Board 8 > Stock Topic 36

(+) Yeah! (+)

The number is irrelevant

I have no idea why Gamestop is worth market cap of 7 billion and you don't either other than stock price. I'm not interested in tautology stock speculation.

Still an opportunity for the algos to get that short paycheck before a pump Monday? Then whatever arcane movements on the split markets

HeroicCrono posted...

Can you? How? Who are you going to sell it to? Loads of SPACs are now trading way below their initial $10 price from when the SPAC was just holding cash.

Okay, so let's say, for the sake of argument, everyone is funneling out and it dumps to $5 before you can unload all of your shares.

A $0.50 dividend on a $2.50 stock is completely absurd

How low do you realistically think it can go before people who want to sell can? Because talking pure dividend value, it's completely undervalued unless you're going to say people that want to can't get out until like SP $3 ($0.30 dividend on a $2.50 stock still probably causes it to squeeze for the record-- BGFV and RKT did on dividends that were much lower on percentage)

Gamestop has hundreds or thousands of stores. They have a brand. They have an executive team trying to make money with the business. If you don't think that's worth $7 billion, then don't buy it. Everyone who traded based on it being worth $7 billion but not $20 billion made money.

I mean I posted a comparison with another retail business 16 months ago or so based purely on value based metrics. You didn't agree with it then. Fine! But you don't get to just conclusorily say I was wrong, especially when that valuation was right as far as making money in the market goes.

Lopen posted...

Okay, so let's say, for the sake of argument, everyone is funneling out and it dumps to $5 before you can unload all of your shares.

A $0.50 dividend on a $2.50 stock is completely absurd

How low do you realistically think it can go before people who want to sell can? Because talking pure dividend value, it's completely undervalued unless you're going to say people that want to can't get out until like SP $3 ($0.30 dividend on a $2.50 stock still probably causes it to squeeze for the record-- BGFV and RKT did on dividends that were much lower on percentage)

RKT squeezed for one day and proceeded to fall 80% from there. That kind of fast squeeze can happen too, in addition to slow ones like Overstock.

I just think it's hilarious that you think this fraud stock that is only pumped due to the same market games that you're saying aren't happening with BBIG, is legitimately at its proper stock price.

There are plenty of retail chains that actually make money that are valued lower than GME. Do you think it should be worth more than Kohls, Nordstrom, Dillards, Wendy's, Macy's, Dine Brands, Choice Hotels, almost as much as Dominos. These are all big name chains, with lower market cap than Gamestop at 120b, most of which with bigger footprints than Gamestop that make considerably more money than Gamestop.

I also think it's hilarious that you think BBIG is worth $0 when appraisals (and frankly, just comparing to other platforms in the space, that's reasonable) have Lomotif (which BBIG owns) valued at $4-6b which would make the market cap of BBIG 8x-12x from here alone. Not to mention it owns the advertising platform for it which already generates tens of millions in revenue per year without integration with Lomotif, and it has hundreds of millions of cash on hand and no debt. Like as though I'm literally just in this for a squeeze and not because I think the company is undervalued right now.

GME was undervalued at $3, but even with a generous valuation it's probably around $20-$30 or so. In the "chain that is known but loses money" category with stuff like Bed Bath and Beyond.

I have no faith on BBIG at all whatsoever but thats because I have done minimum research on it and lost around $50k from it.

I'm in it for the squeeze

I mean don't get me wrong I do think it's going to squeeze SUPER hard but if I was just normally investing I would still buy at this price. Even if you factor in the next round of dilution being approved (it hasn't and can't be until late June, but if you assume it will be) it's super undervalued here. Next dilution would put float to 400m if approved-- if you think Lomotif is the low end of 4b that's still $10/share.

I am not valuing BBIG based on normal metrics. Let's be clear. I am looking at the price movement and your posts. Mostly your posts. You sound like someone's who's being conned and has fallen for it. I'd prefer to be wrong but hope you don't mind me saying my honest opinion.

