Current Events > I genuinely don't think this shooting will help Trump in November

(+) Yeah! (+)

After dooming for an hour or two, I've had a chance to think a little. I expect it'll give him a noticeable bump for a month or two. But he's still Trump and still eminently hateable. This is definitely not going to make core Democrats or people who hated Trump before the shooting stay home. It's not going to make core Republicans vote for him more than they already were going to (I could be wrong on this, it could give some fake never Trumpers an excuse to vote for him).

The question is how it affects independents, moderates, centrists, and low info voters then. This won't get him any of the ones that are aligned with Dems. It'll at best activate people who were already fundamentally Trumpy because this doesn't change his policies or personality at all and you were likely already in his camp if you think this confirms that "the left/deep state" are trying to stop him at any cost.

When 3000 events we can't fathom happen between now and November, and people default back to where their priors point them, I don't think this'll be one of the top 5 things on people's minds when they're casting votes. Or deciding whether to vote or not.

I'll wait on the polling.

Problem is Trump's VP pick is revealed in 2 days and might mess with the numbers. I definitely predict a polling drop if he picks blatantly fascist JD Vance.

I think it will increase turnout for both sides.

I could definitely see the right get more violent in general in response which will push away potential voters in the middle as they see how unhinged the base is.

I don't see this helping nor hurting really.

Any grain he might see could very well be offset by the idea that the political polarization and danger is largely stoked by him, causing some to once again realize his exestential danger to democracy.

I think a lot will, unfortunately, ultimately come down to how the media plays this. I could see it having an impact if they are still talking about it close to the election and showing the pictures of Donnie looking defiant while still talking about Biden old, for instance.

I expect his big mouth to ruin any sympathy he might get from this by well.. being himself

But i also think the Media is going to use this as an excuse to continue its softballing of him over Project 2025 and the fact that he was involved with Epstein

All it's going to do is give the right "justification" to try and kill Biden now.

It's gonna depend on what happens next.

This is going to aggressively energize his whole base, and if Biden doesn't respond with... something to counter that it'll basically just offer the presidency to Biden. If this starts actively painting Trump more sympathetically, a lot of people may be more inclined to vote Trump.

If Biden and the Dems decides to push/keep pushing the Project 2025/literally reported evidence of Trump being a pedo or so on, they can keep the pressure on Trump and this won't end up helping him, but there hasn't been a ton of that to begin with.

I bet he gets charged with more crimes before November and he can't keep getting sympathetic judges

Turtlemayor333 posted...

I bet he gets charged with more crimes before November and he can't keep getting sympathetic judges

Unfortunately it doesn't seem like any of his other trials will conclude prior to the election.

Trump is a criminal rapist conman. I have to believe people have already decided who they want

One thing this event did was remove "Biden old" from the primary focus of the news cycle. If "Biden old" fades into a known quantity instead of being hot gossip then that's good for Biden. While Trump is going to try to milk this, the fact is at the RNC he will also have to announce his VP, which will divert media attention from this.

I think it also hinges on women voters turning out in massive numbers for Democrats by being reminded of the loss of Roe v. Wade and the existence of Project 2025. If there's one group that Trump shouldn't have pissed off, it would have to be the wine moms.

Doe posted...

One thing this event did was remove "Biden old" from the primary focus of the news cycle. If "Biden old" fades into a known quantity instead of being hot gossip then that's good for Biden. While Trump is going to try to milk this, the fact is at the RNC he will also have to announce his VP, which will divert media attention from this.

If Trump ends up picking a candidate who's as zany as he is, that's also going to turn off more moderate voters.

I think it depends largely on how Republicans react to it.

And I fully expect them to dial up the violent rhetoric and (hopefully) turn off any sane voters.

There are rumors (keyword rumors) that the shooter is an alt-righter. If that is true it may even hurt Trump's chances.

If it's true that the shooter was wearing an alt-right Youtuber shirt, and therefore may have been a disgruntled alt-righter, the Trump team may try to move on from this very quickly.

I think if you believe that then you don't understand the average person or people in swing states. It isn't so much that it happened as it took place while Biden is looking frail.

People are easily moved by bravado, particularly in harrowing situations. The next months will be layers of propaganda pushing that fist bump image while hitting at Biden's frailness.

It will make a difference. Enough of one for him to win? Remains to be seen.

StealThisSheen posted...

If it's true that the shooter was wearing an alt-right Youtuber shirt, and therefore may have been a disgruntled alt-righter, the Trump team may try to move on from this very quickly.

They'll just say it was a left winger in disguise, which is already the line of much of the right for January 6th. "It was ANTIFA and Feds framing them"

Doe posted...

They'll just say it was a left winger in disguise, which is already the line of much of the right for January 6th. "It was ANTIFA and Feds framing them"

Yeah, but the only people that will work on are people who were... Already gonna vote for Trump, so it doesn't move the needle. At that point, it'd be damage control.

Doe posted...

