Board 8 > Elden Ring Mafia Topic 9: Lake of Rot

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Corrik7
03/28/22 1:30:30 AM
#301:


changmas posted...
btw anybody wanna speculate a bit on setup?

What do we think here?
4 maf 13 town?
5 maf 12 town feels a bit strong to me.
4 maf 12 town 1 independent? seems like that could fit too


This post is still so scummy and literally out of nowhere. Why would anyone ever consider 4 mafia and 13 town as viable unless they have reason to assume 4 mafia. This post is astoundingly bad and almost confirmation of scum, but I will keep an open mind still in my re-read. Like, it's literally flabbergasting.

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Corrik7
03/28/22 1:32:13 AM
#302:


^sbell immediately calls him out for posting about this. It's almost a like bro what you doing thing to me. Crescent mentions how it doesn't even make sense for his initial scenario. Notice the impossible scenario is his first suggestion also.

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Corrik7
03/28/22 1:40:01 AM
#303:


Sbell also immediately jumps Sultan for mentioning indy. But sultans comment in context makes more sense. Changs was out of literal nowhere. Sultan was talking about how he had an indy role similar to what isquen was claiming. It almost seems serendipitous that this happens so sbell can recreate this attacking of indy talk again.

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Corrik7
03/28/22 1:42:18 AM
#304:


Ulti comes out much later to also call Sultan scum about the indy stuff. Sultan is looking town. Ulti ignores Chang on this front.

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Corrik7
03/28/22 1:45:25 AM
#305:


Panthera posted...
I'm not entirely sold on Chang (and it's a bit weird he got so much less scrutiny for his set up meta post that brought up possibly indy than Sultan did) but he's done some stuff I like. His call out on IGCD for really awkward buddying up to Crescent without actually doing anything was good. He hasn't felt super consequential but nothing else he's said has really stuck out poorly. My eternal friend Corrik says Chang hedges his bets on stuff a lot by nature so I can buy my original read might have been more a writing style thing than anything else.

I mean, does this look like a bunch of nothing. It's mostly just an aside to go off to Ben as being scum and use me as reasoning to do so.

Chang did mention a claim super early though. So there is that for him.

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Corrik7
03/28/22 1:48:13 AM
#306:


Crescent-Moon posted...
Alrighty let's gather some thoughts together.

Town leans of varying strengths:
Corrik
Death
Marth (though this has weakened a bit)
Red
Scare

Scum leans:
Isquen
Ulti

If you're not listed I don't have any noteworthy opinion of you at this present time.

Shoe popping in to ask me all of 1 question and answer none directed at him looks bad. I would say he's the first person off of those lists that I'd press.

Probably all town reads are town. Unless scum poisoned red expecting him to be cured and confirm as town while he uses Miller to cover for being scum.

Before you scoff at this idea, I am almost assuredly positive that red once had a scum teammate vig shot him in a game to confirm them as town and win the game on day 1.

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red13n
03/28/22 1:51:03 AM
#307:


Holy crap Corrik just claim so we can confirm you town.

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Corrik7
03/28/22 1:53:35 AM
#308:


Crescent-Moon posted...
By the way.

Isquen is continuing to attack everyone who says he might be scum.

...Except for Ulti.


Also, Ulti comes in hard on Chang at the end of this topic to the point it makes Chang look town, which is amazing considering what I posted above.

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Corrik7
03/28/22 2:04:33 AM
#309:


Corrik7 posted...
I have three working scenarios atm.

Chris scum
Ulti scum
Crescent scum

Chris scum makes Crescent town
Likely with igcd mattress and Chang scum

Ulti scum makes Chris town and mattress town

Crescent scum ulti town
Bunch of newbies scum and/or red

Maybe I should listen to myself. As soon as Chris joins, Ulti switches to endearing Chris from me. Again, he likely doesn't do it if both scum together.

