Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1370

Topic List
Page List: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
LeonhartFour
06/14/22 6:15:15 PM
#1:


Still just waiting.

~*creativename's contest site*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analyses*~
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/Main_Page

~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim*~
http://www.thengamer.com/
http://thengamer.com/xstats

~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

~*Closest Wire-To-Wire Matches*~
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/Closest_Wire-to-Wire_Matches

~*All-Time Guru List*~
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/All_Time_Guru_Rankings

~*Most Surprising Results*~
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/Most_Surprising_Results

~*Contest Histories*~
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends

~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's extrapolated percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

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UltimaterializerX
06/14/22 6:16:10 PM
#2:


Taggo

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LeonhartFour
06/14/22 6:22:54 PM
#3:


The alternative is that we could've gotten a bunch of cool matches we were all looking forward to seeing, like Chrono Trigger/FFVII and Pokemon facing all the Mario games.

Rallies have actively made contests less entertaining by causing more blowouts, increasing the predictability by making Undertale an obvious winner from the moment it beat Mass Effect 3 (when it's possible Chrono Trigger could have actually beaten Ocarina of Time, a much cooler result than just letting Tumblr take over and determine the outcome) and preventing us from seeing really cool matches.

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UltimaterializerX
06/14/22 6:27:43 PM
#4:


https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/1663-tournament-final-chrono-trigger-vs-final-fantasy-vii
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3497-division-4-final-ff7-goldeneye-s-mario-64-c-trigger

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6123-best-game-ever-day-19-round-2-super-mario-bros-3-vs-pokemon
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6180-best-game-ever-bonus-pokemon-red-blue-vs-super-mario-64

Rallied matches are usually more interesting, and not seeing CT/Ocarina is the only non-rematch I can think of we were actually robbed of seeing. Like what are you even talking about, dude? We've seen those matches you're mentioning before.

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LeonhartFour
06/14/22 6:29:10 PM
#5:


rallied matches are the most obvious outcomes of all, so no, they're not more interesting

also congratulations for proving my point by posting a match that was ruined by rally overflow in Mario 3 vs. R/B/Y

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charmander6000
06/14/22 6:45:48 PM
#6:


I mean, look at what rallying did to the Gamespot contests...

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Leonhart4
06/14/22 6:46:30 PM
#7:


charmander6000 posted...
I mean, look at what rallying did to the Gamespot contests...

They were so unpredictable I almost won first place in the Sidekick Contest LOL

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UltimaterializerX
06/14/22 6:50:24 PM
#8:


Pokemon was clearly going to win that thing anyway. Mario 3 has been trending down for ages. I picked Mario there and that thing was over in seconds with or without Undertale being around. You can have a rematch as many times as you want. The only surprise is whether or not Mario 3 ever breaks 45%.

We have had three out of left field rallied winners - L-Block, Draven, and Undertale. More of the rallied left field underdog types have ended up losing but you anti-rally folks love to pretend they all guarantee a contest win and ruin everything the second they win their first match, which is a straight up intellectually dishonest lie. Where is Weighted Companion Cube's contest trophy? Missingno's? Sandbag's? Mudkip's? L-Block's repeat in 2008? Shovel Knight? Probably others I'm missing?

And those are just things that actually won in round 1 and caught a bandwagon. There are countless examples of popular things getting rallied and also losing. There are a lot of joke entrants that people worried would go nuts that didn't win even one match. I don't see Zack Fair's contest trophy. How did Zelda do near the end last character contest? How did Master Chief do in 2008? Did Starcraft actually win that contest in 2004 or did I miss something? Wasn't Charizard going nuts one year? Didn't Mewtwo almost win a contest one year but Draven got in the way?

If you hate rallies I respect that, but you're just lying about what they actually do. Only three have ever won. And even then, Draven would have lost had the site not been DDoS'd during the Link match and Undertale was in actual danger against Melee for 12 hours. I'll happily take actual interesting stuff over Donkey Kong versus Vivi for the fourth time. "Oh man the year over year variance plus Elden Ring might boost Dark Souls by the 2.5% it needs to beat Skyrim!!" That stuff is boring. Give me random weird stuff.

Like, you hate rallies and would be happy with contests dying if it meant not having your pre-contest advanced metrics challenged in any way. It's okay dude, you can admit it. We're both way too old to pretend it's anything more than that. Especially if you're playing to win, since no rallies means Board 8 does far better! :D

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Leonhart4
06/14/22 7:00:29 PM
#9:


Now that you're pushing onto me an idea of me that's easy for you to defeat in an argument, we are officially done with this conversation.

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UltimaterializerX
06/14/22 7:08:22 PM
#10:


Im not pushing anything. Weve known each other 20 years. I just dont understand why you cant see why some people like random rallying so much. It doesnt make things predictable the other way because Ive just given plenty of examples where they lose more than they win.

