Board 8 > Stock Topic 36

(+) Yeah! (+)

I got an $18k RKT dividend into my account yesterday. Um?

Moving some of my altcoin bags into BBIG, ending up with about 16k in calls/shares. Should time nicely to move profits right into the ETH Merge.

Moonroof posted...

I got an $18k RKT dividend into my account yesterday. Um?

Yes. That was part of the RKT play upside. Special $1.01 dividend per share.

And good idea on BBIG. Thinking Tyde announcement is any time now. Also think we hit around $8 before 4/14 even without it due to option runup like in Jan

Also if you're willing to hold till 4/14 moonroof this is the easiest 100% you'll make.

Ill check it on Monday. I cant toy around with the money I have left in my account after taxes.

I have a boatload of calls for this Friday that hopes it'll be too late then, but if it's still down here the play is just as good Monday. Stock is autobuy at anything below $6 right now

Does it make sense to keep holding RKT after the dividend?

Menji posted...

Does it make sense to keep holding RKT after the dividend?

Well I think it's really undervalued right now and I think the buybacks are still on deck.

It squeezing is off the table until the buybacks are used but it's a fairly low risk long play imo

Damn gamestoxk and amc is going up

Still on the fence about BBIG

Juicy BBIG dip today but could not buy.

Gonna load in like 3k worth of shares next week if it hasn't run by then (thinking Friday record date announcement record date 4/14 makes most sense though and timeline fits-- so probably too late then)

So now we've fully diluted out the warrants in prep for the TYDE.

Short interest temporarily went down to 20m during this process but it's right back up over 30m again. So now the obstacle to the squeeze firing hard is gone. Do think without those warrants we'd be well into the 5s right now.

I've got 3 Fridays left. I have an exit plan on no news as I think we'll run to $7-$8 based on January regardless of news, but to say I'm hyped would be an understatement. Especially since TYDE teased a Freescape thing and it seemed like, actually a neat idea (using Crypto to create a MMO-type game world where all the items are tracked via the blockchain and you can exchange the in game currency for cash straight up in real time)

I dont know man. Havent you been talking this up for like six months though?

Well I have over 700 calls for April and I bought most of them before January.

On the one hand I have been talking it up that long. On the other it is unfolding how I expect, to some extent. My plan has always been to supernova in the weeks before April 14th. To me the risks of getting in early outweighed the risks of getting in too late. I've been averaging down, hitting and missing with weekly calls, but haven't changed my focus in the end.

Lots of things have been pointing to this date and we're in the endgame now. At this point it's just about planning my exits depending on whether we get news or not. No news will send us to $8 minimum I think based on January. News I have no idea, plan is to convert as many of these calls as I can to more shares if that happens and then sell covered calls as it runs up.

To me though shares are a slam dunk until $5. Calls are risky, but shares? There is pretty much no risk where we are as long as you're willing to hold through 4/14.

Big green

Looks like Russia is backing down.

Bbig could seriously pop at any time I think. No news needed. Pure technical trading and open option interest alone will send it. Every week is becoming a violent option chain almost immediately. 4/1 looked sparse last week now we've got 15k 3c in the money and huge volume/OI up through 4 for this week.

The big problem is April is mega stacked and July is pretty stacked too-- and Jan 2023 is closer to April than July. You push to $5 and you've got an absurd amount of contracts deep in the money that they need to start hedging for.

We'll see but I really think this is getting to the point where moving to 3.50 starts triggering gamma squeezes. That's why my portfolio value has been wildly swingy when it gets over $3 and under $3 despite me having very few options actually at $3. The prices are moving all over the place. The bill is slowly becoming due. You can only kick the can down the road so long even without the dividend forcing covering.

I might get in BBIG on Monday.

Tyde spinoff announcement AH with record date April 14 will bring maximum price action.

At this point if you think it's going to happen and we aren't going to get timed out by the SEC, it's the time to get in. I believe the latest possible day for the announcement is Monday to hit that April 14 target for record date on option day, but realistically if we don't see by Monday AH, record date will be after April 14th. Still potentially painful for shorts if the record date is announced at any time before the 14th, but not absolutely monstrous like it would be on the 14th

Got 70 3.5c for tomorrow just in case.

Keep in mind I think we run up to 8 either way just on the option chain without Tyde

With Tyde backing that option chain though I have no freaking idea. Especially since this week is now really dense from 3-4.

What a crazy close. 180k thick walls from each cent, $3.20 to $3.25. If there wasn't anything to be excited about you wouldn't see this insanity.