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Isquen
03/28/22 2:05:56 AM
#310:


I'm liking the slow takes, honestly. And yes, I completely ignored Ulti, because I completely ignored half the people in the game or more on day 1.

Corrik7 posted...
Before you scoff at this idea, I am almost assuredly positive that red once had a scum teammate vig shot him in a game to confirm them as town and win the game on day 1.

I'm not scoffing, I had the same thought, and it's still a slim possibility, but it's there. Maybe I'm just tired, but wasn't there hintage about "don't visit me you'll die" to ward people off during day 1, also?

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Corrik7
03/28/22 2:06:34 AM
#311:


Through topic 3, and I am almost positive I know who the last scum is. Just gonna read the rest before I say who it is so I don't look foolish if something later contradicts it.

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red13n
03/28/22 2:27:11 AM
#312:


Corrik...

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Corrik7
03/28/22 2:29:30 AM
#313:


red13n posted...
Corrik...
You can wait for me to read the entire game to tell you I am not claiming or you can just accept it now. Your choice. On topic 6.

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red13n
03/28/22 2:36:35 AM
#314:


Or you could just claim.

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Isquen
03/28/22 2:48:15 AM
#315:


Whatever, I'm going to bed, and then the grind begins again. See y'all briefly in the morning, I hope.

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Corrik7
03/28/22 3:08:17 AM
#316:


Okay so... there wasn't much to quote after that as Scum got quiet besides a couple of Panth long posts.

Before sheep even replaces in and what happens after, I will get to...

It has become obvious that Shonen was the last scum. All throughout the game the other scum members basically ignore Shonens existence in the entire game. It is not until Sheep joined that I think that slot even gets mentioned by any of them and it's basically a small aside by Panth in a long post defending himself.

It is uncanny just how little he gets mentioned as the easiest person for them to mislynch. Mzero was right in his assessment when he called Shonen scum so I was glad around topic 5 to see he echoed my thoughts after topic 3.

So, the problem with sheep after he joins. One is his claim.

Sheep007 posted...
and yes, I'm the one who claimed the flavour correctly. Bat's phrasing was a little off

Now there is a problem here. Someone asked Shonen about his flavor when he posted it, and be doubled down on it with pretty specific language.

undefined posted...
I claimed dragon that attacks you with swords made of lightning, verbatim

This is topic 4 so this is again after I determined be was the last scum. But, verbatim is strong word usage and doesn't suggest he messed up.

Now beyond this. Sheep tried to lead the lynch off of Panth onto me, as I assessed scum would try to do. He also has made some half hearted attempts at reads that basically amounted to nothing. So he does nothing to swing this pendulum back from where I was day 3. If anything, he made it worse with the flavor.

Thus

##unvote
##vote: Sheep

Town Confirmed
Corrik
Mzero

Likely town
Chang
Chris
Crescent
Sultan
Isquen

Probably have to be Town
IGCD

Indy
Ben

5% chance at scum but probably Town
Red

95% chance scum
Sheep

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TheSultanOfSlam
03/28/22 8:19:15 AM
#317:


Only arguments against sheep

1. Bat looked really bad
2. Seems to be buddying up to me a bit.

If Ben isn't th 3rd party

Would think its corrik or Chris.

Only reason I say Chris is the lighting fast reflexes day 2 (no one else even attempted) and saying something like hope that you jump to your death or something like that before Ultis flip

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TidusOfTheX
03/28/22 8:31:52 AM
#318:


Message ratings:
[1]Good: Sheep
[1]Bad: Ben

Votes:
[1]Corrik: Sheep, (Ben)
[1]Isquen: Sultan
[1]Ben: Chris
[1]Sheep: Corrik
[0]Chang: (Chris), (Isquen)

Day ends at Tuesday 8:00 PM EST, about 35 hours and 30 minutes from now.

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Crescent-Moon
03/28/22 8:44:20 AM
#319:


I feel like.. I didn't miss a whole lot while I was sleeping.

But yes, that Sheep point still nags at me a little bit despite how stupid it feels.

