Board 8 > Character Battle X Contest Analysis Crew - Part 6

(+) Yeah! (+)

I'm glad I did end up taking Tifa-X. It ended up helping me realize that I was backing the wrong character in that match. (By which I mean, would be backing the wrong character in Oracle; my bracket has Mewtwo winning that match.)
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Sorry Moltar my internet is down

I am trying to get my writeups to you
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no worries
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okay finally got it sent
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Round 3 Luigi vs. Miles Tails Prower

Moltars Analysis

Luigi
Round 1 - 77.47% vs. Miles Edgeworth
Round 2 - 61.63% vs. Frog

Tails
Round 1 - 56.73% vs. Nathan Drake
Round 2 - 55.49% vs. Master Chief

battle of the sidekicks

Tails did well to get this far, but this is where his road ends. The only debatable thing here is if Tails is going to end up doing better than Frog on Luigi.

Im going to guess...no. In fact this could end up looking pretty bad for Tails. Usually he ends up avoiding Nintendo or other really recognizable and popular characters, but now hes running head-first into Marios brother. If he under-performs, I wouldnt be surprised.

Moltars Bracket: Luigi

Moltars Prediction: Luigi 67%

transiences Analysis

Everyone's probably going to make a Mario/Sonic AT LAST joke here, right? This is the babiest of baby versions of that hyped matchup. At least Sonic has 'tude going for him; Tails has, um, that little helicopter tail thing that just looks kinda dumb. If Luigi is a clone of Mario, that's still better than a tagalong like Tails.

Anyway, Luigi probably looks as good as ever here - Tails is just a lesser Luigi and I doubt many people actually like Tails. Historically he's gotten fed to bigger icons and well-known characters; this year he got a bunch of PS3 and Xbox bums that don't really jive with this website. Put him against maybe the biggest icon of the baby bracket and he goes down pretty easy. I doubt he looks better than Frog.

transience's prediction: Luigi with 65.79%

Leonharts Analysis

Whew, last day of four writeups per day! Running short on time so Im gonna rush through these today. Thankfully, you dont need to say much about most of them! Tails has done well to get this far for the first time, but hes probably not any stronger than Frog, so Id say 40% is out of reach. People have talked about Luigi applying some SFF here, which I dont totally buy. Im always skeptical to call for SFF when theres not a direct relationship between the two. Luigi shouldnt really need it to score a big number anyway.

Leonharts Vote: Luigi

Leonharts Prediction: Luigi with 66.11%

Kleenexs Analysis

Not a ton to say here. Luigi didnt completely squash Frog last round, but he did fine and Tails was never really going to compete here. Should be a routine win. The other match in this division is far more interesting.

Kleenexs Prediction: Luigi with 65%

Guests Analysis - Xeybozn

We've never seen Mario vs.Sonic in a character battle, but we've seen enough similar stuff in other contests to know it would probably end badly for Sonic. And while Luigi is a step down from Mario, Tails is an even bigger drop in strength compared to Sonic. This should be a huge blowout. The only other thing I have to say is that's it's ridiculous to see Tails make Round 3 when Knuckles still hasn't. How did that even happen?

Prediction: Luigi - 76.13%

Crew Consensus: Tails never fails...expect in this match.
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Im not sure why but I have very little interest in Bayo/Geralt despite it being mega close
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I'm interested because Geralt getting to round 6 was a hard pick for me and it makes me feel good that I called it.

I think its just overshadowed by Squall/Zelda
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Oh that makes me feel good too but the feeling started around round 1 so it feels like a foregone conclusion.

Round 3 Tifa Lockheart vs. Mega Man X

Moltars Analysis

Tifa
Round 1 - 73.19% vs. Geno
Round 2 - 58.10% vs. Mewtwo

Mega Man X
Round 1 - 80.65% vs. Isabelle
Round 2 - 68.41% vs. Revolver Ocelot

hmmm

Both characters have looked good so far. Tifa is one of the few Square characters that still looks dominant in todays less-biased to Square landscape. MMX has always been strong and continues to look strong with two big performances.

