuckles/Magus or whatever, it would be the same.

Hbthebattle posted...

I think Luigi can still flip this around- remember X retook the lead too.

With the help of a rally
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Hbthebattle posted...

I think Luigi can still flip this around- remember X retook the lead too.

Chances are extremely low (barring rallies). Europeans favor Tifa and they've been sleeping the whole time.
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haloiscoolisbak posted...

Hbthebattle posted...

I think Luigi can still flip this around- remember X retook the lead too.

With the help of a rally

Tifa has already received rallyboosts this contest. Well see.
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At this time, MMX had a lead of 260 votes. It's not impossible for Luigi to win but it's not looking great for him at the moment.
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creativename posted...

Shes been pretty consistent in strength from the very first contest outside the female bracket.

This is only correct if you discard a bunch of other things dentists have agreed upon like

1. Mega Man gets SFFed/LFFed by Nintendo. We've seen evidence of this.
2. Sonic boosted between 04 and 06 as well (since he beat Crono and stats had never suggested he could)
3. Samus is completely on an island from Nintendo and wouldn't boost when Nintendo did, despite being SFFed by Mario and Link many a time.

Like the stats dentists agree upon literally have Samus boosting in 06. That's not me dishing out a wild theory that's you dishing one out and one you haven't really argued much aside from saying Samus is projected for a similar percentage on those two in 06 and 04. But you need to assume Sonic didn't boost and Mega didn't get SFFed for that to be relevant
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Neither of you are allowed to continue that debate after this post. I'm putting you both in time out.
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yay go my Tifa

Sephiroth looks like a monster here, holy shit.
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