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Sheep007
03/28/22 8:45:24 AM
#320:


Hey Corrik

Do scum not have a safelist?

Do you think I am incapable of reading? Or more to the point - is one of myself or Bat misreading something scum-indicative? You are clutching at straws and falling into the "lynch anyone who does anything weird" trap which new players trip into constantly with yourself. If you are town, you're better than that.

and yes, three votes on you was me leading a rally against you. Proper exciting stuff. I even unvoted you just in case those votes somehow actually saved Panth!

For real, what did you want me to do with my day yesterday? Lynch someone new single-handedly? I joined in the last 12 hours when Panth was basically already dead, and I think I made it clear it was the best lynch when I joined. I got a claim out of IGCD and Marth yesterday. I'm happy with that for a few hours work.

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Crescent-Moon
03/28/22 8:47:12 AM
#321:


Marth didn't claim yesterday.

I thought the protection read was obvious, but Marth never claimed. Where did you get that idea from?

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Sheep007
03/28/22 8:53:39 AM
#322:


It's true that Corrik doesn't like claiming when pressured, but I also don't think Town Corrik refuses completely to claim here. The game is very close to being solved if he does. Maybe he tries to do it behind the scenes or something first so he gets a dramatic reveal, which I can respect. ScumCorrik absolutely needs to wait until Sultan claims here and probably wants to wait until tomorrow if possible, in order to devise the safest claim that will get him further in the game.

Crescent-Moon posted...
Marth didn't claim yesterday.

I thought the protection read was obvious, but Marth never claimed. Where did you get that idea from?
He said "I will confirm myself very shortly".

That's an obvious enough power claim that we may as well call it a power claim even if it's not a role claim.

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Crescent-Moon
03/28/22 8:55:58 AM
#323:


Oh Marth wasn't subtle on either day about that.

I don't really think the game can move on without Corrik claiming, and he's actively avoiding it.

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Sheep007
03/28/22 9:00:10 AM
#324:


Fair, I wasn't reading the first day closely enough to actually pick up on the Marth softclaim at the time.

I agree that we are stuck here until Corrik claims. Perhaps some votes would speed the process along?

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Crescent-Moon
03/28/22 9:08:56 AM
#325:


Sheep007 posted...
Fair, I wasn't reading the first day closely enough to actually pick up on the Marth softclaim at the time.

I agree that we are stuck here until Corrik claims. Perhaps some votes would speed the process along?
##NL

Am I doing it right?

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Crescent-Moon
03/28/22 9:28:29 AM
#326:


Problem I'm having is there's something very specific that's bugging me, but I also don't want to go into it before Corrik claims.

I have no interest in giving him any more ideas/information than he already has.

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TheSultanOfSlam
03/28/22 9:28:56 AM
#327:


Okay something bothers me about Chris here. He soft claims to have seen Ulti move after Ulti flipped.. and everyone takes his word fot it? What were your actions the other nights then? Seems a bit convenient that ohh yeah the guy who killed himself he moved..

##unvote
##Vote:Chris

I kind of need an explanation here


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TheSultanOfSlam
03/28/22 9:30:21 AM
#328:


DoomTheGyarados posted...
Well... ulti moved last night guys. Lol


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Crescent-Moon
03/28/22 9:31:24 AM
#329:


Chris claimed Panthera moved before Panthera went berserk.

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TheSultanOfSlam
03/28/22 9:33:56 AM
#330:


Really? I must have missed that in the massive walls or something

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Crescent-Moon
03/28/22 9:34:25 AM
#331:


TheSultanOfSlam posted...
Really? I must have missed that in the massive walls or something
...It was before any of those walls happened.

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Sheep007
03/28/22 9:37:01 AM
#332:


did anyone need any more convincing Sultan is town because I didn't but it's always nice to be vindicated

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Crescent-Moon
03/28/22 9:37:27 AM
#333:


I've called Sultan town for most of the game so...