So who wins this one? Well, 58% on Mewtwo looked pretty good since thats a little better than what Bowser got on Charizard. 68% on Ocelot is also pretty good, and thats a little worse than what Zelda got on The Boss. Is MMX up there with Zelda? Is MMX stronger than Bowser?

I dunno. In fact, who you side on in this match depends on how strong you think MMX is. Tifa is pretty safely at that near-elite level. MMX might also be there, or he might be higher, or he might be lower. I think hell be at that same level as Tifa, but slightly higher.

Moltars Bracket: MMX

Moltars Prediction: MMX 51%

transiences Analysis

This should be good! There's a lot you can say here, but we probably can't start without mentioning what's currently happening. Aerith is struggling with a third-rate Nintendo guy in Fox, Auron can't get to 60% on Sub-Zero and Squall is getting OBLITERATED. We don't need to recount the whole contest for Square - it's almost like 2002 all over again, back before Kingdom Hearts happened.

Where does that leave Tifa? She's always been the odd one out, the one that thrives even when others do not. She's up against X, which.. it's hard to say what X is. Is X a legit character that can stand on his own against real comp, or is he the cloniest clone that's ever cloned? If people view X properly then I think he's among the strongest characters in the baby bracket, capable of beating Tifa and Luigi. But if he's seen as a lesser Mega Man, something more akin to Zero, then Tifa can wipe him out.

Going off of performances, Tifa looks to be about where Bowser landed - she put up about the same percentage on Mewtwo as Bowser did on Charizard. And man, Charizard sucked. Maybe Tifa's actually better, especially considering where 2B is. Hard to say. Meanwhile, X's performance on Ocelot was pretty strong, maybe a liiiiiiiiiiiiitttle bit better than Tifa, and he's basically a second party Nintendo character. He might not be in Smash himself, but he may as well be Mega Man here, just a lighter version of MM. I'm gonna back the proven icon over Tifa, but I could totally see Tifa blowing him up if people see him as a false prophet for real-ass Mega Man (as he should be). I could also see Tifa threatening Mega Man proper, even in a weird anti-Square environment, because Mega Man feels like he could fall off at any minute. Not betting on that though.

transience's prediction: Mega Man X with 52.05%

Leonharts Analysis

This is a big test for both characters to prove their worth. Ive thought really highly of Tifa for a long time. With Squall flopping against Zelda, I think its possible shes the strongest non-Noble Nine Square character now. Ive always been a little skeptical of people who have called for Mega Man X to essentially be a proxy for Mega Man. His performances havent really backed that up, in my opinion, and people have been able to claim SFF or LFF to excuse his underperformances up until now. Either way, were about to find out whos the real deal or not. This might be the biggest match of this bracket.

Leonharts Vote: Tifa Lockhart

Leonharts Prediction: Tifa Lockhart with 52.87%
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Kleenexs Analysis

I will admit that Sephiroth and Tifa looked a lot better in their matches last round than I expected them too. Maybe FF7 isnt that bad after all, even if they still get weighed down by that abysmal early vote. X has also looked extremely good through the first two rounds, though. Its unfortunate that a lot of MMXs results have been marred by SFF and rallies to we still dont have a great idea of where he falls, but I really dont think hes that far off from OG Mega Man. Hes probably also in the running for #10 on the site if you ask me. Thats something I dont think Tifa is going to be capable of beating, even if she should still end up looking all right by the end of things.

