Board 8 > Star Wars and Pokemon Mafia Topic 13 - The Last Topic

(+) Yeah! (+)

I can't find anything in particular from topic 2 that looks like scum trying to find a lost member. This is the topic where it begins being mostly about Ben and Sheep defending themselves. Yeah, I wish I could say I found anything, but I didn't.

I'm also home now having done what irl things I needed to do today.

ctesjbuvf posted...

I can't find anything in particular from topic 2 that looks like scum trying to find a lost member. This is the topic where it begins being mostly about Ben and Sheep defending themselves. Yeah, I wish I could say I found anything, but I didn't.

I'm also home now having done what irl things I needed to do today.

Sorry about that, I was hyper that topic lol

Noted. On the surface, those seem to check out with what I recall of your general thoughts from those previous days. I initially had a question mark on MZero, but I recall you saying that you liked Abacus's posts all game.

I don't recall much of your thoughts on Isquen after chang's lynch, though, so I'll have to look more into that.

Isquen caught my attention over night when I was looking at the Sheep lynch and noticing how many people looked pretty good on it. I believe I brought this up at some point the next day while forcing Ulti to give me thoughts on his situation to get a better read on Ulti.

Kirby321 posted...

So your argument is that the scum kept doctor alive because they knew who Ulti would target and went after other people.

You're oversimplifying. I'm not saying they knew who he would target. I'm saying they felt confident enough in their kills to not off him first, which doesn't seem like that bad a play because Ulti was still a potential mislynch and he could have been another power role too.

Kirby321 posted...

1) How would scum have accurately predicted Ulti's targets? Do any of the scum flips -- Sheep, Ben, Isquen, Lea, and MZero -- know Ulti so well that they could've pinpointed who he would target? When Ulti revealed his night actions, I'm pretty sure everyone was baffled that he didn't protect Death and was insistent on protecting me. Speaking of Death...

Again, they don't need to accurately predict anything, they just need to think who's unlikely to be targeted. You also keep talking as if Ulti being doctor was certain to them. Death is the biggest risk in that period in that case, but it was on a night where Death wouldn't bring in a new scan.

Kirby321 posted...

2) If I'm not mistaken, Death was killed as soon as he claimed. Ulti was also killed as soon as he claimed. Do you think this is just a coincidence? If scum was trying to keep easy mislynch targets alive, why did Plum die? If scum knew Ulti would protect me, why wasn't a hard-to-mislynch target like Chris killed? Frankly, scum's killing patterns don't make sense, but they were consistent about killing the Cop and Doc as soon as they were revealed.

Obviously no coincidence no. At that point, they would be certain he was doctor and it was also pretty clear to anyone that he wasn't a likely myslynch target anymore. Of course that changes things.

Plum dying is weird no matter how you slice it. My best bet is that he was spot on about you.

I have never claimed scum knew Ulti would protect you, why would they know that? After Ulti said he had done that thrice in a row, there's no guarantee he would again. Killing Ulti that night sure seems like an insane gamble if you weren't scum though. That would mean they had been very lucky you didn't watch who was now the most obvious target.

I did not argue anything about bulletproof being a red herring. I said that it being a red herring was still more likely than two godfather's, but I have thought Chris was most likely town. Sbell said this a few times on his final day though, maybe that's what you're thinking of?

Finally, don't talk like I have said there's no way Chris is scum. I'm saying I find it less likely. If I was so certain about it I could just have voted right away, but one misvote today would make us lose. For what it's worth, some of your posts have seemed like you might have been trying to just get a vote to happen.

Kirby321 posted...

I do have a potential theory about why they used a redirect that night instead of poison. If I had watched Death that night, I would have seen Isquen poisoning him. So if later on there was a double-kill, I could make that connection that Death was visited by Isquen and later died.

This doesn't make sense to me considering you could have gotten the same of out watching him regardless of how they dealt with him. Pretty certain the flip said it would be public knowledge that anybody was poisoned. They still killed him regularly. I don't think it explains anything when they just needed to poison someone as it is basically as good as a mislynch in terms of numbers. Could've went for one of the two people he just confirmed town.

Ctes why do you phrase it as two godfathers being 'less likely'?

Because it was from a post where I was trying to explain to Abacus why I thought his vote on my wasn't a good call from what his perspective should be instead of just telling him I knew he was wrong.

Good answer.

Here's a loaded question. Why haven't you voted yet?

Kirby321 posted...

Okay, let's humor your "light side converted to the dark side" theory.

First off, what would be the incentive to switch sides? If scum looked like they were gonna win, sure, it makes sense to jump ship at that point.

And if the switching mechanism involves winning a gladiator duel... why on Earth would I use that switch on Day 3, after two scum with powerful roles (or at least in Sheep's case) were just lynched? Why wouldn't I wait to use it later when the odds of scum winning looked better?

Sure, we were wrong about the "easy solution" with Abacus, but that doesn't justify convoluted theories with no solid answers. Again, you could make a theory about Chris being scum and intentionally bussing Sheep and Ben to their deaths, then only killing off the rest of his team when he had no choice but to let them die. Yet you seem to be laser-focused on proving that my claims are the false ones here; you aren't concerned at all that Chris may have been lying to us the entire time. And that speaks millions about your intents today: appealing to a town Chris and using his doubts against me to seal the mislynch and get victory.

There are many uncertainties in this theory. Among them is if you were aware about it and if yes, if you had to do it or not. With or without that theory, you are still my best guess for scum today, but again, it's not like I'm concerned about the other side either.

DoomTheGyarados posted...

Good answer.

Here's a loaded question. Why haven't you voted yet?

I don't see myself voting as long as I feel like we're doing stuff. I'm still only two out of three topics into the last topic of day 1 doing what you asked me to earlier and who says it stops there. I'm not feeling certain enough that you wont instantly hammer and win if I voted Kirby, even though I've stated that I find him being scum the most likely scenario. I think you're town, but I'm playing as safe as possible becuase today we are losing if I'm wrong.

Thank you and please do continue.

Kirby, why haven't YOU voted?

ctesjbuvf posted...

You also keep talking as if Ulti being doctor was certain to them. Death is the biggest risk in that period in that case, but it was on a night where Death wouldn't bring in a new scan.

Because that has to be true for a scenario where I'm scum. Think about it. If I, the alleged Scum Watcher, chose to watch Chris N2, what would my objective be? Chris lead the lynch on two scum members. He would be an obvious nightkill target. Who would want to target him on the town side? Protection roles.

If Ulti wasn't a protection role of some sort, why would he have visited Chris? If I weren't initially a dumbass and thought Ulti had malicious intents, then the clear answer was that Ulti protected Chris. But perhaps it was a good thing I was aggressive toward Ulti at first, as the scum didn't seem to suspect him at all as Doctor until he claimed.

I'll concede that Ulti didn't exactly look very good, even after his Doctor claim when Sbell and I were on his tail. So yeah, he could've been a mislynch target. But with Sheep's poison gone and Isquen's back-up power gone, why risk keeping the doctor alive if they knew who he was? Even if he was a decent mislynch option, getting a kill blocked while their numbers were dwindling after Isquen's lynch would have been very, very bad. After all, scum's strongman options (i.e., the poisons) were gone going into N5 (a Star Wars night where Tracker Hb was getting permanently roleblocked), yet Sultan was the one killed instead of the one who scum should have reasonably known was Doctor.

ctesjbuvf posted...