Heres a good example. Vivi beating Mario. That was totally nuts and didnt result in Vivi winning a contest. Was that bad?

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Leonhart4
06/14/22 7:11:59 PM
#11:


I've never said I don't understand it. I personally don't like it.

And you don't know me as well as you think you do if that's who you think I am.

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UltimaterializerX
06/14/22 7:12:45 PM
#12:


Leonhart4 posted...
I personally don't like it.
Eeeey that's all I wanted

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Leonhart4
06/14/22 7:14:02 PM
#13:


UltimaterializerX posted...
Eeeey that's all I wanted

Something I've said for 15 years now. Glad to see you've been paying attention.

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pjbasis
06/14/22 7:17:20 PM
#14:


Rallies that can flip 45-55 matches are fine. Anything else is egregious randomness

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BlAcK TuRtLe
06/14/22 8:12:04 PM
#15:


It's all eggregious randomness to the people that actually care about the competition aspect of the contests. I think that's where a lot of rally/anti-rally supporters are split. People who hate rallies are people who value the fun analytical side of the contests. People who like rallies are the same people that post on /b/ about how RaNdOm and cOoKy they are

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BlAcK TuRtLe
06/14/22 8:20:27 PM
#16:


To expand a bit on Ulti's post in the last topic:

The alternative is things being way too predictable and contests dying, which goes back to my original point that this is the ultimate goal of the anti-rally people whether they know it or not. They might not actually want these things gone, but it's the end result of "I don't care what other sites think". You probably should welcome them if you want these to stick around.

Stupid rally results are not going to translate into regular users. If anything, it makes this website look like an absolute joke. The contests are a fun way to engage with the existing userbase and drive people who only periodically come to the site to visit more frequently for a few weeks.

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Malenia
06/14/22 8:43:23 PM
#17:


One day
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plasmabeam
06/14/22 10:23:59 PM
#18:


Even though I don't like the notable rallied entries ('04 Starcraft, '13 Draven, '15 Undertale), I do like rallies and the potential threat of them. A strong villain can elevate an otherwise bland story, and anything that can convince me to root hard for Link in 2013 is worth it IMO.


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LeonhartFour
06/14/22 10:30:25 PM
#19:


Eh, I just feel like most of us have very few fond memories of CBIX. That wasn't all Draven, but it had a lot to do with it. Rallies aren't going to give these contests new life or revive the site, and they don't make things more unpredictable because CBX had plenty of surprises. They just take contests away from those who have the most invested in them.

like if all you want is just to laugh at stupid results, then that's all well and good for you, you like what you like, but these contests are worth more to me than that

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_SecretSquirrel
06/14/22 10:35:36 PM
#20:


I really would have loved to have seen the winner of Chrono Trigger vs. Pokemon RBY against Ocarina of Time directly in that small window of time post-Wii U, but pre-BotW. If there was ever a time that GameFAQs would, on its own, choose another game over Ocarina, it would have been in that window of time that has long since closed.

I guess UNDERTALE managed to make the most out of that opportunity though, so I can't be completely mad. At least I can be happy that it was a small enjoyable indie game that actually was in position to benefit from making all the headlines that came with the contest victory, both in terms of public awareness and getting additional sales out of it. It's not like League of Legends needed the Draven run to be a huge juggernaut in gaming.

I know "better than Draven" is a low bar, but 2015 managed to clear that one.

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FBike1
06/14/22 10:35:52 PM
#21:


It wasn't just the rallies that ruined CBIX, it was the large number of LFFs/blowouts and the subpar bracket design. The rallies were just the icing on the cake.
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plasmabeam
06/15/22 10:04:18 AM
#22:


LeonhartFour posted...
Eh, I just feel like most of us have very few fond memories of CBIX. That wasn't all Draven, but it had a lot to do with it. Rallies aren't going to give these contests new life or revive the site, and they don't make things more unpredictable because CBX had plenty of surprises.

That's a good point.

_SecretSquirrel posted...
I really would have loved to have seen the winner of Chrono Trigger vs. Pokemon RBY against Ocarina of Time directly in that small window of time post-Wii U, but pre-BotW. If there was ever a time that GameFAQs would, on its own, choose another game over Ocarina, it would have been in that window of time that has long since closed.

Ocarina likely would've SFF'd Pokemon RBY (barring any major Pokemon rallies, of course). I know RBY destroyed Mario 3, but RBY/Ocarina are from the from the same era/year, and that makes a difference. That said, if RBY/OoT met in the final, you could potentially have a Majora/Brawl situation where Pokemon rides its momentum and "good vs. evil" narrative to a close victory.

Ocarina vs. CT would've been interesting. 3D vs. 2D, Nintendo vs. Square, N64 vs. SNES, Sprites vs. Polygons, Zelda vs. JRPGs, etc. CT could've potentially been another "good vs. evil" candidate by the time it reached the final.

