Lurker > Lopen

You've never actually pushed for Han's lynch

You've pushed for him not to be king, yes, but not his lynch

red13n posted...

Hell my reaction to Han's claim was that it was just a spot he felt he could gain free townpoints. Nothing about it screamed town.

Your reaction should to be go with the slam dunk lynch even if you think we're both scum.

You didn't, and that to me says if Han is alive today you're walking it back.

red13n posted...

Did you not attempt similar?

Attempt what? A fakeclaim? Yeah. Different motivations, different things known, different rewards for execution.

In some sense me and Han had similar info. We both knew roleblock of me didn't explain the no-kill-- he just knew it happened because a shot did go off and it hit Kirby. I thought it was unclaimed protection or a scum ability.

I do not think Han makes that claim if IGCD's role was known before he made it-- I think he doesn't makes an assumption that a power claim isn't grossly out of place without someone in his ear saying there's no protection left. That's a big difference between his and mine-- he was trapped in his, I only eventually made mine AFTER IGCD claimed because I knew at that point there was nothing else that could explain it aside from a scum ability that no one but myself was going to believe possibly exists.

Han on the other hand had confidence there wouldn't be more power claims.

Obellisk posted...

Lopen, it's your opinion that Red did one thing day 1 and that's bus Han?

I haven't reread day 1 but red does seem like the type of scum that wouldn't care too much about making his mate look bad. He knows he's going to live a while and people will have these things to reference down the line.

It's a very easy low risk play to just say you don't want your scum bro to be king. You have no guarantee if town gets it they're going to hit scum.

If anything to me it makes him look worse for not going for Han's throat yesterday, to me. Now you've got a pattern of him distrusting Han's play AND he should have concluded that there's no way Han's role is in the setup.

red13n posted...

Also this "all bets are off with red thing" is super dumb. Red is a big fan of making the safeplay when in a position of big advantage. My team up 2-0 with cop and watcher down everyone claims vanilla and laughs at powerless town stuck trying to figure it out.

Yeah like Han would let you call the claim for him. That's probably him overextending because he thinks all the power is claimed already aside from Kirby (which again, was your fault-- I don't think this is a common assumption which is why I'm so sure you were there putting that thought in Han's head) and you just sorta facepalming and being like "why"

And keep in mind scum knew of a roleblocker n2 at minimum since we see from Han's flip he wasn't lying about being blocked. They had figured rb into the protection scheme then. More than enough time for red to have thoroughly theorycrafted it.

htaeD posted...

But then what stopped their kill from their POV?

Kirby being bulletproof, same as our POV. I'm sure they reached the same conclusion of Han's in topic analysis in scumchat because Kirby is not a doc save that makes a lot of sense yesterday.

Don't get me wrong I thought unclaimed protection being in play was a possibility and that's why I didnt gambit until IGCD claimed (was hoping doc saved me or Chang or someone). But had I known scum killed Kirby I wouldn't have thought that was likely and I doubt scum would either especially with red on the team spreading the idea of a small protection setup with Bus + King.

htaeD posted...

I can believe it even less that both he and Lopen would make such dangerous claims when they likely knew there was still some form of protection out there.

HAN DIDN'T KNOW because his scummate red was insisting the protection was dead!

That's the point! Han's claim was literally a scumslip channeled through having red on your team. Most reasonable people would assume more protection I would imagine-- more protection makes hinting power kinda suicidal.

But if you've got red on your team, all bets are off.

Sorry I haven't been more active today. Major drama. Not for this topic.

I mean I also am sure it's red and it's frustrating to see people coming to other conclusions but I really should be digging more for it.

Yes

I think Sbell is the better king because I trust his judgment more.

Don't really like the "red can't be scum" mindset but there is a second scum out there. It's possible I'm wrong but I can't help that Han's bad claim was largely stemmed from Red's read of the game. That he insisted on lynching me yesterday despite a claim existing on the other candidate that should have made 0 sense. He also has avoided justifying that. Town red explains, because it's suspicious. Scum red continues to provide worthless insight like "Sultan is town" and hides behind a persona of indifference because he knows I will never be elected again.

