Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1370

(+) Yeah! (+)

Add Fire Emblem, Dark Souls, and Xenoblade to the list.

And hell, why not Mega Man Battle Network? A game's never made a contest, but my gut tells me it'd beat Ys.

HaRRicH posted...

Counterpoint:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7957-division-6-round-1-sonic-mania-vs-ys-viii

Good contest

How is "Ys VIII: Lacrimosa of DANA" pronounced anyways?

TeamRocketElite posted...

How is "Ys VIII: Lacrimosa of DANA" pronounced anyways?

And now I finally know

MacArrowny posted...

Not sure what else might be above it.

- Xeno, or even just Xenoblade if Xeno doesn't count
- Tales of
- Kingdom Hearts

Persona beats Street Fighter, but I too don't think it's that bad. I think Persona 4 would kill SF4 today but at a series, SF should hold up better here.

UltimaterializerX posted...

The disrespect that series gets for its strength curve around these parts, I tell ya.

No no no, people were definitely overhyping it last contest. Persona 5 was being called star of the contest left and right when it did exactly what everyone expected it to.

SF vs Persona is basically can Nintendofaqs SF2 on the SNES beat the Persona series.

shane15 posted...

SF vs Persona is basically can Nintendofaqs SF2 on the SNES beat the Persona series.

P3-5 hitting Switch spells doom for SF as far as I'm concerned.

Pokemon
Final Fantasy
Chrono
Dragon Quest
Persona
Shin Megami Tensei
Paper Mario
Star Ocean (is this in question nowadays...?)
Undertale/Deltarune?
Breath of Fire?
Mother?
Trails?

Tales of __. Mana probably beats out Ys too, right? Suikoden, Disgaea, and Golden Sun

Add Fire Emblem, Dark Souls, and Xenoblade to the list.

And hell, why not Mega Man Battle Network? A game's never made a contest, but my gut tells me it'd beat Ys.

Yeah, I would expect most of those to beat Ys in a series contest.

The only ones from that list I could see Ys beating are maaaybe Breath of Fire and Disgaea. I'm not even sure I'd take Ys over Wild Arms or Shadow Hearts. Ys is still too niche and the series' name doesn't carry any sex appeal for casual voters.

plasmabeam posted...

P3-5 hitting Switch spells doom for SF as far as I'm concerned.

You're really overestimating the impact that will have then. Ports rarely have any discernible impact.

This is tantamount to Heroic Mario picking Mega Man to win SC2K4 because of the Mega Man Anniversary Collection

Leonhart4 posted...

You're really overestimating the impact that will have then

This is tantamount to Heroic Mario picking Mega Man to win SC2K4 because of the Mega Man Anniversary Collection

Suggesting that Persona will get boosted enough to comfortably defeat SF is nothing like suggesting that MMAC will boost Mega Man enough to win an entire contest.

The point is that it's drastically overestimating the impact a port will have. Persona beating Street Fighter does not depend on the Switch ports at all. If you didn't think it would win before, you shouldn't change your mind because of a port, and that goes for, well, pretty much anything.

But thankfully we'll never have to worry about it because even Villains Contest 2 got more votes than Series Contest 2 in that poll asking what contest we want to see next

I'm now curious if people taking Persona would also take Tales over Street Fighter. Persona and Tales aren't all that dissimilar in contest history.

https://www.gematsu.com/2022/07/final-fantasy-x-series-shipments-and-digital-sales-top-20-8-million

Wow, that's a lot more than the last few FF games have sold.

WarThaNemesis2 posted...

I'm now curious if people taking Persona would also take Tales over Street Fighter. Persona and Tales aren't all that dissimilar in contest history.

The dissimilarity is how weak every non-Symphonia Tales game is. Like, Persona 3 isn't even strong, but I'd take it over any Tales game that isn't Symphonia.

I'd go Persona => Street Fighter > Tales.

Street Fighter in general isn't very impressive on gamefaqs game-for-game barring maybe Street Fighter II being decent but the legacy of how it popularized and carried fighting games gives it considerable strength beyond that - and after all, it did rise to the occasion and give RE a fight back in the day. Even if RE's part of the match picture sucked and all!

What might be a problem is whether Street Fighter V has soured people on the franchise. And more generally, whether typical gamefaqs users still actively follow or care about non-Smash fighting game series - some of the issue might have been bad choices by nominators who just picked whatever entry they were playing currently but non-Smash fighting games in general suffered several embarrassing blowouts in 2020. And I guess people probably split their noms among the different versions or something but Street Fighter II not making it into 2015 isn't a great look for it either.

Persona has two reasonable strength midcarders that both probably beat Tales' one. Tales has the bigger backbench admittedly. And while gamefaqs is typically slow in embracing newer trends even in stuff it likes and probably never fully converges, it has shown to not be totally immune. It's hard to ignore how much more popular and beloved Persona is on the internet in general than Tales of, whether in explicitly JRPGish spaces or more mainstream ones. Since Persona 5's launch, that franchise has escaped the JRPG ghetto.

