Lurker > LusterSoldier

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TopicWill you still call it rSFF even if it's blatantly a rally?
LusterSoldier
12/12/18 10:32:30 PM
#5
UltimaterializerX posted...
She probably won't even win today's match.


Hentai rallies should bail out Zelda again if it gets too close.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
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TopicCharacter Battle X Contest Analysis Crew - Part 10
LusterSoldier
12/12/18 10:20:59 PM
#356
KamikazePotato posted...
Her performances in her division don't match up with being able to beat guys like Mario and Cloud. She did good but not THAT good, and going even with Snake in Round 1 of the Legends bracket (when the bandwagon wouldn't have materialized yet) is also a red flag when Snake proceeded to get blown out by Samus.

I wouldn't be surprised if she was underrated in the stats, but yeah. The Legends bracket was a mess and made adjusting things...not easy.


I'm hoping we can at least get some good bonus matches to get additional data for some adjustments.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
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TopicThe Show EP 9 - Tifa Shocks Seph, GotY Announcement, Time to Retire Link? w/ KP
LusterSoldier
12/12/18 10:07:45 PM
#74
Cloud managed to complete his salty runback against Mario that first started 16 years ago. It took us about 16 years to get another 1v1 Cloud/Mario match, and they also haven't faced each other in 4-ways or 3-ways either. Cloud pulled off his salty runback by out-rallying Mario. Here were the rallies that I spotted for both characters.

https://www.reddit.com/r/FinalFantasy/comments/a5d7oi/cloud_vs_mario_on_gamefaqs_best_character_contest/
https://www.reddit.com/r/FinalFantasy/comments/a5mcg4/cloud_needs_your_help_in_the_gamefaqs_character/
https://www.reddit.com/r/FinalFantasyVII/comments/a5m7a5/cloud_needs_your_help_in_the_gamefaqs_character/
https://www.reddit.com/r/FFRecordKeeper/comments/a5m2ko/cloud_needs_your_help_in_the_gamefaqs_character/

https://www.reddit.com/r/gaming/comments/a5lym2/mario_vs_cloud_on_gamefaqs_vote_now/
https://www.reddit.com/r/SuperMarioOdyssey/comments/a5lktb/mario_is_losing_in_the_gamefaqs_character_battle/
https://www.reddit.com/r/Mario/comments/a5lgyw/mario_is_losing_in_the_gamefaqs_character_battle/

While the rally on the gaming subreddit was a neutral rally, it was clearly going to favor Mario a lot more than Cloud. The most successful Mario rally was on the Mario subreddit, where it reached the number 1 spot on the subreddit at one point.

Ulti also attempted to rally for Cloud on Twitch by donating money to a streamer who really loves FFVII in exchange for a shout out to his subscribers to go vote for Cloud. The effect of the shout out produced a small spike for Cloud for about 15 minutes, confirming that Twitch rallying is fairly ineffective.

I estimated there were about 800 rallied votes, with about 600 for Cloud and 200 for Mario. At the 12 hour point in the match before most of the rallying started, Mario had 51.91% with registered users and 46.63% with anonymous users, which is still slightly over a 5% difference.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
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TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1322
LusterSoldier
12/12/18 9:55:02 PM
#130
Legends and Loser Bracket, Round 3 and later

Cloud Strife vs. Mario
Registered Vote Result:
Cloud Strife - 4320 (47.73%)
Mario - 4730 (52.27%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Cloud Strife - 6027 (54.33%)
Mario - 5066 (45.67%)

This was almost nearly a 7% difference between registered/anonymous users, but the reason for this huge difference was the rallying for Cloud. Based on the percentage of registered user votes after 12 hours into the match, we were on pace to finish around 46.75% registered users. This allowed me to estimate that there were about 800 rallied votes, with an estimated split of 600 for Cloud and 200 for Mario. There were some rallies for Mario, the most successful one being on the Mario subreddit where the topic did manage to reach the number 1 spot at one point.

Without any rallying, Mario probably would have won by about 250 votes and finished with about 50.50% on Cloud. The results at the 12 hour mark had Mario with 51.91% with registered users and 46.63% with anonymous users, which is only around a 5% difference instead.

