Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1299

(+) Yeah! (+)

*checks results*...

-Darn it, Simon! Come on, you were winning last night! You can do better than this!!
-Bayo barely gaining 1%. Eh... Anti-votes are real this time, I guess.
-Auron choking... It was all nice and good yesterday. =\
-Why didn't I change my lousy prediction for Sub-Zero? Why?

tl;dr: These results suck.
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Also, I'm noticing many people are predicting a Tales's win against Master Chief with a lower percentage than with Nathan. Would you really take Chief > Drake? Because I have a hard time doing so.
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^ Drake VS Master Chief looked like a Ps4 vs Xbox One poll to me so I went with Drake. I can't see Tails losing that match.
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Drake has never looked stronger than Master Chief at any point, really. Drake isn't really the icon of the PS4 so it's not really an X-Box vs PS4 poll at all.

People were expecting Chief to drop off due to Halo not having a release in a while which is why there's popularity in the pick. If you don't think he looked like he dropped off in round 1 then you should still have confidence in Chief here.
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What if I believe Nathan Drake did reasonably well and just assumed Tails got stronger for some reason?
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Then Drake is the only guy from a game released in the last 10 years that didn't fall off a cliff I guess?

I mean, I wouldn't trust it considering how badly Sully (and other modern guys like Ezio) got embarrassed and that none of the other Sonic characters really did all that well (Knuckles did "fine" I suppose) but if you wanna go that way, sure. I'm just saying people who believed in Master Chief to win the pack should still believe in him to win the pack because he looked fine in R1 and there's more evidence on the table to believe that Tails > Drake easily was a Drake drop than a Tails boost.

People who picked Drake to win the pack... shouldn't necessarily assume the match is going to vindicate Drake > Master Chief as a valid pick either. I would be very surprised if Drake outdid Chief. Drake's type of character has shown a lot more sign of dropping off than Master Chief did and the match has never been a great look for Drake to begin with, even for Chief's worst years.

I think if you took Tails to win the pack you should still feel confident in it, though. No real reason to doubt it unless you were banking on Chief dropping when you made the pick.
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Advokaiser posted...

-Darn it, Simon! Come on, you were winning last night! You can do better than this!!

The match was unfortunately never very exciting because if you can't build a significant lead on a Western AAA character early on, you've lost.
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What I don't get is how Bayonetta isn't more powerful. On a site where TJF has had serious influence, I'd figure Bayonetta would be quite strong based on that alone. But she actually seems to extend beyond that; she's so well-designed to the point that I feel like a lot of people tend to have a positive opinion of what she's doing. Where most other 'sexy for the sake of being sexy' characters are simply there to be pleasant to look at, Bayonetta pushes it to a point of power.

At the same time, the biggest fans of her I know are gay men and lesbians...is Bayonetta's 'sex as power' more intimidating than attractive to straight men?
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CasanovaZelos posted...

What I don't get is how Bayonetta isn't more powerful. On a site where TJF has had serious influence, I'd figure Bayonetta would be quite strong based on that alone. But she actually seems to extend beyond that; she's so well-designed to the point that I feel like a lot of people tend to have a positive opinion of what she's doing. Where most other 'sexy for the sake of being sexy' characters are simply there to be pleasant to look at, Bayonetta pushes it to a point of power.

just like with many other new characters, this site simply doesn't play new games. We just had 2B, a character who if she was created 15 years ago would be a high elite, barely beat effing Ness.
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Simon =/
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Advokaiser posted...

Also, I'm noticing many people are predicting a Tales's win against Master Chief with a lower percentage than with Nathan. Would you really take Chief > Drake? Because I have a hard time doing so.

Chief would without a doubt beat Drake. Chief is the older character thats also the face of the Xbox. Drake really has nothing going for him and hes never been that great to begin with.

FSABot posted...

CasanovaZelos posted...