Kleenexs Prediction: Mega Man X with 54%

Guests Analysis - TsunamiXXVIII

Watching my last analysis wind up being totally off base right nowbut this time Ive got it for sure! Tifa lookedmaybe a tad off in Round 1, only getting 73% on Geno, but rebounded nicely with a 58-42 win over Mewtwo. I know everyone pointed at that match as Mewtwo being a fraud, but thats absolutely ridiculous. 2013 Mewtwo was a product of rallies anyway, and 42% on Tifa really doesnt seem that far from what youd expect from Mewtwos early-round results. The biggest problem with judging this, however, is that for someone whose only loss to a non-Noble Niner was in a fourway with one of the two Noble Niners from her game, she hasnt exactly faced that many Noble Niners! This is, in fact, only her sixth contest, and in the previous five, both Sephiroth and Samus have brought her down twice. Still, it seems odd to think that even though shes faced Sephiroth, a Noble Niner from her own game, in a 1v1 before, her worst 1v1 percentage came against the weakest Noble Niner, Sonic.

So why all the talk about Noble Niners? Because theres every indication that Mega Man X essentially is one! We dont have as much data on him and sadly he faced Draven early last contest and therefore has even fewer valid data points than he should, but it definitely seems plausibleespecially since their lone common 1v1 opponent is Link himself! And X actually got the slightly better percentage on Link, in a year when Links most recent game wasnt the hated Wind Waker. Whats that? 2004 Link is thought to be the strongest Link ever? Feh, hardly. 2004 Link simply lacked for significant non-SFF matches. Outside of actually losing to him in 2003, thats Links worst year against Cloud, and you cant chalk that up to FFVII weakening because Sephiroth managed to do better against Link in 2005 than he did in 2002 even as Cloud was doing worse against Link than in 2003 or 2004. Also, I seem to remember that 2010 Link is literally the only character to ever break 70% on a Noble Niner in a 1v1. Lets just plug in the X-Stat calculator
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huh? The damn things broken? Okay, yeah, right, 2010 was the year Tifa somehow managed to completely avoid being SFFd by Sephiroth, so her number is unusually high. Okay, fine, well use 2013 numbers What? Them too? I know X was trapped behind Draven, but isnt that what adjusted X-Stats are for? Should I use Mega Mans number?

not even 51%? Are you kidding me? And even closer in 2010? Tifa you monster! The only year in which I can pull out a number that seems to fit with my preconceptions is 2008, a year that I know full well Tifa should be underrated in because she got stuck with Sephiroth right away. Putting up a good number on a stronger character from your game 1v1 is one matter; not getting SFFed in a multiway is quite another. So thenshould I consider the possibility that my theory that Mega Man X is at least Mega Mans equal (and theres a good reason to think hed be even more powerful, a little thing called SNESFear) doesnt matter? 2006 is another year where Tifa straight-up finished ahead of Mega Man bah, now the page is literally broken. Damnit, Pikachu, whyd you have to only get 54.8% on Yoshi? Although Yoshi also finished ahead of Tifa even in 2010 (thanks Missingno), so maybe asking Pikachu to smash Mega Man so hard that he finishes below Yoshi isnt so unreasonable!

Tifa Lockhart with 51.84%

Crew Consensus: Been a while since a 3-2 split, and this one favors MMX.
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As far as I can tell Tifa is projected to get a similar % on GLaDOS as X got on Ocelot, so I guess you could say it comes down to GLaDOS vs. Ocelot. I was tempted to pick Ocelot, but now I'm not so sure.
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im really excited about tifa/x. I think at this point of the contest Im less interested in 50/50s among relative weaklings and just want to see the real guys go at it. Id much prefer to see Ganondorf/Aerith over Rikku/Peach, for example, despite only one of those results being in doubt.
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transcience posted...

im really excited about tifa/x. I think at this point of the contest Im less interested in 50/50s among relative weaklings and just want to see the real guys go at it. Id much prefer to see Ganondorf/Aerith over Rikku/Peach, for example, despite only one of those results being in doubt.

I don't feel like either of those are in doubt. Aerith is struggling with Fox right now; she wouldn't stand much of a chance against Ganondorf.