Obviously no coincidence no. At that point, they would be certain he was doctor and it was also pretty clear to anyone that he wasn't a likely myslynch target anymore. Of course that changes things.

Plum dying is weird no matter how you slice it. My best bet is that he was spot on about you.

Plum backed off after I claimed Watcher. If I were scared about Plum being spot-on about me, I'd be far more worried about Chris thinking I was scum after the gladiator match. If you ask me, scum killed Plum because I was so sure about Plum being town. I mean, this was the case from Day 1, but if I knew somebody watched Chris (and if I were smart enough to realize from the get-go that the "somebody" was protection), would it not be unreasonable to assume it was somebody I wasn't willing to lynch? But there's no substantial proof for either of our theories anyway.

ctesjbuvf posted...

I have never claimed scum knew Ulti would protect you, why would they know that? After Ulti said he had done that thrice in a row, there's no guarantee he would again. Killing Ulti that night sure seems like an insane gamble if you weren't scum though. That would mean they had been very lucky you didn't watch who was now the most obvious target.

I bring up a counterpoint to your "killing Doctor is a risky gambit" argument: Doppelganger. I posited before that Lea was the one who killed Ulti, but in hindsight, after reading MZero's flip again, it is very much a good thing that I did not watch Ulti that night. It's obvious now that the plan was for MZero to impersonate somebody else, and if I watched Ulti, I wouldn't have seen MZero visiting him. I would've seen his Doppeltarget instead.

Killing Doctor was 100% risk-free there and was actually the ideal gambit for scum to make in that scenario if I had played smartly.

ctesjbuvf posted...

I did not argue anything about bulletproof being a red herring. I said that it being a red herring was still more likely than two godfather's, but I have thought Chris was most likely town. Sbell said this a few times on his final day though, maybe that's what you're thinking of?

Finally, don't talk like I have said there's no way Chris is scum. I'm saying I find it less likely. If I was so certain about it I could just have voted right away, but one misvote today would make us lose. For what it's worth, some of your posts have seemed like you might have been trying to just get a vote to happen.

You're not wrong. My whole third-party fakeclaim theatrics was to persuade scum to vote first. Not to hammer the game, but to vote for the scum instead and end the game. The odds of success were low, and if the remaining person was third-party, this gambit would have zero chance of working. Still thought it would be funny if it worked, though, and before the revelation of Serial Killer being required to kill happened, I figured it would be a decent gauge of whether the remaining foe was third-party or scum.

In any case, Chris has opened the floor to questions. If you think it's possible for Chris to be scum, then investigate. You are asserting that you don't think Chris is town for sure, but you have brought up nothing to support that claim. All you've said is, "Chris, if you're scum, this has been a master play from your end". Yet your theories about me being scum also require complicated and convoluted plans to play out just right. Especially, you know, claiming Watcher D3 if I had knowledge of Doppelganger's description and not expecting to get countered.

ctesjbuvf posted...

This doesn't make sense to me considering you could have gotten the same of out watching him regardless of how they dealt with him. Pretty certain the flip said it would be public knowledge that anybody was poisoned. They still killed him regularly. I don't think it explains anything when they just needed to poison someone as it is basically as good as a mislynch in terms of numbers. Could've went for one of the two people he just confirmed town.

Really, Death's death doesn't make much sense in general. Doctor protection should have been a threat. And even if MZero was the one who carried out the kill, why would they bother redirecting me if MZero could have framed somebody else? If Isquen poisoned Death and I saw him do it, that's a death sentence for Isquen. But then why would anybody besides MZero carry out the crime?

Frankly, I know I was redirected. I don't know why, but I know Isquen used his back-up ability on me to redirect to JC. Otherwise, why would I have any reason to target JC N4?

Topic 3 isn't much more useful. More than topic 2, it's Sheep and Ben being absolutely grilled that it's all about.

So ultimately, not much came from going through the topics like that. There's very little that doesn't feel like a huge stretch to me. Ben wanting people to claim Pokemon is the best bet, but I don't feel confident that's what it is at all. I feel like I'm sidetracking, argh.

ctesjbuvf posted...

Topic 3 isn't much more useful. More than topic 2, it's Sheep and Ben being absolutely grilled that it's all about.

So ultimately, not much came from going through the topics like that. There's very little that doesn't feel like a huge stretch to me. Ben wanting people to claim Pokemon is the best bet, but I don't feel confident that's what it is at all. I feel like I'm sidetracking, argh.

The type of conversion you are talking about is extremely rare. On top of that, Kirby who changed sides would have about negative four reasons to do so day 3 after days 1 and 2, wouldn't you agree?

Apologies if my replies are a bit slow. Currently in the middle of managing an online Smash tournament.

DoomTheGyarados posted...

Kirby, why haven't YOU voted?

I mean, I think my answer would be obvious. I am reasonably certain Ctes is scum, but I'm still wary of us being manipulated by you here, as I've stated multiple times. Nonetheless, I've played enough Mafia games to know that it's common sense not to vote early on a LyLo. Frankly, I've been the reason town has lost a few games in the past, either from being a townie voting early or a scum hammering on LyLo lol

Though I've never played a game with third-party, scum, and town all alive on the final day. I don't think there would have been any problem for town with scum placing down an early vote, hence why I thought I'd try the third-party fake claim. I mean, if scum votes early, only a foolish town would try to hammer on that, right? Not until everyone agrees to start voting.

Hmm, I've seen it handled in a number of ways. Sometimes people will snap vote and it works out. Rather bold of them. You say you are wary of manipulation. How would I be doing that?

Kirby321 posted...

Because that has to be true for a scenario where I'm scum. Think about it. If I, the alleged Scum Watcher, chose to watch Chris N2, what would my objective be? Chris lead the lynch on two scum members. He would be an obvious nightkill target. Who would want to target him on the town side? Protection roles.

If Ulti wasn't a protection role of some sort, why would he have visited Chris? If I weren't initially a dumbass and thought Ulti had malicious intents, then the clear answer was that Ulti protected Chris. But perhaps it was a good thing I was aggressive toward Ulti at first, as the scum didn't seem to suspect him at all as Doctor until he claimed.

I'll concede that Ulti didn't exactly look very good, even after his Doctor claim when Sbell and I were on his tail. So yeah, he could've been a mislynch target. But with Sheep's poison gone and Isquen's back-up power gone, why risk keeping the doctor alive if they knew who he was? Even if he was a decent mislynch option, getting a kill blocked while their numbers were dwindling after Isquen's lynch would have been very, very bad. After all, scum's strongman options (i.e., the poisons) were gone going into N5 (a Star Wars night where Tracker Hb was getting permanently roleblocked), yet Sultan was the one killed instead of the one who scum should have reasonably known was Doctor.

