Board 8 > Elden Ring Mafia Topic 11 - Ranni's Ruse

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Crescent-Moon
03/28/22 11:38:10 PM
#51:


It should go without saying that ending the day tonight is entirely premature.

I guess my feeling that everything felt too easy was right. We still have work to do today.

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changmas
03/28/22 11:39:57 PM
#52:


Crescent-Moon posted...
1. Sheep (Replaced Bat)
2. Ben
3. Changmas N1 N2
4. Chris (Replaced Ghetsis) N1 N2 x2
5. Corrik N1 N2
6. Crescent
7. IGCD
8. isquen N1 N2
9. Mzero N1
10. Red N1 N2
11. Sultan N1 N2

Scum: N1 x4, N2 x2
Marth: N2

Count:
11 N1s before factoring in indy
10 N2s before factoring in indy

IGCD claimed 9 actions each night.

Red running a scum gambit where Panthera never actually poisoned him at all remains possible (and would drop both back down to 10 pre-indy) but ridiculously unlikely.

The only other option is one of our power claims lied and only acted night 1, not night 2.

Barring the insane being scum scenario we may be back in the pre-Chris retraction scenario that IGCD being town clears all non-power claims.

Even if Chang is lying about being RBed and scum never used their RB night 2, it just makes that chasm even bigger, so that tinfoil makes no sense.

What other scenarios do we have?

shouldn't this be 10 and 9? this still has Chris acting both nights

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Crescent-Moon
03/28/22 11:40:01 PM
#53:


DoomTheGyarados posted...
it would also require red to be rber so his action + that wouldnt count. so we'd be at -1
This is true.

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Isquen
03/28/22 11:41:03 PM
#54:


Crescent-Moon posted...
What other scenarios do we have?
The one where a roleblocker doesn't exist, we just assume it does, IGCD is neutral/benevolent, and chang was lying the whole time.

The scenario where the messenger *is* scum and forbidden to tell allies upon threat of modkill (or ulti does a galaxybrain suicide to remove a vanilla and cast off suspicions.)

The scenario where IGCD is scum and just ballparks some numbers which... really doesn't look good for them.

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Crescent-Moon
03/28/22 11:41:47 PM
#55:


changmas posted...
1. Sheep (Replaced Bat)
2. Ben
3. Changmas N1 N2
4. Chris (Replaced Ghetsis) N1 N2 x2
5. Corrik N1 N2
6. Crescent
7. IGCD
8. isquen N1 N2
9. Mzero N1
10. Red N1 N2
11. Sultan N1 N2

Scum: N1 x4, N2 x2
Marth: N2

Count:
11 N1s before factoring in indy
10 N2s before factoring in indy
Yay old information chart

1. Sheep (Replaced Bat)
2. Ben
3. Changmas N1 N2
4. Chris (Replaced Ghetsis) N2
5. Corrik N1 N2
6. Crescent
7. IGCD
8. isquen N1 N2
9. Mzero N1
10. Red N1 N2
11. Sultan N1 N2

Scum: N1 x4, N2 x2
Marth: N2

Count:
10 N1s before factoring in possible indy
9 N2s before factoring in possible indy

1 number is off and the other is not.

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Isquen
03/28/22 11:41:49 PM
#56:


Crescent-Moon posted...
DoomTheGyarados posted...
it would also require red to be rber so his action + that wouldnt count. so we'd be at -1
This is true.

On the flip side, didn't IGCD mention actions *attempted,* not actions *resolved*?

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Crescent-Moon
03/28/22 11:42:32 PM
#57:


Isquen posted...
The one where a roleblocker doesn't exist, we just assume it does, IGCD is neutral/benevolent, and chang was lying the whole time.

The scenario where the messenger *is* scum and forbidden to tell allies upon threat of modkill (or ulti does a galaxybrain suicide to remove a vanilla and cast off suspicions.)

The scenario where IGCD is scum and just ballparks some numbers which... really doesn't look good for them.
If RB doesn't exist, Chang is mortally confirmed scum.

...And we still have the issue with the night actions being uneven, when IGCD claimed they were the same.

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Crescent-Moon
03/28/22 11:43:06 PM
#58:


Isquen posted...
On the flip side, didn't IGCD mention actions *attempted,* not actions *resolved*?
Which is why Chang's RBed claim counts for day 2, yes.

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Corrik7
03/28/22 11:43:31 PM
#59:


I thought we had it at 10/10. How did we get an uneven number again.

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red13n
03/28/22 11:44:28 PM
#60:


Mzero required activation apparently

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Corrik7
03/28/22 11:44:44 PM
#61:


Oh cuz you already added in mzero durr

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Crescent-Moon
03/28/22 11:44:54 PM
#62:


Corrik7 posted...
I thought we had it at 10/10. How did we get an uneven number again.
Because MZero just claimed a night action day 1.

And we're trying to find how to resolve this. If IGCD is town, it means someone who claimed to act both nights only acted night 1.

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Corrik7
03/28/22 11:45:52 PM
#63:


Wouldn't it have to be red who only seemed to maybe have information on me? Like what did he do the other night.

