Board 8 > Stock Topic 36

(+) Yeah! (+)

frankftw posted...

The Too-Efficient Market hypothesis: the crash and recovery are both already priced in

This is why it's best to dollar cost average.

red sox 777 posted...

I also want to say that the interests of investors are often not aligned with the interests of workers in the US generally. Higher wages are linked to lower corporate profits. High employment in the US is also linked to less outsourcing to other countries with lower wage levels, and thus, to lower corporate profits. Lower corporate profits are linked to lower stock prices.

We have been in a very long term trend going back to the end of WWII in which outsourcing caused US wages to stagnate while profits increased. If this trend finally breaks, it may be bad for stocks but you may also feel happy about workers getting paid more.

We are seeing workers rise up and demand more compensation, better working conditions, and more. I don't think we're going to see a rise of profits like before. I think we're going to see smaller gains (if any) overall, and the money we get from stocks will come from dividends.

I feel the market rout today was quite positive in that growth stocks appear to have fallen less than the indices. The small number of companies keeping the indices at a high level need to come down to achieve an official bear market and end the bear market.

Getting crushed.

Well Im down almost $100k on the year.

What is going on with this market?

It's a bear market!

I actually feel a lot better seeing the Dow and S&P finally make some big movements down as I don't think the overall market is going to improve until it hits bottom first, and that means those large cap stocks need to fall.

Other things that need to fall to sate the thirst of The Quantitative Tightening: Crypto and Real Estate.

Market's going down, I think it will continue, so time to buy some I-Bonds

Wondering what to do with EVRI

Fuck this market. Im out, $100k loss on the year so far. Unreal.

Yeah. This is why people were telling you your strategy was bad all this time and you ignored them

Properly diversified portfolio is tanking this much better. Not to mention Evri is not a remotely safe stock.

well, you'll be able to deduct $3k on taxes >_>

Like yes I'm being an idiot with BBIG

My total portfolio size is a few paychecks.

If I had 6 figures I'm not going to drop it all on stock. That's just asking to be victimized

Except youre all wrong here. EVRI has crashed less than most other stocks. Its a relatively safe stock overall.

It just means you got lucky and invested in a stock that could have dropped a lot but didn't drop as much as other risky stocks

Moonroof posted...

Except youre all wrong here. EVRI has crashed less than most other stocks. Its a relatively safe stock overall.

The problem is you didn't get most of the gains on EVRI on the way up because you got out with a gain of a few percent at most each time. You could have more than a million in profits from EVRI 2020-21.

But uh, overall I think you're still doing pretty well. Probably been doing much better than this topic since the bear market started.

I remember when I had EVRI at $3. Oh what could have been.

Fun fact Evri in the past month has dropped 23%. Bbig has only dropped 27%.

Actual safe stocks are down much less.

Amazon down 16%
Apple down 8%
Starbucks down 17%
Kroger down 1%
Coca Cola UP 5%
Chevron down 2%

Lopen posted...

It just means you got lucky and invested in a stock that could have dropped a lot but didn't drop as much as other risky stocks

EVRI actually makes money and has a P/E of 11. There isn't that much room for it to fall.

And SPY's down 12% off its high. I would think the gambling sector wouldn't be very safe in the face of at least stagflation and possibly recession but I haven't looked at histories. It could be a quirky psychology play.

Rocket mortgage has a p/e of 3.5 and makes a lot more money so I disagree

Lopen posted...

Rocket mortgage has a p/e of 3.5 and makes a lot more money so I disagree

Rocket mortgage's mortgage business is about to crater. Who's going to be refinancing at a higher rate? The market is pricing in major earnings decline starting pretty much now.

EVRI makes money off of ATM fees. I'm not saying it's a particularly safe stock but it actually can be reasonably valued using discounted cash flow. And the current price is pricing in very little growth.

frankftw posted...

I would think the gambling sector wouldn't be very safe in the face of at least stagflation and possibly recession

This same logic redsox is using on mortgages applies to the gambling sector imo

So yeah 3 p/e on Evri wouldn't surprise me a ton

Lopen posted...

