Current Events > BRAINTEASER: Do you take boxes A and B, or only box B?

(+) Yeah! (+)

Yeahtheres no reason not go pick both boxes. Nothing in this scenario says that the alien will remove money after the choice.

option 1) he thinks I pick both boxes, so he leaves 1k
option 2) he thinks I pick b, so he leaves 1 mil and 1k

the money is in their either way. Take both boxes. Either hes right and I get 1k, or hes wrong and I get 1m plus 1k.

the only reason to pick box b alone is if the money vanishes if you pick both. Which nothing in this says so.

If the being predicts I take B, then I either get a million or a million and a thousand.

If the being predicts I take A and B, then I get a thousand or zero.

I also just think most people would say "hey a million!" which would make the former scenario more likely but even if not, it seems a bit like Pascal's Wager.

So take both.

Seems deceptively simple?

UnholyMudcrab posted...

Thousand-dollar bills don't exist. Why would I take a box with clearly fake money?

Actually, there are roughly 165,000 $1,000 bills. It's just that the US Mint hasn't printed any since 1945 (and haven't been issued since 1969).

Here I'll flip it around.

If you take both boxes you're guaranteed to get only 1000 unless the alien lost its 0.1% chance and guessed you'd only take B.

If you take only B then you're guaranteed 1mil unless you lost the 0.1% chance and the alien guessed you'd take both.

Would you rather have a 0.1% chance to get nothing, or a 99.9% chance to get exactly 1000 dollars.

A grand isn't life changing, helpful but whatever. B for me. Either I get to be the gnawing failure event that he randomly remembers and cringes about after his bragging, or I get a mil. Win/win.

im pretty sure this hole thing is a mentalist trick and its impossible to get the million

Assume he predicts accurately every time. You don't get $1000, you lose $999,000.

jumi posted...

Assume he predicts accurately every time. You don't get $1000, you lose $999,000.

A lot of this has to do with wondering what conclusions others would come to. Sounds a bit like tragedy of the commons where it seems like there's a chance to believe you're thinking differently but you could wash out.

UnholyMudcrab posted...

Thousand-dollar bills don't exist. Why would I take a box with clearly fake money?

They exist in Canada. They stopped being issued in 2000, but they still sometimes circulate.

The alien is a planet and the boxes are a room outside.

So it's either $1,000 or $1,000,000. Choose the million, duh!

I take the $1000, because a comparatively small win is better than a total loss.

If he knows with a certainty what youll pick, then it doesnt matter, you dont really have a choice. Both options are equal.

So, all that matters is the alien's "prediction"?
If he predicts you take both and you do, you get $1000
If he predicts you take both and you take B, you get nothing
If he predicts you take B and you do, you get $1M
If he predicts you take B and you take both, you get $1M + $1000

Logically there's no reason not to take A and B b/c he could've just put nothing in B and the whole "prediction" thing is bull shit, you don't know. It's not like if you take B only you get the million if it wasn't in there, you just look like a fool.
The only reason to take B only is reverse psychology, "it expects me to be rational and choose both, so I'll do the opposite!" But it could counter your counter, and so on...

Should just take the $1000 and move on. This isn't the Monty Hall problem where your choice (and changing it) actually has a mathematical difference in the probability. Your choice means nothing, the alien already decided what's in B before it even talked to you.

FunWithAFryPan posted...

If he knows with a certainty what youll pick, then it doesnt matter, you dont really have a choice. Both options are equal.

One choice you get nothing, win or lose. One choice, you get $1000, win or lose. The latter is objectively better and again the only reason not to choose it is attempting reverse-psychology on a supposedly omniscient being.

Take only B.

It's either got a milly or it doesn't, even if it doesn't, well, proving a "highly superior being" wrong is worth more than $1000 anyway.

UnholyMudcrab posted...

Thousand-dollar bills don't exist. Why would I take a box with clearly fake money?

$1000s were printed until 1969 with Grover Cleveland on them, and some time earlier had been printed with Alexander Hamilton. Any that exist are still legal tender (though they may be worth more as collector's items than as currency).

BuzzKilljoy posted...

If everybody asked this question really understood it they would always choose box B and get the million.

I would definitely choose box b yeah.

That box has a million bucks in it, and if he's almost always right I'll take those odds that he knows I know that.

Out of all gametheory paradoxa(?), I think I dislike this most.

It's silly.

Your action is predetermined, and changes the payout table before the action is even done.

At the same time, you are asked to act as if the predetermined choice of yours can be changed upon your choice.

The theory says that it's possible to trick him, because the money is already in B, but the scenario says that he can predict the future accuratly.

