Lurker > KamikazePotato

Feel like that match is too low on the list. It was the first time Mario ever dropped a close one, it removed a Noble Niner that was guaranteed to walk through his division, and more than anything else in 2013 it emphasized the chaos of everything. It's Freaking Mario died that day.

Vivi losing to Red next round isn't really surprising. Pokemon was at its peak and Squall was in the same poll.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

I have a 100% win rate on the Prediction Challenges I've been in!!
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Tartarus early on is rough. You're definitely having a rougher time of it than I did though.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

GAME FUEL is one of the most fun things to happen in any contest.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Even outside of the wonky hit chances, Persona 3 is just harder than the others. The further the series gets away from being a Shin Megami Tensei series, the easier it gets. Persona 5 was a cakewalk (although part of that was because I knew what I was doing by then).
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Tumblr was an extremely popular site in 2015. It's fallen off some since then but I can absolutely believe that a large-scale rally came from there.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Undertale was extremely lucky. Mass Effect 3 is a perfect first opponent for a rally to take off against.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Janus5k posted...

For Undertale I'd guess its first match, considering how many people called the contest right there.

That match pretty much broke the board for a while. I'm looking at the updater and have a distinct memory of the panic mode setting in around these updates:

Undertale | Mass Effect 3
117 | 79
271 | 73
389 | 75

It's not as important as the L-Block & Draven results, but I think watching an entrant come back from 9000 down in the last 5 hours of the match cemented the fear of god in B8. Rallies in the past had an amazing early vote, and here was one materializing when everyone thought they were safe. Like half the posts in the Stats Topic this year had the word 'rally' in them.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Put this poll up about a week before we saw the last few matches. Figured I should put it up again after we saw Link out in full force.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

#1 is Link/Cloud 2003. Are there even any contests afterwards if Link stomps twice in a row?
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

First exam is hard to ace. Second and third ones are easier, I think.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

transcience posted...

Kefka/Vercetti is this weird contest history footnote that felt pretty big at the time but I cant say that it was really influential after the fact. I ended up leaving it off.

I would disagree with this. That match forever changed how we view the possibility and nature of cheating.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Death is not a hunter unbeknownst to its prey
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Side note that the Kirby/Tidus match reminded me of: anyone else remember the term THE GAUNTLET that was thrown around to describe a string of debatable matches in 2k5? We were really cheesy back then. Moreso than now, at least.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

LordoftheMorons posted...

Days, on the other hand, were pretty tight. I think I only had a week of wiggle room or so (though I did a few unnecessary things that I could have killed to get maybe another week or so).

In my recent Persona 4 playthrough (second time playing), I only followed a guide in the sense that I made sure to pick the right answers to everything. I maxed all the S.Links with literally 0 time slots remaining. I had to reset my PS2 for hours until I finally had a dream with Naoto so I could get some extra S.Link points and make the final meetup progress her S.Link, because I was THAT close to that cutoff.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Persona 3 has a really good soundtrack. Probably the best in the series.

Yukari is trash.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

transience posted...

67.

I was thinking about this match recently. It's the only time I've ever been on Board 8 where the aftermath of a match made me feel distinctly uncomfortable (and I picked Vincent). I remember voting, seeing the results and just...cringing a little as I imagined what the blowback towards the users who supported Kerrigan was going to be.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

75 huh? Tag.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

I would stick Eir's B move on Felicia if I could. Desperation is really good but that B move negating Fury damage and letting Felicia battle dragons without resorting to Glacies has potential. Of course, that would involve sacking my only 5 star Eir for the sake of a build that might be a little better than what I have now, which isn't happening.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Anagram posted...

KamikazePotato posted...

Do you want clarification on this? It's not a spoiler but I'm not sure how little you want to be told about things.

As long as it's not a story spoiler, sure. I don't mind basic world stuff, especially if I'm supposed to know it.

Simply put: each game's supernatural elements work a little differently. The Metaverse as you know it doesn't really exist in Persona 3 or 4, and the way each cast summons and obtains their Personas is different. The Persona 3 cast is actually brute forcing things - they never had an awakening in the same way the Persona 5 cast did. They're cheating with Evokers.

