Board 8 > Elden Ring Mafia Topic 9: Lake of Rot

(+) Yeah! (+)

Crescent-Moon posted...

Thought experiment: If I'm scum, I'm the last scum in the game, with a claim that's guaranteed to be lynched.

Do you think I'm still giving it any earnest effort if that's the case? I would consider it a waste of time to drag the game out.

Are we unanimously agreeing that the scum split is 4-1 or does the possibility exist that it is still 5/17

you guys are silly, knowing the total amount of night actions is fucking broken for solving lol

IfGodCouldDie posted...

Are we unanimously agreeing that the scum split is 4-1 or does the possibility exist that it is still 5/17

5 17 with 2 or 3 extra kills. Doubtful.

5/17 is possible but also that would have been me thinking the message writer was scum but given ulti's jump...

Corrik7 posted...

5 17 with 2 or 3 extra kills. Doubtful.

Yep.

imo the message writer should claim if they arent forbidden to. We're not lynching 3p when we are likely one scum away from winning.

Forbidden role claims are ick.

...So I'm assuming everyone *else* is reading back, too?

##vote: Chang

k I think this is the last scum. Change my mind.

DoomTheGyarados posted...

which makes ben the last scum ironically

I do have a question about this.

Why would Ben claim not third party if he's the last scum? That just drops him squarely into the POE.

...Actually it could be a desperation gamble from someone who knows they're an auto lynch by final 5 or 7 I just answered my own question nevermind.

my poe after reading ulti is ben/chang

DoomTheGyarados posted...

##vote: Chang

k I think this is the last scum. Change my mind.

The one thing Chang is particularly riding is there's no other claimed protection except for him and poison doc, which is already not a lot.

DoomTheGyarados posted...

my poe after reading ulti is ben/chang

I don't even need to iso Ulti to know it makes Sultan look even better I can say that much.

yeah once sultan claims we can narrow the game down completely I think

Crescent-Moon posted...

I don't even need to iso Ulti to know it makes Sultan look even better I can say that much.

if scum is 4/17 they are pretty weak

vote freezer is a meme, poison can be countered, vanilla and ?

And Sultan being town likely means that my 6 person town list 24 hours into day 1 had 0 scum on it so let's gooooooooo

DoomTheGyarados posted...

if scum is 4/17 they are pretty weak

vote freezer is a meme, poison can be countered, vanilla and ?

Vote freezer is like a crappy paralyzer that isn't an automatic wincon, but can serve the same purpose.

Remember that time in Jojo mafia I was scum "Last man standing", which meant once all my other scummates died I would gain every power possible. And then the game went along just like this one where all 4 of the scum were dead by Day 3 and I became the last scum standing and went on to win the game?

No relevance at all to this game of course!

DoomTheGyarados posted...

if scum is 4/17 they are pretty weak

vote freezer is a meme, poison can be countered, vanilla and ?

There is a chance it's roleblocker and scum did NOT think Marth was the poison doctor.

Devil's Advocate: Chang did say he targeted Sultan.

But he also said he targeted you night 1 and you obviously weren't RBed.

I did say I didnt believe Chang's role at all when he claimed it. His role is all he has going for him in my reads currently

PunishedBen posted...

I did say I didnt believe Chang's role at all when he claimed it. His role is all he has going for him in my reads currently

SBell getting dayvigged combined with his "stenograph" helped it out a lot.

I missed that he protected Sultan

Chang, you were aiming for a doctor then? Why Sultan?

You know, that checks out. A bodyguard would be one of the FIRST people to go if they played their cards right, which means chang is either scum or has failed at it tremendously.

Also sultan isn't clear in my eyes, even if I "omg you suck" in his general direction and countervote.

##vote: chang

Crescent-Moon posted...

There is a chance it's roleblocker and scum did NOT think Marth was the poison doctor.

Devil's Advocate: Chang did say he targeted Sultan.

Also on that note, who else had a strong protection read on Marth?

I actually thought it was rather obvious to the point where I'd have been tempted to outright townclear him just for claiming it.

Chang had a solid D1 and looks good for his claim + the SBell stuff. Gotta be honest, I don't think that's it.

The fact Marth gott shot in the first place surprised me because as scum I dont think I would have taken that risk aiming for a guy who said he would prove himself the next day. I was expecting Chris, Crescent, and maybe if I got real lucky myself, to be shot today. The fact Chang was aware they were aiming for Doc does not feel riight to me.

Crescent-Moon posted...

Also on that note, who else had a strong protection read on Marth?

I actually thought it was rather obvious to the point where I'd have been tempted to outright townclear him just for claiming it.

I thought for sure he was the message righter. Putting me in the jolly rancher tier, then saying "as a fellow jolly rancher, I dont think we should lynch Ben." I made a winky face back at him on that post indicating i thought he was what i was claiming to be.

Chris claimed he had a BP and you're an easy mislynch in the long term. I was expecting Crescent or maybe MZero to get shot. Marth was probably third choice but no chance in hell Sultan was getting killed last night.

PunishedBen posted...

The fact Marth gott shot in the first place surprised me because as scum I dont think I would have taken that risk aiming for a guy who said he would prove himself the next day. I was expecting Chris, Crescent, and maybe if I got real lucky myself, to be shot today. The fact Chang was aware they were aiming for Doc does not feel riight to me.

I was not surprised he was shot at all, only that he wasn't roleblocked.

