Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1320

(+) Yeah! (+)

LusterSoldier posted...

As of 8:00 PM EST tonight:

Link has 55.27% with registered users and 64.14% with anonymous users. That's pretty damning evidence of a Zelda bandwagon, as you would expect anonymous users to be far less informed on contest developments such as Zelda's upset of Mario, so they wouldn't be likely to join in on any bandwagon.

What were the registered vs anonymous user splits for the rest of Zelda's Legend bracket matches? Off memory, didn't she do better with anonymous users against Snake?
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A lot of the 'anonymous' users aren't as anonymous as the term implies. Otherwise we wouldn't get percentage-perfect results on reruns like Crono/Bowser. There's just a lot of lurkers on the site who don't necessarily register, but still visit often.
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FinalFantasyVll posted...

Cloud better fucking kill this c***, and if you voted or rooted for this vote stuffing asshole fuck you!

Samus cheated in 02 as well though, for what it's worth.

It's just Mario is now up to DOUBLE DIGIT cheats.
Get fucked XIII and CTES and KP specifically

Man, I thought rooted for your favorites was what it was all about
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Zelda did do better with anonymous users against Snake, but we now know there were hentai rallies for Zelda. Here were the registered/anonymous splits for all of Zelda's matches:

Zelda/Ezio - 77.27% / 71.75%
The Boss/Zelda - 71.06% / 70.05%
Squall/Zelda - 64.16% / 61.86%
Zelda/Aerith - 63.00% / 60.75%
Snake/Zelda - 49.64% / 51.56%
Zelda/Sonic - 56.33% / 56.66%
Zelda/Mario - 48.82% / 54.59%

Zelda/Mario featured even more hentai rallies, so Zelda looks lot better with anonymous users (and outright loses to Mario with registered users).
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This KP melty is sad. How can you be upset that Mario won, when Samus needed hentai rallies to even close the gap to the point where it was close?
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Link is consistently hitting the mid-60s now for updates. We'll probably see a bunch of 70% updates later.
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UltimaterializerX posted...

I legit had all 15 of my classmates vote for Mario. Plus the one I just made

THAT felt good. And go get that guru title, XIII!!!!

Just caught this, is Ulti, the 36 year old manchild, still in school?
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BlAcK TuRtLe posted...

This KP melty is sad. How can you be upset that Mario won, when Samus needed hentai rallies to even close the gap to the point where it was close?

Hentai is awesome, Mario is for casual gamers.
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I think we can safely say Zelda > Ganondorf LOL
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I feel like Ulti has either claimed to be in school or be working or whatnot for years. I know these contests have a way of making you forget that so many years have passed, but getting classmates to vote in class doesn't seem like a terribly realistic scenario anymore.
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CaptainOfCrush posted...

I think we can safely say Zelda > Ganondorf LOL

Well, considering they have a common opponent now, hahaha.
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CaptainOfCrush posted...

I think we can safely say Zelda > Ganondorf LOL

That has been the case since she spanked Squall. That's why I don't understand these 'bandwagon' claims. Her numbers have been very consistant all contest (Mario and Snake hentai rallies notwithstanding)
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Zelda>Ganondorf was confirmed the moment she mushed Squall into a fine paste. Now she's just unnecessarily making him look bad.
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Zelda has lost 12.29% from the freeze, in an hour and a half. L-Block started off slightly higher than Zelda, and at this time had lost 11.50% from the freeze.

Okay. I said a few hours ago that bandwagons gave a telltale trend shift, and this is exactly what we see here. Bandwagon trends. This is apparently quite a big bandwagon, at least today.
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So now that the excitement has died down, I took a look at the stats posted so far, the only thing that seems really out of left field is everything behind Tifa/Sephiroth. What can we do there? Even if we use Mario/Seph and Tifa/Samus, that puts them at nearly the same level which still doesn't make sense to me, judging off of Ryu who has no reason to have dropped
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link is coming to town... over 58% now wow
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What's the largest percent loss from the freeze to the final result ever? I feel like this match will probably take that record.
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Legends and Loser Bracket, Round 3 and later

Cloud Strife vs. Crono
Registered Vote Result:
Cloud Strife - 5002 (56.63%)
Crono - 3831 (43.37%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Cloud Strife - 6559 (59.64%)
Crono - 4438 (40.36%)