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changmas
03/28/22 11:46:00 PM
#64:


Crescent-Moon posted...
Because MZero just claimed a night action day 1.

And we're trying to find how to resolve this. If IGCD is town, it means someone who claimed to act both nights only acted night 1.

shouldn't it mean they only acted night 2? right now we have one "extra" action on night 1

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Crescent-Moon
03/28/22 11:47:25 PM
#65:


changmas posted...
shouldn't it mean they only acted night 2? right now we have one "extra" action on night 1
That extra action night 1 can only be resolved by someone who acted night 1 and did not act night 2.

That's where the "extra" action is coming from.

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Corrik7
03/28/22 11:47:56 PM
#66:


Red roleblocker. Wasn't poisoned night 1. Don't @ me. Makes the shooting into unclaimeds less risky.

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changmas
03/28/22 11:48:05 PM
#67:


Crescent-Moon posted...
That extra action night 1 can only be resolved by someone who acted night 1 and did not act night 2.

That's where the "extra" action is coming from.

no, it's the opposite.

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Crescent-Moon
03/28/22 11:48:15 PM
#68:


Crescent-Moon posted...
That extra action night 1 can only be resolved by someone who acted night 1 and did not act night 2.

That's where the "extra" action is coming from.
Yet is claiming they acted both nights.

If Marth acted night 1, it would make this even worse, so he's out of consideration for this.

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Crescent-Moon
03/28/22 11:49:48 PM
#69:


Corrik7 posted...
Red roleblocker. Wasn't poisoned night 1. Don't @ me. Makes the shooting into unclaimeds less risky.
Red being RB and Panthera never acting at all puts us at 8/8

Message writer makes if it counts separately.

This crazy scenario actually fits perfectly.

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Corrik7
03/28/22 11:50:02 PM
#70:


changmas posted...
no, it's the opposite.
Chang you targeted Sultan when roleblocked?

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Crescent-Moon
03/28/22 11:50:07 PM
#71:


Makes 9 what the hell happened to my 9

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changmas
03/28/22 11:51:22 PM
#72:


Corrik7 posted...
Chang you targeted Sultan when roleblocked?

yes

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Crescent-Moon
03/28/22 11:51:59 PM
#73:


Though I do find it a bit odd that we've kind of just.. Totally ignored the message writer in the grand scheme of things. Unless they're the observer itself, wouldn't they count as a submitted action?

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Corrik7
03/28/22 11:52:05 PM
#74:


Has anyone else targeted Sultan this game? Just curiosity here.

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changmas
03/28/22 11:53:18 PM
#75:


Corrik7 posted...
Has anyone else targeted Sultan this game? Just curiosity here.

are you suggesting when you visit him you get roleblocked?

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Crescent-Moon
03/28/22 11:53:35 PM
#76:


Just to go over the absurd Red is scum scenario:

1. Sheep (Replaced Bat)
2. Ben
3. Changmas N1 N2
4. Chris (Replaced Ghetsis) N2
5. Corrik N1 N2
6. Crescent
7. IGCD
8. isquen N1 N2
9. Mzero N1
10. Red N1 N2
11. Sultan N1 N2

Scum: N1 x2, N2 x2
Marth: N2

N1 actions: 8+message writer
N2 actions: 8+message writer

Good lord why does this fit so perfectly.

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Corrik7
03/28/22 11:54:06 PM
#77:


changmas posted...
are you suggesting when you visit him you get roleblocked?
Spitballing an idea that doesn't make much logical sense here.


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Corrik7
03/28/22 11:54:48 PM
#78:


What other stats exist besides strength and dex.


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MZero
03/28/22 11:55:10 PM
#79:


Crescent-Moon posted...
Just to go over the absurd Red is scum scenario:

1. Sheep (Replaced Bat)
2. Ben
3. Changmas N1 N2
4. Chris (Replaced Ghetsis) N2
5. Corrik N1 N2
6. Crescent
7. IGCD
8. isquen N1 N2
9. Mzero N1
10. Red N1 N2
11. Sultan N1 N2

Scum: N1 x2, N2 x2
Marth: N2

N1 actions: 8+message writer
N2 actions: 8+message writer

Good lord why does this fit so perfectly.

Shouldn't that be 9 night 2?

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Crescent-Moon
03/28/22 11:55:49 PM
#80:


MZero posted...
Shouldn't that be 9 night 2?
k thank you for talking me off that ledge

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Corrik7
03/28/22 11:56:21 PM
#81:


MZero posted...
Shouldn't that be 9 night 2?
It should be 1 scum night 2 red would be counted twice in that scenario if he is roleblocker.

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Crescent-Moon
03/28/22 11:56:59 PM
#82:


Corrik7 posted...
It should be 1 scum night 2 red would be counted twice in that scenario if he is roleblocker.
Oh I didn't fix that part. I fixed night 1 only.

I knew it added up when I originally did it!