Personal meta: If I've got an RB I kill+block Marth last night if I'm scum.

Sheep007 posted...

Chang had a solid D1 and looks good for his claim + the SBell stuff. Gotta be honest, I don't think that's it.

Remind me on the Sbell stuff.

##unvote

Oh, by the way, is "unkillable" a possible role? Because what the shit with Crescent still being alive, too, and yet I would've figured for sure something would've happened to me because of bringing that up. Maybe I'm just egotistical.

Sheep007 posted...

Chris claimed he had a BP and you're an easy mislynch in the long term. I was expecting Crescent or maybe MZero to get shot. Marth was probably third choice but no chance in hell Sultan was getting killed last night.

I can agree with this. Sultan was an overall bad target.

It's weird that he specifically treated Marth and Sultan as a 50/50.

Actually yeah fair enough Marth should probably be higher on that list given he claimed a confirmable power. I just consistently undervalue how important power is in these games seen as I never get it

I stand by my assertion that Sultan has no chance in hell of getting shot last night though

Isquen posted...

##unvote

Oh, by the way, is "unkillable" a possible role? Because what the shit with Crescent still being alive, too, and yet I would've figured for sure something would've happened to me because of bringing that up. Maybe I'm just egotistical.

Let me be frank.

Even if I was scum, I would not in any way consider you a threat to me. The fact that you live is completely null as to my alignment.

Crescent-Moon posted...

It's weird that he specifically treated Marth and Sultan as a 50/50.

Is "timing" meta frowned upon, too? Because the time between day start and Ulti jumping off a cliff (and chang responding, then going silent) also is suspect in my eyes (hence why I try to mention when I'm gone for a long period of time, unless I fall asleep.)

When did Marth claim cleanser? I never seen that yesterday

Corrik7 posted...

When did Marth claim cleanser? I never seen that yesterday

Marth spent two days touting how he hoped to confirm himself and gave off all sorts of protection vibes to me in the process.

He never actually claimed.

Isquen posted...

Is "timing" meta frowned upon, too? Because the time between day start and Ulti jumping off a cliff (and chang responding, then going silent) also is suspect in my eyes (hence why I try to mention when I'm gone for a long period of time, unless I fall asleep.)

I don't get what you mean. Plum said stop, meaning everyone had to stop posting. It was so fast I hadn't even posted yet.

PunishedBen posted...

Remind me on the Sbell stuff.

Ignore me, I genuinely do not know what I was thinking of reading back. I think Crescent unintentionally Mandela-effected me into thinking Chang really pushed SBell a couple posts before. Him being on SBell's case is just consistent with his townread of MZero and pretty hard to avoid as either alignment given that was one of the defining features of his game up to that point.

Marth was also just batshit obvious town the moment Panthera flipped, I would say.

When Marth asked day 1 what everyone thought of pamthera, did anyone respond to that?

Sheep007 posted...

Ignore me, I genuinely do not know what I was thinking of reading back. I think Crescent unintentionally Mandela-effected me into thinking Chang really pushed SBell a couple posts before. Him being on SBell's case is just consistent with his townread of MZero and pretty hard to avoid as either alignment given that was one of the defining features of his game up to that point.

The whole thing was that with SBell's flip and Chris' subsequent freeze, meant that for Chang to be scum, it meant either Chris was targeted by two scum night 1, or Chang lied about his target and hoped to get away with it.

PunishedBen posted...

When Marth asked day 1 what everyone thought of pamthera, did anyone respond to that?

I don't remember. Panthera was firmly in my blind spot day 1.

His lack of energy day 2 going into a claim I didn't buy at all was about it. I didn't even buy that he would've targeted me in the first place.

Crescent-Moon posted...

The whole thing was that with SBell's flip and Chris' subsequent freeze, meant that for Chang to be scum, it meant either Chris was targeted by two scum night 1, or Chang lied about his target and hoped to get away with it.

Ah. Yeah when giving everyone the benefit of the doubt it's something I can get behind. When everyone is up to scrutiny, maybe he just thought the chances he got tracked are low. Chris is pretty much who you HAVE to say you protected if you're a body guard claim

Crescent-Moon posted...

The whole thing was that with SBell's flip and Chris' subsequent freeze, meant that for Chang to be scum, it meant either Chris was targeted by two scum night 1, or Chang lied about his target and hoped to get away with it.

I'm guessing part of the train of thought here is that Chang probably doesn't want to claim he guarded Chris the same night he gets frozen.

gonna sleep now. Fuck daylight savings.

PunishedBen posted...

Ah. Yeah when giving everyone the benefit of the doubt it's something I can get behind. When everyone is up to scrutiny, maybe he just thought the chances he got tracked are low. Chris is pretty much who you HAVE to say you protected if you're a body guard claim

Also Chang hinted targeting Chris day 1 and would've had to plan ahead of time.

It's.. Ultimately circumstancials, I admit.

We're so ahead I'd probably prefer giving Chang another night and trying for Crescent today. But if we're doing that we shouldn't let the day go on too long

Sheep007 posted...

I'm guessing part of the train of thought here is that Chang probably doesn't want to claim he guarded Chris the same night he gets frozen.

gonna sleep now. Fuck daylight savings.

Chang hinted targeted Chris day 1 and claimed targeting him night 1.

This was after SBell already died though.

I'm all for everyone claiming too, it's just I really don't distrust any of the unclaimed except Corrik. Only he needs to today imo