It absolutely doesn't have to be true. I get that it's the most obvious answer and you haven't been my first target at any point partially because it seemed unlikely, but now there are only the unlikely things left that we have to try and make sense of. Sultan wasn't that bad a kill either, he was also a tracker and had already targeted one of you, just not whoever sent the kills, which would probably be Isquen on odd nights early. Sultan was then killed as soon as kills couldn't go undetected on those nights any longer. I think a the scum dead down a few members early on took some chances here and really needed to avoid being scanned. It obviously paid off. Though if you're not scum, then they for some reason banked on you never hitting correctly for so long, which makes little sense to me.

Kirby321 posted...

Plum backed off after I claimed Watcher. If I were scared about Plum being spot-on about me, I'd be far more worried about Chris thinking I was scum after the gladiator match. If you ask me, scum killed Plum because I was so sure about Plum being town. I mean, this was the case from Day 1, but if I knew somebody watched Chris (and if I were smart enough to realize from the get-go that the "somebody" was protection), would it not be unreasonable to assume it was somebody I wasn't willing to lynch? But there's no substantial proof for either of our theories anyway.

Plum changed his vote to not risk it but sais he didn't think he was buying into it. Then said he was on the fence.

Kirby321 posted...

I bring up a counterpoint to your "killing Doctor is a risky gambit" argument: Doppelganger. I posited before that Lea was the one who killed Ulti, but in hindsight, after reading MZero's flip again, it is very much a good thing that I did not watch Ulti that night. It's obvious now that the plan was for MZero to impersonate somebody else, and if I watched Ulti, I wouldn't have seen MZero visiting him. I would've seen his Doppeltarget instead.

Killing Doctor was 100% risk-free there and was actually the ideal gambit for scum to make in that scenario if I had played smartly.

Yeah, I'll give you this one, I hadn't read that properly enough to realize it was also like that for the night kill. It doesn't really change too much but I agree MZero most likely sent in all the odd night kills.

Kirby321 posted...

In any case, Chris has opened the floor to questions. If you think it's possible for Chris to be scum, then investigate. You are asserting that you don't think Chris is town for sure, but you have brought up nothing to support that claim. All you've said is, "Chris, if you're scum, this has been a master play from your end". Yet your theories about me being scum also require complicated and convoluted plans to play out just right. Especially, you know, claiming Watcher D3 if I had knowledge of Doppelganger's description and not expecting to get countered.

Don't worry about me voting before I've considered both cases carefully. That last sentence is the best case you have, probably, though at that point scum was fully aware that there were two flavor scanners at least. It's a big reason I thought of alignment switch. That and how weird Anakin Skywalker as a prequel specific town role is.

Kirby321 posted...

Really, Death's death doesn't make much sense in general. Doctor protection should have been a threat. And even if MZero was the one who carried out the kill, why would they bother redirecting me if MZero could have framed somebody else? If Isquen poisoned Death and I saw him do it, that's a death sentence for Isquen. But then why would anybody besides MZero carry out the crime?

Frankly, I know I was redirected. I don't know why, but I know Isquen used his back-up ability on me to redirect to JC. Otherwise, why would I have any reason to target JC N4?

You're right that MZero most likely did this, I don't see why he wouldn't either. Watching JC as scum wouldn't be weird to me, he was a pretty obvious scan target at that point I think.

DoomTheGyarados posted...

The type of conversion you are talking about is extremely rare. On top of that, Kirby who changed sides would have about negative four reasons to do so day 3 after days 1 and 2, wouldn't you agree?

It's very rare, sure, you know that way better than me, but it makes some sense from a flavor perspective. If this theory is actually true, I don't think both Kirby knowing he could switch and having a choice are true.

Also no worries about reply speed, I am just here mulling things over. Frankly I don't sense any real heat from either of you, which adds a layer of complexity to this for me. It's why I am asking follow up questions so I can build a thought profile for both of you.

Although my sleep schedule is still kind of messy so I am going to be going to sleep for awhile soon.

I feel as if both of you are playing this final day very well. Which is one more player than I would have liked playing well the final day.

Kirby321 posted...

I am reasonably certain Ctes is scum, but I'm still wary of us being manipulated by you here, as I've stated multiple times.

Man after saying I was too sure you were scum, you say the exact same to me despite not playing much differently. Maybe I'm putting too much into the wording here.

If I had a gun to my head right now I vote Kirby. For one it is really hard to overcome the fact that Ctes' slot is scanned. That's a hurdle. Secondly Kirby has answers for everything but it is day ten of a very long game and as scum he would have a lot of help crafting these answers. The way he used both sides of his role this game were peculiar with the benefit of hindsight.

The thing today that has swayed me against him a little bit is the latest series of answers about me. I feel no heat from either of you. Like I don't think, from the bottom of my heart, I feel any genuine suspicion from either of you about me. Which makes sense with your words today as I am mostly a "I have two options and this one doesn't make any sense but fuck we're at end game so I have to be careful." I am experiencing that except much worse. One of you is being insincere with this internal conflict. It feels like you, Kirby, are forcing yourself a bit more with these answers. Would you say that there might be a town reason why I would read into you feeling forced with your words?

Anyway I need sleep I just wanted you both to chew on a little bit more of my thoughts.

ctesjbuvf posted...

Man after saying I was too sure you were scum, you say the exact same to me despite not playing much differently. Maybe I'm putting too much into the wording here.

I do not believe you are.

For the record, while claiming watcher day 3 three as scum does sound risky, it's also a point of the game where scum might have felt like they needed to take some risks.

Given MZero's role and I suppose Anakin's plotline, if my switch theory is actually right, it probably makes the most sense if Kirby was actively fighting against scum at some point and didn't know he would switch. I don't know, maybe I just made everything harder for myself by coming up with that.

Argh, maybe it's about time to try to look at the game thinking Chris is the scum and see how that looks. If I end up voting Kirby and it's wrong, I would hate to not have tried that.

ctesjbuvf posted...

For the record, while claiming watcher day 3 three as scum does sound risky, it's also a point of the game where scum might have felt like they needed to take some risks.

Given MZero's role and I suppose Anakin's plotline, if my switch theory is actually right, it probably makes the most sense if Kirby was actively fighting against scum at some point and didn't know he would switch. I don't know, maybe I just made everything harder for myself by coming up with that.

Argh, maybe it's about time to try to look at the game thinking Chris is the scum and see how that looks. If I end up voting Kirby and it's wrong, I would hate to not have tried that.

I do think scum were a bit haggard at that point yes.

I will be delighted to see what you uncover.

Before reading into any topics just thinking about it a bit.

If Chris is scum, he decided to basically kill some very strong scum roles, which is a huge pay to try to paint himself as the obvious town. His roles are also not something we've seen in action so either that's gone completely undetected or the scum team for some reason has it's 2/12 non-power roles on the same person, which seems unlikely. He also doesn't get Isquen to backup poison. Poison having gone off would likely have meant we would have lost the game at this point, which I find quite unlikely. Fellow scum member Ben then also decides to use his ability on a fellow scum member, which would then have to be part of the strategy. Otherwise he didn't use it, which I don't believe. I'm having a hard time seeing this being the play.

When I reread day 1 earlier I noticed that one of the first things Ben said was that he was sad he and Chris weren't scum together because he thought of a perhaps fake claim for them. This is one of the many interactions that I have a hard time seeing them puzzle together. I know very little about how they usually play, but man, that would be impressive. I also noticed Chris using Luke Skywalker as an example for flavor character lol.