What I don't get is how Bayonetta isn't more powerful. On a site where TJF has had serious influence, I'd figure Bayonetta would be quite strong based on that alone. But she actually seems to extend beyond that; she's so well-designed to the point that I feel like a lot of people tend to have a positive opinion of what she's doing. Where most other 'sexy for the sake of being sexy' characters are simply there to be pleasant to look at, Bayonetta pushes it to a point of power.

just like with many other new characters, this site simply doesn't play new games. We just had 2B, a character who if she was created 15 years ago would be a high elite, barely beat effing Ness.

2B 15 years ago would be a bit higher than KOS-MOS IMO, which is probably not that different from today? A similar same sex appeal but her design stands out more. I wouldn't put her stronger than Tifa for sure, past or present.

CasanovaZelos posted...

At the same time, the biggest fans of her I know are gay men and lesbians...is Bayonetta's 'sex as power' more intimidating than attractive to straight men?

Well if you look at her in a way, Bayonetta does sort of look like trap material.
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@CasanovaZelos I am a guy and I like boobs and watching porn but I believe that Bayonetta is way too sexualized. So I don't like her much.
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TooTooP3 posted...

Advokaiser posted...

Also, I'm noticing many people are predicting a Tales's win against Master Chief with a lower percentage than with Nathan. Would you really take Chief > Drake? Because I have a hard time doing so.

Chief would without a doubt beat Drake. Chief is the older character thats also the face of the Xbox. Drake really has nothing going for him and hes never been that great to begin with.

Also we have had Halo 1 vs. Uncharted 2 in a games contest and...it wasn't pretty for Drake.

I feel like the board also sometimes gets a bit over-zealous in trying to bank on Halo losing stuff, though then again the only time it has really burned the board is in Game of the Decade.

Seriously, why were there so many people picking Super Mario Sunshine to beat Halo 3, to say nothing of those having it go even further? I know lol Halo, but it's not like Mario Galaxy was any more impressive in the prior games contest.
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CasanovaZelos posted...

What I don't get is how Bayonetta isn't more powerful. On a site where TJF has had serious influence, I'd figure Bayonetta would be quite strong based on that alone. But she actually seems to extend beyond that; she's so well-designed to the point that I feel like a lot of people tend to have a positive opinion of what she's doing. Where most other 'sexy for the sake of being sexy' characters are simply there to be pleasant to look at, Bayonetta pushes it to a point of power.

At the same time, the biggest fans of her I know are gay men and lesbians...is Bayonetta's 'sex as power' more intimidating than attractive to straight men?

Nah, there is a strong camp factor in Bayonnetta too
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The most exciting thing about this match is whether Geralt can get a higher % on Simon than Bayonetta on Pac-Man
It's pretty close now
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Random question-
Does anyone archive the stats and discussion topics?
I know they are supposed to be up at thengamer.com but..
http://thengamer.com/stats/1251-1300/
It's only up to 1274. Anything regarding this contest is not there
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I think it's TRE that does it and IIRC they generally don't get uploaded instantly.
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Wait

Wait

People think TJF is a serious thing?
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Do you think it isn't?
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I mean in so far as character design matters.

But I don't think there's like a group of voters that just votes for boobs anymore than sexist vote cancels it out.
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Romania betrayed Simon!!!!!!!
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Boobs are important people! But yeah no way some people vote only based on that. Probably.
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pjbasis posted...

Wait

Wait

People think TJF is a serious thing?

It is
At least when you are required to vote for something
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Consider two characters:

Character A: you don't care about them
Character B: you don't care about them...but they're kinda hot

You are now forced to vote for one. Which do you think the average voter chooses?
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Claire just got her first cut of the match a couple updates ago. Could we see a comeback brewing?
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pjbasis posted...