Mario vs. Samus Aran
Registered Vote Result:
Mario - 4651 (52.64%)
Samus Aran - 4184 (47.36%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Mario - 5041 (45.84%)
Samus Aran - 5956 (54.16%)

Compared to the first Cloud/Crono match, Cloud actually did worse with registered users in the rematch - 57.24% in the first match, 56.63% in the rematch. The biggest difference between the 2 matches were the anonymous user results. Cloud got 55.81% in the first match, and then jumps all the way up to 59.64% in the rematch. That's a pretty sharp increase in the anonymous user results, and suggests that anonymous users are far more sensitive to the pic factor. The first Cloud/Crono match had sprites and maybe the anonymous users were less likely to recognize a Cloud sprite picture compared to registered users. There's always a chance that the Samus rally had some effect on the anonymous user results of this match.

The Mario/Samus rematch is only the third match this contest where the registered user bonus actually changed the result of the match. Samus would have won by 448 votes if we went strictly by the raw votes, but Mario won by 467 votes with the registered users. This means Mario ends up winning by 19 votes.

The registered/anonymous user split for the Mario/Samus rematch is one of the largest we've seen in this contest. Mario did almost 7% better with registered users compared to anonymous users. In the first Mario/Samus match, the difference was only about 3% between registered/anonymous users. This makes me think that the Samus rally on the Metroid subreddit actually had a noticeable impact on the match.

Extra info and past results - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1O1QuDMeK4VhHOia7bdBgtVp_F3kRTnGkkjtR0zRyudw/pub
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Link over 59% now. Since this match has followed L-Block trends pretty closely so far, I did a projection based on that match, which states that Link is projected to win with....68.99%.
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I am rooting for Mario to cheat a win against Cloud.

Cheating is awesome, Mario is proof.
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JJH777 posted...

What's the largest percent loss from the freeze to the final result ever? I feel like this match will probably take that record.

21.68% from L-Block in the 2007 final.
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Sephiroth was always way too strong for a villain. He's much closer to his game/series protagonist in strength than any other villain apart from maybe Kefka. It kinda makes sense that he'd continually drop over the years, as a villain gains popularity from the cool stuff they do in a game, and that cool stuff is bound to be forgotten over time. Heroes lose popularity less quickly.
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WarThaNemesis2 posted...

Samus is my favorite non-FFIV character, and this was pretty much her only chance to ever beat Mario.

I guess I'm left hoping these contests are over with after this, because she's never getting this shot again.

Just feel burned out.

Disagree completely. Samus proved that she can hang with Mario. Next time they meet, I'm picking Samus.
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red sox 777 posted...

Link over 59% now. Since this match has followed L-Block trends pretty closely so far, I did a projection based on that match, which states that Link is projected to win with....68.99%.

Now Im rooting for Link to 69 Zelda.
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If Nintendo continues to shift their marketing focus away from Mario and if Prime 4 actually releases to acclaim, I'm easily taking Samus next time.
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red sox 777 posted...

I probably posted it in one of the stats topics years ago but I did do a trendline analysis for Mario/Crono 2003 along the lines of what Lopen did for the Draven matches, and that's where the 10,000 number is coming from. The match pulled in about 10,000 more votes in the last 3-4 hours than it would have based on normal 2003 vote intake trends, and the reason people didn't notice it was so big at the time was that 40% of the extra votes went to Crono.

Granted, the male/female poll being responsible is not proven. But it does fit the data pretty well, and I don't know how else you could have rallied that many votes in 2003, especially for Crono. Another alternative is both sides were stuffing hard, and Mario stuffed more.

Also, the male/female poll was during Mario/Cloud, not Mario/Crono. There is zero way it had an impact on Mario/Crono, because it didn't happen during that match.
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UltimaterializerX posted...

getting married, having children, and making mortgage payments, not getting legitimately mad because Mario beat Samus in a poll.

Getting legitimately mad that Mario beat Samus in a poll seems like the least depressing thing of these options tbh
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CaptainOfCrush posted...

If Nintendo continues to shift their marketing focus away from Mario and if Prime 4 actually releases to acclaim, I'm easily taking Samus next time.

Thats the thing, it was this close after Mario got his big game of the gen last year, and Samus still has hers that could give her franchise a proper resurrection and a huge boost.

If we can get another character contest a couple years from now she might even do the impossible and break 40% on Link.
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I already had the "how the heck are you still in school" conversation with Ulti like 20 stats topics ago.
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Lopen posted...

