Lurker > KamikazePotato

So here's a question - at what point do we think that Samus overperforming here? Because I kind of doubt that Tifa almost beats Snake.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

XIII_rocks posted...

Maybe it's just wishful thinking but Samus > Mario has been hyped every damn time they've been set to face off. Could it not just be that Samus can't beat Mario? But is maybe indirectly the #2 character?

I think most of us know that this is by far the most likely scenario, but it's fun to theorize anyway.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Also at the rate these matches are progressing, we're going to have to start saying that Sephiroth rSFFd Tifa instead of the other way around!
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Samus is making a bigger mess of the stats than anyone else. It's really hard to see her match against Mario as anything more than rSFF right now.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Plot twist: Sephiroth rSFFd Tifa
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

LusterSoldier posted...

It could have even been higher than 450 rallied votes, because removing 450 votes from Zelda would give Zelda 52.40% with anonymous users (Zelda had 48.82% with registered users). We would still have a fairly large split of about 3.5% between registered and anonymous users even with 450 votes removed from Zelda.

Samus/Mario had a 3.25% voter split difference, so none of this is out of the realm of possibility. Mario does very well with registered voters.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

1. Not all of those votes go to Zelda.
2. Even if 100% of them due, it's still lower than the final margin of victory.
3. Even if you ignore all that anyway (why), Mario gets 200 extra free votes from the registered users by default.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Sonic being <40% on Samus is a lot worse than he's ever been in the past. He's currently getting 38%. Even if you assume that Samus is the #2 on this site which she is it's just embarrassing. He's not supposed to be that far off from say, Crono, and Crono gets like 45% on Cloud.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Sonic is currently projected to get 38.42% on Samus.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

haloiscoolisbak posted...

Zelda benefitted massively from hentai rallies. Mario was losing the user vote and winning the anon vote after a few hours according to luster.

Final numbers of Samus/Mario:

Mario Registered: 4875
Samus Registered: 4398

Samus Unregistered: 5154
Mario Unregistered: 5015

Percentage of Anonymous Voters: 52.3%

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Final Numbers of Zelda/Mario:

Mario Registered: 4403
Zelda Registered: 4200

Zelda Unregistered: 5333
Mario Unregistered: 4436

Percentage of Anonymous Voters: 53.17%

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There's no evidence of a major rally. Minor one, probably. Not enough to flip the result.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Zelda is more of a constant than Mario was. That dude is lucky he gets the hierarchy against Samus.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

At the moment, what I'm most taking away from this is that every result falls into place if the only weirdness happened in Mario>Samus being super fraudulent.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Sonic is so bad
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Samus gets like 61% on Sonic? Yeah sure whatever

This contest
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Does look a bit wonky.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

haloiscoolisbak posted...

And surely if you're up voting a thread you're following thru on a Zelda vote. Otherwise you'd down vote or ignore

This is super inaccurate. All those threads have images attached to them - you click on the thread, it pulls up the image. You have to scroll down to the comments section to find a different link if you want to go to GameFAQs, and that's assuming you care about the contest match in the first place - the vast majority of the people there just want to look at the attached image, the title of the reddit thread itself might as well be filler text. I think you're grossly overestimating how many people are upvoting those links for GameFAQs instead of porn. The Reddit->GameFAQs crossover rate is probably around 10% of the people who upvote and I'm not exaggerating. Remove all the rallies and Zelda wins anyway. It's not a close enough result to swing things.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Feeling good about my 'literally has Zelda in the name' comments right about now!
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

I disagree with that, but there's not much point in arguing when we're 4 hours away from the answer.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

If there's a bandwagon involved in this run, it's a small one. Zelda's results line up well with 2013 if you extrapolate through Ramza.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Some weird logic in the Snake/Samus writeups. Were those made before Zelda started beating Mario worse than she beat Snake? (Not that Samus still cant win)
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Ganondorf is going to be very underrated adjusting through Mega Man as well.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Yuna 25.26%
Tidus 15.17%

Hmm
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

pjbasis posted...

goty announcement?