This is not about bluffing, gambling or putting RNG in it anymore. As soon as you think B is the better option, it's B, as soon as you think about the risk if he guesses wrong, it's A+B.

UnholyMudcrab posted...

Thousand-dollar bills don't exist. Why would I take a box with clearly fake money?

This was also my thinking. Naturally, I'm taking both boxes in hopes that the mil is real, otherwise, there was nothing to gain here in the first place.

jumi posted...

Assume he predicts accurately every time. You don't get $1000, you lose $999,000.

no. Just because I didnt win 1m doesnt mean I lost 1m. My bank account is still higher after getting 1k.

dont count chips you dont have yet.

He wouldn't predict humans skipping guaranteed money, box B is never going to have the million in it. smh

if B box seem empty, i'd take the other box with me

I'm thinking of the "near-perfect prediction" part to mean the alien knows the future with certainty somehow. In that scenario the only way to get the million is to choose box B but you will always get the million if you choose box B.

Maybe that's too big of an assumption for the ambiguity of the text prompt, but fuck it. Go B or go home

BuzzKilljoy posted...

I'm thinking of the "near-perfect prediction" part to mean the alien knows the future with certainty somehow. In that scenario the only way to get the million is to choose box B but you will always get the million if you choose box B.

Maybe that's too big of an assumption for the ambiguity of the text prompt, but fuck it. Go B or go home

Yeah, the question is basically a dressed-up way of asking if you believe in free will or not.

yeah i remember this remnant boss

Doe posted...

@BuzzKilljoy @Sansoldier A plurality of professional philosophers choose to take both boxes A and B

The reason being that by the time you are presented with the choice, the box already either does or does not contain the money.

If the box does contain the money, then A-and-B gets the most money ($1000 + million). If the box does not contain the money, then A-and-B gets the most money ($1000 + $0).

This is the first post to make me understand why this is even a question - now I get it and that's interesting.

But i think the way the question is phrased this forgets something. The alien can predict human behavior with 99.9% accuracy (which means he basically knows what you are going to do almost definitely). Which means that if you're not the type of person to think this way he will be more likely to put the million dollars in the box.

So actually this isn't quite true. By the time you think about using the strategy you wrote you've already lost. So while A+B is always better than B, this ignores the fact that if you think that way you lessen your earnings. If you think of it like well of COURSE ill always choose the million, and then do it, you actually get more money (assuming the alien is as good at prediction as he says he is). So you can't always choose A+B over B, because if you do, the alien will predict it and give you less money

Whelp, since he has a 99.9% correct prediction rate... I'll ask him what he's predicted for me.

If he says that I'd take box B, I'll take box B; because he just told me there's a cool million in it. Therefore helping him maintain his prediction record.

I'm a great guy, helping that alien out!

VRX3000 posted...

Yeahtheres no reason not go pick both boxes. Nothing in this scenario says that the alien will remove money after the choice.

option 1) he thinks I pick both boxes, so he leaves 1k
option 2) he thinks I pick b, so he leaves 1 mil and 1k

the money is in their either way. Take both boxes. Either hes right and I get 1k, or hes wrong and I get 1m plus 1k.

the only reason to pick box b alone is if the money vanishes if you pick both. Which nothing in this says so.

But this leaves off that he's 99.9% accurate in his predictions. So he almost definitely KNOWS you will pick both boxes, so its option 1 for you.

But if I would always answer this question with just box B, he will make me have option 2, so I will get a million. I can't say that I would plan to do B and then just do A+B anyway, because he would predict that I was trying to trick him.

What I do has absolutely no bearing on whether or not I get a million dollars (literally; I have no choice but to take box B which is the only one that might have $1m) because that's entirely up to the being's prediction which I have no knowledge or control over, so I might as well take both boxes and at least guarantee myself $1k. If it ends up being $1.001m instead, cool.

Not really getting how this is supposed to be a brainteaser in the slightest, unless someone is just not understanding the situation entirely. The only choice really being offered to me is "do you want a free thousand dollars along with the chance for a million, or not"

Pitlord_Special posted...

Just box B

$1000 wont change my life but 1 mill definitely would

This always

$1000 is $1000 but the mystery box could be anything. It could even be a boat! You know how much we wanted one of those!

Philip027 posted...

What I do has absolutely no bearing on whether or not I get a million dollars (literally; I have no choice but to take box B which is the only one that might have $1m) because that's entirely up to the being's prediction which I have no knowledge or control over, so I might as well take both boxes and at least guarantee myself $1k. If it ends up being $1.001m instead, cool.