Extra info and past results - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1O1QuDMeK4VhHOia7bdBgtVp_F3kRTnGkkjtR0zRyudw/pub
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
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TopicBonus match ideas
LusterSoldier
12/12/18 8:45:32 PM
#2
Anagram posted...
Mario vs Sonic
Pikachu vs Sonic
Samus vs Mega Man
Alucard vs Auron


I don't think Allen would allow the same character in more than one match at the same time.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
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TopicCharacter Battle X Contest Analysis Crew Guest Sign-ups
LusterSoldier
12/12/18 7:32:11 PM
#40
The true contest final is currently up for grabs:

Link vs. Zelda/Cloud Strife -

Still too early in the match to say for sure who will win, so you might want to include 2 separate predictions depending on the winner of today's match.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
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TopicBonus matches should be some good NN matches
LusterSoldier
12/12/18 7:28:29 PM
#11
Link versus Cloud posted...
Why? Cloud>Snake and Samus>MM are pretty obvious, whereas Samus/Cloud and MM/Snake would be in doubt. I think its clear our tiers right now are:


Snake/Cloud allows us to compare Snake to Link using Link/Cloud, so that's one good thing there. Since we're not quite sure on Snake's strength.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
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Topic* Character Battle X First Vote Championship! *
LusterSoldier
12/12/18 7:21:54 PM
#169
2nd vote, 1st for Cloud Strife
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
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TopicBonus matches should be some good NN matches
LusterSoldier
12/12/18 7:15:57 PM
#6
UltimaterializerX posted...
Mario vs Sonic! How have we never seen this?


I would love to see Mario/Sonic, but I know that's going to be a fairly easy 60/40 (or more) for Mario. So we'd be better off seeing Mario/Crono or Sephiroth/Sonic.

VeryInsane posted...
Samus vs Cloud
Mario vs Crono
Snake vs Mega Man
Sonic vs Sephiroth


I'd rather swap Samus and Snake so we get Snake vs. Cloud and Samus vs. Mega Man.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
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TopicCharacter Battle X Oracle Challenge - Losers Final
LusterSoldier
12/12/18 2:14:56 AM
#23
Zelda - 50.44%
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TopicAnyone interested in getting some bonus matches after the true contest final?
LusterSoldier
12/11/18 11:24:02 PM
#8
haloiscoolisbak posted...
Eh, the losers bracket means we'd essentially know the resultv of all of those match ups


The problem is that we got too many rematches, and we still don't have a good read on Sephiroth's strength. To a lesser extent, we're not quite as sure where Snake is because he had to face Zelda and the Samus result is difficult to read into.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
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TopicAnyone interested in getting some bonus matches after the true contest final?
LusterSoldier
12/11/18 11:17:08 PM
#1
Should we have some bonus matches? - Results (18 votes)
Yes
72.22% (13 votes)
13
No
27.78% (5 votes)
5
I had an idea of getting some matches involving only the Noble Nine that have never happened in a 1v1 match. There's only 6 potential match combinations meeting those requirements.

Cloud/Mega Man
Crono/Samus
Crono/Sephiroth
Mario/Sonic
Mega Man/Samus
Sephiroth/Sonic

That's all of the remaining Noble Nine match-ups which have not happened in a 1v1 match. If we were to run multiple bonus matches at the same time, I assume Allen would avoid using the same character in more than one match. Which limits us to a maximum of 3 matches running at the same time. My personal picks are Cloud/Mega Man, Crono/Sephiroth, and Mario/Sonic. We were already denied Cloud/Mega Man in the Loser bracket, so that's one of my first choices. Mario/Sonic is another match that many people have been wanting to see for a long time.

I would still like to see a 4th bonus match included since that is possible, but I have no idea what to go with for the 4th bonus match. Maybe even a Link/Snake rematch of the 2013 bonus match, especially because Link has faced only one non-Nintendo opponent this contest.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
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TopicThe Show EP 9 - Tifa Shocks Seph, GotY Announcement, Time to Retire Link? w/ KP
LusterSoldier
12/11/18 10:52:31 PM
#67
Here's something I posted in the Stats Topic:

LusterSoldier posted...
Link vs. Zelda
Registered Vote Result:
Link - 5787 (62.18%)
Zelda - 3520 (37.82%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Link - 6825 (66.06%)
Zelda - 3507 (33.94%)

Zelda does almost 4% better with registered users, but that's because of the Zelda bandwagon near the start of the match. If we ignored the first 12 hours of votes, Link would have gotten 66.52% on Zelda instead. That suggests the Zelda bandwagon was strong enough to inflate her performance by about 3%.