Kirby being super aggressive towards me. Probably because he knows I will call for the safe slamdunk indie lynch should we get another scum. Doubt he actually thinks I'm scum, which functionally makes him anti-town at the moment.

##King Sbell

Ive been informed I may have unwittingly posted some spoilers

Anyway Dr Strange 2 was cool. Good character development for Wanda. Not one I'm probably gonna rewatch much though

Watched Strange 2 today.

Really made me like Wanda a lot more

Illuminati stuff was hype (and surprisingly brutal)

Not sure it's one I'm going to go back and watch much but I really appreciate what it was doing

Kirby321 posted...

Everyone suspected plum. The fact that you pointed out "post 63" was a complete fluke, as your intention wasn't to reference a post that forced plum to commit to his power hinting. I believe it was Death who pointed out the topic 1, post 63 thing.

Post 63 was to force plum to analyze and play the damn game, which was a way bigger scumtell than gladiator

Kirby321 posted...

Your accusations of self-preservation are baseless when you've barely done anything yourself.

I've actively pushed for our two scum flips of the game (and three town flips, being fair) and am going for my third. Who is being baseless here?

I actually came to the exact opposite conclusion, Mzero, that Scare felt he could stick his neck out further to save Han because "if Han flips godfather, lynching cop no longer looks as bad" so his scum equity doesn't go up as much.

The main guy that looks ironclad from that flip right now is Chang as I highly doubt starting with enough points for two godfather + extra kill makes sense.

Kirby321 posted...

Suddenly convinced I'm not the independent?

Independent wants to survive as their primary objective just like scum

Ps Kirby did the same thing going into depth about how Sultan is town. Sultan is obviously town. It doesn't require a two paragraph dissertation.

These are observations of self-preservation not observations to try and solve the game

Who is going to do it? Chang? Save it for when he's king.

Red repeatedly saying sbell is town as though he needs to convince anyone is another scumtell

Fake content

Kirby321 posted...

Shush, scum. You're not leading a mislynch today. We're not gonna forget your bogus Bulletproof claim from D4.

And you are

You are likely indie and I doubt town getting too far ahead is in your best interest

I won't lynch you today but I sure as hell won't trust you

You chose me as king over no lynch, not over Han

You pushed for me more than him despite his claim making zero sense

Very easy for you to "reconsider" once I'm dead

Suspects are meaningless if you don't pursue justice

Leafeon13N posted...

Wasn't backup hans dumb claim?

He never left my scumpile.

Didn't push for his lynch

Didn't call his claim bs

Empty words

I will vote anyone King who has Red in their top set

Screw hammerer who cares

Red is scum because he argued fiercely with me that Roleblocker + King + Bus was enough protection then didn't question Bodyguard or backup claim.

I stand by Red being the best lynch today

Moonroof posted...

BBIG was like 3.20 to 2.10

Try $6 to $2.10 actually

My point is everything is way down though

I'm investing I'm BBIG for a very specific catalyst that has been delayed and delayed and is now here. Of course I'm very confident it will go up this time. The clock is ticking. Naked short positions must be closed by the 18th, and normal short positions will likely be closed as well because it's extremely difficult to navigate maintaining that short position when you owe a spinoff dividend especially with a ton of options generating upward pressure. That's why OSTK went up so much in 2020 I'm the month or two after the dividend. Margin calls and full option chains being ITM every week for weeks and weeks.

You're investing in EVRI because "homie stock" do you even know why the price should go up or down? Do you even have any price ranges in your head for it? Like I'm not saying it's a bad stock but I'm saying your investing mindset is doomed to lose money unless you evolve it. We've been telling you and telling you and you've been ignoring us because you've made money (largely on plays others have suggested) but when any investment you make doesn't fly up within 2 days of when you buy it you're cooked. In a bear market you're going to lose a ton of money doing this.

Evri is down about 30% from when I first mentioned BBIG actually ($24->$17)

Moonroof posted...