Corrik was after Chris for two days striaght then gets night killed. That the reason? Good bet if Chris is indeed scum, it seems a bit random at this point right now unless I'm forgetting something from day 2. Chris is also the main reason behind chang's lynch on day 3, which if scum, would have given them another day as the next day Arti was getting lynched just like he seemed to be on day 3 if not for the push on chang.

Much later we see a bulletproof role flip. This role straight up has no function if Chris is not town which seems quite unlikely though not technically impossible of course. I'm finding it more likely that MZero's role had specifications that weren't relevant just to make sure there would be no questions and not hinting anything. The roles have been very specific in general.

I have a hard time thinking this is the more likely lynch candidate, but that doesn't mean I'm giving up on the thought (seems I have to stress that).

And by more likely lynch candidate I just mean more likely person that I'll end up voting for >_>

Let's try looking at roles of all our dead people, sorted into light side and dark side

IGCD - Charmandalorian, LIGHT SIDE Bodyguard/Vanilla
Corrik - Padm Amidalakazam, LIGHT SIDE Vanilla/Psychic
Chang - Ki-Adi Munna, LIGHT SIDE Vanilla/Vanilla
Masterplum - Surskit Fisto, LIGHT SIDE Vanilla/Vanilla
Arti - Pokdexter Jettser, LIGHT SIDE Vanilla/Flavor Cop
Death - Mace Windewgong - LIGHT SIDE Cop/Vanilla
Sultan - Tentacoola - LIGHT SIDE Prostitute/Vanilla\
Chaeix (JC) - Jar Carbink - LIGHT SIDE Hated Townie/Vanilla
Ulti - Mewtwo-D2 - LIGHT SIDE Doctor/Doctor
Red - Girafarigran Dan and the Modal Nodes - LIGHT SIDE Vanilla/Dumb Hider
SBell - Star Wartortle - LIGHT SIDE Vanilla/Vanilla
ViolentAbacus - X-Wingull - LIGHT SIDE Vanilla/Vanilla
Hbthebattle - Ahsoka Tanorith - LIGHT SIDE Tracker/Flavor Cop

Sheep - Venomoff Gideon, DARK SIDE Tracker/Poisoner
Ben - Professor Snoke, DARK SIDE Neighborizer/Redirector
Isquen - Sheevee - DARK SIDE Godfather Ninja/Backup
Lea - Wobobafett - DARK SIDE Bulletproof/Mirror
MZero - Dittobias Beckett - DARK SIDE Thief/Doppelganger

Then add to players to town and one to scum. 15 to 6 with a scum team that's loaded with good ability. This seems to me like a really tough job for town. If not for that extremely great start, this sure could have looked back quickly. Is something like 15-6 common, for a scum team with no or just 1 vanilla scum? This is part of the reason I considered Kirby was a role that wasn't necessarily ever scum and wouldn't know about it (and man does the character fit well). That just seems a bit more balanced to me, but I'm open to hearing I'm wrong because of my lack of experience.

DoomTheGyarados posted...

Hmm, I've seen it handled in a number of ways. Sometimes people will snap vote and it works out. Rather bold of them. You say you are wary of manipulation. How would I be doing that?

I don't think it's a particularly likely scenario, but latching on to Sheep and Ben and never letting them go would establish you as a very credible townie from the get-go, letting you avoid scans and absorbing protection as scum. Afterward, we never really lynched scum until it was plainly obvious they were scum (i.e., Isquen who was outed by Flavor Cop, Lea who was PoE'd down to being the liar between her and Red, and MZero who, again, was PoE'd by Lea's own bus). Though Lea is a bit of a stretch because the whole night plan was set up by you. Granted, Lea's role wasn't particularly useful, so sacrificing her to make yourself look good in preparation for the endgame could be a possibility.

Again, it's convoluted and relies on the scum team relying on you being so immaculate and town-like that nobody would even suspect you, even on the final day if it came down to it. I think it's a plausible theory, but not a likely one. You'd be crazy for going for a plan like this, but given your reputation, it is something you could pull off that nobody else could reasonably do. Hence why I've been encouraging Ctes to consider and present some arguments for you to be scum. If he wants town to win, then we shouldn't dismiss you as a possible mastermind. Not that either of us believe it's likely, but we'd be fools for handing this game to you on a silver platter.

DoomTheGyarados posted...

Would you say that there might be a town reason why I would read into you feeling forced with your words?

I mean, the evidence is clearly against me. You've expressed numerous times that you found my watches weird, other people have commented on my flavor being clearly not town-aligned, especially with a prominent lack of Darth Vader. You even outright said I was scum when I gladiated chang. You are already predisposed to the possibility of being scum, so it's natural you're more suspicious of my answers.

It's very easy to paint me as scum when the other options are: Chris, who has been considered town the entire game; and Ctes, who has the inno scan to his name and replaced Scare who had no presence at all this game. It's going to be natural to believe I'm scum when that might seem like an easier answer than "double godfather" even though I heavily disagree given how the night actions played out. Do you really believe Vengeful and Ghost are in the same setup? Two roles that punish Scum for killing townies?

In any case, I've made my arguments. I will continue to make arguments because I'm not gonna throw this game when we've gotten this far as town. Though I admit since I'm currently splitting my time between this and the tournament I'm managing, I'm probably going to mince my words here and there and not express my thoughts clearly. Nonetheless, unlike the other townies, I refuse to stay silent and just accept being lynched. Even if it's futile, I will continue to present my arguments until the very end of the day.

Tournament is over. I'm caught up, but I need to take time to eat and respond to what's been said so far.

But I am seeing this "alignment switch" nonsense popping up multiple times from Ctes, and I'm seriously tired of it. It's a ridiculous theory that banks on an insane amount of conditionals for it to be true. Look, I know that's hypocritical coming from the resident conspiracy theorist, but there's a limit to how deep the rabbit hole runs just to fit a narrative.

Chris, I understand you don't like my answers. Fine, whatever. I won't claim to be an orator, and my emotionally-driven mindset tends to make my tone swing all over the place. But do you seriously believe that I used to be a townie, did something unknowingly, and woke up as a scum outta nowhere? Do you not think it's telling that you asked Ctes to review all of Day 1 for my interactions with scum, and best he could up with is how it all supports his own crazy theory? It's because it's bogus.

I can't believe you have the gall to say my defenses "take equal or less hand waving as 'two godfathers'" like are you kidding me. Tell me why I saw Ulti visit you and didn't kill him if I were scum. Tell me why that's simpler than Ctes being scanned Godfather. Tell me why Isquen didn't use poison or used a redirect on someone else or didn't use his back-up at all if I were lying about being redirected to JC. Tell me why I, as scum, would target JC despite the two flavor scanners already outing themselves, especially knowing that I claimed Watcher and didn't counter-claimed despite knowing scum had a Doppleganger, even though Sheep was killed for getting counter-claimed by the actual Tracker. Tell me why these theories are simpler to explain than two Godfathers being in the game.

You say you had answers to all of this, and I want to hear them now.