Not really getting how this is supposed to be a brainteaser in the slightest, unless someone is just not understanding the situation entirely. The only choice really being offered to me is "Along with the chance for a million dollars, would you like a free thousand dollars, or not?" which... isn't exactly something to agonize over.

The bullshit is in the "accurate prediction".

The money is already in there or not, so your decision should not change this at all.

But because his prediction is so perfectly accurate, the decision you will make in the future, already changed the money the alien put into the box in the past.

Logic states that the money will be in there or not, doesn't matter what you do, so better take both.But the setup of the reliable prediction defies this logic.

Taking A and B will always give you 1000$ more, no matter the prediction, but with choosing B, the prediction is supposed to change, giving you the million.

At 99.9% accuracy, B only has a much higher expected value.

If the alien was only 50% accurate, taking both would have a higher expected value, but at 99.9% they arent even close and B only has a much higher expected payout.

By believing the prediction already happened so both boxes give 1k more than B only, you have already lost. The only reliable way of winning is to commit to being a one boxer and then following through on it.

Why does everyone keep saying he's only 99.9% accurate? The prompt says he's never been wrong.

Assuming that is true, taking B only is the smartest move.

Sindayven posted...

Why does everyone keep saying he's only 99.9% accurate? The prompt says he's never been wrong.

At least 99.9%. He has ran 999 trials and you're the last trial.
999/1000 = 99.9% if he gets this wrong.

Sindayven posted...

Assuming that is true, taking B only is the smartest move.

The thing is by the time he tells you this problem, he has already set up B. So, whichever choice you make, the money is already either there or not there. Your final choice cannot change whether money is in the box because he already made his prediction. And whether money is in the box or not, A + B gets you $1000 more than B.

so it really boils down to the choice between being able to smugly prove a magical genie wrong

or winning a million dollars

Philip027 posted...

What I do has absolutely no bearing on whether or not I get a million dollars (literally; I have no choice but to take box B which is the only one that might have $1m) because that's entirely up to the being's prediction which I have no knowledge or control over, so I might as well take both boxes and at least guarantee myself $1k. If it ends up being $1.001m instead, cool.

Not really getting how this is supposed to be a brainteaser in the slightest, unless someone is just not understanding the situation entirely. The only choice really being offered to me is "Along with the chance for a million dollars, would you like a free thousand dollars, or not?" which... isn't exactly something to agonize over.

The paradox is that if you approach the problem like this and the alien has omniscience or pseudo-omniscience of some sort, then you've failed the problem.

There is one axiom--The alien is telling the truth. If he's not, then anything ia possible with either choice, so it's not worth applying logic to. The alien represents something that is fundamentally unknowable, but if it operates as it's described, then rationale can be applied to it's dilemma.

Here is the problem:

You are approaching the problem as if it's a traditional space-time issue--3 dimensions of space, 1 dimension of time, 1 direction for causality (Events in the future cannot affect events in the present or past). This does not have to be the case, however. The alien is potentially a creature beyond our comprehension, and thus you might be able to make choices in YOUR future that can affect changes in the ALIEN'S past, i.e. the results of your choice may be observable by the alien in the past making the prediction. This is not to say this is the answer, rather, it is proof that the alien's prediction does not need to obey typical expectations we would have when trying this same riddle with, say, an actual person in real life.

Beyond the extra-dimensional shenanigans, however, your capacity to accept that your choices CAN be predicted is fundamental as to whether you choose the box or not. If you accept that your choices are deterministic AND entirely knowable, and the nature of the universe is entirely deterministic and knowable, then you would need to select box b in order to benefit from this deterministic filter. If your choices are determinstic, then you MUST select box b in order to get the million dollars. It is a self-fulfilling prophecy. The possible outcomes are as follows:

The Universe is Deterministic + You believe the universe is deterministic = You select Box B and win one million.

The Universe is Not Deterministic + You believe it is = You select Box B. Whether you win one million is up to how accurate the aliens predictions actually are. Current data shows you have a 99.9% chance of winning 1 million dollars.

The Universe is Deterministic + You don't believe it is = You pick both boxes and win one thousand.

The Universe is Not Deterministic ,+ You don't believe it is = You pick both boxes. You get one thousand. Whether you win one million is up to how accurate the alien's predictions are. Current data shows you have a .1% chance of winning the million.

The only time it's logical to choose both boxes is if you assume the alien is lying about some, but not all, of the info he's given you up to this point which is... A conclusion you could reach, I guess.

This is too poorly written to be a logic question or a game theory question.

Pogo_Marimo posted...