There's also a difference between early 2021 and now. Many tech companies are down 80-90%. The question of what is an fair earnings multiple has completely changed.

My target price and date has always been the same. My confusion has always been "why is the date moving back" and "why is the stock price moving this way based on news." Now the date is here, so that doubt is gone.

If you're someone who thinks of GME as a "legitimate investment" you should know that stock price movement should generally be ignored.

You think I'm being conned, and I think you're not learning anything practical from following the stock market. We'll see who's right.

I guess the question is how long can someone believe in a stock and continually say it will go up eventually before they realize it wont ever go up or it actually does.

And you wouldn't sound that way if you talked about the business more, but 90% of your BBIG posts are gripes about the market being allegedly manipulated. It's a bit like the people who talk about the Fed printing money and say the economy is going to crash because it's so manipulated, and sell everything and hold cash. But if they are printing so much money, why is the response to hold cash?

Like, if it goes up in December then does that mean you were right the whole time? What is right defined as? I feel like there needs to be a set deadline in order to measure whether it was worth it.

If you "realize" a stock "won't ever go up" and the known information on every front aside from stock price, has only played towards your hypothesis, you shouldn't have got in the stock in the first place.

Lopen posted...

My target price and date has always been the same. My confusion has always been "why is the date moving back" and "why is the stock price moving this way based on news." Now the date is here, so that doubt is gone.

If you're someone who thinks of GME as a "legitimate investment" you should know that stock price movement should generally be ignored.

You think I'm being conned, and I think you're not learning anything practical from following the stock market. We'll see who's right.

If you had aggressively sold the spikes and bought the deep dips you'd have made a fortune in BBIG already. Feels like target price/date staying the same is the problem.

HeroicCrono posted...

the market being allegedly manipulated

This is affecting all stocks right now, not just BBIG. I think that's where your confusion is.

I don't think BBIG being pinned here is any worse than say Netflix dumping 50% on losing 100k subscribers.

HeroicCrono posted...

If you had aggressively sold the spikes and bought the deep dips you'd have made a fortune in BBIG already

Not really, no. I mean I made a lot in the 2-5 run. Buying at 2, selling at 3 repeatedly wouldn't really have made that much. If it runs to even $6 next week I'll make more than I will have made by doing that over and over.

Moonroof posted...

Like, if it goes up in December then does that mean you were right the whole time? What is right defined as? I feel like there needs to be a set deadline in order to measure whether it was worth it.

Well let's put it this way. I bought a lot of ZM last fall. It's way down since then. I haven't sold because I still believe the company is way undervalued and will go up eventually. But I was conclusively wrong. Why? Because if I'd held cash or bought other stuff, I'd be able to buy more ZM shares now than I have. And then I could still participate in the upside and in fact make more off the upside (assuming it actually does come).

If it was down 10% or 20% I'd say that you can say those are temporary losses you need to live with but being down 60%..... I think it's more useful to conclude I was wrong and try to learn from it.

I mean if you're not averaging down and not selling I'm not sure you're actually learning anything.

Of course I've been averaging down.

Are you sure you're not just going deeper into a con? Not sure why Zoom at higher than its current P/E makes sense-- what's the growth thesis with Microsoft Teams taking more market share and remote work decreasing over time.

It being the only meme that isn't running right now, and is in fact dumping (??? Who would sell now???) is like... what? Are we going to bankrupt Robinhood or something with this run I'm like totally confused why it would keep being suppressed. I mean short interest has gone up almost 50% this week but yeah. This is wild.

Lopen posted...

This is affecting all stocks right now, not just BBIG. I think that's where your confusion is.

I don't think BBIG being pinned here is any worse than say Netflix dumping 50% on losing 100k subscribers.

Okay, I guess to be fair, earlier you said all meme stocks were surging, not all stocks.

Lopen posted...