I mean, not making it to the field in 2015 is meaningless, because metacritic scores were given enough weight to judge that Super Mario Bros. 1 wasn't a worthwhile video game. Do I think Street Fighter II loses to Mario 1? Of course. But also the infamous SFII LOST match involved Street Fighter II looking like it would beat every Resident Evil.

Never forgive, never forget Sonic 3 & Knuckles

Quite frankly if trends from 2015 continued Street Fighter might be significantly stronger than it was in the first Series Contest.

To be fair, Street Fighter had a very favourable match picture against Resident Evil.

charmander6000 posted...

To be fair, Street Fighter had a very favourable match picture against Resident Evil.

It did, but I don't think it was the difference between a narrow loss and a blowout. SF still put in a respectable performance.

SFII LOST is not the last time we saw Street Fighter II in a contest match, though.
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3450-division-2-round-1-castlevania-3-civilization-sonic-1-sfii
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3480-division-2-round-2-sonic-1-sfii-smb-3-monkey-island

Oh, I don't think any SF on its own is super strong because they get diluted across all the myriad versions.

But there's a reason why Ryu is consistently a high midcarder, and that's because of the respect he garners as the representative for the series.

AxemRedRanger posted...

SFII LOST is not the last time we saw Street Fighter II in a contest match, though.
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3450-division-2-round-1-castlevania-3-civilization-sonic-1-sfii
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3480-division-2-round-2-sonic-1-sfii-smb-3-monkey-island

This is perhaps not the devastating victory for Persona you think it is, as in that contest Sonic 1 looked like the only respectable game in the series (remember, Sonic 2 didn't exactly dominate a match involving Secret of Mana and Mortal Kombat 2 before Link's Awakening completely buried it, and Sonic 3 bombed so hard against Super Mario Kart despite Super Metroid being in the same poll that we never need to see it in a contest again, even a Game of the Decade: 90s one, without '& Knuckles' attached to it), and Persona 5 itself isn't much stronger than Sonic 2.

WarThaNemesis2 posted...

I mean, not making it to the field in 2015 is meaningless, because metacritic scores were given enough weight to judge that Super Mario Bros. 1 wasn't a worthwhile video game

Now I'm mad about this again, that might still be the most stupid decision ever when it had the nominations and would have a better metacritic score than literally everything if it had one.

Allen was just shaking in his boots at the prospect of that Mario 1/Halo match he insisted would be a blowout for Halo

WarThaNemesis2 posted...

I'm now curious if people taking Persona would also take Tales over Street Fighter. Persona and Tales aren't all that dissimilar in contest history.

P5 and P4 were legit contenders in GotD2, which leads me to believe the series has strength.

All Tales has going for it is Symphonia, and I can't picture Symphonia hanging with Xenoblade or even Portal 2.

I would take SF > Tales and not lose sleep over it.

Which means you don't think TTYD can hang with them either, which I'd disagree with

Leonhart4 posted...

Which means you don't think TTYD can hang with them either, which I'd disagree with

TTYD/ToS 2015 might've involved some weird rSFF due to the fact that they're both 2004 GameCube RPGs and ToS defines what it means to be a GameCube RPG.

And Xenoblade 1 would smack TTYD 60-40.

TTYD likely beats Portal 2 in a close match.

"I can't explain why Symphonia did so well so there just have been some weird rSFF so I can just ignore that result"

Xenoblade getting 60% on TTYD is definitely above its pay grade. That means P4 would too and I don't think even P5 would manage that.

Leonhart4 posted...

"I can't explain why Symphonia did so well so there just have been some weird rSFF so I can just ignore that result"

Pointing to the fact that they're both GameCube RPGs with an overlapping fanbase is a logical explanation. ToS defined Cube RPGs more than TTYD did, similar to how Mario defines Nintendo more than Samus does.

Xenoblade getting 60% on TTYD is definitely above its pay grade. That means P4 would too and I don't think even P5 would manage that.

Agreed. I actually edited my previous post a moment ago. No way is TTYD weaker than Three Houses.

I'd say Xenoblade gets 55%+ on TTYD because the Nintendo RPG fanbase sees Xenoblade as a landmark game whereas TTYD was just a great game.

P4 or P5 vs. TTYD is tricky. I could even see TTYD > P4 because I don't think P4 is ready to beat a quality game with the "Mario" label on it. P5, however, probably puts 55%+ on TTYD.

It's a "logical explanation" with zero proof designed to give you an easy excuse to ignore an inconvenient result. Symphonia has looked legit in literally every contest appearance. There's no reason to discredit it, although it doesn't stop people from trying all the time.

You can "logically" argue for SFF in almost any match (because literally everything has overlap). That doesn't mean it exists. The question is if the overlap is disproportionate, and I don't see the reason to assume it there.

Leonhart4 posted...

It's a "logical explanation" with zero proof designed to give you an easy excuse to ignore an inconvenient result. Symphonia has looked legit in literally every contest appearance. There's no reason to discredit it, although it doesn't stop people from trying all the time.