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plasmabeam
06/15/22 10:27:43 AM
#23:


It still baffles me that, in 20 years of contests, we've only had two 1v1 Best Game Ever contests. Worse yet, the first one suffered from a flawed nomination process and bracket setup. And if you believe Undertale spoiled the second one, then the BGE contests never even approached their potential.

It's a shame because GotD1 was probably our best contest from an enjoyment standpoint. Strong contenders, no clear-cut favorite, tight matches, dramatic later rounds, the last two matches being decided by <1%, Majora as the unlikely champion, I could go on and on.

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LinkMarioSamus
06/15/22 11:17:53 AM
#24:


I still think Majora's Mask won 2010 on its own strength with maybe a slight bandwagon at best, not that it suddenly got loads of strength out of nowhere. It swatted aside Pokemon GSC, Wind Waker, and especially Metal Gear Solid 3 like they were nothing. Do not bring up Super Metroid in 2015. Super Metroid is just that good.

Also remember that Draven and Undertale had to be against weak(ish?) competition in Round 1 to go anywhere.

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charmander6000
06/15/22 11:27:43 AM
#25:


I would love to see some kind of "50 years of gaming" contest to be held at the end of the year to celebrate the 50th anniversary of Pong/the start of the video game industry.

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ctesjbuvf
06/15/22 11:35:31 AM
#26:


Majora's Mask reaches the semi-finals on its own strength, the last two matches probably not.

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charmander6000
06/15/22 11:49:08 AM
#27:


Based on its performance in the early rounds, any boost Majora's Mask saw in its final two matches was probably minimal. It's not like FFX or Brawl would've broke 60% against GSC, WW or MGS3

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Leonhart4
06/15/22 12:07:23 PM
#28:


Majora has validated its strength since GotD, but there was a definite "we can't let Brawl win this" sentiment going into the last matches that let it gain enough strength to win those last two matches.

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therealmnm
06/15/22 12:09:54 PM
#29:


The Ringer is doing a greatest Pixar character bracket this week if anyone is curious. They are already in the Sweet 16. Vote totals are mostly between 18000 and 20000. I'm just now reading the results of the first two rounds. Apparently there was already one first round barnburner between Jessie and Hamm from Toy Story (Jessie won by 20 votes!).
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charmander6000
06/15/22 12:43:24 PM
#30:


Leonhart4 posted...
Majora has validated its strength since GotD, but there was a definite "we can't let Brawl win this" sentiment going into the last matches that let it gain enough strength to win those last two matches.

True and that's reflective in Brawl vs. Fallout 3, but for something like Majora's Mask, most people who didn't want Brawl to win it all would have voted for Majora's Mask in a neutral match-up. Did it make a difference? Probably, but that's only because Brawl would have gotten around 52% at most so it wouldn't have taken much to tip the scales.

As for MM vs. FFX, considering what they got against MGS3 and RE4 respectively, two games which were essentially equals a year prior I don't think there was much change to the match. Obviously FFX could have won, but you can say the same thing to any 50/50 match.

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LinkMarioSamus
06/15/22 12:46:56 PM
#31:


For what it's worth when I was obsessively simulating matches using the GOTD x-stats I kept getting a nagging feeling Fallout 3's quarter and Shadow of the Colossus's eightpack were too high.

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LeonhartFour
06/15/22 12:49:19 PM
#32:


Well yeah, in the case of MM/FFX, it only takes a few hundred people deciding Majora has a better chance to beat Brawl to flip that result.

And the trends in Majora/Brawl seem to indicate there was a bandwagon of people just not wanting Brawl to win based on how hot of a start Majora got and how Brawl whittled away at the lead in the second half of the match once that momentum ran out. It may have simply been fueled by people who would have otherwise not voted, so I don't think you can just chalk it up to "they would've voted for Majora anyway."

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plasmabeam
06/15/22 12:53:10 PM
#33:


LinkMarioSamus posted...
I still think Majora's Mask won 2010 on its own strength with maybe a slight bandwagon at best, not that it suddenly got loads of strength out of nowhere. It swatted aside Pokemon GSC, Wind Waker, and especially Metal Gear Solid 3 like they were nothing. Do not bring up Super Metroid in 2015. Super Metroid is just that good.

I believe I had Majora losing to Wind Waker in my 2010 bracket. My logic was that Traditional Gamecube Zelda would defeat Non-Traditional Second-Fiddle N64 Zelda, and boy was I wrong. The MGS3 beatdown was especially surprising, although a Zelda > MGS outcome was expected at that stage of the bracket.

ctesjbuvf posted...
Majora's Mask reaches the semi-finals on its own strength, the last two matches probably not.