Removing the first 12 hours of votes also gives Link 65.38% with registered users and 68.14% with anonymous users, which is only slightly less than a 3% difference instead.

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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as BK_Sheikah00, Guru Champ!
TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1321
LusterSoldier
12/11/18 9:16:57 PM
#153
Legends and Loser Bracket, Round 3 and later

Link vs. Zelda
Registered Vote Result:
Link - 5787 (62.18%)
Zelda - 3520 (37.82%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Link - 6825 (66.06%)
Zelda - 3507 (33.94%)

Zelda does almost 4% better with registered users, but that's because of the Zelda bandwagon near the start of the match. If we ignored the first 12 hours of votes, Link would have gotten 66.52% on Zelda instead. That suggests the Zelda bandwagon was strong enough to inflate her performance by about 3%.

Removing the first 12 hours of votes also gives Link 65.38% with registered users and 68.14% with anonymous users, which is only slightly less than a 3% difference instead.

Extra info and past results - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1O1QuDMeK4VhHOia7bdBgtVp_F3kRTnGkkjtR0zRyudw/pub
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as BK_Sheikah00, Guru Champ!
TopicSuppose the next character battle was the same time next year
LusterSoldier
12/11/18 9:02:27 PM
#38
For a 64 game series "Best Series Ever II" contest, we can get through the contest in 27 days with the following format:

Round 1 - 4 matches per day
Round 2 - 2 matches per day
Round 3 - 2 matches per day
Round 4 and beyond - 1 match per day

This would even give us a total of 7 days dedicated to one match per day, which is good to see.

A new Best Series Ever contest with 64 game series would be interesting because some game series like Smash, Pokemon, and Elder Scrolls would be even stronger today compared to the 2006 contest. After 2006, we've also gotten new game series like Mass Effect, The Witcher, and Dark Souls.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as BK_Sheikah00, Guru Champ!
TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1321
LusterSoldier
12/11/18 8:41:57 PM
#124
OrangeCrush980 posted...
Series contest could be fun. With how much this site loves Smash Bros it might be able to challenge Legend of Zelda now.


Pokemon would also be a lot stronger today than we saw in 2006 - a top 3 series in strength now.

With an expanded field of 64 game series, we could fit in some more series that were introduced after 2006 such as Mass Effect, The Witcher, and Dark Souls.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as BK_Sheikah00, Guru Champ!
TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1321
LusterSoldier
12/11/18 8:30:23 PM
#115
Rallying for Cloud would be possible on any Final Fantasy related subreddit, so Cloud has some rally sources available to him.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as BK_Sheikah00, Guru Champ!
TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1321
LusterSoldier
12/11/18 7:54:06 PM
#99
creativename posted...
Villains and females would be bad, best series boring, no point in another character contest so soon, and games should wait for GOTD.


Villains would be an even worse contest today than it was in 2005 because it just feels like the site doesn't seem to like villains as much as they used to (see Sephiroth getting weaker the past few years).

A Female character contest doesn't seem to be as terrible now because the site seems to be more comfortable with female characters in their video games. The history of this poll is very interesting:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6262-

Going back to the 2009 poll, there's a huge change in voters playing a custom made female character, which I take as a proxy for the site being more comfortable with female characters in lead roles in their video games.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
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TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1321
LusterSoldier
12/11/18 7:43:44 PM
#86
I would prefer Series Contest 2 as the next mini contest. It would be possible to increase the number of entrants up to 64 game series while running the contest in under 1 month by doing multiple matches per day.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
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TopicCharacter Battle X Contest Analysis Crew Guest Sign-ups
LusterSoldier
12/11/18 7:11:05 PM
#39
I would like to claim the next match.

Cloud Strife/Mario vs. Zelda - Luster Soldier
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
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TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1321
LusterSoldier
12/11/18 7:09:34 PM
#43
ShatteredElysium posted...
I feel dirty wanting Mario to win for my brackets sake despite far, far preferring Cloud. Not going to vote though


Or you could hold off until near the end of the match and then vote for Cloud if the match is not close at all.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
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Topic* Character Battle X First Vote Championship! *
LusterSoldier
12/11/18 7:07:58 PM
#167
1st vote, 1st for Mario

jC8DmVS
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
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TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1321
LusterSoldier
12/11/18 7:05:31 PM
#33
Cloud got a quick surge near the end of the board vote to take the lead before the freeze kicked in.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
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TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1321
LusterSoldier
12/11/18 7:04:25 PM
#30
Calintares posted...
why does it show 100% to one entrant during the first five minutes?