Are you sure you're not just going deeper into a con? Not sure why Zoom at higher than its current P/E makes sense-- what's the growth thesis with Microsoft Teams taking more market share and remote work decreasing over time.

No I'm not sure. That's kind of the point.

So you average down when there is a solid bear case to support a drop on top of the market being junk and you're learning.

I average down when the price drops and refuses to hold gains on tons of good news in filings and PRs and the company direction being way more solid than it was when I got in due to better management, and more solid earnings guidance, and I'm being conned.

Just making sure we understand each other here.

How are you deciding the news is good or better than what the market already priced it in at?

I don't get the combativeness. But in any case, we'll find out next week it seems.

Like I have my July calls. If the stock price hasn't gone up by then, I'm not going to keep investing in it. I will accept I was wrong. My Jan 2023 calls and shares are my long investment. Those stay regardless because those aren't my squeeze investment.

My theory has always been to shoot a few months behind the dividend with calls because that's how OSTK moved. I'm not showing any signs of being closer to wrong today about anything other than the date (which is now known) than I was months ago-- the stock price doesn't have to move linearly-- last time it moved huge it moved like 2-12 in a week. So the price not having moved yet is irrelevant. The next two weeks (Monday in particular), that will be relevant. No coincidence my short term calls are 5/27 expiry, as 5/27 is the day Tyde distribution takes place (5/18 is record date).

Current Stock Price should have basically no relevance to what you think the stock price will be. The timeline should be in your head, and the justifiable stock price at that time should be in your head. The price is just psychology to trick you into selling if the news hasn't warranted the drop.

The lesson to learn with Zoom is having a moment of reflection and considering why you thought that higher stock price was warranted to begin with. Is that still the case? If it's not, and you're not selling and are averaging down, you're not learning but are instead in denial. It's the opposite of learning. But the current price shouldn't mean anything to you. News and guidance is what should mean things to you.

Lopen posted...

you shouldn't have got in the stock in the first place.

fuck

Lopen posted...

Current Stock Price should have basically no relevance to what you think the stock price will be. The timeline should be in your head, and the justifiable stock price at that time should be in your head. The price is just psychology to trick you into selling if the news hasn't warranted the drop.

This doesn't feel right. I get what you're saying, but the current price is an aggregation of the information available out there - including marketwide factors that don't just apply to the particular stock you're looking at. The current price is well correlated with future price in that it's hard to find any set of metrics that is a better predictor of future price than current price. Now, of course that is the whole game, but the way you're phrasing it, it sounds like the game is easy and it isn't easy to generate returns better than an index fund.

The lesson to learn with Zoom is having a moment of reflection and considering why you thought that higher stock price was warranted to begin with. Is that still the case? If it's not, and you're not selling and are averaging down, you're not learning but are instead in denial. It's the opposite of learning.

Obviously. If I didn't think that I would have just sold it.

red sox 777 posted...

it sounds like the game is easy and it isn't easy to generate returns better than an index fund.

What I said can simultaneously be true and the game can still not be easy.

It's not easy because psychology works, and because your read isn't always right.

But if your read is right and you ignore psychology, then yes it should be that easy. Those are big ifs.

I've been thrown around enough by dumb stocks that I consider myself pretty proficient at ignoring psychology at this point, so it just comes down to the read, which I have no reason to doubt because of the price-- that's falling for the psychology.

To put it in perspective.

BBIG has basically been moving independent of the market for months now. It hardly dropped or went up from any Russia stuff or fed inflation or any of that stuff.

It has two patterns

1. Slowly bleed out until it reaches its floor of low $2s
2. Goes up on its own good news such as Adrizer deal closing, Tyde record date known, bullish ER, etc, then aggressive drop to back to around where it was to continue slowly bleeding out.

If this was really a matter of market conditions, BBIG would have gone to lower lows and been brought back up with these pieces of good news. The logical conclusion to reach is the price isn't tracking with known things about the company or market conditions.