2018 Game Awards Show.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Weirdness exists one way or another. We can't get away from the fact that Samus outdid Mario's performance on her FF7 guy, then Tifa 52-48d Sephiroth, and then Mario 52-48d Samus. Someone got rSFFd somewhere.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

transcience posted...

as for mario/samus weirdness, you also need tifa/sephiroth to be legit.

Why can't it be?
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

transcience posted...

why are people confident in samus? you need some mario/samus weirdness

Answered your own question.

Granted, I'm not comfortable in anyone at this point. Really seems like an 'anything is possible' scenario for every remaining match on the right side of the bracket.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Snake will help save the stats by giving us non-hierarchy matches

Until then, lol
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

My current theory is that Tifa>Sephiroth had no SFF or rSFF in it, and Samus just got rSFFd by Mario. Because Mario isn't looking so hot here.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Mario man what are you doing
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

It's freakin' Mario is in danger of being replaced with It's freaking (The Legend of) Zelda.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Woah, he caught up really fast there.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Zelda got the first like 20 votes.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Was great being on The Show again! Thanks for inviting me.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Arti posted...

I googled this and found a resetera thread from Nov 20 this year talking about this

so it has nothing to with SSB at all

The Persona subreddit lied to me!
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Including all the older games too!

https://www.metacritic.com/game/psp/shin-megami-tensei-persona-2---innocent-sin

Smooth, SSB fanbase.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Cloud (2013c) has a strength of 38.50 against Base Link.
Link (2013c) has a strength of 52.23 against Base Link.
Link wins with 63.14% of the vote!

Hey guys Cloud is actually overperforming!!
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

If you put Tifa on these lists you have to put Mega Man X as well. They're basically equal.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Well there does exist the possibility of something like Snake>Mario>Samus>Snake
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Lopen posted...

Yikes. This is gross. Cloud should get back above 40% but yeah I think he's very possibly as low as #6 on this site now

To put things into perspective - based on the current result, Super Alucard gets like 30% on Link. Link is just obscenely strong this year.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Well, when I mean #2, I mean indirectly (for what that's worth these days when the entire top tier is Nintendo-related). Mario can very easily Hierarchy his way past Zelda even if he's weaker, but if he can't then it gets fuzzier. Zelda might be able to match what he did to Sephiroth.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

I think Zelda can be #2, but she already proved that on her own merits. This match doesn't change my opinion on that - I thought Zelda/Snake/Mario/Samus were a tossup before this already!
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Here's the fun part:

Cloud is possibly still the #2 character on this site.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Hmm.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Relevant time to bump this topic.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

That was a fun first minute.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Cloud looking respectable!
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Guest is really slacking this year.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

CaptainOfCrush posted...

I'm willing to give Zelda the benefit of the doubt against Sonic and say that she underperformed slightly due to a bad picture mismatch. If she didn't - which suggests Snake might be a hair stronger indirectly and she just ripped some Nintendo support away from him - it suggests good things for her against Samus and possibly even Mario.

Speaking of pics - I think the one factor that could help Samus in a salty runback against Mario is the picture. They faced in the sprite round before, and I can't imagine that was to her benefit. Samus is a very design-based character and while her sprite is good, I don't think it does her modern 3D design (which is one of the best in the industry) justice. Mario would do very well with a classic SMB3 sprite, especially in a match about the Hierarchy, where classic sprites might remind voters that Samus is facing off against THE Nintendo guy.

Or maybe the result falls within .2% like most of the other rematches have. After a strange start last night, Samus/Tifa is going to end up exactly the same. Same as Crono/Bowser.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

squexa posted...

It's hard to tell exactly what happens when there's no Ness in the poll.

Here's what happens: Luigi beats Big Boss by a little bit.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5232-character-battle-ix-division-3-round-2-luigi-vs-big-boss-vs

Three-ways aren't so weird that you can't spy an obvious LFF situation when you see one. Here's some more proof:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3747-mushroom-division-round-1-big-boss-vs-edgeworth
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7286-division-7-round-1-luigi-vs-miles

The first result is from 2010, which is probably peak Big Boss.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

https://twitter.com/NieR_JPN/status/1070141713648300034

I will never not be stunned at this game selling more than 300k.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.