One thing this event did was remove "Biden old" from the primary focus of the news cycle. If "Biden old" fades into a known quantity instead of being hot gossip then that's good for Biden. While Trump is going to try to milk this, the fact is at the RNC he will also have to announce his VP, which will divert media attention from this.

I mean the juxtaposition between how biden looks and presents with trump fist bumping after the shooting is pretty crazy. It still plays right into the Biden is old and frail narrative.

theAteam posted...

I could definitely see the right get more violent in general in response which will push away potential voters in the middle as they see how unhinged the base is.

This, I think, is a much more realistic threat than the shooting helping his reelection. Stay safe out there, especially people living in red areas.

Yeah, this really shouldn't change anyone's views on him or his policies. The only people I could see this swinging are a handful of conspiracy theorists and elderlys who weren't gonna vote but will now get convinced that liberty is under attack. Everyone else has already made up their minds and he won't be getting any sympathy votes. He isn't running for prom king.

TheShadowViper posted...

I think if you believe that then you don't understand the average person or people in swing states. It isn't so much that it happened as it took place while Biden is looking frail.

People are easily moved by bravado, particularly in harrowing situations. The next months will be layers of propaganda pushing that fist bump image while hitting at Biden's frailness.

It will make a difference. Enough of one for him to win? Remains to be seen.

Maybe. But Biden probably won't be the focus going forward. It'll be the investigation, the Secret Service's potential incompetence, Trump's reaction if he blames it on Biden/the left, then attention will shift to the RNC, the VP, etc etc etc. Efforts to publicize Project 2025 and focus on Roe v. Wade will ramp up as well. We don't know how it'll all shake out. But I think this'll be just one of countless things in the mix by November and that the vast majority of people either consciously or unconsciously know whether they're voting and who they're voting for already.

The last election had huge turnout and was during a series of cascading crises. I think that's probably around the ceiling for this election and that indicates a close election, not one that's in the bag for Trump.

legendary_zell posted...

Maybe. But Biden probably won't be the focus going forward. It'll be the investigation, the Secret Service's potential incompetence, Trump's reaction if he blames it on Biden/the left, then attention will shift to the RNC, the VP, etc etc etc. Efforts to publicize Project 2025 and focus on Roe v. Wade will ramp up as well. We don't know how it'll all shake out. But I think this'll be just one of countless things in the mix by November and that the vast majority of people either consciously or unconsciously know whether they're voting and who they're voting for already.

The last election had huge turnout and was during a series of cascading crises. I think that's probably around the ceiling for this election and that indicates a close election, not one that's in the bag for Trump.

And as always, high voter turnout favors Democrats

It will energize him and his base.

True that there is still 4 months to go so this doesn't mean victory. But surviving such an attempt is a boon especially when you constantly say how you are persecuted and mistreated and your supporters say the same.
The greater fear is that Biden stops talking about how dangerous Trump is for USA because he fears such talk would be seen as inciting violence.

I kind of agree. If this was closer to the election, I think it would. It will be just another rambling added to Trump's big list of shit we get tired of hearing about by election time.

We have overestimated the effect of every almost single thing positive or negative thing that's happened to either candidate since 2020. I don't think this'll be different. Events have accelerated in pace since 2015. As far as we can tell, the only things that have actually had an effect on this race are Biden's age and the Afghanistan withdrawal. We'll have to see if this is like those. I doubt it.

lilORANG posted...

Trump is a criminal rapist conman. I have to believe people have already decided who they want

You severely overestimate the intelligence of the average American

I don't think it will help directly, but the photos of him pumping his fist will probably generate another round of donations for him to pour into Pennsylvania like he has been doing.

PA is the most important state, arguably, this time through. Currently, Trump has the projected lead in it, which is why he has spent so much of his money on it and Georgia since he could still win everything with just those two, therefore, not needing Michigan or Wisconsin.

So, in that regard, I do think it helps him indirectly through funding his war chest.

-Ghetsis- posted...

You severely overestimate the intelligence of the average American

Yeah but idc about the average American. Just the average voter in America and anyone who cares enough to vote has picked their side already

legendary_zell posted...

The last election had huge turnout and was during a series of cascading crises.

Crisis boosts turnout. Like during the 2008 recession.

This is very unlikely to be a high turnout election. Public interest in 2024 polls below that of for Hillary vs. Trump in 2016.

PiOverlord posted...

I don't think it will help directly, but the photos of him pumping his fist will probably generate another round of donations for him to pour into Pennsylvania like he has been doing.

PA is the most important state, arguably, this time through. Currently, Trump has the projected lead in it, which is why he has spent so much of his money on it and Georgia since he could still win everything with just those two, therefore, not needing Michigan or Wisconsin.

So, in that regard, I do think it helps him indirectly through funding his war chest.

Knowing him, he'll probably spend most of that money on lawsuits.

Diceheist posted...

Crisis boosts turnout. Like during the 2008 recession.