(none of that is a spoiler)
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

P3/P4 characters look a bit younger overall than the P5 characters despite the same age. Mostly due to the different designs of the 3D models.

I'm assuming the Metaverse works the same way in this game, which I admit is a big assumption.

Do you want clarification on this? It's not a spoiler but I'm not sure how little you want to be told about things.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

And as far as the Guru choice goes - pick whatever you want. We've gotten basically everything worth having into contests.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Kamikaze Potato, because without his contest analysis, my bracket would have gone an entirely different way (you should pay closer attention to his analysis next time!)

Appreciate the shoutout, but I did bad this contest so apparently you were really good at picking only the correct parts out of that analysis topic!

Congrats on the Guru win!
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

It's not that big of a deal, dude.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Don't have time to post full comments, but overall it was a really fun episode. The two new guests did a great job!
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

I was really, really hoping that someone would say Zelda would win by 69 votes.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Sephiroth looked better if you take the Ryu match. He looked worse if you take the Amaterasu match. There is no consistent interpretation of Sephiroth in this contest.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Yeah, my comment on the x-stats being Pretty Reliable this year didn't age super well.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Anagram posted...

Is there anything in particular I should be doing to raise academics?

I don't remember specific ways. There's a good number though. It's been mentioned before, but I think it needs to be reiterated that Academics takes a LONG time to max out, like three times as longer as a Charm or Courage.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Cloud's gonna win guys!!!
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Anagram posted...

Huh, thanks. I guess the male teammates are added as social links if you play as a girl, and the female teammates are removed? Or something?

The girl can Social Link everyone in the party. Persona 4 Protagonist can as well. It was eventually made canon that the reason for this is because the Persona 3 Male Protagonist is naturally introverted and closed off from people, while the Persona 3 Female Protagonist is a lot more outgoing.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

It's also recommended that you ace at least one of the major tests (will take a lot of Intelligence), which is more time sensitive than stuff like Charm. If you don't ace at least one major test then you miss out on a Social Link.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Anagram posted...

Joined the Kendo team, figure it'll have some battle benefits.

Social Links giving benefits outside of making Fusion easier is something that only started with Persona 4, and even then the effects were relatively minor. Persona 5 is when they started adding all sorts of extra stuff.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

tag
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Anagram posted...

I'll be honest: fighting enemies while dressed in normal school clothes is weird. I don't know if P4 or P5 invented costumes, but it was the right call.

The lack of costumes in P3/P4 is good (and something you'll get used to, I imagine). The costumes worked in P5 due to the theme, but it wouldn't work for P3/P4, where the emphasis focuses much more on the fact that the fact that the party is made up of high schoolers who are in way over their heads.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

AlecTrevelyan006 posted...

6) Didn't burn this entire board to the ground when we probably deserved it multiple times over the years

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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Haste_2 posted...

Still, I wonder if Sonic really is weaker than Luigi....

Sonic is probably underrated in the stats simply because it would be kind of nuts to see him decline so much, but he did bad in every match so there's not much I can do for him.

Sephiroth's performance were really inconsistent. His matches against Captain Falcon and Ryu suggest the stronger Sephiroth, but his performances on Mario, Amaterasu and Wesker suggest the weaker Sephiroth.

Sephiroth was the most inconsistent character in the main bracket. He simultaneously made different parts of his division look amazing and terrible.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

xp1337 posted...

I'd be willing to believe a slight Zelda bandwagon coupled with a Samus overperformance/Snake underperformance in that match I think.

For the record, the stats did end up with Snake looking like he underperformed a little. Match is closer to 55-45 than we we got.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Well, 62% on Aerith isn't really 'beats Mario'-worthy either. That division doesn't work if you adjust it up.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Team Rocket Elite posted...

Is Zelda still getting bandwagoned? Against Link, Zelda dropped about 10 percentage points from the freeze until now. Against Cloud, Zelda only dropped 2.