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Sheep007
03/28/22 9:38:28 AM
#334:


Yeah but there's town and then there's TOWN, Hanno?

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Crescent-Moon
03/28/22 9:39:45 AM
#335:


I've actually been wondering if there's a direct correlation between how stellar my reads overall have been and the fact that I'm not really pressured by the need for "self-preservation".

Interesting thought experiment, there.

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Crescent-Moon
03/28/22 9:41:13 AM
#336:


I am curious to why Sultan got immediately on his reason for voting yet still has the vote on, though.

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Crescent-Moon
03/28/22 9:41:26 AM
#337:


....Corrected immediately.

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TheSultanOfSlam
03/28/22 9:44:03 AM
#338:


Crescent-Moon posted...
...It was before any of those walls happened.


Okay I found it must have missed that hahaha

Chris is probably fine


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Crescent-Moon
03/28/22 9:45:05 AM
#339:


I'm not so sure what I currently think of Chris.

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changmas
03/28/22 9:47:47 AM
#340:


Corrik7 posted...


This is topic 4 so this is again after I determined be was the last scum. But, verbatim is strong word usage and doesn't suggest he messed up.

did sheep say verbatim or did Bat say verbatim? The quoting got messed up and I feel like there's a pretty big difference depending on which of the two said it

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Sheep007
03/28/22 9:48:57 AM
#341:


I don't wanna fall too far into the same logic I did last game but if Chris is on the scumteam they would not be getting fucked as thoroughly as they currently are. If the game continues he is dead within the next few nights having claimed an informational role.

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changmas
03/28/22 9:49:38 AM
#342:


or i guess topic 4 means it has to be Bat?

that's actually crazy. it's pretty strange that someone would say this is my flavor VERBATIM and then it's later slightly changed. i kinda do find that hard to believe that you would mess something like that up as Bat

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Crescent-Moon
03/28/22 9:49:47 AM
#343:


Sheep007 posted...
I don't wanna fall too far into the same logic I did last game but if Chris is on the scumteam they would not be getting fucked as thoroughly as they currently are. If the game continues he is dead within the next few nights having claimed an informational role.
I have something I want to say on this matter.

But I also want Corrik's claim out of the way first.

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Crescent-Moon
03/28/22 9:50:31 AM
#344:


changmas posted...
or i guess topic 4 means it has to be Bat?

that's actually crazy. it's pretty strange that someone would say this is my flavor VERBATIM and then it's later slightly changed. i kinda do find that hard to believe that you would mess something like that up as Bat
I noticed the difference in flavor claim immediately, somehow.

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Sheep007
03/28/22 9:50:52 AM
#345:


changmas posted...
did sheep say verbatim or did Bat say verbatim? The quoting got messed up and I feel like there's a pretty big difference depending on which of the two said it
Bat said verbatim, I later said Bat got it wrong if mine was different. I don't really understand the difference regardless, considering we both had access to the literal same text regardless of alignment.

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changmas
03/28/22 9:52:49 AM
#346:


to be clear i don't actually believe it's a scumtell i'm just amazed at that mistake

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Sheep007
03/28/22 9:53:14 AM
#347:


Crescent-Moon posted...
I have something I want to say on this matter.

But I also want Corrik's claim out of the way first.
He has no incentive to claim if he stays at one vote!

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Crescent-Moon
03/28/22 9:54:38 AM
#348:


Sheep007 posted...
He has no incentive to claim if he stays at one vote!
k fair.

I have no issue with just nuking him today if he won't claim.

##Vote: Corrik

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Sheep007
03/28/22 9:54:51 AM
#349:


changmas posted...
to be clear i don't actually believe it's a scumtell i'm just amazed at that mistake
Would it ease your mind if I said I didn't realise I forgot the "made" in my claim and then doubled down because I assumed Bat got something wrong and mine was correct?

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Sheep007
03/28/22 9:55:22 AM
#350:


Hey Chang come vote Corrik with us please x

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