Just so I understand all this, there is a dividend coming out as well as the TYDE ticker, and that is supposed to happen on 4/14 and everyone knows about this?

No. We're still guessing on Tyde's exact date. Based on how spinoffs tend to go they tend to resolve pretty swiftly after a second amendment, generally speaking. Average time for a spinoff to pan out tends to be 90-150 days, we're rapidly approaching 150 (believe it's tomorrow). We've also seen the last amendment and it was much shorter than the other and seemed to answer basically all of the questions. That was over 2 weeks ago now.

The spinoff pays dividend in the form of Tyde shares. The key is Tyde is a very small float stock that isn't currently listed (the entire float is going to come from this dividend). In theory, this will force the closing of most short shares as short sellers need to pay the dividend (in practice they can not pay and start Short Tyde, but that's very risky-- also synthetic/naked shorts will be forced to be covered before the dividend, which will drive the price up if you believe it's happening-- which given the price action I absolutely do)

As for the dividend it's almost certainly happening and soon-- timing is the only issue right now. If you could time it for April 14th you would force people to not be short on the 14th which is the option expiry window which would feed into an absolutely massive options chain. That options chain will be fed into regardless of if we have the date (the January run up was entirely options driven and was a much smaller chain) but the synergy with forcing short covering and absurdly stacked options (about 30% of the float is contained in options under $10)

But you require an 8-10 day window from announcement to spinoff date, so it would need to be announced Monday at the latest for record date on the 14th. If the announcement is done at any date before the 14th it's still quite good, but record date on the 14th would be completely ridiculous for the price.

Anyway so here is what I expect to happen with the stock.

No Tyde announcement before 4/14 - stock probably pumps to around $7-$8 minimum then possibly dumps like how it did in Jan. I will definitely be cashing out lots of 4/14 options if it pumps before Tyde announcement. Not going to assume anything.

Tyde announcement before 4/14 - option chain will still pump, but now you get more incentive to not dump. I would be optimistic to reach ATH before 4/14.

Tyde announcement with record date 4/14 - honestly thinking the whole current option chain goes in the money. Serious. I would not sell any until well into double digits and would be looking to make most of my options into shares to get as much Tyde as I can.

These are all based on historic prices. Jan pump was all options, in a smaller chain, and got to $6. A bigger chain I expect to go higher (especially since warrants under $9 have all been cashed out). October runup from $5-$9 was all RUMOR of Tyde.

I have 10s of thousands of dollars at risk here. Could have sold at modest profits a few times. But I believe in this, so I'm going to see it through.

As for why I think it's very low risk now it's all the options pump. Thinking we double next week pretty easily based entirely on institutions pumping their calls and hedging by the market maker. Tyde announcement happening before 4/14 is just immense upside.

Lol biotech style stop loss raid its getting real now.

I may just do it.

No pressure. Not financial advice. Do what you're comfortable with. Just be willing to hold through 4/14 that's all I ask (with no Tyde news youll want to sell a bit before, but seems like the easiest double in the world). Otherwise don't bother playing. Probably don't put the whole portfolio in this time though I feel like that makes you too skittish to hold if we get pushed below $3 (I don't think we get pushed below $3 but never underestimate the market maker's greed)

Im still sitting on my BBIG ready for the moon

If you can hold bbig through this you can hold anything

Moonroof, here's your BBIG entry window.

Yep. Probably goes back up to $2.99 before end of day, so right now it's oversold.

If it's above $3.01, very bullish.

I just am unsure whether BBIG will ever go up let alone by 4/14

For perspective it's being dumped on news that BBIG is delaying earnings until 2 weeks after the report is due.

Something they'd done literally every earnings since the company has been public

So it's just more manipulation that is theoretically backed by "news" so they're being more aggressive with it to scare off uninformed investors.

Moonroof posted...

I just am unsure whether BBIG will ever go up let alone by 4/14

There is no news we actually need. Run up by 4/14 will happen on open interest on the April 14 chain alone.

The question is whether you believe the pump and dump that happened January will repeat. I think it will because the mechanics are the same. If you're not convinced, then stay away I guess. Think it's an easy double from where it's at by 4/14 though. I wish I had more money to throw at it.

I decided to liquidate my 3c July 2022 at 20% gain to put more on closer stuff because this dip is so fake.

27 3.5c next week
23 5c next week
21 3.5c 4/22

Why did you do calls at those prices if you think its going to double?