Maybe, maybe not. The issue comes with her division and Snake. Adjusting Zelda continuously upwards makes them a lot stronger than everything else indicates they should be. I suppose it could be a scenario where Zelda is just a character that rises to the competition, but to me it feels a lot like the Charizard run.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

redrocket posted...

Why is Zelda so low in the stats?

Her performances in her division don't match up with being able to beat guys like Mario and Cloud. She did good but not THAT good, and going even with Snake in Round 1 of the Legends bracket (when the bandwagon wouldn't have materialized yet) is also a red flag when Snake proceeded to get blown out by Samus.

I wouldn't be surprised if she was underrated in the stats, but yeah. The Legends bracket was a mess and made adjusting things...not easy.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

LeonhartFour posted...

the Zelda we're seeing right now seems consistent with the rest of her matches imhotbqh

Her performances in her division don't match up with being able to beat guys like Mario and Cloud. She did good but not THAT good, and going even with Snake in Round 1 of the Legends bracket (when the bandwagon wouldn't have materialized yet) is also a red flag when Snake proceeded to get blown out by Samus.

I wouldn't be surprised if she was underrated in the stats, but yeah. The Legends bracket was a mess and made adjusting things...not easy.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Also, here's some of my favorite bits:

Donkey Kong - 28.53
Ryu - 28.39

Vivi Ornitier - 31.68
Sonic the Hedgehog - 31.65

Garrus Vakarian - 19.3
Commander Shepard - 18.99

Scorpion - 23.42
Waluigi - 23.37

Princess Peach - 27.01
Squall Leonhart - 26.82
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

The Mana Sword posted...

Zelda seems a little low to me

Zelda in her matches in her division, as well as her matches against Snake/Sonic, is simply not the same creature as the one we have now

And if she is, I certainly couldn't make the stats work to make it so without exploding a lot of other things
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Link - 50
Samus Aran - 39.96
Cloud Strife - 39.48
Mario - 39.28
Zelda - 36.38
Solid Snake - 36.15
Crono - 35.48
Mega Man - 35.33
Pikachu - 34.86
Tifa - 33.1
Mega Man X - 32.98
Ganondorf - 32.98
Luigi - 32.2
Bowser - 32.06
Sephiroth - 32.01
Kirby - 32
Vivi Ornitier - 31.68
Sonic the Hedgehog - 31.65
Yoshi - 31.51
Alucard - 31.27
Zero - 30.29
Auron - 29.03
Pokemon Trainer Red - 28.89
Dante - 28.75
Donkey Kong - 28.53
Ryu - 28.39
Sora - 28.37
Charizard - 27.86
Mewtwo - 27.74
Big Boss - 27.63
Aerith Gainsborough - 27.51
Chun-Li - 27.1
Princess Peach - 27.01
Squall Leonhart - 26.82
2B - 26.81
Knuckles - 26.56
Terra Branford - 26.3
Amaterasu - 26.25
Crash Bandicoot - 26.04
Geralt - 26.04
Fox McCloud - 26.02
Vincent Valentine - 25.65
Bayonetta - 25.58
Kratos - 25.51
Kefka - 25.36
Leon Kennedy - 25.29
Ryu Hayabusa - 25.28
Yuna - 25.25
Sub-Zero - 25.13
Simon Belmont - 24.9
Ness - 24.82
Frog - 24.71
Magus - 24.68
Phoenix Wright - 24.58
Tidus - 24.57
Pac-Man - 24.52
Ike - 24.25
Wario - 24.08
Ridley - 23.95
Jill Valentine - 23.89
Cecil Harvey - 23.86
Captain Falcon - 23.83
Spyro the Dragon - 23.75
Lara Croft - 23.67
Scorpion - 23.42
Waluigi - 23.37
Shadow the Hedgehog - 23.2
Zidane Tribal - 22.95
Rosalina - 22.9
Toad - 22.01
The Boss - 21.32
Chris Redfield - 21.17
Shovel Knight - 20.88
Revolver Ocelot - 20.84
GlaDOS - 20.81
King DeDeDe - 20.63
Bomberman - 20.38
L-Block - 20.2
Albert Wesker - 20.19
Tails - 20.19
Lucina - 20.06
KOS-MOS - 19.83
Lightning - 19.77
Garrus Vakarian - 19.3
Ramza Beoulve - 19.06
Isaac - 19.01
Commander Shepard - 18.99
Richter Belmont - 18.87
Shulk - 18.81
Master Hand - 18.8
Velvet Crowe - 18.55
Metal Sonic - 18.54
King K. Rool - 18.52
Joel - 18.28
Riku - 18.21
Ellie - 18.07
Master Chief - 17.97
Ezio Auditore da Firenze - 17.95
Lloyd Irving - 17.92
Geno - 17.75
Ryo Hazuki - 17.54
Nathan Drake - 17.47
Monika - 17.07
Claire Redfield - 16.95
Aqua - 16.9
Cuphead - 16.34
Guile - 16.29
Shantae - 16.22
Noctis Lucis Caelum - 15.96
Kazuma Kiryu - 15.95
Yu Narukami - 15.91
Dragonborn - 15.84
Joker / Ren Amamiya - 15.74
Primrose - 15.64
Aya Brea - 15.56
Goro Majima - 15.32
Metal Man - 15.2
D.Va - 14.82
Miles Edgeworth - 14.51
Gordon Freeman - 14.5
James Sunderland - 14.45
Neptune - 14.26
Neku Sakuraba - 14.11
Aloy - 13.95
Godot - 13.86
John Marston - 13.68
Estelle Bright - 13.45
Sans - 13.15
Monokuma - 13.01
Hat Kid - 12.94
Isabelle - 12.76
Victor Sullivan - 12.58
Quiet - 12.13
Cayde-6 - 11.9
Chloe Price - 8.65
Draven - 6.22