FFX was rightly favored to win the bottom half of the bracket. It was the dominant FF game of the 2000s, and there's no debate about that. If FFX and Majora met in Round 3-5, I believe FFX would've taken that match to the tune of 52-48. The late-game circumstances swung this match for Majora.

And Majora definitely needed the Brawl anti-votes in the final. Melee vs. Majora would've been a very different story if it happened.

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ctesjbuvf
06/15/22 1:58:56 PM
#34:


I knew it was heavily favored, basically everyone here had it in the final against a Smash game. Doesn't mean the difference is big. Things doesn't look very off if we don't adjust.

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AxemRedRanger
06/15/22 2:28:15 PM
#35:


While it wasn't massive, I remember 4chan was definitely putting in some work for Majora in the semifinals. Part of why Majora's Mask started off so hot in the finals was because there were a bunch of irregular rallied voters excited over the close end of the previous match who were then able to carry their rally over straight into the next one. A similar thing probably happened with Snake in the last two rounds of 2008.

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charmander6000
06/15/22 2:41:06 PM
#36:


Majora's Mask may have also benefited from rallying rollover against Brawl since the match happened right after.

Random thought: How poorly does Brawl (or Smash 4) perform today?

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LeonhartFour
06/15/22 2:58:46 PM
#37:


They'd do fine against anything that isn't a major Nintendo game, but I think they'd buckle under SFF pretty hard against a beloved title.

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Yesmar_
06/15/22 3:55:36 PM
#38:


Rallies aren't fun for me, because the main appeal to these contests is predicting things, and there's no way to predict them. It's like a mystery novel, or the plot twist in the movie. Of course, being surprised is fun, and I want to be surprised in these contests too, but a good plot twist is something that you could have seen coming, not something that feels random, and the same is true for rallies, to an extent. It's like when a book/movie reveals a killer and it's just some background character you know nothing about. It's unexpected, but the response is just "Oh, I guess."

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Mac Arrowny
06/15/22 3:55:56 PM
#39:


Sure, but it's more interesting to match them against non-Nintendo stuff. Like, how does Brawl handle FFIX or Persona 5?

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UltimaterializerX
06/15/22 4:01:54 PM
#40:


I can understand not liking some rallies, but I feel like the people who dislike them drop this when a character they root for is the winner.

Heres a good example - Solid Snake. If he were suddenly gigarallied like Draven was and beat Link as a result, I highly doubt most people would complain. Or, lets hypothetically say it was Commander Shepard in 2013 instead of Draven. Most of us love Mass Effect, right? Would anyone have complained if he had some miracle run and won a contest? Maybe, but it wouldnt come close to the vitriol the joke characters got. And thats always bugged me. Its like, you like them or you hate them. Dont pick and choose.

Hell, ZackFAQs itself kind of shows that we like the rallies and underdog runs when its a character we like <_<

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plasmabeam
06/15/22 4:11:46 PM
#41:


Mac Arrowny posted...
Sure, but it's more interesting to match them against non-Nintendo stuff. Like, how does Brawl handle FFIX or Persona 5?

Smash Wii U probably loses to both of those 45-55ish.

Brawl probably beats both or loses close.

The hierarchy is likely Ultimate > Melee > Brawl > 64 > Wii U > 3DS

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plasmabeam
06/15/22 4:13:26 PM
#42:


What was the logic behind Starcraft being in Division 128?

I mean, it released in 1998 and had an N64 port.

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Leonhart4
06/15/22 4:13:59 PM
#43:


Maybe one day a good thing will get rallied to win a contest and we'll find out

Also Ulti apparently makes zero distinction between bandwagons and rallies. Zack was not a rally. He benefitted from the format and an easy path.

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UltimaterializerX
06/15/22 4:15:01 PM
#44:


Snake came close like 4 times.

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UltimaterializerX
06/15/22 4:17:18 PM
#45:


I have always considered them the same, yeah. Oh well

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WarThaNemesis2
06/15/22 4:20:59 PM
#46:


2006 Snake vs. Samus was a choke for the ages.

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swirIdude
06/15/22 4:38:51 PM
#47:


plasmabeam posted...
What was the logic behind Starcraft being in Division 128?

I mean, it released in 1998 and had an N64 port.

CJayC saw into the future and knew it needed to be in Division 128 instead of fed to FF7.

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UltimaterializerX
06/15/22 4:39:59 PM
#48:


He considered the PC as a modern system, which sort of made sense but it screwed up noms hard.

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Leonhart4
06/15/22 4:57:33 PM
#49:


WarThaNemesis2 posted...
2006 Snake vs. Samus was a choke for the ages.

Or Samus was just stronger than we thought because of that weird match against Tifa.

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Yesmar_
06/15/22 4:59:17 PM
#50:


All of the Female 1 seeds did look crazy that year.

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