Maximizes value to shoot below where you think it's going if option prices are cheap.

3.5c costs me $10 a contract. If it goes to $6 that's 30x gain. The 4/22 costs me $28 a contract so that would only be around 10x gain.
5.5c is closer to where I think it's going to be, and costs me $3 a contract. If it goes to $6 I still make money but it's only 15x gain.

If I'd held the 3c July they had market value of around $70, so they would only 4x. I still have a lot in July/October/Jan 2023 without them so figured liquidating them would be ok.

Technically I think it's going to $7 or $8 but yeah. $6 feels like a good floor since that's where January got to.

Now if I had infinite funds I'd absolutely be buying shares here. It's just safer. Alternatively the 2.5c April 22 is very very very reasonably priced right now as it breaks even at $3.10. Hell the 2c is even better as it breaks even at $3.

But with a high conviction play multiplying is going to be better with low cash flow going in.

Also bought 27 3c for today. Truly degenerate. Feel like getting back to the $3.15 range isn't out of the question though. The price drop today is 100% fake so if no one bites it might be too hard to hold it below $3 and if it gets cleanly above $3 I expect yesterday's prices to resurface. We'll see.

Hugging $3 for the past 30 minutes. High drama. Lots of fuckery being employed to keep this down right now I think.

A surge of volume could pop this so hard. Not sure there are enough eyes though.

$3.02

Massive statement I think. Huge week coming next week. I did lose money on my degenerate calls but not much. Bought for $0.03 sold for $0.02. Lost $47.

I didnt buy. Maybe I will Monday.

At this point you might want to just wait for the Tyde announcement to actually hit and swing trade it. *shrug. Do what you feel safe with. I just think one of these days we're getting a massive gap up and you want to be in before that point for the lowest risk gain. Like I do not recommend buying above $5. It could go way above $5 but it'll be so rocky I think you'd be stopped out. Right now the price action is really chill. Just methodically going up.

So for the record in January it started really moving Jan 12, 1.5 weeks from the Jan 21 chain popping. If the pattern holds this Tuesday or Wednesday it'd start moving (4/14 is a Thursday). It peaked the first day of the week of option expiry. Last day to announce Tyde for 4/14 record date is Monday so those two could overlap nicely.

Anyway barring news I'm looking to flip most of my April Options on 4/11. With Tyde news hold for gold, but yeah.

Just learned there are Qualified Opportunity Zone securities you can buy to defer taxes if you invest your previous capital gains. And then I guess pay no tax if you hold it for quite a few years too. Would have been nice in 2020 with all my day trading.

Speaking of taxes, I made around $320k profit in 2021. In order to yield that much I had to invest/risk about 99% of my money at a time. The problem was that because I made so much money, I had to pay 35% in taxes. So that means I risked 99% of my funds for at best a 65% gain, whereas I probably could have invested/risked 60% of my money for a much similar gain (I didnt do the math so I could be off a bit). When you look at it like that, it makes you wonder why bother investing all your money.

Moonroof posted...

Speaking of taxes, I made around $320k profit in 2021. In order to yield that much I had to invest/risk about 99% of my money at a time. The problem was that because I made so much money, I had to pay 35% in taxes. So that means I risked 99% of my funds for at best a 65% gain, whereas I probably could have invested/risked 60% of my money for a much similar gain (I didnt do the math so I could be off a bit). When you look at it like that, it makes you wonder why bother investing all your money.

You'd have to pay taxes on lower gains too. But yeah, the marginal gain from risking all your money vs risking most of it is probably not worth the risk. Everyone's been trying to tell you that for ages!

Moonroof posted...

Speaking of taxes, I made around $320k profit in 2021. In order to yield that much I had to invest/risk about 99% of my money at a time. The problem was that because I made so much money, I had to pay 35% in taxes. So that means I risked 99% of my funds for at best a 65% gain, whereas I probably could have invested/risked 60% of my money for a much similar gain (I didnt do the math so I could be off a bit). When you look at it like that, it makes you wonder why bother investing all your money.

The QOZ security I mentioned above can be used to defer 2021 taxes if they were sold within 180 days of your purchase.

I.e. December 2021 gains you have until May 2022 to buy this security. Not advising you to do it but may be worth looking at giving your level of gains.

Long term capital gains are what you should aim for with portfolios that size

Lopen posted...

Long term capital gains are what you should aim for with portfolios that size

That's not going to happen for Moonroof. If he holds for a week that's a major accomplishment!