Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1371

(+) Yeah! (+)

What's the strongest game you'd confidently take Elden Ring to beat?

Whatever the strongest of FFX/Melee/Ultimate/The Witcher 3 is.

It's interesting how much of a dead zone 2002-2014 are for strong games. It's likely that BotW, SSBU, Witcher 3, and Elden Ring would all beat everything released in that period. Maybe SMO too? Probably not FF7R, but even that would be high tier for the period...

MacArrowny posted...

It's interesting how much of a dead zone 2002-2014 are for strong games. It's likely that BotW, SSBU, Witcher 3, and Elden Ring would all beat everything released in that period. Maybe SMO too? Probably not FF7R, but even that would be high tier for the period...

What are the strongest games from that period? Wind Waker, Twilight Princess, Metroid Prime, MGS3, RE4 would be the top 5, right? Did I miss something?

Ocarina of Time 3D

pjbasis posted...

Ocarina of Time 3D

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4585-best-of-2011-best-portable-game

Leonhart4 posted...

What are the strongest games from that period? Wind Waker, Twilight Princess, Metroid Prime, MGS3, RE4 would be the top 5, right? Did I miss something?

Skyrim. Also possibly Brawl, though I assume it'd lose to all of those.

Would put Kingdom Hearts II in the top 5 in that period without thinking too hard

MacArrowny posted...

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4585-best-of-2011-best-portable-game

Black/White needs to be tested

Skyrim was equal to Prime in 2015 and KH2 was equal to RE4 in 2009, so yeah, those deserve consideration

Skyrim has been released so many times I didn't know which year was the original release...!

Leonhart4 posted...

Skyrim has been released so many times I didn't know which year was the original release...!

what release date could be more memorable than 11/11/11

I think a lot of that relative lack of strong games is due to three things:

1) Nintendo being in a weird place. They were in their lowest point of popularity from 2004-2005, out of favour with enthusiasts from 2008-2011, and putting out some terrific games but not hitting the mainstream as much from 2011-2016. From 2017 on they had the Switch and had both the mainstream popularity and the great games.

2) The fall of Square. Self-explanatory, it started around the mid-2000s and continues effectively to this day.

3) The huge non-Square Action RPGs werent as common yet - your Skyrims, Witcher 3s, and Elden Rings.

To which point I will submit another strong game from that period - Fallout 3.

MacArrowny posted...

what release date could be more memorable than 11/11/11

9/9/99

Also I think Fallout 3 was in consideration at one point, but I don't think it would beat any of the other games mentioned now.

Outside gamefaqs I have the impression Fallout 3 has over time ended up the consensus lesser game to New Vegas and while I don't think that's gonna hold here (since more of the playrate here is probably non-devoted fans who played these games over a decade ago, often on dubious console ports, and thus more likely reflect the initial reaction to both), this combined with later Fallout games being comparatively disappointing makes me real skeptical of Fallout 3 still hitting the upper ranges of its potential strength. I'd give it a great shot at # 8 from the period, though.

Yeah I think Fallout 3 has fallen a bit from its peak. Same with Witcher 3.

I will say, people keep predicting the demise of these BGS games and it hasnt happened yet!

LightningStrikes posted...

I will say, people keep predicting the demise of these BGS games and it hasnt happened yet!

Fallout 3 hasn't been in a relevant non-Undertale contest match for 12 years. The closest you get is extrapolating Breath of the Wild vs. Fallout 3 through Life is Strange, and that actually ends up pretty brutal. Fallout 4 did as middling as people expected, New Vegas didn't light the world on fire, and Skyrim mildly underperformed compared to pre-contest expectations.

I mean I don't think it's controversial that Fallout 3's probably not beating TP, WW, Skyrim, or Metroid Prime (which almost beat Skyrim in 2015) so the "demise" here would mainly be a matter of whether Fallout 3 beats or is at least on par with MGS3, RE4, and KHII.