This is maybe not entirely done but I'm probably not changing it much from here on out.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Speaking of rankings:

Link - 50
Samus Aran - 39.96
Cloud Strife - 39.48
Mario - 39.28
Zelda - 36.38
Solid Snake - 36.15
Crono - 35.48
Mega Man - 35.33
Pikachu - 34.86
Tifa - 33.1
Mega Man X - 32.98
Ganondorf - 32.98
Luigi - 32.2
Bowser - 32.06
Sephiroth - 32.01
Kirby - 32
Vivi Ornitier - 31.68
Sonic the Hedgehog - 31.65
Yoshi - 31.51
Alucard - 31.27
Zero - 30.29
Auron - 29.03
Pokemon Trainer Red - 28.89
Dante - 28.75
Donkey Kong - 28.53
Ryu - 28.39
Sora - 28.37
Charizard - 27.86
Mewtwo - 27.74
Big Boss - 27.63
Aerith Gainsborough - 27.51
Chun-Li - 27.1
Princess Peach - 27.01
Squall Leonhart - 26.82
2B - 26.81
Knuckles - 26.56
Terra Branford - 26.3
Amaterasu - 26.25
Crash Bandicoot - 26.04
Geralt - 26.04
Fox McCloud - 26.02
Vincent Valentine - 25.65
Bayonetta - 25.58
Kratos - 25.51
Kefka - 25.36
Leon Kennedy - 25.29
Ryu Hayabusa - 25.28
Yuna - 25.25
Sub-Zero - 25.13
Simon Belmont - 24.9
Ness - 24.82
Frog - 24.71
Magus - 24.68
Phoenix Wright - 24.58
Tidus - 24.57
Pac-Man - 24.52
Ike - 24.25
Wario - 24.08
Ridley - 23.95
Jill Valentine - 23.89
Cecil Harvey - 23.86
Captain Falcon - 23.83
Spyro the Dragon - 23.75
Lara Croft - 23.67
Scorpion - 23.42
Waluigi - 23.37
Shadow the Hedgehog - 23.2
Zidane Tribal - 22.95
Rosalina - 22.9
Toad - 22.01
The Boss - 21.32
Chris Redfield - 21.17
Shovel Knight - 20.88
Revolver Ocelot - 20.84
GlaDOS - 20.81
King DeDeDe - 20.63
Bomberman - 20.38
L-Block - 20.2
Albert Wesker - 20.19
Tails - 20.19
Lucina - 20.06
KOS-MOS - 19.83
Lightning - 19.77
Garrus Vakarian - 19.3
Ramza Beoulve - 19.06
Isaac - 19.01
Commander Shepard - 18.99
Richter Belmont - 18.87
Shulk - 18.81
Master Hand - 18.8
Velvet Crowe - 18.55
Metal Sonic - 18.54
King K. Rool - 18.52
Joel - 18.28
Riku - 18.21
Ellie - 18.07
Master Chief - 17.97
Ezio Auditore da Firenze - 17.95
Lloyd Irving - 17.92
Geno - 17.75
Ryo Hazuki - 17.54
Nathan Drake - 17.47
Monika - 17.07
Claire Redfield - 16.95
Aqua - 16.9
Cuphead - 16.34
Guile - 16.29
Shantae - 16.22
Noctis Lucis Caelum - 15.96
Kazuma Kiryu - 15.95
Yu Narukami - 15.91
Dragonborn - 15.84
Joker / Ren Amamiya - 15.74
Primrose - 15.64
Aya Brea - 15.56
Goro Majima - 15.32
Metal Man - 15.2
D.Va - 14.82
Miles Edgeworth - 14.51
Gordon Freeman - 14.5
James Sunderland - 14.45
Neptune - 14.26
Neku Sakuraba - 14.11
Aloy - 13.95
Godot - 13.86
John Marston - 13.68
Estelle Bright - 13.45
Sans - 13.15
Monokuma - 13.01
Hat Kid - 12.94
Isabelle - 12.76
Victor Sullivan - 12.58
Quiet - 12.13
Cayde-6 - 11.9
Chloe Price - 8.65
Draven - 6.22

