Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 336: Through the Wire

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red sox 777
11/04/20 5:59:50 AM
#51:


No more in person votes sounds like Biden holds it.

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Corrik7
11/04/20 6:05:04 AM
#52:


Fox cracked me up when they said

"Are these pollsters just really bad at their jobs or do they have political bias? How can you tell me you can't predict Trump voters when Trump's campaign advisor came out and said they would win by 400-500k before the election. How can they know the results unless they are polling correctly?"

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Corrik7
11/04/20 6:09:45 AM
#53:


Republican Michigan Senator is out performing Trump. So a potential flip.

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ChaosTonyV4
11/04/20 6:16:40 AM
#54:


Corrik7 posted...
Republican Michigan Senator is out performing Trump. So a potential flip.

lmfao

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iiaattgg
11/04/20 6:16:43 AM
#55:


I am making freaking bank off the old dudes in the gym who are confident that just because DT is up in states that he will hold them

20 on georgia
50 on PA
10 on Arizona that some places have even called for Biden

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Corrik7
11/04/20 6:18:08 AM
#56:


ChaosTonyV4 posted...
lmfao
?

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iiaattgg
11/04/20 6:19:59 AM
#57:


Corrik7 posted...
?
It means laughing my fucking ass off its internet/text slang

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Corrik7
11/04/20 6:20:09 AM
#58:


Michigan supposedly just dumped some and down to 60k vote difference

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Corrik7
11/04/20 6:20:20 AM
#59:


iiaattgg posted...
It means laughing my fucking ass off its internet/text slang
But why

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fuming
11/04/20 6:26:20 AM
#60:


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Wanglicious
11/04/20 6:27:04 AM
#61:


does appear the republicans are keeping the senate too.


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Corrik7
11/04/20 6:33:11 AM
#62:


Yeah if Collins holds I cant see the Dems taking both Georgia's and Michigan to get to the majority.

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LordoftheMorons
11/04/20 6:35:38 AM
#63:


That MI update also almost eliminated James' advantage relative to Trump (Trump is up 1.4 in MI, James is up 1.5)

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ChaosTonyV4
11/04/20 6:38:59 AM
#64:


Corrik7 posted...
But why

Laughing at how badly the Dems fucked this up.

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fuming
11/04/20 6:44:11 AM
#65:


ChaosTonyV4 posted...
Laughing at how badly the Dems fucked this up.

They didn't fuck it up. This is their dream scenario. They got republicans who don't like Trump to vote for Biden. But now Biden has a right wing congress and he can use them as an excuse to not do anything left wing whatsoever.
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Paratroopa1
11/04/20 6:51:24 AM
#66:


Yes, Biden having every one of his cabinet appointees blocked by Mitch McConnell, what a dream scenario for him
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LordoftheMorons
11/04/20 6:52:24 AM
#67:


fuming posted...
They didn't fuck it up. This is their dream scenario. They got republicans who don't like Trump to vote for Biden. But now Biden has a right wing congress and he can use them as an excuse to not do anything left wing whatsoever.
It is definitely not their dream scenario

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LordoftheMorons
11/04/20 6:53:20 AM
#68:


Also my sense of time has been completely warped

I feel like it should be 7am now or something, but it's not even 4:00

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red sox 777
11/04/20 6:53:29 AM
#69:


We just don't have a cabinet for 4 years? Now there's an idea.

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LordoftheMorons
11/04/20 6:55:49 AM
#70:


red sox 777 posted...
We just don't have a cabinet for 4 years? Now there's an idea.
I guess it would be less of a problem now that Trump's set the unconstitutional precedent that you can just use acting appointments forever and never bother with Senate confirmation!

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MZero
11/04/20 6:57:30 AM
#71:


What are the chances Trump attempts the ol' Grover Cleveland in 4 years?