Wait

Wait

People think TJF is a serious thing?

people vote for all kinds of reasons. One person might vote for a character because they think they look badass. Another votes because of boobs.
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I mean Aya Brea/Victor Sullivan is the best example of this
Let's assume for a moment you don't bracket vote(like 50% of the voters I think), you didn't play Parasite Eve (very likely) and you didn't play Uncharted (likely)
Who are you more likely to vote? in previous contest, I assume people wouldn't vote for either
But in this contest that you must vote for all 4...tell me, who are YOU going to vote for?
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DoctorJimmy133 posted...

Claire just got her first cut of the match a couple updates ago. Could we see a comeback brewing?

There's only 2000 votes left, even if they all go to Claire she still loses by 7000 votes
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KamikazePotato posted...

Consider two characters:

Character A: you don't care about them
Character B: you don't care about them...but they're kinda hot

You are now forced to vote for one. Which do you think the average voter chooses?

If that's the case you'd expect busty characters to be less transitive stat wise than other characters as they would fold all this additional support against known characters. I don't think we have any statistics that show they are particularly less transitive than other characters.
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It doesn't have to make them less transitive. It's just an inherent part of their strength.
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Nanis23 posted...

The most exciting thing about this match is whether Geralt can get a higher % on Simon than Bayonetta on Pac-Man
It's pretty close now

Geralt has now passed Bayonetta with almost 3 hours left to go
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Usually these Factors are trying to describe things that bend the transitivity though.

Otherwise...it's not really worth talking about except to try to explain where a character's strength might come from. But there's no reason to think Tifa is strong because she's a girl anymore than to think Cloud is strong because he's not.
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Oxbridge posted...

DoctorJimmy133 posted...

Claire just got her first cut of the match a couple updates ago. Could we see a comeback brewing?

There's only 2000 votes left, even if they all go to Claire she still loses by 7000 votes

I dunno man I just got a feeling /s
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KamikazePotato posted...

Consider two characters:

Character A: you don't care about them
Character B: you don't care about them...but they're kinda hot

You are now forced to vote for one. Which do you think the average voter chooses?

No different than someone voting for Dante because he looks hot or cool
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KamikazePotato posted...

It doesn't have to make them less transitive. It's just an inherent part of their strength.

Your example explicitly states when its two characters you don't care about. That implies the factor only matters when you are indifferent to all other characters in the poll. That implies less transitivity. I mean, unless you're saying it only matters as much as any other type of character design and at that point whats the point of differentiating between the two. Looking over multiway polls and seeing if female character met expectations or did not in the 3 and 4 way contests would give more insight, as the number of matches where they are only against someone you don't care about would lessen.
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I think I would take Simon > Pac-Man
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Yeah I think there's some misinformation about what transitivity really means.

Especially since the term SFF gets thrown around pretty incorrectly too.
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Geralt is now beating Simon by more than Bayonette is beating Pac Man.
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Match LXXXIX: (1) Luigi vs. (8) Frog

Current Contest Performance

Luigi
Defeated Miles Edgeworth, 77.47% - 22.53%

Frog
Defeated Monokuma, 76.38% - 23.62%

Analysis

Both characters scored a tripling last round, setting up a battle of green characters. For Luigi this will give us more information as to his chances at winning the division. I wasnt overly impressed with his performance against Edgeworth. It was essentially around what you would expect from him, but that may not be enough to defeat Tifa or Mega Man X.

With Vincent performing well today and thus reflecting well on Magus I feel Chrono Trigger is on the upswing. This likely wont change the result of this match, but I imagine Frog could have a respectable performance.

charmander6000s Bracket: Luigi > Frog

charmander6000s Prediction: Luigi wins, 61.34% - 38.66%




Match XC: (5) Master Chief vs. (13) Miles Tails Prower

Current Contest Performance

Master Chief
Defeated Goro Majima, 69.00% - 31.00%

Miles Tails Prower
Defeated Nathan Drake, 56.73% - 43.27%

Analysis

As the contest wore on it became more apparent that Tails was going to win his first-round match. Newer characters have been flopping everywhere while Knuckles and other older characters looked pretty good. Master Chief on the other hand was not very impressive against Goro and while he rarely blows out his competition due to anti-votes this could also be due to his lack of strength.