You can "logically" argue for SFF in almost any match (because literally everything has overlap). That doesn't mean it exists. The question is if the overlap is disproportionate, and I don't see the reason to assume it there.

ToS and TTYD released within three months of each other on the same console as exclusives. That's a recipe for strong overlap. If you owned a GameCube and loved RPGs, you likely bought both games. Since ToS was the more traditional (swords & magic) RPG of the two, it became the Cube's flagship RPG, which I believe enabled it to rSFF TTYD.

As for why ToS gets discredited, it's because the game's only outright victory came in 52-48 fashion over RE5, which is widely hated by the RE fanbase.

plasmabeam posted...

ToS and TTYD released within three months of each other on the same console as exclusives. That's a recipe for strong overlap. If you owned a GameCube and loved RPGs, you likely bought both games. Since ToS was the more traditional (swords & magic) RPG of the two, it became the Cube's flagship RPG, which I believe enabled it to rSFF TTYD.

This explains why SFF is possible (rSFF I'd wager is significantly less likely, it takes a very special set of circumstances for that to happen, and TTYD/Symphonia ain't it), but there's literally no need to use it to explain Symphonia's performance. It's justified its strength elsewhere. I don't see the need for argue for SFF unless the result is an anomaly compared to its other performances, and this isn't. Keep in mind that just because fanbases have overlap doesn't mean they have SFF. Things that are close in strength don't tend to SFF each other.

plasmabeam posted...

As for why ToS gets discredited, it's because the game's only outright victory came in 52-48 fashion over RE5, which is widely hated by the RE fanbase.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7923-division-2-round-1-mass-effect-2-vs-resident-evil-7

yeah people thought Mass Effect 2 was in big trouble after this performance against a supposedly lesser Resident Evil

turns out Resident Evil is a pretty strong brand here, Symphonia outright winning that match should not be taken as a sign of its weakness

I don't think gamecube RPG is a big enough thing for a significant overlap that would show in contest, let alone rSFF which is extremely unusual if existent.

Also Resident Evil 5 ended up in like the top quarter of the x-stats despite being the Ultimate Loser, it wasn't bad.

Symphonia has strength. I'd guess Tales wouldn't be strong as a series though.

This is a reminder that the mighty Persona 5 did 4 percent better on Witcher 3 than Super Mario Galaxy 2 did.

The mighty Super Mario Galaxy 2 that lost to Mass Effect 1.

Symphonia the game has only ever done well in polls. There's no need to question its strength. Tales as a series would be pretty weak, though.

Persona 5 also had a decent rally attempt against Witcher before rolling over.

Persona 5 would beat ToS easy, P4/ToS would be more of a debate.

LeonhartFour posted...

This explains why SFF is possible (rSFF I'd wager is significantly less likely, it takes a very special set of circumstances for that to happen, and TTYD/Symphonia ain't it), but there's literally no need to use it to explain Symphonia's performance. It's justified its strength elsewhere. I don't see the need for argue for SFF unless the result is an anomaly compared to its other performances, and this isn't. Keep in mind that just because fanbases have overlap doesn't mean they have SFF. Things that are close in strength don't tend to SFF each other.

I'll give ToS credit for never looking bad in a contest poll. That's fair. I suggested there was rSFF because that's when the weaker entry overperforms. Conventional wisdom would suggest that a well-received Mario game should have no trouble defeating a non-Square JRPG, and yet TTYD/ToS was basically dead even.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7923-division-2-round-1-mass-effect-2-vs-resident-evil-7

yeah people thought Mass Effect 2 was in big trouble after this performance against a supposedly lesser Resident Evil

turns out Resident Evil is a pretty strong brand here, Symphonia outright winning that match should not be taken as a sign of its weakness

While RE7 does have some haters within the RE fanbase, RE5 has considerably more. RE5 completed the hard shift away from the franchise's survival horror roots and alienated a lot of longtime fans in the process. RE7 on the other hand, returned the main series to survival horror.

There's no way RE5 would do that now. It was barely a year old when that match happened.

"Conventional wisdom" doesn't always hold up.

Like your argument for rSFF is "people who played both really liked ToS"

At that point you should just say people really like ToS and that's enough

Turtles in Time for the next Games Contest

Leonhart4 posted...

Turtles in Time for the next Games Contest

If only the year 2020 had been as awesome as it was in Turtles in Time.

Bump

https://www.youtube.com/c/gamespot/community

Gamespot is doing a mini Best Mobile Game tournament

the highlight so far is that Snake is doubling Hearthstone

meaning it would be worth 14.50% on OoT if Hearthstone is as weak there as it is here

Snake could've potentially won a round in GotD2 though if it had replaced Hearthstone since it's got approximately the same percentage as Divinity: Original Sin II

It took me a moment to realize you weren't talking about Snake.

Seeing Monument Valley losing to Candy Crush makes me sad.

Also, not exactly a comprehensive tournament, considering they're omitting stuff like Genshin Impact and Fortnite. You could argue they wanted mobile-only games, yet Plants Vs Zombies is on there.

Temple Run got robbed.