Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1299

(+) Yeah! (+)

Division 5, Round 2

Squall Leonhart vs. Garrus Vakarian
Registered Vote Result:
Squall Leonhart - 6236 (64.57%)
Garrus Vakarian - 3421 (35.43%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Squall Leonhart - 6730 (63.01%)
Garrus Vakarian - 3950 (36.99%)

The Boss vs. Zelda
Registered Vote Result:
The Boss - 2795 (28.94%)
Zelda - 6862 (71.06%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
The Boss - 3198 (29.95%)
Zelda - 7481 (70.05%)

D.Va vs. Fox McCloud
Registered Vote Result:
D.Va - 2842 (29.43%)
Fox McCloud - 6815 (70.57%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
D.Va - 2859 (26.77%)
Fox McCloud - 7821 (73.23%)

Captain Toad vs. Aerith Gainsborough
Registered Vote Result:
Captain Toad - 3933 (40.73%)
Aerith Gainsborough - 5724 (59.27%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Captain Toad - 4134 (38.70%)
Aerith Gainsborough - 6547 (61.30%)

Squall does about 1.5% better with registered users, despite having a bad board vote at the start. In general, western characters haven't done well among registered users this contest.

Zelda only did about 1% better with registered users after doing about 5.5% better in round 1 against Ezio.

Captain Toad also does better with registered users, by about 2% here.

D.Va's shocking 7 point difference from last round wasn't some fluke after all, because D.Va still does close to 3% better with registered users despite going up against Nintendo.

Extra info and past results - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1O1QuDMeK4VhHOia7bdBgtVp_F3kRTnGkkjtR0zRyudw/pub
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tennisboy213 posted...

Western character power hour over

Isn't the power hour where Nintendo dominates? Surely a character likes Geralt benefits from a slow burn vote
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WTF Geralt? How did you take the lead in five minutes from being nearly 50 down?
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Witch Rally is here massive updates for both Geralt and Bayonetta
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Meanwhile, Bayo just destroyed Pac on that update.
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it's alright, simon just got hit in the air because he can't change direction while jumping and whipping

he'll get back in it inb4 this is where the match stops being interesting and geralt just cruises
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Amazing that Pac-Man is keep it this close...
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Im suddenly very afraid of Geralt, votals spiked there

Edit: nvm I read the wrong number, votals just went up a bit
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Another lead change for Simon. 2 vote lead. This could be fun for a bit.

And even the UK cooled off to a mere 60-40 for Jerry.
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don't worry gamefaqs has more users than Poland
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GranzonEx posted...

don't worry gamefaqs has more users than Poland

The Witcher 3 in general is pretty strong throughout Europe, so it's not dependent on just one country here. You can definitely see the Geolocation results on these 2 polls:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6205-
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6141-
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LusterSoldier posted...

GranzonEx posted...

don't worry gamefaqs has more users than Poland

The Witcher 3 in general is pretty strong throughout Europe, so it's not dependent on just one country here. You can definitely see the Geolocation results on these 2 polls:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6205-
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6141-

oh
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Pac destroys back

No fear in this boy
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I'm looking both the maps for Simon vs. Ryu and Simon vs. Gerry, and there's quite a lot of parallels, except that Canada has flipped to the side of the western character in Round 2.
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Wow, Toad and D.Va were both favorites to win their fourpacks. Suck it, casuals!
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Perfect Oracle on Captain Toad, of all the character for me to do that
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go my canada
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DoctorJimmy133 posted...

Wow, Toad and D.Va were both favorites to win their fourpacks. Suck it, casuals!

No, the pick stats for round 2 and beyond aren't accurate here.
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LusterSoldier posted...

DoctorJimmy133 posted...

Wow, Toad and D.Va were both favorites to win their fourpacks. Suck it, casuals!

No, the pick stats for round 2 and beyond aren't accurate here.

Has anyone sent Allen a feedback ticket over that yet?
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LusterSoldier posted...

DoctorJimmy133 posted...

Wow, Toad and D.Va were both favorites to win their fourpacks. Suck it, casuals!

No, the pick stats for round 2 and beyond aren't accurate here.

Wait I thought it was just the loser picks that were misleading, is it also the winner picks? Whats going on?
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DoctorJimmy133 posted...

LusterSoldier posted...

DoctorJimmy133 posted...

Wow, Toad and D.Va were both favorites to win their fourpacks. Suck it, casuals!

No, the pick stats for round 2 and beyond aren't accurate here.

Wait I thought it was just the loser picks that were misleading, is it also the winner picks? Whats going on?

We don't know for sure, but it looks like the winner picks may or may include whoever they beat in the first round to advance as well.
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DoctorJimmy133 posted...

Wait I thought it was just the loser picks that were misleading, is it also the winner picks? Whats going on?

I believe it's both winner and loser picks since the total picks for round 2 matches adds up to 7221 (the total brackets submitted for this contest).

Picks for Dante's round 2 match would include those who picked either Dante or Cuphead to reach round 3, while picks for Lightning include both Lightning and Chloe Price reaching round 3.
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LusterSoldier posted...

DoctorJimmy133 posted...

Wait I thought it was just the loser picks that were misleading, is it also the winner picks? Whats going on?

I believe it's both winner and loser picks since the total picks for round 2 matches adds up to 7221 (the total brackets submitted for this contest).

Picks for Dante's round 2 match would include those who picked either Dante or Cuphead to reach round 3, while picks for Lightning include both Lightning and Chloe Price reaching round 3.