...Oh wait, you're actually suggesting that the latter would be debatable. That's so cute. Rikku's biggest problem has always been getting the nominations to make the field in the first place; she's never really had a bad contest once she's there except for maybe 2007 where she let Vaan LFF her enough to allow Knuckles to slip past her despite Yoshi being the first-place character. And that's debatable because as weak as its characters turned out, that was FFXII's first contest and Yoshi is probably low enough on the Nintendo ladder that Knuckles standing up to him isn't so weird. Actually, when push comes to shove, losing to Yoshi in that match might be her second-worst loss! Well, okay, given how Zero failed to show up for the Mega Man/Charizard match after previously getting 44% on Mega 1v1 and LFFing him into a loss to Cube in the fourways, maybe the convincing loss to Zero in 2013 is worse, but I'd still say Rikku had a good contest in 2013, fending off the joke threat in Round 1 despite having her TJF LFFed and still beating out Cube for second place in the loss to Zero.
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you can replace it with any debatable match amongst low-tier guys. Ness/Ken, Rosalina/Shadow, Master Chief/Spyro, any of those
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More like Master Chief/Wonder Woman
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Round 3 Sephiroth vs. Amaterasu

Moltars Analysis

Sephiroth
Round 1 - 70.28% vs. Albert Wesker
Round 2 - 64.93% vs. Captain Falcon

Amaterasu
Round 1 - 88.15% vs. Draven
Round 2 - 54.91% vs. Lara Croft

Sephy did well enough on Falcon to prove that hes not in any danger of losing to any non-elite character. While Ammy may start strong in the match, Sephiroths not in any danger of dropping this one.

Moltars Bracket: Sephiroth

Moltars Prediction: Sephiroth 64%

transiences Analysis

I guess I should give Seph some credit for managing to get 65% on Captain Falcon? I mean, Squall's getting 35% on Zelda here. Maybe that performance isn't so bad, relatively speaking.

Amaterasu has never been *strong*, but she's always managed to upend would-be decent characters and made elites kinda look bad. I actually kinda like Seph here though. I think Falcon could maybe beat Amaterasu, especially after she struggled to put away a boosted Lara.

I'm not sure how much Seph's path matters here because he was kinda gifted division 8, but he does have a potential Luigi/MMX matchup to look forward to.. and if this is 2002 all over again, we could get a repeat of Mega Man/Sephiroth 2002, which is the most underrated jaw-dropping match ever based on where it landed in that contest's bracket, between two of the top 5 matches of all time. Man, the last week of the first character battle was wild. Just like the last week of the first game contest. Okay, time to stop rambling like the old man that I am. Maybe I'll rank contests during the mini-break we're getting next week.

transience's prediction: Sephiroth with 66.04%

Leonharts Analysis

Sephiroth has shown hes still got some top level strength in his first two matches. Amaterasu scored the blowout of the contest against Draven, but she came back down to earth a bit against Lara. She should do respectably as she always does, but theres no chance of an upset here.

Leonharts Vote: Sephiroth

Leonharts Prediction: Sephiroth with 64.47%

Kleenexs Analysis

Before I saw the round 2 results, I was thinking there was a non-zero chance there could be an upset here. But now? Dont think so. Sephiroth impressed against Captain Falcon, and I think Ammy really disappointed against Lara. Sure, something something Iconic Character Boost or whatever you want to call it, but I really think she should have done better there. At least she murdered Draven, but Sephiroth should prove far too strong to really make a dent here.

Kleenexs Prediction: Sephiroth with 60%

Guests Analysis - SuperNiceDog

As great as Amaterasu looked in beating Draven, she just won't hold up against the number 2 character from the FF series. DogFAQs though????

Nah, more like dog food for the ANGEL OF DEATH.



RIP Ammy

Sephiroth wins with 62% of the vote.

Odds of Sephiroth winning: 99%

Crew Consensus: White haired dude > white fur dog
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Nice analysis. And when you really look at Ammy's results...she's arguably never beaten a midcarder. I guess if we're calling Isaac the fodder line, she's got one win over a midcarder (2010 against Shadow the Hedgehog). If anything, she might have swung into "overrated" territory due to the fact that she's never lost in Round 1.