Let's be fair, what scenario doesn't bank on an insane on a lot of conditionals to be true. We're on day 10 of this game, it's hard to find a scenario that fits perfectly the whole way through.

Kirby321 posted...

Do you not think it's telling that you asked Ctes to review all of Day 1 for my interactions with scum, and best he could up with is how it all supports his own crazy theory? It's because it's bogus.

What? I was trying to see if there was anything indicating scum trying to search for them and I found close to nothing indicating that. I literally said "There's very little that doesn't feel like a huge stretch to me. Ben wanting people to claim Pokemon is the best bet, but I don't feel confident that's what it is at all."

I think I'll sheep earlier today, but I'll be here all day tomorrow from whenever I wake up so don't hesitate asking questions. Hopefully with a fresh mind. Whichever one of of you is scum sure have made it seem unlikely, I'm having a stressful but very fun final day lol.

Lol, danish auto correct changed sleep to sheep.

Aight, I'm no longer hangry. ... But I did accidentally backspace entire my response while typing on my phone fml

ctesjbuvf posted...

It absolutely doesn't have to be true. I get that it's the most obvious answer and you haven't been my first target at any point partially because it seemed unlikely, but now there are only the unlikely things left that we have to try and make sense of. Sultan wasn't that bad a kill either, he was also a tracker and had already targeted one of you, just not whoever sent the kills, which would probably be Isquen on odd nights early. Sultan was then killed as soon as kills couldn't go undetected on those nights any longer. I think a the scum dead down a few members early on took some chances here and really needed to avoid being scanned. It obviously paid off. Though if you're not scum, then they for some reason banked on you never hitting correctly for so long, which makes little sense to me.

Regarding that last point, you already acknowledge Doppelganger later on, so I'll talk more about that later.

I agree Sultan wasn't a bad kill. He was a threat, but more threatening than a Doc who could stop the kill? I don't think I agree with that. Let's consider that Sultan died while Lea and MZero were alive. There's a third scum member, but we know nothing about them. Sultan scanned Lea and saw no movement. If anything, that helped Lea more than it hurt, as she was allowed to live for so long.

But consider that Sultan can't scan who that person visited and how many people they visited. We know from Hb's recovered scans that MZero both role thief'd him and killed Red, which is info Sultan couldn't have told. If the other scum members were stationary except for MZero, MZero could take two actions without any threat, though MZero would've needed a good fakeclaim to cover his tracks. Lea had nothing to worry about. The other scum may have needed to be worried about it, but the point is that the odds of Sultan pinning a scum that moved is far lower than him exposing other town roles, especially since Sultan had absolutely no hesitation about reporting his scans.

If you ask me, Sultan died because he was the next best option rather than gambling on who is the Doctor, and whether they even exist on Star Wars nights. But in any case, we're clearly opinionated on this matter. It's speculation, but I don't think this point of discussion is conclusive.

ctesjbuvf posted...

Plum changed his vote to not risk it but sais he didn't think he was buying into it. Then said he was on the fence.

Looking back, this is true. But on the page before, Plum also said this:

I wrote up a post voting Kirby, but I honestly can't see a way kirby is scum and Chang is town.

Its probably most pragmatic to just stay the course

Plum could have been convinced. Even then, he was on my tail since Day 1. Why would I have suddenly been afraid of him N3 if I wasn't before? Just because he mentioned a theory about getting bonuses from gladiating?

ctesjbuvf posted...

Yeah, I'll give you this one, I hadn't read that properly enough to realize it was also like that for the night kill. It doesn't really change too much but I agree MZero most likely sent in all the odd night kills.

Okay, so we both agree that MZero likely sent in all the Pokmon night kills. Now, consider this. If I'm Scum Watcher...

What's the point of sending in MZero to do the kills? Let's think about this. If I'm scum, and nobody counter-claimed my Watcher claim, it's reasonable to assume there's no Watcher. However, there were two claimed Flavor Cops.

But if we look at the Doppelganger role, we see this statement: "If a player targets you directly, you will be shown in their result as your actual self." This means that MZero would have shown up as Ditto to Hb and Arti, no matter who he disguised as (and this is a revelation I had just now realized).

By D7, nobody claimed Cop for Pokmon side, despite theoretically having three scans by that point. The odds of that happening are very slim. By D7, it would have been reasonable to assume that (if I were scum) the only Town investigative roles were two measly Flavor Cops. But those break through Doppelganger, so what's the purpose of the Doppelganger otherwise?

In other words, my role has to be opposed to MZero's in order to make sense. This is the same argument used to justify Vengeful Chris with respect to Bulletproof Lea. Doppelganger doesn't counter Flavor Cop or regular Cop. It counters Watcher.

ctesjbuvf posted...

You're right that MZero most likely did this, I don't see why he wouldn't either. Watching JC as scum wouldn't be weird to me, he was a pretty obvious scan target at that point I think.

Sure, but we already knew who the two Flavor Cops were. One of them died just before that night. But let's suppose I targeted JC with the intent of revealing more scanners. Why would I then claim I intended to scan Red and then say I was redirected, clueing the town in to the existence of a back-up and that he used his redirect on me? Granted, Isquen was screwed right from the start that day, but I didn't have a reason to say that I had intended to watch Red of all people as scum. Death would've been a smarter and safer choice by far if the intent was to fake.

ctesjbuvf posted...

Let's be fair, what scenario doesn't bank on an insane on a lot of conditionals to be true. We're on day 10 of this game, it's hard to find a scenario that fits perfectly the whole way through.

Counterpoint: You being a second Star Wars Godfather would explain why Death scanned you innocent.

Bam. Just found a scenario that checks out and only banks on that single premise. Doesn't require an alignment change, nor does it require Chris the God of Death to sacrifice his teammates like lambs to slaughter.

Really, before you replaced in for Scare, the "Scare is Godfather" theory was quite popular. It was brushed aside when Isquen was revealed as Ninja-Godfather, but some still held on to the theory given that Town had two Flavor Cops.

Granted, it does feel a little too simple. Which is why I'm still faintly considering Chris, and I am especially curious to see his response to the things we discussed about him.

Also,

ctesjbuvf posted...

What? I was trying to see if there was anything indicating scum trying to search for them and I found close to nothing indicating that. I literally said "There's very little that doesn't feel like a huge stretch to me. Ben wanting people to claim Pokemon is the best bet, but I don't feel confident that's what it is at all."

Fair point. I misunderstood Chris's post without context. What I saw:

DoomTheGyarados posted...

Ctes, here's an exercise for you. Can you review day one and tell me what you think of Kirby's day one interactions with the rest of the scum team?

Context that I forgot about:

DoomTheGyarados posted...

So that I understand your current theory is that Kirby is some sort of "lost" mafia member that does not communicate with the team until an action is done? If so a scum member should have been searching for them to low key communicate.

Naps are wonderful. Energy levels: restored!

Regarding Ctes 75 one of the things I find interesting about the Ben Neighbor situation is day 2 scare was defending Ben and one of the defenses for Ben was that if he was scum neighbor that he would have targeted Scare himself. This becomes an interesting thought process if you consider that Scare is Ben's buddy trying to defend his redirector from my wrath. At that juncture Ben wasn't scanned or anything, it was purely me burying him in the latter half of day 2. I planned it that way to give scum time to scurry around and make connections. This would be one such connection.