Also, it's also likely related to the whole red/yellow thing, where picks that lost that round are red, while picks that lost in round beforehand are yellow for some reason.
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_SecretSquirrel posted...

Also, it's also likely related to the whole red/yellow thing, where picks that lost that round are red, while picks that lost in round beforehand are yellow for some reason.

My Leon pick is highlighted in yellow despite losing in round 2. It might have something to do with the fact that I didn't pick Donkey Kong to win in round 1, meaning I had a round 2 match-up of Tidus/Leon in my bracket. This fourpack looks like this in my bracket:


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LusterSoldier posted...

DoctorJimmy133 posted...

Wait I thought it was just the loser picks that were misleading, is it also the winner picks? Whats going on?

I believe it's both winner and loser picks since the total picks for round 2 matches adds up to 7221 (the total brackets submitted for this contest).

Picks for Dante's round 2 match would include those who picked either Dante or Cuphead to reach round 3, while picks for Lightning include both Lightning and Chloe Price reaching round 3.

I don't know if we can tell for sure if it's like that, or if it's that Dante's picks are correct and Lightning's picks include all not-Dante picks.
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Now Simon, if you could string together a few of these in row, that would be great.
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_SecretSquirrel posted...

DoctorJimmy133 posted...

LusterSoldier posted...

DoctorJimmy133 posted...

Wow, Toad and D.Va were both favorites to win their fourpacks. Suck it, casuals!

No, the pick stats for round 2 and beyond aren't accurate here.

Wait I thought it was just the loser picks that were misleading, is it also the winner picks? Whats going on?

We don't know for sure, but it looks like the winner picks may or may include whoever they beat in the first round to advance as well.

If that's the case then it's still funny because most people thought the better of C. Toad/Shovel Knight would beat the better of Waluigi/Aerith. Same for D.Va/Aloy vs. Fox/Jill
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This is like the fourth or fifth update where the difference has been 16 votes.
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_SecretSquirrel posted...

LusterSoldier posted...

DoctorJimmy133 posted...

Wow, Toad and D.Va were both favorites to win their fourpacks. Suck it, casuals!

No, the pick stats for round 2 and beyond aren't accurate here.

Has anyone sent Allen a feedback ticket over that yet?

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3 votes, nice.
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DanKirby posted...

LusterSoldier posted...

DoctorJimmy133 posted...

Wait I thought it was just the loser picks that were misleading, is it also the winner picks? Whats going on?

I believe it's both winner and loser picks since the total picks for round 2 matches adds up to 7221 (the total brackets submitted for this contest).

Picks for Dante's round 2 match would include those who picked either Dante or Cuphead to reach round 3, while picks for Lightning include both Lightning and Chloe Price reaching round 3.

I don't know if we can tell for sure if it's like that, or if it's that Dante's picks are correct and Lightning's picks include all not-Dante picks.

I believe this to be the case.
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Anyway, I just sent a feedback ticket about the stats page.
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Oh, is that a tie I see?
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tied
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tied 2
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DanKirby posted...

LusterSoldier posted...

DoctorJimmy133 posted...

Wait I thought it was just the loser picks that were misleading, is it also the winner picks? Whats going on?

I believe it's both winner and loser picks since the total picks for round 2 matches adds up to 7221 (the total brackets submitted for this contest).

Picks for Dante's round 2 match would include those who picked either Dante or Cuphead to reach round 3, while picks for Lightning include both Lightning and Chloe Price reaching round 3.

I don't know if we can tell for sure if it's like that, or if it's that Dante's picks are correct and Lightning's picks include all not-Dante picks.

If that's the case, that is incredibly confusing and, quite frankly, lazy.
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None of these results make any sort of sense after round one.
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The Owner of FF9 posted...

and, quite frankly, lazy.

Management of GameFAQs since Allen took over in a nutshell.
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ExThaNemesis posted...

None of these results make any sort of sense after round one.

None of these are too far off from what my expectations were. Auron is lower than expected but yeah
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You expected Pac Man to be this close to Bayo after she blew Riku to hell?
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ExThaNemesis posted...

You expected Pac Man to be this close to Bayo after she blew Riku to hell?

no
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I thought Pac was going to win actually. That match always felt like Riku flopping more than anything and Pac looked impressive in his own right last round.
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Another tie
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These guys are fighting to the death.
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Simon with the HEART OF FIRE to take back the lead and keep this match in his favor

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VlBVOeFME7U" data-time="
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Well, for anyone curious, based on a scan of the prediction rates, it does appear that all R2 winners' percentages are lower than their R1 percentages, which would seem to indicate that their opponents' number of picks are actually just everyone who did not pick the winner.

*huff huff*

If that is true, so far the character with the lowest R1 prediction rate that has advanced to R3 is Aeris: 3250/7221 (45.01%) in R1 and 2538/7221 (35.15%) in R2.

Top 5 upsets in R2 so far (based on prediction rates):

1. Red: 28.39%
2. Fox: 34.59%
3. Aeris: 35.15%
4. Donkey Kong: 38.06%
5. Phoenix Wright: 40.38%
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lead change!
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c'mon simon, stay in it
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ExThaNemesis posted...

You expected Pac Man to be this close to Bayo after she blew Riku to hell?

Yes, because Pac-Man absolutely anihilated Sans. This is a battle of the shit-tier smash characters, in which noone wins. Also after seeing Sora absolutely bomb to Red in a year where Pokemon has looked questionable, the writing is on the wall for the Kingdom Hearts series
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I guess I just misjudged people's ability to care about Pac-Man.

Good news for me though if Gerry pulls this off, he could very much win next round too.
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