Actually, Moltar's comments about Sephiroth aren't that different from Ammy's status! She's in no danger of losing to anything less than a clear midcarder, but she's not going to beat anyone with real strength.

I probably did understate her wins against midcarders count. Lara is probably stronger than Isaac, but I'd call it debatable. I'm not sure if I like the idea of a single character being called the fodder line. Isaac is definitely a good choice for the low end of the fodder "line"--if you're weaker than Isaac, you're definitely fodder. Ammy might be the upper end--if you're stronger than her, you're definitely a midcarder. The area in between is kind of borderline.
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Isn't she a wolf? Why everyone calls her a dog?
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transcience posted...

dont guest us, Guest

I guest you. I guest you all good

(What does that mean? Somekind of guest curse?)
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that's for your imagination!
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Lopen's Unofficial Analysisx4

Luigi vs Tails
Oh you didn't know? TAILS FUEL.

Tails with like 400% (Luigi with 53.97% as Tails overperforms while acting as a Sonic feud proxy ala Mario vs Shadow)

MMX vs Tifa
I've never bought the hype that MMX is on the level of Mega Man classic. John "don't call me Toad" Price got 35% on MMX back in the day, and he's just never really lived up to the hype of Mega Man. Even this year I'd argue he disappointed a bit on Ocelot if you were expecting Mega Man numbers. Tifa should be able to win this one narrowly as long as she hasn't looked as though she's dropped, and I don't think she has by any stretch.

Tifa with 52.34%

Amaterasu vs Sephiroth
Only real question is the over/under on doge vs Captain Falcon. I'm taking the under.

Sephiroth vs 65.89%

KOS-MOS vs Ryu
I predict whatever I predicted over there. I can't be bothered to analyze this one again I'm a busy man.

Ryu with some amount I guess
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Round 3 Ryu vs. KOS-MOS

Moltars Analysis

Ryu
Round 1 - 68.44% vs. Lloyd Irving
Round 2 - 66.55% vs. Commander Shepard

KOS-MOS
Round 1 - 54.45% vs. Ellie
Round 2 - 57.38% vs. Aqua

Well this round ends with a dud. Going off her previous matches, KOS-MOS isnt much stronger than Ryus previous competition, so I expect another strong win from him here.

Moltars Bracket: Ryu

Moltars Prediction: Ryu 67%

transiences Analysis

Hey, this is like the transience special. I love both of these guys. It's really strange how Street Fighter has gone from a disappointment to a total bust to maybe being stronger than ever? Round 1 just didn't look right before we understood how icons were boosting, but after round 2, maybe Ryu can do something to a weakened Sephiroth.

Thinking back, I think Ryu was one dude who used to consistently get 40 or 45% on every noble nine dude he'd get fed to? He was like the good version of Gordon Freeman.

I'm avoiding talking about this match because it seems like such an obvious doubling. KOS probably loses to Shepard, but not by much, right? Ryu just destroyed Shep so maybe he can push 70% here and we start debating if KOS could beat Amaterasu in an effort to drum up some division 8 hype. (Hint: nope.)

transience's prediction: Ryu with 68.55%

Leonharts Analysis

We saw this match in 2004, and Ryu won easily. The only notable thing about it is that it was the only match that Balrog0, eventual SC2K4 contest winner, got wrong. Ryus been looking solid against fodder line level competition (sorry, Shepard), and KOS-MOS probably falls into that category, too.

Leonharts Vote: Ryu

Leonharts Prediction: Ryu with 65.95%
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Kleenexs Analysis

KOS-MOS has looked pretty much exactly as youd expect so far. Shes still soldily in that lower midcarder role, and has done well putting down the fodder shes face so far. Ryu on the other hand, has looked truly elite this contest. Mass Effect deboost notwithstanding, putting up a doubling on Shepard is nothing to sneeze at. Squall couldnt even do that to Garrus. KOS-MOS should be a little bit stronger than Lloyd, so thats about where I expect Ryu to fall today. I think hell just miss the doubling, but should end up close.