You must be looking at the results on this page:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/features/cbx_vote_results

Instead, you should go straight to the actual poll results page for the match.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
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TopicCharacter Battle X Oracle Challenge - Winners Final + Losers Round 5
LusterSoldier
12/11/18 6:57:50 PM
#111
Mario - 52.15%
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
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Topic~*Ultimaterializer's Post-Contest Analysis!!*~
LusterSoldier
12/11/18 6:06:54 PM
#90
Ulti_PCA posted...
-to vote, one HAD to vote in every match; this one was very underrated pre-contest but its value became apparent later


I think this idea was just fine for Character Battles where it's at least more likely that someone will recognize one of the characters from each match and pick them.

For a Games Contest, this would be a bad idea. It's a lot harder to sell people on the idea of voting for a game they've never played if you had a match where someone has not played either game. This would a lot more likely in the future Game of the Decade contest in 2020.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
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TopicSuppose the next character battle was the same time next year
LusterSoldier
12/11/18 5:44:09 AM
#31
haloiscoolisbak posted...
Consoles would be perfect for a mini contest


Yes, but I think 2019 is too early for that because the Switch is fairly young and would be on the weaker side of consoles if we ran the contest in 2019. Maybe 2021 would be a good time to run the Consoles Contest. In 2021, the PS4 and Xbox One will be closer to the end of their life cycle and the Switch will have a much better library of games by then.

A good mini contest for 2019 would be another Best Series Ever contest, but with 64 game series instead of 32. We can definitely get through that contest in about 1 month by running multiple matches per day for the early rounds.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
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TopicSuppose the next character battle was the same time next year
LusterSoldier
12/11/18 5:02:07 AM
#21
Ngamer64 posted...
- I'd prefer to take 2019 off and only have a "mini" Contest if anything

- ...because we don't want to be burned out before Game of the Decade in early 2020!


I agree, a mini contest would be best for 2019 if we have a contest in 2019. But after that, we should try to get back to regular major contests again (at least one major contest per year).

SB did say that he was committed to running contests more often when he posted this topic:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/6-gamefaqs-announcements/76238326
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
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Topic~*Ultimaterializer's Post-Contest Analysis!!*~
LusterSoldier
12/11/18 2:44:40 AM
#35
Ulti_PCA posted...
The ones that stand out as being thoroughly ridiculous are Zack, Fallout 3, 1995, and Dante. Fallout 3 happened because of the format (Game of the Decade), and 1995 happened because Allen had the bright idea to make a contest called Best Year in Gaming, an idea so dumb that Allen has yet to add it to the list of past contests as of this writing. Seriously: https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/features/contest


The Years Contest didn't have any seeds. I tried assigning seeds to all of the years in the bracket based on how each division has been seeded in past contests with a 4 division, 32 entrant bracket. The Wild Card years were treated as 9 seeds. What we end up with are the following seeds:

1 seeds - 1995, 1997, 1991, 1998
2 seeds - 2008, 1996, 2011, 2015
3 seeds - 2001, 2000, 1994, 2013
4 seeds - 1985, 2007, 2002, 1992
5 seeds - 1987, 2012, 2010, 2016
6 seeds - 2014, 1990, 2004, 2003
7 seeds - 2009, 1989, 2006, 2005
8 seeds - 1986, 1999, 1988, 1993
9 seeds - 1979, 1983, 1981, 1978

With the exception of the 1 seeds, most of these projected seeds don't really make sense, confirming that the bracket wasn't really seeded in a traditional sense.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
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TopicThe Show EP 9 - Tifa Shocks Seph, GotY Announcement, Time to Retire Link? w/ KP
LusterSoldier
12/10/18 11:09:52 PM
#57
Ngamer64 posted...
So the Samus votes were all Metroid subreddit based, no one went wild for her on the hentai boards?


https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/77285966/913871231

That's the user who normally posts the hentai rallies and he was busy that day, so he couldn't post them. Nanis has also posted some hentai rallies for Zelda in an earlier match against Mario, but he didn't show up to post hentai rallies for Samus.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
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TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1320
LusterSoldier
12/10/18 10:52:30 PM
#418
Once this match is over, I'll try to see what happens to the overall result if the first several hours of votes were removed. That should give us an idea as to what the actual result would have been without the bandwagoned votes getting in the way.