I still feel Master Chief would be stronger than Nathan Drake. Kiryu, through Bomberman ended up looking relatively respectful against Kefka earlier this round and while Goro is no doubt weaker it could mean they are not horribly weak fodder. Master Chief is also a bit older than Nathan Drake which could prevent him from suffering the same faith, but Halo did take a nasty fall during the 2015 games contest. Tails should be the favourite in this match though I imagine hell struggle more so than people are expecting.

charmander6000s Bracket: Master Chief > Nathan Drake

charmander6000s Prediction: Miles Tails Prower wins, 51.15% - 48.85%
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Match XCI: (3) Tifa Lockheart vs. (11) Mewtwo

Current Contest Performance

Tifa Lockheart
Defeated Geno, 73.19% - 26.81%

Mewtwo
Defeated GlaDOS, 62.48% - 37.52%

Analysis

Final Fantasy VII has looked relatively good this contest which is good news for Tifa. Mewtwo may have looked decent against GlaDOS, but there is reason to expect her to be a lot weaker this contest.

Overall, I doubt this is the same Mewtwo we saw in 2013. Earlier this round we saw Bowser easily defeat Charizard and with Tifa performing well against Geno I see no reason for her to drop. With that said, Mewtwo isnt a weak character. Before 2013, hes had good performances against Bowser and Ganondorf so I expect him to lose respectfully.

charmander6000s Bracket: Tifa Lockheart > Mewtwo

charmander6000s Prediction: Tifa Lockheart wins, 58.58% - 41.42%




Match XCII: (10) Revolver Ocelot vs. (2) Mega Man X

Current Contest Performance

Revolver Ocelot
Defeated King Dedede, 50.49% - 49.51%

Mega Man X
Defeated Isabelle, 80.65% - 19.35%

Analysis

I was quite impressed with Mega Man X last round. Sure, we could blame SFF or the fact that no one on GameFAQs really cares about Isabelle, but I think the performance was good enough for a character looking to win this division.

Ocelot on the other hand needed everything he had just to defeat King Dedede. Yes, Nintendo is having a good year, but there is only so much credit you can give to Super Smash Bros. Ultimate hype. With the way Metal Gear characters have performed, Im not expecting much out of him. In 2010 Mega Man X faced Red whom went even with Ocelot in the previous round. I expect Mega Man X to grab a higher percentage than what he did against Red.

charmander6000s Bracket: Mega Man X > Revolver Ocelot

charmander6000s Prediction: Mega Man X wins, 66.31% - 33.69%
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SMOcsb-yxGU" data-time="
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charmander6000 posted...

charmander6000s Prediction: Tifa Lockheart wins, 58.58% - 41.42%

Damn

I mean there is taking Mewtwo to lose here and there is...taking Mewtwo to fuck up so badly
I don't believe even Leon think he is going to be so bad, and he can't stop saying he is a fraud!
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Ganondorf got around that back in 2010. I also would take Tifa > Bowser and I don't think Mewtwo would be much stronger than Charizard.
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ZenOfThunder posted...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SMOcsb-yxGU" data-time="

As you can clearly see, Mewtwo's boobs are smaller than Tifa's. He has no chance.
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now in gif form for optimal shitposting!
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I can't believe how weak anything Castlevania is here besides Alucard and SotN.

That kind of sucks.
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oh Tifa vs Mewtwo is tonight huh?

Awesome!
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Advokaiser posted...

I can't believe how weak anything Castlevania is here besides Alucard and SotN.

That kind of sucks.

if it wasn't for smash and the anime, there's a good chance there wouldn't be any castlevania in round 2 right now, especially after the Konami backlash

It really does suck.
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https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2515-patriot-division-round-1-solid-snake-vs-soma-cruz
Tell me about it
Best Castlevania games
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