Man youve been saying stuff like that for months lol

I mean BBIG is outperforming the market by far in the past few months. If you put your money in BBIG instead of Evri you wouldn't have lost 100k and would still have the upside we haven't achieved yet

SEC amendment filed confirming the PR, probably last chance to get in in the $3 range I gotta figure. Expecting a large gap up Monday.

Thank you.

I think this shows you really have gotten better at re-evaluating the game. Because let's be real here, coming into today you lynch me no question.

Don't listen to red, you did well here. It's not about whether there was flailing, it's about attributing motives to actions. I hope I won't just be an autolynch tomorrow, but if I am at least we got scum first. There's nothing about that role that fits the setup. Red continuing to ignore me about why he thinks two extra protective roles makes sense is the writing on the wall that I'm right here-- he's ignoring explaining it because he's entirely been working with scum logic today.

Han's role makes no sense to exist in the setup

That's your #1 reason. Red not calling for blood after he painstakingly said protection made sense before a bodyguard and backup revealed is your #1a that changes it from merely role meta to "reactions from players don't line up with what you'd expect, why?"

Just kill Han

He knows he's got nothing here and has just given up

Anyway the key here is up through the 18th, then through distribution on the 27th, then the fallout of margin calls + option chains in the weeks to months afterwards. If you look at OSTK its digital dividend

April 6th is Declaration (OSTK Price $5.50 - price went pretty linearly up through April 24th. We are here)
April 24th is Ex-Dividend (OSTK Price $9.92) (May 16th for BBIG)
April 27th is Record (OSTK Price $12) (May 18th for BBIG)
May 19th is Distribution (OSTK Price $17.87) (May 27th for BBIG)

So at minimum I'm thinking we reach $10 by Distribution, $7 by Record.

The thing is I think there are alot more abuses going on with BBIG than there were with OSTK. Keep in mind in a post GME/AMC world and with a lot more payment for order flow services in use than there were in early 2020, there are a lot more tools to suppress the price and they're being more aggressively deployed for that reason. But with a dividend that isn't delivered in straight cash, the bill becomes due. Any naked shorting has to be resolved (and I think with a huge dark pool/option chain/failure to deliver and short exempt numbers like BBIG, this is a certainty to exist) which is going to push it up outright-- and then shorts are probably going to be covering as well. Then you've got tons and tons of option chains which will be fully in the money, which will make the market maker need to hedge.

OSTK peaked by August with $120 and was around $50 in July. I think anyone heavily invested in the July/October option chains (or shares, obviously) are sitting very pretty right now. This is going to be very strong, and the fact that they weren't able to push it below $3 today (and believe me, they tried and the market dumped to have their back) is super bullish. Literally the only way this gets stopped is if something comes to stop the dividend-- which is why I'm not saying everyone in here should dump their whole portfolio in, but yeah. Buy big, sell half at $6.50 and see where the rest goes, seems like a hard play to lose right now.

Mantis
Sylvie (for Loki)

Suprak the Stud posted...

Lets do one more auto for Sylvie next hour!

Will do this for Loki

I would kill red, no question.

But under no circumstances do I kill red before Han so it's a meaningless hypothetical for me. RedxHan scum pair makes too much sense for me though.

If you wanna play like a coward huge profit to be made by selling 3p for next week or buying shares and selling 3.5c for next week.

No chance this thing isn't flying next week though.

Rolled out my weeklies to 5/27

Currently have 30 3c, 30 5c, 13 4c, 7 6c at that date. Most of that is from the profit from the weeklies (I had 47 of them)

Recommend shares for anyone with more money though.

Spidey sense is tingling that it pops if it cracks $3.40.

Probably roll my weekly contracts shortly. Think there's more upside than cashing them out for $40 each.

Loki
Thor

I am wildly skilled at mafia but I don't think that is a wildly skilled play. It's needlessly complicated and doesn't make Kirby look good if I get killed because yeah I do think he looks very indielike now.

Also while making Kirby look not like scum, there's no chance he's the two of us that would get lynched first, because we really shouldn't be indie hunting right now.