Cloud/Zelda would give us a better idea as to how strong Zelda is compared to Link, but that requires Mario to lose. Even then, the result of Cloud/Zelda would be tainted if Zelda has retained her bandwagon after losing to Link and rallies can also make things more complicated.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
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TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1320
LusterSoldier
12/10/18 10:45:59 PM
#416
Calintares posted...
is Zelda gonna end up doing better or worse than Cloud here?


Zelda is already below Cloud's percentage on Link as of the most recent update.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
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TopicCharacter Battle X Contest Analysis Crew - Part 10
LusterSoldier
12/10/18 10:10:12 PM
#225
LeonhartFour posted...
Well, it looks like Crono's going to come very close to the original projection against Cloud this time, so we can remake those stats after this match.

Weird that Cloud/Crono is going to be noticeably different after Crono/Bowser and Samus/Tifa went almost identically both times.


Cloud/Crono might have been affected by the Samus rally on the Metroid subreddit. I think that rally went heavily for Cloud based on the anonymous user result being nearly 4% higher compared to the first match between those two. Cloud is more recognizable to Samus rally voters due to being in Smash. Even then, I'd say that probably only amounts to about an extra half percent for Cloud.

Looking at the registered user results both Mario/Samus matches suggests the result would have been pretty similar both times and I had to estimate the total number of rallied votes by subtracting enough votes from Samus so the anonymous user result is identical in both matches. This results in an estimate of 775 rallied votes.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
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Topic^King of the Mountain^ - Save My Princess - Day 14
LusterSoldier
12/10/18 9:57:01 PM
#21
Camilla
Peach
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
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TopicCharacter Battle X Oracle Challenge - Winners Final + Losers Round 5
LusterSoldier
12/10/18 9:47:35 PM
#67
Mario - 52.65%
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
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TopicCharacter Battle X Battle Challenge [Round 3 and on Picks]
LusterSoldier
12/10/18 9:45:40 PM
#228
Mario
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
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TopicThe Show EP 9 - Tifa Shocks Seph, GotY Announcement, Time to Retire Link? w/ KP
LusterSoldier
12/10/18 9:35:56 PM
#55
@KamikazePotato

In the post above this one, I posted an analysis of the Mario/Samus rematch. My conclusion is that the result of the first match is more accurate and wouldn't have changed much in a rematch. I would recommend using the first match in any adjusted X-Stats you plan on doing.

The Cloud/Crono rematch is also somewhat tainted by the rally too. Going off the anonymous user results in the Cloud/Crono rematch suggests Cloud was probably a huge favorite among the rallied votes. I could see the rally inflating Cloud's percentage by about half a percent. It makes sense that the Samus rally would help Cloud more than Crono since Cloud is more recognizable due to being in Smash.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
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TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1320
LusterSoldier
12/10/18 8:44:09 PM
#320
Legends and Loser Bracket, Round 3 and later

Cloud Strife vs. Crono
Registered Vote Result:
Cloud Strife - 5002 (56.63%)
Crono - 3831 (43.37%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Cloud Strife - 6559 (59.64%)
Crono - 4438 (40.36%)

Mario vs. Samus Aran
Registered Vote Result:
Mario - 4651 (52.64%)
Samus Aran - 4184 (47.36%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Mario - 5041 (45.84%)
Samus Aran - 5956 (54.16%)

Compared to the first Cloud/Crono match, Cloud actually did worse with registered users in the rematch - 57.24% in the first match, 56.63% in the rematch. The biggest difference between the 2 matches were the anonymous user results. Cloud got 55.81% in the first match, and then jumps all the way up to 59.64% in the rematch. That's a pretty sharp increase in the anonymous user results, and suggests that anonymous users are far more sensitive to the pic factor. The first Cloud/Crono match had sprites and maybe the anonymous users were less likely to recognize a Cloud sprite picture compared to registered users. There's always a chance that the Samus rally had some effect on the anonymous user results of this match.

The Mario/Samus rematch is only the third match this contest where the registered user bonus actually changed the result of the match. Samus would have won by 448 votes if we went strictly by the raw votes, but Mario won by 467 votes with the registered users. This means Mario ends up winning by 19 votes.

The registered/anonymous user split for the Mario/Samus rematch is one of the largest we've seen in this contest. Mario did almost 7% better with registered users compared to anonymous users. In the first Mario/Samus match, the difference was only about 3% between registered/anonymous users. This makes me think that the Samus rally on the Metroid subreddit actually had a noticeable impact on the match.