I mean thats a bit harsh when you consider that Fallout 3 hasnt HAD a non-Undertale related contest match in 12 years! And yeah I was excluding New Vegas. I also dont think Skyrim underperformed, it actually held up very well. The Witcher 3 was just broadly underestimated.

Fallout 3 is in a painful spot where I don't think it's a threat to pull off any big upsets, but also not weak enough to be vulnerable to being upset (barring Undertale-like insanity). I think if it got put in a bracket we'd generally have a very good read of where it falls.

All this is to say, Starfield is the one 2023 game with a hope of beating TotK. Which assumes it has a great reception and a minimum of bugs which is probably too much to ask.

Yeah, it's not a slight on Fallout 3 to say it's a step behind those other games. It's just no longer at its peak, and it was essentially equal to those games at its very best.

3s in a weird spot because 4s taken over the casual spot and New Vegas has dominated the hardcore spot for the series, so what does 3 do?

LightningStrikes posted...

All this is to say, Starfield is the one 2023 game with a hope of beating TotK. Which assumes it has a great reception and a minimum of bugs which is probably too much to ask.

I don't think it has any chance of beating TotK, due to being Xbox/PC exclusive. When's the last time a game not on a Sony/Nintendo console had serious strength? TotK could still flop Skyward Sword-style, but even then I'd rather take FFXVI (or Remake 2 if that actually comes out this year) than Starfield.

The problem is that describes so few major games recently as to be pointless. Starfield and Redfall are basically the first big premium Microsoft exclusives (thats not a sim) in years aside from Halo Infinite which was partially free to play and had issues. So there isnt really a comparison point. Mass Effect 2 won GOTY with no Sony/Nintendo version. Skyrim may as well have done since the PS3 version was famously awful. There is of course Undertale with its rally.

70% of the site play games on PC, about 45% have a relatively high-end machine if you go by polls. Thats enough to play Starfield for sure.

We are now moving into a new age of Microsoft exclusives that arent shooters ir sims for the first time in basically a decade. We cant really know what thats like.

The thing with ME2 and Skyrim is that this site loved the 360. It hasn't had much love for any other Xbox system.

The Series X and Game Pass is pretty great

Also Game Pass is on PC, which the site does love. Starfield will be on Game Pass. Id be shocked if Starfield is not played by a very significant portion of the site assuming of course it actually delivers.

I wish I could enjoy earnest game strength debate, but without contests, it feels like arguing about whether Iron Man could beat Naruto.

pjbasis posted...

I wish I could enjoy earnest game strength debate, but without contests, it feels like arguing about whether Iron Man could beat Naruto.

Including or excluding Naruto's movie feats?

I can't picture Fallout 3 being all that strong nowadays, since New Vegas took off as the fan favorite in that series. It would probably do okay, but even games like MGS2 or Portal might be too much for it nowadays.

pjbasis posted...

I wish I could enjoy earnest game strength debate, but without contests, it feels like arguing about whether Iron Man could beat Naruto.

I'm good with that too

Expand the contest roster, Allen

MacArrowny posted...

It's interesting how much of a dead zone 2002-2014 are for strong games. It's likely that BotW, SSBU, Witcher 3, and Elden Ring would all beat everything released in that period. Maybe SMO too? Probably not FF7R, but even that would be high tier for the period...

The newer games look better because they haven't been put up against any old games outside that weird BotW/MM SFF match.

MacArrowny posted...

It's interesting how much of a dead zone 2002-2014 are for strong games. It's likely that BotW, SSBU, Witcher 3, and Elden Ring would all beat everything released in that period. Maybe SMO too? Probably not FF7R, but even that would be high tier for the period...

Damn, I never realized this, but it's spot-on.

Take away Brawl, TP, WW, Prime 1, Skyrim, RE4, MGS3, Mario Galaxy 1/2, and maybe Xenoblade/P4, and you're left with a sea of midcarders.

I blame the Wii/360/PS3 era for being so meh. At that point, games were so expensive to make that companies were less willing to take risks.