This same logic redsox is using on mortgages applies to the gambling sector imo

So yeah 3 p/e on Evri wouldn't surprise me a ton

If you see a 3 P/E on EVRI and there isn't something new going on like the return of the black death, I'd say it's time to buy hand over fist.

frankftw posted...

And SPY's down 12% off its high. I would think the gambling sector wouldn't be very safe in the face of at least stagflation and possibly recession but I haven't looked at histories. It could be a quirky psychology play.

There's a lot of positive signs that we are at or near a market bottom, but that number gives me pause. I feel like we shouldn't get through this before hitting at least -20% on that one.

red sox 777 posted...

If you see a 3 P/E on EVRI and there isn't something new going on like the return of the black death, I'd say it's time to buy hand over fist.

Well I mean, it is

But I think it's the time to buy Rocket hand over fist too for the record.

The point is 11 p/e on a stock with some uncertainty in it and limited growth potential isn't actually that low. I could easily see it drop to sub 10 again. It's nowhere near its bottom imo. Especially if you think Q4 was an outlier and that P/E number is bloated.

But any stock that has market cap in single digit billions is too risky to put 100% of your portfolio into if you're swinging 6 digits. Just period. I don't care how bullish you are.

Lopen posted...

Well I mean, it is

But I think it's the time to buy Rocket hand over fist too for the record.

The point is 11 p/e on a stock with some uncertainty in it and limited growth potential isn't actually that low. I could easily see it drop to sub 10 again. It's nowhere near its bottom imo. Especially if you think Q4 was an outlier and that P/E number is bloated.

But any stock that has market cap in single digit billions is too risky to put 100% of your portfolio into if you're swinging 6 digits. Just period. I don't care how bullish you are.

I agree with the last sentence. Never put 100% in one thing.

I haven't bought any EVRI and I also agree it could drop further. But I'd be surprised if the stock imploded from here, like fell more than 50% in the relatively near future. I wouldn't be surprised if that happened with RKT because I view its P/E as basically an entirely meaningless number. Because 2021 was probably the best year ever for their refinancing business and that business will likely be going pretty close to zero until whenever the Fed starts cutting rates again.

Another 20% would bring SPY back around to its 50wk SMA, which was support in the covid crash. I have no faith in the Fed's soft landing, so I think it'll run much lower.

red sox 777 posted...

Never put 100% in one thing.

I feel fine putting 100% in many things.

Just not things that aren't household names with stability.

But with stuff like that there's really no functional benefit to NOT diversifying since growth isn't going to be super high anyway

Honestly the only stuff I feel ok with 100% in is something that has a very specific catalyst in mind or is criminally undervalued relative to its sector.

But I don't think I'd ever 100% with 6 digits on what I make even if I REALLY like something like FUBO right now

I'm expecting the bottom to come soon. Sometime between when the Fed confirms they will raise rates and when they actually do. I imagine some buying the dip will happen around then.

We got more than halfway to a circuit breaker day today.

Wow. Market is getting crushed.

Today was a wild ride.

Dont worry, we will go back red tomorrow.

Market dump at open makes me think rate hike is going to be a buy the news event

Bought some Cloudflare calls, Disney calls, and Fubo calls at around the bottom. They have potentially bullish earnings to compound on the rate hike pump. If it dumps well I still have my Square puts so I think this is kinda safe.

Sticking with safe weekly GS puts.

This is not the week to sell puts my friend. If rate hike news crashes us you're going to be stuck with GS for quite some time.

I mean I don't think it will but I'm just saying the reward is not worth the risk this week.

Market rallying with the rate hike announcement.

Sweet. Should be safe to collect $572 this week

First good thing I've done this year is time the AMD dip right before earnings.

Nice! Hopefully you continue your streak.

Back to our regularly scheduled pummeling.

Cant wait for DOW to be under 30,000.

Let's please just have a circuit breaker day and get the capitulation over with.

GOFF

That is all

ow my portfolio

an Index dropping 5% for no reason, no news, no earnings, nothing. The market gone mad

TYDE RECORD DATE

LET'S FUCKlNG GO

Finally. I've almost broken even on this trade!

lets go