This is maybe not entirely done but I'm probably not changing it much from here on out.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7372-finals-bracket-2-zelda-vs-sonic
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7362-finals-bracket-round-1-snake-vs-zelda
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7376-loser-bracket-round-2-sonic-vs-snake
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7379-finals-bracket-semifinal-zelda-vs-mario
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7386-loser-bracket-final-zelda-vs-cloud
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7383-loser-bracket-round-4-mario-vs-samus

Someone please help me reconcile all these results with

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7381-loser-bracket-round-3-snake-vs-samus
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

XIII_rocks posted...

Yeah you're still not grasping that the main issue was the sheer repetitiveness, not lack of consideration or whatever.

XIII_rocks posted...

Then he lost and I got what I "deserved" in your warped vision of karmic justice

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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Get over yourself. Everyone celebrates when they win and attacks the enemy when they lose in these things. Your euphoria over Mario winning was someone else's despair, and you (and a bunch of other people) were hardly silent over your happiness or 'considerate of other people's feelings' or whatever in the world you're trying to get at. I don't really care if you rallied to get the win, nor should anyone else - there's 15k other people who voted for Mario, a bunch others who rallied, a bunch others who supported him, ect. You are not Mario, and taking personal attacks against Mario as personal attacks against you is ridiculous.

Dozens of people have complained about the Mario Clutch for years. I've done it a lot less than most. I've mostly talked about registered bonus votes being bunk, and Mario using his Hierarchy to worm his way over matches he (probably) shouldn't be winning. I'm the guy who makes the x-stats so this is kind of important for me to talk about.

P.S. I actually wanted to rally for Samus (and Cloud) but didn't because I saw you being passionate about the results and didn't want to mess with outcomes that didn't really matter to me. So stuff it.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Not_Wylvane posted...

Can't you all just enjoy the contest without making everything god damn life-or-death?

I would have stopped voting in this contest after like Round 2 if I didn't create some fake investment in characters. Results get boring if you don't super care about Nintendo or Final Fantasy VII.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.