I am so glad Sultan pointed that out instead of me.

Dammit SBell see I wasn't making stuff up Sultan is just really repenting for being a pineapple brain.

Lopen posted...

(This loses some weight if doc didn't save Chang, which I thought was plausible)

And please don't say "why did you claim bulletproof after you determined doc was not likely in the game"

I wasn't thinking about everything as clearly then that's why-- I also didn't have Han's bad claim on the table to make it obvious he's scum, nor as many Sultan reactions to gauge. This is only after digesting stuff and the day unfolded. If I was able to see everything now at that point and had time to take it all in (even ignoring the Kirby which would have bailed me out) I would not have faked Bulletproof then, but it is what it is.

Also the basic logic of Sultan -> me vs me -> Sultan being functionally identical is still right

htaeD posted...

Lopen, when and why did you change your mind about Sultan being scum again?

Thought process on Sultan being scum (already explained earlier briefly, will go into further)

Initial thought was scum thought Sultan was doomed after no kill and Chang claiming roleblocked, decided to gambit his life (This loses some weight if doc didn't save Chang, which I thought was plausible)
Han's claim to me is ridiculous in terms of game composition and mechanics. To me I'm thinking Han is scum who got trapped into a bad claim by IGCD claiming protection. Red not calling it ridiculous furthers my suspicion there.
Sultan being excited to have stopped kill then disappointed when Kirby claimed the reason the kill stopped tracks with organic reaction. He also seemingly had doubts I was scum-- I think scum Sultan is not a good enough roleplayer for this and would just keep trying to paint me as scum for other reasons, tunnel visioning the gambit.
Further analysis based on these two items says Han is likely scum trying to trick us into two town mislynches rather than scum overextending to kill me. Town Han probably doesn't take sides so quickly-- being roleblocked is not a reason to believe the roleblocker by default over your supposed town lean.

So there was no "aha!" moment where I decided he was town, just a gradual evolution of what I thought was likely over the day based on how he and Han played and reacted to things.

I will say if Sultan ends up killing me, still kill Han next, and do not suspect Sultan.

Kirby321 posted...

If Lopen was the one who fired the killing shot on me, he wouldn't know that the kill failed because I was Bulletproof. It's very plausible that he believed Sultan's claim.

I have no clue what that could mean, but this is a scenario I could see where scum wouldn't immediately know the truth. Reading your post again, I think we're actually talking about completely separate things. But perhaps this scenario is food for thought and would explain Lopen's panic.

But if that scenario were true, then Sultan would be a townie completely lying about their roleblock ability. And if that was the case... then you and Lopen both totally fell for the bait.

You usually get a PM saying you were roleblocked if you're roleblocked so it is unlikely that scum would have sent the kill and not known they were roleblocked

Now I did have a game in FF7 mafia where I was Serial Killer, killed red, he didn't die, and that made me think scum bulletproof and fake a detective claim on them. It ended up working out because he was scum godfather anyway but yeah.

But I think that was poor host form and not usually how it's run.

ScareChan posted...

can be seen as wifom

You can't just use wifom to explain away anything contrary to your read

You need to determine whether the play makes sense from an honest perspective or whether it's faked

I've given you how my read on Sultan evolved over the day-- if you don't believe it, you should say it's wifom. If you do believe it, you shouldn't assume wifom just because that's a possibility.

changmas posted...

i really don't see red with the other two.

Do you not buy my theory that red was overthinking protection and that got Han caught in a implausible power claim? Because I by far think that's the most likely

I think Red not thrusting a spear through Han for that claim is super suspicious too when he was saying that King + Bus + RB is enough protection and now we've got a Bodyguard + Backup on top of that.

My hypothetical two scumteams

If Han is scum his scumbuddies are Red and Scare
If Lopen is scum his scumbuddies are Sultan and SBell

Also for all this talk of Sultan being a thorn in scum's side being allowed to live that Scare and Han are trying to give Han credit for it should be noted that I helped push for Sultan as king not Han (because I didn't trust Chang's judgment, and I believe I was right to do so given his reactions now)