The paradox is that if you approach the problem like this and the alien has omniscience or pseudo-omniscience of some sort, then you've failed the problem.

There is one axiom--The alien is telling the truth. If he's not, then anything ia possible with either choice, so it's not worth applying logic to. The alien represents something that is fundamentally unknowable, but if it operates as it's described, then rationale can be applied to it's dilemma.

Here is the problem:

You are approaching the problem as if it's a traditional space-time issue--3 dimensions of space, 1 dimension of time, 1 direction for causality (Events in the future cannot affect events in the present or past). This does not have to be the case, however. The alien is potentially a creature beyond our comprehension, and thus you might be able to make choices in YOUR future that can affect changes in the ALIEN'S past, i.e. the results of your choice may be observable by the alien in the past making the prediction. This is not to say this is the answer, rather, it is proof that the alien's prediction does not need to obey typical expectations we would have when trying this same riddle with, say, an actual person in real life.

Beyond the extra-dimensional shenanigans, however, your capacity to accept that your choices CAN be predicted is fundamental as to whether you choose the box or not. If you accept that your choices are deterministic AND entirely knowable, and the nature of the universe is entirely deterministic and knowable, then you would need to select box b in order to benefit from this deterministic filter. If your choices are determinstic, then you MUST select box b in order to get the million dollars. It is a self-fulfilling prophecy. The possible outcomes are as follows:

The Universe is Deterministic + You believe the universe is deterministic = You select Box B and win one million.

The Universe is Not Deterministic + You believe it is = You select Box B. Whether you win one million is up to how accurate the aliens predictions actually are. Current data shows you have a 99.9% chance of winning 1 million dollars.

The Universe is Deterministic + You don't believe it is = You pick both boxes and win one thousand.

The Universe is Not Deterministic ,+ You don't believe it is = You pick both boxes. You get one thousand. Whether you win one million is up to how accurate the alien's predictions are. Current data shows you have a .1% chance of winning the million.

The only time it's logical to choose both boxes is if you assume the alien is lying about some, but not all, of the info he's given you up to this point which is... A conclusion you could reach, I guess.

That is indeed the conclusion I've reached. There's no reason necessarily for me to believe that any of his past "predictions" has any influence on this one, in much the same way that just because you called a coin flip right X amount of times in a row doesn't mean you're necessarily any more likely to call the next one right.

I also don't normally believe in any of this self-fulfilling prophecy crap (as if the choice I make now will somehow influence what he's already predicted in the past) so naturally I'm not going to buy into it here.

A very easy way for the alien to be lying is to have box B have some magicians gimmick. They pretend to be an amazing predictor, but actually make their decision after you do.

I obviously take both boxes.

If Box B has nothing - I get 1000

If Box B has 1000000 - I get 1001000

The prediction is irrelevant because the boxes are set by the time of my choice, and regardless of his prediction A+B makes more money than just B.

Tyranthraxus posted...

I take only box A and his head explodes. Then I rifle through his remains to get the $1 million

This is the true correct answer

"Let's assume retroactive causality is demonstrably real."
"I behave as if it's not."

A+Bers in a nutshell.

Sindayven posted...

"Let's assume retroactive causality is demonstrably real."
"I behave as if it's not."

A+Bers in a nutshell.

Yeah, how absurd is that?

Next they'll be suggesting atheists to worship God anyway, just in case he's real too.

I want nothing

Sindayven posted...

"Let's assume retroactive causality is demonstrably real."
"I behave as if it's not."

A+Bers in a nutshell.

It isn't demonstrably real, and nothing in the scenario suggests that it is

IceCreamOnStero posted...

It isn't demonstrably real, and nothing in the scenario suggests that it is

The alien's perfect predictions indicate either it or knowable determinism is real. If you want to choose to not believe the alien then that's fine, but if he's telling the truth then there is, with almost statistical certainty, some type of methodology that at the very least that mimics one of those two possibilities.

I wonder if people would change their choice if the alien said "I know with certainty which box you will choose" instead of calling it a "prediction".

I feel like deciding randomly through something like a coin flip would be smart.

He couldn't accurately predict that.

Accolon posted...

I feel like deciding randomly through something like a coin flip would be smart.

He couldn't accurately predict that.

The point isn't to beat his prediction lol. The point is to get free money.

Pogo_Marimo posted...

I wonder if people would change their choice if the alien said "I know with certainty which box you will choose" instead of calling it a "prediction".

If he already knows with certainty then your "choice" is pre-determined. The A+Bers never get a chance.

If you can still choose which box then retrocausality is present and the future is determining the past.