The Wii60 era was fantastic and had a lot of good games. Lightning Strike's explanation makes the most sense - it was a downward period for Nintendo and Square specifically, which matters most to this site. Besides Nintendo and Square, this site's other love affair is AAA WRPGs, and those hadn't fully taken off yet either.

Yeah, I loved my PS3 and got a ton of mileage out of it. It's not that there weren't a lot of good games, just not as many good games this site cared about. We had a friggin' Call of Duty win GotY here somehow.

It was also a generation as evenly divided by three consoles as we've seen before, both in overall sales and GameFAQs fanfare when recognizing the Wii's early years VS the PS3/360's later years.

Also during a similar timeframe, handheld systems were at their strongest and cell phone games were being introduced. The DS and 3DS sold like hotcakes, the PSP (and maybe the Vita?) were the best-selling non-Nintendo handhelds, and people adopting smartphones dying those times were getting free new apps without having to pay for more. There are few examples of them getting top-tier games (LoZ:LBW barely won GotY one year and MKDS make it to a GotY-final in a weak year)...but time playing those competed with time playing the biggest console games of the era. We even saw the 3DS win a SotY-poll:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5384-best-of-2013-system-of-the-year

The DS also made a big landing in its debut SotY-poll and competed with the Wii's later years:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2255-best-of-2005-system-of-the-year

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3725-best-of-2009-system-of-the-year

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4219-best-of-2010-system-of-the-year

All this is to add that there was a lot of competition of attention during those years. It was harder for that generation's biggest games to tower over the rest. No console towered over the other consoles so much, and handhelds were making history in the meanwhile.

Also Brawl had tripping and bad online. It was so close to still being one of the site's very biggest games even today.

I'd be absolutely fascinated in seeing Brawl in a traditional contest setting. It'd still be strong, but how strong?

Unfortunately, that would require giving a spot to Brawl (and getting a new contest in the first place).

Wow, we got a 1v1 poll even after that thrashing by Elden Ring:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/9059-

I'm always down for a one-on-one poll. That said, having this today really tells me it would have been nice to have a six-way poll yesterday instead of three.

I'd feel different if there were two Nintendo games in the six-way poll, however, so my stance depends on LFF potential. Guess I won't harp on yesterday's three-way poll too much in that regard...just wish we had a better read on XB3.

Two polls for comparison to today

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7473-best-of-2018-game-of-the-year-final-final-vote

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/8031-division-5-final-the-witcher-3-wild-hunt-vs-god-of-war

I don't think Ragnarok will be as strong as the PS4-GoW, but it starts the comparisons

The fact that we didn't have a 6-way poll really hurts because I think Xenoblade 3 would have done better than Crisis Core in yesterday's 3-way poll. Taking the top 2 games from the first 3 GotY polls for an 6-way GotY would have only included Xenoblade 3 as a game that has any sort of connection to Nintendo, so no real issue with LFF there.

The 1v1 poll is a little pointless, but at least it makes these GotY polls feel a bit less rushed

Jesus Christ Elden Ring is absolutely scorching the number two game of the year which annihilated the rest of the field. Impressive flex of contest strength at display here.

I feel quite confident in my Elden Ring is a top 10 game expectation now.

So whats the strongest #2 game for a given year?

Id say the main challengers are:

Super Mario Galaxy 2
Xenoblade Chronicles
The Last of Us
Persona 5
God of War (2018)

Persona 5's the answer in my book. I'll mention Metal Gear Solid 4 as a former contender that might still be up there but I kinda doubt it nowadays.

Peak MGS4 would be a good pick yeah but not now.

Persona 5 is a good pick but I'm not sure I would even pick it in a head to head with SMO. 2017 was stacked and SMO got the worst of it. But this was for #2s, not too sure about SMG2, but otherwise the others in those five aren't beating Persona 5.

FFX beat Melee in 2001 right? Because then the answer is probably Melee.

I was looking at Melee first but GTA3 got #2 that year.

Feels weird to have a 1-on-1 poll since Elden Ring got +50%.

Suck it, McCarthy.