So the big thing here is while I expect a huge run up at the end of today and Monday, there is the possibility that because BBIG is a penny stock there isn't a lot of attention on it-- many short Hedge Funds and Market Makers aren't really following the filings, thusly the main driving force in pushing it up will be two things.

1. BBIG SP going up from those who are paying attention closing short positions and/or buying, driving the price up.
2. Tyde share audit forcing naked positions to be closed immediately, driving the price up. The hints that these exist with BBIG is the abundance of Short Exempt sales and FTDs that have existed for months and months and months.
3. Remaining short positions don't necessarily close until margin called. The timing on that, I'm not really sure. Sometime before or soon after the 27th.

I just want to get that out there for anyone in this with me. Don't panic sell if it doesn't crush on Monday. Monday is a big deal, but so is May 27th, and it's probably going to take a little while to unwind it all even after. My goal is $7 next week, $10 by May 27th, with my ridiculous numbers being on the table going into June - August, as they were with OSTK. That doesn't mean it couldn't be a lot more frontloaded than I think but yeah. It's not really panic time till July.

Hence why most of my calls are in July, and the short term ones are by and large May 27th rather than May 20th.

Spidey sense is tingling

Probably last time to get in. +50% move coming in the next two hours.

I dont know man

Today's the last day to buy to receive the dividend?

Yes

No idea what happens from now though. Not sure how short interest and stuff shakes out. Hold from now till May 27th, should be much higher, that's all I know. Delay is pretty much off the table. We're just waiting for that notice of effectiveness on the form 10 which should happen automatically on the 18th. Tyde is Nasdaq approved and letter of approval is on the SEC website.

You basically have to hold from now through the 27th to get Tyde. That being the case should create a lot of upward pressure if retail isn't dumb and margin calls should be happening because lenders want their Tyde.

I think at minimum we see a pump to $9 so the remaining warrants can be cashed and the 8.32 Lisa King calls come into effect but yeah. Like my July calls. Like my shares

This exact thing happened with RKT. Went up the final day for the dividend then crashed.

I've been reading things that the T+2 settlement doesn't really apply for this dividend because you have to hold it through the 27th anyway so yeah I don't know what's going to happen

Its moving!

I've been reading a lot of conflicting reports. What seems likely as you can still buy today to get the dividend. But you may be able to buy all the way until the 28th and receive the dividend. Apparently some have contacted their brokers and that's the response they received

The dividend is looking extremely likely to be SP $15 right now. So that's basically a $1.50 dividend on a $3 stock. I'd be extremely surprised to see it finish lower than $10 by May 27. Just raw dividend value it becomes profitable to buy in. Particularly because it's tax free until sold. Market Makers who don't want to shell out for calls probably the only ones fighting at this point.

TydeV currently trading at 25. Lol. I'm not sure what that actually means for BBIG. It could be that shorts are trying to cover divvy through grabbing TydeV but that seems prohibitively expensive

So BBIG will become TYDEV? But TYDEV just IPOd and is 5x higher?

No - if you have BBIG you will also get TYDE as a dividend

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/80025497

TydeV halted?

Moonroof posted...

So BBIG will become TYDEV? But TYDEV just IPOd and is 5x higher?

TydeV is given for free one per 10 BBIG
BBIG must be held through May 27 to get Tyde
TydeV will become Tyde after May 27

I am a bit confused as to why TydeV is tradeable right now and what that actually means but yeah

I cant imagine holding onto BBIG through 5/27 lol. Itd be either extremely bad or extremely good.

Moonroof posted...

I cant imagine holding onto BBIG through 5/27 lol. Itd be either extremely bad or extremely good.

The hilarious thing about Tyde's current value is if it holds BBIG could literally go down to $0 and you'd still only be down 20% at these prices.

Obviously I don't think BBIG or Tyde are going to be at these values on the 31st but yeah. Seems hard to lose just holding imo.

The stock market is done.

RIP.