Corrik was after Chris for two days striaght then gets night killed. That the reason? Good bet if Chris is indeed scum, it seems a bit random at this point right now unless I'm forgetting something from day 2. Chris is also the main reason behind chang's lynch on day 3, which if scum, would have given them another day as the next day Arti was getting lynched just like he seemed to be on day 3 if not for the push on chang.

One of the interesting things about this is if you know Corrik you know he wasn't actually suspecting me at all. He kept saying I was scum but by day 2 he was largely echoing a lot of the things I was saying. Corrik is very rebellious as a spirit and he can't submit to another person ever, it's just against his nature. Note that he kept calling me scum and that I was going to lead the town to ruin in the middle of me beating the ever living shit out of Ben and Sheep. Not that you have to believe my version of events of course, but Corrik was being highly performative with me. I even told people end of day 2 that if I died to trust corrik as he was playing a nuanced game, hardly the line of a scum who is afraid that if he is credible I might be suspected.

In fact that Corrik kill was really bad too. I guess one of the things that neither of you would know as a fact is that when I am scum night kills tend to be brutally good. It's probably my best scum aspect. Also another thing to consider is if I am scum the bodyguard died n1. So I as scum either shot chris fanboy igcd directly because I don't like people who will sheep me (especially when I just skinned a sheep) or I shot HB directly when he had just claimed tracker or I shot someone else that wasn't the two obvious save targets (I can't shoot myself after all) and IGCD by random coincidence also decided not to save the one of the two obvious save targets and happened to pick right.

Also Day 2 you had Ben assuming that IGCD saved me and Isquen muttering about "the smart bodyguard would have saved HB." Ben is crafty but Isquen is a newer player. I directly read Isquen muttering that a smart protection would have saved HB to mean they did indeed try to kill me night one.

It's very easy to paint me as scum when the other options are: Chris, who has been considered town the entire game; and Ctes, who has the inno scan to his name and replaced Scare who had no presence at all this game. It's going to be natural to believe I'm scum when that might seem like an easier answer than "double godfather" even though I heavily disagree given how the night actions played out. Do you really believe Vengeful and Ghost are in the same setup? Two roles that punish Scum for killing townies?

Hmm, I don't like this from you because it isn't true! I started the day by telling you I would have shot ctes last night so this feels like you are playing victim a bit, you know? This, to me, feels manipulative. I have been nothing short of open to any discussions anyone has brought to me and broken them down earnestly.

As for roles. I don't think at the level of possibility that I am currently dealing with that Ghost and Vengeful punish scum enough to be considered busted. First off if he is 'Ghost' it doesn't really matter that much in the context of his role. It's not like he is a scanner on the other night or anything. It's a fairly unique role but it isn't a big deal. As for mine, it's basically a stupider vig in that I need to die to use it. Giving town one killing power compared to a possible two killing power from scum (with double poison) just makes sense.

I can't believe you have the gall to say my defenses "take equal or less hand waving as 'two godfathers'" like are you kidding me. Tell me why I saw Ulti visit you and didn't kill him if I were scum. Tell me why that's simpler than Ctes being scanned Godfather. Tell me why Isquen didn't use poison or used a redirect on someone else or didn't use his back-up at all if I were lying about being redirected to JC. Tell me why I, as scum, would target JC despite the two flavor scanners already outing themselves, especially knowing that I claimed Watcher and didn't counter-claimed despite knowing scum had a Doppleganger, even though Sheep was killed for getting counter-claimed by the actual Tracker. Tell me why these theories are simpler to explain than two Godfathers being in the game.

You say you had answers to all of this, and I want to hear them now.

I have the gall for a lot of things you will find.

So for the Ulti answer all you need to do is look at the game state of the game prior to his claim day 6 (note: he wanted to claim sooner but I kept denying him the opportunity, effectively keeping the doctor safe for a lot longer. Speaking of how scum Chris handles things the book on me is complicated but one of the chapters is I like forcing claims as both alignments generally which is why this game is very high on my town percentile tier list because I decided to be a jerk to the scum team this game and deny information hard. It mostly worked out so far!)

Anyway Ulti wasn't doing much to be helpful and he was very suspected, even with his flavor scan. In fact speaking of people scum Chris who fears evil big bad Corrik would kill, Ulti was saying I was scum for several days and I contently rolled my eyes and patted him on the head. Which further disarms corrik being a chris night kill when Ulti was a lot pushier about it and also had a flavor scan going in his favor and also I had the power to get that claim from him at any time considering he was so horny to claim.

So the answer to why someone who knew Ulti had a night action but didn't kill him could be several things. One, Ulti had expressed suspicion of me as early as day 2 so it could have been reasonable to think ulti was't protection but some sort of scanner. In hindsight we know that's wrong but also day 3 it was revealed Mewtwo was his pokemon. Does scum immediately think "Ah mewtwo, protection role then!" or do they look at the fact that ulti expressed suspicion of me and think "well he could be a lot of different roles." There is, to me, a very clear and understandable path why a scum team with that information could decide to leave Ulti be. That doesn't mean it has to be true, it isn't the only reality that exists, but it is a vibrant and easily understood one.

Next let's move onto 'Simpler than Ctes being scanned Godfather'

Sure. Although if I said 'simpler' I may have been pushing the definition of that word. Let's talk about what Godfather is countering in this game. A single Cop. Now let's look at what Two Flavor Cops for town was countering on the scum side. Not only Ditto who could mess with their scans very badly but also a scum who would roleblock them any time they tried to check in on them. Having two innocent scanning mafia members for one town cop isn't the same level of care as the situation with the flavor cops and scum's way to counteract that. That feels very different, which shouldn't be the case in within the same game.

Isquen not using the poison or redirect is actually very obvious. In the position they were in at that juncture it makes all of the sense of the world to hold onto poison until later on and try to screw town with it late. By the numbers they had pretty good odds of having at least two ways of confounding the flavor cop every single night. It was a bit of bad luck for scum that Isquen was so inexperienced that he fell under suspicion so heavily (Which by the way before arti I was pushing Isquen quite a bit early day 4 and HB scanned him night 4, we'll add that to my list of 'why the fuck would scum chris do this to his godfather/backup) and ended up dead. So the answer here is 'scum felt like they were in a bad spot and wanted to hoard power.' Which is easily believable to me but again doesn't have to be true. Maybe they just valued redirect more for some reason, you're telling the truth, and I should be voting ctes. It's a baffling decision in my view though if that's true, but also hey I spent a lot of this game punking the scum team so maybe they were whacky. For sure a possibility.

... Also why did they kill death night 4 when they still had an unscanned godfather. That's actually a point in your favor, HB. Killing Death night 4 makes much more sense if scare was godfather and they felt like death had done them enough of a solid and they wanted to remove him. Scum has much higher equity this game if isquen managed to be scanned innocent.