This is very unlikely to be a high turnout election. Public interest in 2024 polls below that of for Hillary vs. Trump in 2016.

That could also be good for Biden. People who pay attention and vote are much more likely to vote Biden. Biden is only likely to lose through a combination of low turnout Dem turnout and "throw the bums out" from an unusually high number of new voters.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/29/politics/turnout-2024-election-analysis/index.html

I think it really depends on how the media covers this. His base is absolutely going to be in overdrive mode, but well have to wait and see how undecided voters view this.

I unfortunately think its going to help fuel Trumps Theyre out to get me narrative a lot

Heineken14 posted...

I think a lot will, unfortunately, ultimately come down to how the media plays this. I could see it having an impact if they are still talking about it close to the election and showing the pictures of Donnie looking defiant while still talking about Biden old, for instance.

I think people are just kind of tired of our shit media and recognize that it isn't independent and that they have a symbiotic relationship with Trump. Like, even someone who doesn't like Biden probably recognizes that having 20 articles on him being old is excessive by now and not really a front page story, so they are thinking, well, why?

[LFAQs-redacted-quote]

Im just quite sure that picture of a bloodied trump with his fist in the air is going to be plastered on every conservative talk show until November

I hope it blows over, im just not super convinced it will atm

I don't even get why Hinckley shooting Reagan because Hinckley saw Taxi Driver and wanted to impress... Jodi Foster even help Reagan win.

I guess he was already ahead of Mondale, but why did his Polling numbers jump by 10%?

legendary_zell posted...

That could also be good for Biden. People who pay attention and vote are much more likely to vote Biden. Biden is only likely to lose through a combination of low turnout Dem turnout and "throw the bums out" from an unusually high number of new voters.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/29/politics/turnout-2024-election-analysis/index.html

Thing is while turnout is likely to be low it's unlikely to drop to midterm levels. 2016 still got 61.4% of the voting age population ( https://www.census.gov/newsroom/blogs/random-samplings/2017/05/voting_in_america.html). 2022 only got 46% ( https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2023/07/12/voter-turnout-2018-2022/ ).

I would wager that Trump is very much like Obama in that a lot of his supporters simply do not vote in midterms, and only show up when he specifically is on the ballot. And as seen with Obama while his party got crushed in the 2010 midterms the Obama-only voters saved the day in 2012.

So there is an alignment shift but it's not necessarily a good one. I would think it's preferable to get pummeled in the midterms but win the presidential races.

Reagan was actually likeable, the incumbent, and made significant gun legislation after he was shot.

Trump has none of these going for him.

I can't imagine there's too many people who are ambivalent on Trump, but will say, "Well, somebody shot at him, so I guess I'll vote for him." I think a great deal will depend on what we learn about the shooter and his motives - if it turns out he's your garden-variety crackpot, I doubt the shooting will have much of an effect; if he's an ardent leftist with violent tendencies, I could see that playing into the conservative narrative that progressives are the "real" dangerous ones.

Honestly, I think the bump for the Republicans would have been much bigger if Trump had actually been killed, because that would have made him a martyr and cleared the way for someone who acts like Trump, but without the baggage Trump brings with him.

legendary_zell posted...

That could also be good for Biden. People who pay attention and vote are much more likely to vote Biden. Biden is only likely to lose through a combination of low turnout Dem turnout and "throw the bums out" from an unusually high number of new voters.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/29/politics/turnout-2024-election-analysis/index.html

Low voter turnout is bad for democrats.

The media is reporting the shooter was a Republican, so yeah, I'd expect them to actually try and move on from this very quickly, since they stand to lose more from the potential bad rhetoric there than they'd gain from trying to make Trump look like a hero to the base who was already voting him, regardless.

It's going to be a repeat of Hilary vs Trump. We already have people saying they're not voting, which is only harmful for Biden, since Trump's base will vote for him no matter what.

legendary_zell posted...

After dooming for an hour or two, I've had a chance to think a little. I expect it'll give him a noticeable bump for a month or two. But he's still Trump and still eminently hateable. This is definitely not going to make core Democrats or people who hated Trump before the shooting stay home. It's not going to make core Republicans vote for him more than they already were going to (I could be wrong on this, it could give some fake never Trumpers an excuse to vote for him).

The question is how it affects independents, moderates, centrists, and low info voters then. This won't get him any of the ones that are aligned with Dems. It'll at best activate people who were already fundamentally Trumpy because this doesn't change his policies or personality at all and you were likely already in his camp if you think this confirms that "the left/deep state" are trying to stop him at any cost.

When 3000 events we can't fathom happen between now and November, and people default back to where their priors point them, I don't think this'll be one of the top 5 things on people's minds when they're casting votes. Or deciding whether to vote or not.

He also will overplay it so much it starts to ring hollow to anyone that is not a die hard that would vote for Trump no matter what. Trump does not have tact the dude does plenty of shit that shoots himself in the foot.

90% chance he makes another NFT about this event.