UltimaterializerX posted...

getting married, having children, and making mortgage payments, not getting legitimately mad because Mario beat Samus in a poll.

Getting legitimately mad that Mario beat Samus in a poll seems like the least depressing thing of these options tbh

I dont know which experience was worse, watching Samus lose or watching my horrible child be born.
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BlAcK TuRtLe posted...

So now that the excitement has died down, I took a look at the stats posted so far, the only thing that seems really out of left field is everything behind Tifa/Sephiroth. What can we do there? Even if we use Mario/Seph and Tifa/Samus, that puts them at nearly the same level which still doesn't make sense to me, judging off of Ryu who has no reason to have dropped

Maybe Ryu is just that weak. He got around the same against Sephiroth as Amaterasu which suggested Sephiroth would rank at around Luigi strength which is sort of what we saw. It also correlates with MMX's performance against Ryu before the Draven rally began (I assume he would have lost a couple of percent points due to the European vote)
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CaptainOfCrush posted...

If Nintendo continues to shift their marketing focus away from Mario and if Prime 4 actually releases to acclaim, I'm easily taking Samus next time.

Samus lost by 700 the first time and then by 15 odd votes the next. Illl take samus next week.
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You can be getting your life set without getting married, having children, or making mortgage payments. Those sound depressing.

Though I do enjoy the lecture from the guy still in school in his 30s about moving on with life.
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Getting mad that Mario beat Samus in a poll might happen because someone is comfortable with other stuff in life.

But personally, I don't think I've ever gotten mad at other people because my character lost in one of these. Sad and disappointed and upset, absolutely. Crono losing to Sonic and Vincent and Missingno was a punch to the gut, each time. But I don't see why that should translate into anger at their supporters?
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Not_Wylvane posted...

I am rooting for Mario to cheat a win against Cloud.

Cheating is awesome, Mario is proof.

At this point. Ill be fine wih Mario winning if he beats Zelda.

I want to see link smash marios face in.
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If I had the money to do it, I'd stay in academia forever, be it as a student, educator, or whatever. Colleges are full of life, youth, and optimism; if money was no object, why wouldn't you stay?
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If you take out Sephiroth/Ryu, a lot of results line of very well. Might have just to more or less disregard that result when making stats.
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CaptainOfCrush posted...

If I had the money to do it, I'd stay in academia forever, be it as a student, educator, or whatever. Colleges are full of life, youth, and optimism; if money was no object, why wouldn't you stay?

When I was in college it was the people/atmosphere rather than the learning that was fun.

Ulti, I would damn well hope you can show your fellow students the ropes if you've been doing various forms of veterinary schooling for a decade. You've probably taken several variants on the theme by this point.

It's like you've got the Harry Potter time turner to take more classes except it's not actually slowing time down for you.

KamikazePotato posted...

If you take out Sephiroth/Ryu, a lot of results line of very well. Might have just to more or less disregard that result when making stats.

How does Vincent/KOS-MOS hold up?
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CaptainOfCrush posted...

If I had the money to do it, I'd stay in academia forever, be it as a student, educator, or whatever. Colleges are full of life, youth, and optimism; if money was no object, why wouldn't you stay?

I don't disagree. I'm just saying staying in academia till you're in your 30s to me is more of a red flag for a lack of life advancement than not being married, having children, or making mortgage payments.
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ShatteredElysium posted...

When I was in college it was the people/atmosphere rather than the learning that was fun.

True, but you can continue to soak those up while taking joke classes if you're rich. If I had a couple mill tomorrow, first thing I'm doing is enrolling in that outdoor survival class I never brought myself to spend money on in grad school.
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CaptainOfCrush posted...

ShatteredElysium posted...

When I was in college it was the people/atmosphere rather than the learning that was fun.

True, but you can continue to soak those up while taking joke classes if you're rich. If I had a couple mill tomorrow, first thing I'm doing is enrolling in that outdoor survival class I never brought myself to spend money on in grad school.

When I was at Ohio State Jim Tressel taught a class, like one hour a week. If I wasn't swamped by Actual Shit I Needed To Get Done I'd have taken it, and in hindsight I wish I had anyways.
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All our lives are failures. Mario beating Samus has made me realize that life is meaningless, so we should all embrace death and loss, just as Samus had when she lost to Mario in a video game character popularity poll.

May our meaningless deaths be swift and merciful.
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The only true measure of a successful life is whether you have rallied for video game characters in hentai subreddits imho.
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