If you are scum you had a plan. By the time you posted day 5 Isquen was super dead and so you saw an opportunity to 'confirm' yourself by mentioning that you were redirected. I believe my response to you being redirected was, ah yes, "Kirby I am omega levels of concerned." It would have been one thing if we didn't know Isquen was cooked at that point, but by the time you claimed redirected your potential scumbuddy was cooked. Things were looking even worse now for the team. Risks have to be taken and frankly if you are scum those risks have paid off very well for you. You can't sit here and say it is a foolish theory because if it is right you are a hair's breath from winning a game that started off miserably for scum so yes, I have the gall to give these plays their due consideration. Every time, Kirby. I always have the gall.

As for your claim, by the time you claimed it you would have known that town had two flavor scanners. Having a scum role like Ditto counter 3 different people (the two scanners plus potential watcher) is actually kind of absurdly powerful. A single role just doing whatever the fuck it-

...

Why do you think they redirected you night four with Mzero's role in play? Sorry if this has been answered at some point.

As for this being simpler, fair enough it isn't. I actually , to be honest, could not give a fuck less about simple or not I am just concerned about right. In my mind's eye it takes a lot to impeach an innocent scan but it is possible and should be considered and I go back and forth. As I said, I have lost at end game before because I trusted a scan so believe me it is weighing heavily on my mind.

I hope this is satisfactory.

It was a thorough explanation, Chris. But I still have issues with it.

Let's start with your first point about Ulti.

DoomTheGyarados posted...

So the answer to why someone who knew Ulti had a night action but didn't kill him could be several things. One, Ulti had expressed suspicion of me as early as day 2 so it could have been reasonable to think ulti was't protection but some sort of scanner. In hindsight we know that's wrong but also day 3 it was revealed Mewtwo was his pokemon. Does scum immediately think "Ah mewtwo, protection role then!" or do they look at the fact that ulti expressed suspicion of me and think "well he could be a lot of different roles." There is, to me, a very clear and understandable path why a scum team with that information could decide to leave Ulti be.

Why would Ulti's suspicion of you lead to the conclusion that he was scanner? If he was a Cop, you would've scanned innocent, and Ulti would have no reason to suspect you unless you were Miller or he believe his first scan was Godfather. Scum knows you were innocent. This makes no sense.

If Ulti had tracked you, he'd have no reason to be suspicious of you because your role doesn't move. This, of course, the scum did not know, sure. But do you really think scum would suspect Ulti is a scanner and keep him alive? Frankly, Ulti visited you. If scum knew that, they knew that Ulti had a power role of some sort. Why keep him alive if he's a potential threat?

Also, who the hell sees Anorith and thinks "oh that's a Flavor Cop"? Who sees Professor Oak and thinks "Redirector"? I don't want to meta this too much since Han discouraged us from metaing PM flavor, but that Mewtwo argument is preposterous when scum knew about Professor Oak from the start and Anorith from D2.

Sure, fine, I can understand the "Ulti was an easy mislynch target" angle, but I don't get the rest of it.

DoomTheGyarados posted...

... Also why did they kill death night 4 when they still had an unscanned godfather. That's actually a point in your favor, HB. Killing Death night 4 makes much more sense if scare was godfather and they felt like death had done them enough of a solid and they wanted to remove him. Scum has much higher equity this game if isquen managed to be scanned innocent.

When is keeping the claimed Cop alive ever the right play as scum? Let's keep in mind that Cop's only job isn't to scan scum; they also scan townies. Hell, Sbell and Scare wouldn't have even been given the time of day if Death didn't scan them as town!

You really think Scum is gonna gamble on a 1/15 chance (or however many unscanned people were alive that night) just for the mere possibility of Isquen being scanned innocent? That's stupidly, stupidly risky. It's far likelier for the Cop to either: clear a mislynch target (exhibit A: Sbell and Scare, on the onset at least) or scan a scum member guilty.

DoomTheGyarados posted...

By the time you posted day 5 Isquen was super dead and so you saw an opportunity to 'confirm' yourself by mentioning that you were redirected. I believe my response to you being redirected was, ah yes, "Kirby I am omega levels of concerned." It would have been one thing if we didn't know Isquen was cooked at that point, but by the time you claimed redirected your potential scumbuddy was cooked. Things were looking even worse now for the team. Risks have to be taken and frankly if you are scum those risks have paid off very well for you.

That was indeed your response, but I took that as "Why did you attempt to scan Red?" In fact, let me quote you.

Okay well hider... can't die directly. So thinking they would die is odd

Then Kirby walks in here with saying he wanted to watch red... which is uhh

(Topic 10, Post #100)

This was only two posts after you gave your "omega levels of concerned" post. Perhaps this is misinterpretation, but it seemed you were more concerned about me trying to watch Red rather than the fact that I claimed I was redirected.

Otherwise, fine, I can see your point here. It was a poor coincidence that Hb posted immediately with his evidence on Isquen before I could even have a chance to talk about being redirected, and it just so happened that Isquen was the source of me being redirected. I can understand how that would look bad.

I'm making this it's own post just to emphasize that you have a very serious misunderstanding and flaw with your argument. That is, you are mistaken on how Doppelganger and Flavor Cop interact.

DoomTheGyarados posted...

Sure. Although if I said 'simpler' I may have been pushing the definition of that word. Let's talk about what Godfather is countering in this game. A single Cop. Now let's look at what Two Flavor Cops for town was countering on the scum side. Not only Ditto who could mess with their scans very badly but also a scum who would roleblock them any time they tried to check in on them. Having two innocent scanning mafia members for one town cop isn't the same level of care as the situation with the flavor cops and scum's way to counteract that.

I'm not sure what you're saying here. Are you asserting that Flavor Cop counters Ditto, or vice versa? Just to be clear, Flavor Cop counters Doppelganger, not the other way around. From MZero's role flip:

"You still scan as DARK SIDE. If a player witnesses you visiting someone, you will be revealed as your Doppeltarget. If a player targets you directly, you will be shown in their result as your actual self."

Arti and Hb would have to directly target MZero for a scan, right? Thus, MZero appears as his actual self and the flavor scanned would be MZero's Ditto. As such, Flavor Cop does NOT counter Doppelganger. Prove me wrong if I'm misinterpreting this.

You say Ditto could "mess with their scans very badly". Whose scans? The Flavor Cops bypass Doppelganger. Psychic might get fooled by Doppelganger, but it's a passive ability. Unless MZero felt like using mimicked powers on Corrik, Psychic does jack shit if the Doppelganger wants to kill the Psychic. Hider and Doctor dgaf about Doppelganger.

You know who does get affected by Doppelganger, though? Tracker and Watcher. Gee, I wonder where that Pokmon-sided Tracker is...

DoomTheGyarados posted...

Isquen not using the poison or redirect is actually very obvious. In the position they were in at that juncture it makes all of the sense of the world to hold onto poison until later on and try to screw town with it late. By the numbers they had pretty good odds of having at least two ways of confounding the flavor cop every single night. It was a bit of bad luck for scum that Isquen was so inexperienced that he fell under suspicion so heavily (Which by the way before arti I was pushing Isquen quite a bit early day 4 and HB scanned him night 4, we'll add that to my list of 'why the fuck would scum chris do this to his godfather/backup) and ended up dead. So the answer here is 'scum felt like they were in a bad spot and wanted to hoard power.' Which is easily believable to me but again doesn't have to be true. Maybe they just valued redirect more for some reason, you're telling the truth, and I should be voting ctes. It's a baffling decision in my view though if that's true, but also hey I spent a lot of this game punking the scum team so maybe they were whacky. For sure a possibility.