Extra info and past results - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1O1QuDMeK4VhHOia7bdBgtVp_F3kRTnGkkjtR0zRyudw/pub
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
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TopicThe Show EP 9 - Tifa Shocks Seph, GotY Announcement, Time to Retire Link? w/ KP
LusterSoldier
12/10/18 8:35:38 PM
#54
The Mario/Samus rematch is only the third match this contest where the registered user bonus actually changed the result of the match. Samus would have won by 448 votes if we went strictly by the raw votes, but Mario won by 467 votes with the registered users. This means Mario ends up winning by 19 votes.

This match is one of the largest splits between registered/anonymous users so far. Mario did almost 7% better with registered users compared to anonymous users. In the first Mario/Samus match, the difference was only about 3% between registered/anonymous users. This makes me think that the Samus rally on the Metroid subreddit actually had a noticeable impact on the match.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
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TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1320
LusterSoldier
12/10/18 8:15:52 PM
#306
Zelda did do better with anonymous users against Snake, but we now know there were hentai rallies for Zelda. Here were the registered/anonymous splits for all of Zelda's matches:

Zelda/Ezio - 77.27% / 71.75%
The Boss/Zelda - 71.06% / 70.05%
Squall/Zelda - 64.16% / 61.86%
Zelda/Aerith - 63.00% / 60.75%
Snake/Zelda - 49.64% / 51.56%
Zelda/Sonic - 56.33% / 56.66%
Zelda/Mario - 48.82% / 54.59%

Zelda/Mario featured even more hentai rallies, so Zelda looks lot better with anonymous users (and outright loses to Mario with registered users).
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
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TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1320
LusterSoldier
12/10/18 8:08:22 PM
#301
As of 8:00 PM EST tonight:

Link has 55.27% with registered users and 64.14% with anonymous users. That's pretty damning evidence of a Zelda bandwagon, as you would expect anonymous users to be far less informed on contest developments such as Zelda's upset of Mario, so they wouldn't be likely to join in on any bandwagon.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
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TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1320
LusterSoldier
12/10/18 7:59:44 PM
#296
charmander6000 posted...
Polls typically started up to 20 minutes early unless the previous match was close in which case the match went to midnight, anyone keeping an eye on the contest would have known that.


Was there a reason for the polls sometimes starting early back in 2003? Maybe CJayC didn't have a way to automate the process of having the polls go up at the same time everyday, so he did them manually.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
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TopicCharacter Battle X Contest Analysis Crew Guest Sign-ups
LusterSoldier
12/10/18 7:57:35 PM
#37
One new match is up for grabs.

Cloud Strife vs. Mario -
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Topic* Character Battle X First Vote Championship! *
LusterSoldier
12/10/18 7:10:57 PM
#165
3rd vote, 1st for Zelda
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
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TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1320
LusterSoldier
12/10/18 7:10:22 PM
#183
Zelda still leading Link on the second update of this match. Zelda still has a 5 vote lead.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
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TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1320
LusterSoldier
12/10/18 7:02:45 PM
#133
CaptainOfCrush posted...
the greasy fuck CHEATED AGAIN

omg I love these contests


I think the last time anything related to Mario activated its clutch was back in 2009 with Mario 3 out-clutching Zelda 1 for second place in the 2009 Games Contest.

But it's interesting to see that Mario still hasn't lost his clutch ability in Character Battles.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
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TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1320
LusterSoldier
12/10/18 7:00:30 PM
#98
Mario wins by 19 votes.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
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TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1320
LusterSoldier
12/10/18 6:48:23 PM
#33
Moonroof posted...
Mario v. Cloud is less entertaining than Samus v. Cloud.


Mario/Cloud would be a closer match than Samus/Cloud if there's the assumption that Samus is indirectly stronger than Mario.

Also, we haven't had a 1v1 Mario/Cloud match since 2002.
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TopicBABE BRAWL: Amouranth (c) vs. Jessica Kingham - TIEBREAKER (NOMINATE!)
LusterSoldier
12/10/18 8:09:14 AM
#4
Amouranth
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TopicCharacter Battle X Oracle Challenge - Winners Final + Losers Round 5
LusterSoldier
12/10/18 7:15:33 AM
#27
Link - 64.92%
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