Kleenexs Prediction: Ryu with 65%

Lopen's Analysis:

Ryu is a beautiful man with a classic look. He Street Fighter is Capcom's highest grossing series, generating over 10 billion gross dollars with over 80 titles in the series. Ryu himself has many cool moments, and is highly well known and extremely strong even being added to Smash Brother. Street Fighter has also made movies generating over 200 million. Ryu has existed over 20 years. If you are a shallow person, Ryu's muscular body, large chest, and chiseled jawline should win you over. He also shows a lot of skin if you are into that. But Ryu's classic look while beautiful doesn't detrimenting his whole character.

Kosmos is a blue haried doll designed for nerds to wank off to with no personality. Xeno Saga Episodes are just not relevant and it's just sad that she is in the third round. The series is not relevant since 2001.

Ryu should be more popular even on this weeb site. He is from Japan. His game gets new releases unlike Kosmos and his old series is over 20 years old. He throws fireballs. If this was any other wesbite Ellie would have won in round one because she has won many rewards, and Ellie would beat Ryu with at least 52% of the votes. But its okay even on Gamefaq's Ryu SHOULD have this one.

... see? It's so simple even a stupid raptor could get this one right. Good job TheStupidRaptor. Now if you'll excuse me I need to leave.



Lopen's prediction:
Ryu with 65.54%

Crew Consensus: Ryu advances
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Safer_777 posted...

Isn't she a wolf? Why everyone calls her a dog?

Shut up, Huey
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thanks lopen <3
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True story I'd already sent that write-up before the request

But I did not include the transition into the gif or the gif as I edited that in after you brought it up. I think it improved the package though-- were I thinking quick I would've done it without the request!
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first minute results are mega weird
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Tifa already stalling MMX

What is Ryu doing
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go my kosmos
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yeah I think MMX is toast
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and this ryu result suggests that ellie and aqua beat shepard

I can dig that
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yeah alright mmx is junk
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Tifa already in the lead

She's been in the fraud exposing business this year

Luigi you're next...?
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speaking of junk, what about Luigi/Sephiroth
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transience posted...

speaking of junk, what about Luigi/Sephiroth

You Mean Tifa/Sephiroth?
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nah, this Luigi result is way better than that
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seph is gonna end up fine by the end
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Yeah, Ammy had a crazy board vote against Lara last round and dropped a ton from the freeze.
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Tifa has brackets believe
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I don't take the Luigi result seriously at all. Tails is getting SFFd here for sure
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transience posted...

Tifa has brackets believe

I think X is the Guru favorite actually
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Tifa Lockheart50% 320
Mega Man X50% 320
TOTAL VOTES640

this is great
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transience posted...

Tifa has brackets believe

KamikazePotato posted...

MMX probably takes the lead and holds it for a while, giving everyone false hope

Then Europe comes and Tifa stomps on him for the rest of the 18 hours

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Leonhart4 posted...

transience posted...

Tifa has brackets believe

I think X is the Guru favorite actually

79-52 in favour of X
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Yeah following normal trends it goes

Board vote dominates the first 1-3 minutes or so
More hardcore bracket vote starts seeping in the last couple of minutes

So to me I like Tifa's chances to recover hard on the next update-- combining that with the fact that FFVII's board vote is FFVII's board vote and yeah I really like her chances here.
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yeah Tifa should have this, I wasn't serious

Luigi, though, that result is legit.
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Plus, Mega Man stuff is always super frontloaded because of how bad Europe nerfs them. If X isn't pulling away with the next update, I'll feel really good about Tifa.
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I had no faith in Luigi > X, but can believe in Luigi > Tifa
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