Correction: Only one way of confounding the Flavor Cop each night. And not even directly. Unless you want to count Isquen's back-up redirection.

Again, Doppelganger doesn't counter Flavor Cop. Hb and Arti would get the true flavor for MZero, not his Doppeltarget's flavor.

It's a nitpick, but your argument is that they weren't afraid of the Flavor Cops because they had options to deal with them, when realistically their only options at that point were Lea's passive role and Isquen's back-up. Though, you're probably right that they didn't expect Hb to scan Isquen by chance.

To address a point you made later in that post, truthfully, I really have no clue why on earth they redirected me if MZero the Ditto existed. I'll admit this is the one piece of the puzzle I am very much struggling to understand how it could have made any remote sense. To you guys, sure, I'll concede that the simple solution is that Isquen didn't use his back-up. I know for a fact that's not true, but it's my word against y'all's at this point.

Oh. I just plain ass misread that. Why the hell did they keep HB alive so long I am so confused lol. I think I read the role and was like 'well of course this makes sense he could hide from flavor cop during these nights so that's why hb lived for so long.'

Huh.

I just flat out headcanoned that, geesh.

I think I even made a post after his flip discussing it lmao.

Well that's a scum equity minus for sure.

(that's good for you)

Hm hm hm. So the role was more about getting to use a town's power and not about hiding outside of watcher. I wonder how that functioned for non-scans precisely. I suppose I will know soon enough.

My apologies Kirby, I straight up misread that this entire time because it made sense in my head.

DoomTheGyarados posted...

Hmm, I don't like this from you because it isn't true! I started the day by telling you I would have shot ctes last night so this feels like you are playing victim a bit, you know? This, to me, feels manipulative. I have been nothing short of open to any discussions anyone has brought to me and broken them down earnestly.

Man, you literally said in that same post I quoted that if you had a gun to your head that your vote would be on me. And part of your reasoning was that Ctes has a scan. Even though you said you would have shot Ctes last night. Do you really think I'm gonna take that well? That wasn't me being manipulative, that was me being annoyed, frustrated, irritated, whatever you want to call it.

You asked me if there be a town reason for why you think my words felt forced. And I gave you a very straight answer: the evidence is stacked against me, and if I didn't have Watcher to my name, I wouldn't have a platform to stand on right now. You've repeatedly gone back and forth on me the entire game. It's natural to see my actions and words in a naturally more scummy light.

DoomTheGyarados posted...

As for roles. I don't think at the level of possibility that I am currently dealing with that Ghost and Vengeful punish scum enough to be considered busted. First off if he is 'Ghost' it doesn't really matter that much in the context of his role. It's not like he is a scanner on the other night or anything. It's a fairly unique role but it isn't a big deal. As for mine, it's basically a stupider vig in that I need to die to use it. Giving town one killing power compared to a possible two killing power from scum (with double poison) just makes sense.

I mean, sure, I can see Vengeful being truthful, even if it's an extremely roundabout way to warrant Lea's Bulletproof. But in my old community, a role like Ghost would have been outright banned. Perhaps that's why I'm seeing it as a bigger red flag than you.

Almost as if the entire point of that post was to see your reaction.

In truth, the world Ctes is trying to build doesn't make a whole lot of sense. I get that he is in a rock and a hard place if he is indeed scum but I don't think he saw a path through me. For one if he attacked me he gets to have fun with me defending myself which is, you know, not the best and for two if he has been reading the game he knows you are more prone to errors of thought.

I kind of like those errors of thought to be town tells though, if I am being perfectly frank. I have been a little less than forthcoming to watch this play out and to see how you both engaged with each other as well as with me and the game as a whole but one of my great mafia regrets is all those years ago not listening to my instincts just because of a scan. I doubt I can let myself repeat that mistake.

So let's think about this.

They kept Kirby alive because he sucks as watcher and many people have been suspicious of him. If they could, in any way, impeach his watcher claim he doesn't look good.

But Scare spent a lot of time defending scum in his limited space too. It just wasn't an idle issue - He kept trying to get me to stop killing scum early.

No watcher claim, no innocent scan, who do I go for today? Who is an ideal partner for the 5 scum who have died? What makes more sense with the night kills? How the scum developed their strategy? The final 3? Is it coincidence that I have gone back and forth on kirby all game and now in the final moments it is me here to stand in judgment over him.

Has Kirby managed to allay my paranoia as scum every time for 10 days. Has that ever happened to me before? Even once? When is the last time someone was able to push my buttons correctly hm hm hm. It's been a very, very long time and I was not half the player I am now.

DoomTheGyarados posted...

Oh. I just plain ass misread that. Why the hell did they keep HB alive so long I am so confused lol. I think I read the role and was like 'well of course this makes sense he could hide from flavor cop during these nights so that's why hb lived for so long.'

I mean, Thief was a thing. Town had effectively zero tracking ability on Star Wars nights thanks to MZero perma-blocking Hb, and they could even get useful information based on who Hb tracked.

DoomTheGyarados posted...

Hm hm hm. So the role was more about getting to use a town's power and not about hiding outside of watcher. I wonder how that functioned for non-scans precisely. I suppose I will know soon enough.

So this was something I was wondering as well. The wording in the role flip is a bit confusing, mainly with the "immediately" knowing the power part. My best guess is that the Doppelganger chooses a target to impersonate, and then has to blindly pick a different target for the role ability without knowing what it is until they get the results back.

This could double as a flavor cop, as it explicitly mentions that MZero adopts their identity and power, but it only says that he would not know the power immediately, implying that he would know their identity at least.

Really puts into question what the heck the last scum member has as far as powers go when you've effectively got Role Cop + Flavor Cop rolled into one, along with a whole bunch of other abilities from the scum teammates. Not that this discussion seems productive, but I thought I'd throw my two cents in since Doppelganger seems to be a very non-traditional role.

Okay, ego time.

Kirby you aren't good enough to fool me here. I think our interactions were way too genuine since day one for you to be scum here. I think the way you talked to the different scum over the days was genuine and earnest. I think your failings this game have been earnest. I gave this a lot of due diligence and even made sure to sleep before crystalizing this but ctes is going to have to say something heroic when he wakes up to change me from this course.

Speaking as a friend rather than a player, I do think we should wrap this up earlier than the 7 PM EDT deadline tomorrow. I have no clue what the time zone is like over in Europe (I presume specifically Denmark), but given that it'll be a Sunday evening, let's not keep Ctes up too late lol

I imagine there will still be more that needs to be said before we can all comfortably cast our votes. We'll see tomorrow, and I'll be sure to keep my eye on this topic as soon as I wake up to keep discussion going so we can reasonably end earlier rather than later.

Sure. I have some errands to run tomorrow and I sometimes need to nap but I should be a lot of the time.

Got any further questions for me?

I am awake again, earlier than expected. I'm not doing anything for a couple of hours and it also won't be long.

Days end at 1am here. I appreciate the thought of ending at a time that suits me, but you don't have to think about it, it's not a problem playing until 1am.