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changmas
03/28/22 11:57:04 PM
#83:


Corrik7 posted...
It should be 1 scum night 2 red would be counted twice in that scenario if he is roleblocker.

wouldn't the factional kill count separately from the roleblock?

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Crescent-Moon
03/28/22 11:57:43 PM
#84:


changmas posted...
wouldn't the factional kill count separately from the roleblock?
I included Red separately from scum because of the way my list was originally designed. I removed his actions from scum's night 1, but forgot to do it from their night 2.

It adds up perfectly when done right.

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Corrik7
03/28/22 11:57:50 PM
#85:


changmas posted...
wouldn't the factional kill count separately from the roleblock?
I am saying she adjusted the scum actions for red night 1 but not night 2. It adds up to 8/8 as she said.

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changmas
03/28/22 11:58:01 PM
#86:


Crescent-Moon posted...
I included Red separately from scum because of the way my list was originally designed. I removed his actions from scum's night 1, but forgot to do it from their night 2.

It adds up perfectly when done right.

ohhh i see

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Crescent-Moon
03/28/22 11:59:30 PM
#87:


Hi Chris I'm possibly going insane

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red13n
03/29/22 12:01:25 AM
#88:


Corrik7 posted...
Wouldn't it have to be red who only seemed to maybe have information on me? Like what did he do the other night.

Nope did a thing.

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Crescent-Moon
03/29/22 12:02:06 AM
#89:


The three options that I can see:

IGCD is scum
Red is scum
A different power claim is scum that didn't actually act both nights

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TheSultanOfSlam
03/29/22 12:02:59 AM
#90:


Im so confused mzero claims an action night 1 now yeah if mzero is going with IGCD after that.. that makes sense.

Mzero seems pretty over powered for town doesnt it?


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Crescent-Moon
03/29/22 12:03:43 AM
#91:


Corrik7 posted...
What other stats exist besides strength and dex.


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DoomTheGyarados
03/29/22 12:05:51 AM
#92:


Crescent-Moon posted...
Red being RB and Panthera never acting at all puts us at 8/8

Message writer makes if it counts separately.

This crazy scenario actually fits perfectly.

Hm.

Red time for you to full claim lol

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Crescent-Moon
03/29/22 12:06:05 AM
#93:


We're currently at 10/9 while still completely ignoring that the message person presumably makes it 11/10... unless that person is IGCD himself.

And he claimed 9/9

...What was the logic of voting for the vanillas when we had 10/10, again? It's all a blur to me.

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Crescent-Moon
03/29/22 12:06:51 AM
#94:


DoomTheGyarados posted...
Hm.

Red time for you to full claim lol

Crescent-Moon posted...
Hi Chris I'm possibly going insane


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Corrik7
03/29/22 12:07:40 AM
#95:


What if scum Sultan activated a power night 1 that made him untargetable.

Just spitballing this as an idea.

Night 1
Corrik
Red
Mzero
Isquen
Vote freeze
Poison
Scum activate roleblock
Scum kill
Chang

Night 2
Marth
Chris
Corrik
Red
Scum kill
Scum roleblock
Scum activate ????
Isquen
Chang

I guess it doesn't work unless Scum can do activate and roleblock and also chose to roleblock the bodyguard.

Ok nevermind.

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IfGodCouldDie
03/29/22 12:07:54 AM
#96:


Crescent-Moon posted...
We're currently at 10/9 while still completely ignoring that the message person presumably makes it 11/10... unless that person is IGCD himself.

And he claimed 9/9

...What was the logic of voting for the vanillas when we had 10/10, again? It's all a blur to me.
I'm definitely not the message writer.

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Corrik7
03/29/22 12:08:15 AM
#97:


TheSultanOfSlam posted...
Im so confused mzero claims an action night 1 now yeah if mzero is going with IGCD after that.. that makes sense.

Mzero seems pretty over powered for town doesnt it?
How? He chose a Night kill or a protection power.

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Corrik7
03/29/22 12:09:00 AM
#98:


Vig*

And I know I said untargetable but i realized it didn't work mid list and tried to resolve it with roleblock.

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Crescent-Moon
03/29/22 12:09:51 AM
#99:


Corrik7 posted...
What if scum Sultan activated a power night 1 that made him untargetable.

Just spitballing this as an idea.

Night 1
Corrik
Red
Mzero
Isquen
Vote freeze
Poison
Scum activate roleblock
Scum kill
Chang

Night 2
Marth
Chris
Corrik
Red
Scum kill
Scum roleblock
Scum activate ????
Isquen
Chang

I guess it doesn't work unless Scum can do activate and roleblock and also chose to roleblock the bodyguard.

Ok nevermind.
My first ever game had an untargetable roleblocker, but only the roleblock was an active action. I remember Dels trying to convince me it was insane, except I was right and was a critical vote on that lynch.

...But there's no way he'd be able to do both in a single night.

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Crescent-Moon
03/29/22 12:11:08 AM
#100:


Actually I think Chris specifically wanted to go after Sheep because he was the likeliest combination of 3P+Scum or something, but in hindsight the entire play for Sheep feels off unless I'm misremembering the exact reason.

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