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fuming
11/04/20 6:58:16 AM
#72:


Paratroopa1 posted...
Yes, Biden having every one of his cabinet appointees blocked by Mitch McConnell, what a dream scenario for him

This absolutely won't happen.
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Wanglicious
11/04/20 6:59:22 AM
#73:


little because he's too old already.
now a john adams, that's different.

no idea if it was posted earlier or not but still an amazing chart of early exit polling data.

https://twitter.com/MattBruenig/status/1323825846365396992


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Corrik7
11/04/20 6:59:35 AM
#74:


MZero posted...
What are the chances Trump attempts the ol' Grover Cleveland in 4 years?
Too old. His son will run though.

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pjbasis
11/04/20 7:00:16 AM
#75:


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LordoftheMorons
11/04/20 7:02:04 AM
#76:


Wanglicious posted...
little because he's too old already.
now a john adams, that's different.

no idea if it was posted earlier or not but still an amazing chart of early exit polling data.

https://twitter.com/MattBruenig/status/1323825846365396992
This is going to be very inaccurate until the vote is finalized. There's still a ton of mail vote out (which is going to be very Biden leaning); all of those numbers will very likely shift in Biden's favor.

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LordoftheMorons
11/04/20 7:03:46 AM
#77:


https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1323958121463795714 thread

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RaidenGarai
11/04/20 7:06:40 AM
#78:


So for smart people who can math, if there are 1.4 million absentee votes left, and Trump leads by 700,000, what percentage does Biden have to win there to take the lead?

I am not a smart person and can't math.

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MZero
11/04/20 7:07:09 AM
#79:


Wanglicious posted...
little because he's too old already.

Won't he be the same age Biden is now?

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LordoftheMorons
11/04/20 7:07:32 AM
#80:


RaidenGarai posted...
So for smart people who can math, if there are 1.4 million absentee votes left, and Trump leads by 700,000, what percentage does Biden have to win there to take the lead?

I am not a smart person and can't math.
75%

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Corrik7
11/04/20 7:07:45 AM
#81:


Green Bay dumped some and Biden is now up 11k.

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Wanglicious
11/04/20 7:08:54 AM
#82:


MZero posted...
Won't he be the same age Biden is now?

biden also isn't going for a 2nd term. hell he may not make it through his first. but he made it clear during the race that he's likely a one term president should he win.

you'd have Don Jr. vs Kamala.

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Paratroopa1
11/04/20 7:10:35 AM
#83:


I know this election is revealing a deep darkness within this country but I just CANNOT imagine trump jr not being a complete flop in a republican primary
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Corrik7
11/04/20 7:11:06 AM
#84:


Down to 40k lead in michigan

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MZero
11/04/20 7:11:12 AM
#85:


Wanglicious posted...
biden also isn't going for a 2nd term. hell he may not make it through his first. but he made it clear during the race that he's likely a one term president should he win.

you'd have Don Jr. vs Kamala.

Well Trump would be too cause he already served one!

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RaidenGarai
11/04/20 7:13:49 AM
#86:


LordoftheMorons posted...
75%
Thanks!

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MoogleKupo141
11/04/20 7:14:20 AM
#87:


Paratroopa1 posted...
I know this election is revealing a deep darkness within this country but I just CANNOT imagine trump jr not being a complete flop in a republican primary


I would hope youre right just because of how much of a jabroni jr. is. He doesnt have his dads raw alpha energy or whatever.
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Janus5k
11/04/20 7:14:33 AM
#88:


https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-wisconsin.html

Trump is outperforming 2016 by 20 points in Kenosha, which has the most outstanding votes. Is that mail voting missing or did the riots just push the county disproportionately right?

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ChaosTonyV4
11/04/20 7:14:39 AM
#89:


(Assuming Biden wins)

Do we think Kamala is gonna be the automatic candidate, or will Dems run a primary?

She uh, isnt exactly the most charismatic, and she didnt do great in this last primary at all.

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Corrik7
11/04/20 7:15:19 AM
#90:


Janus5k posted...
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-wisconsin.html

Trump is outperforming 2016 by 20 points in Kenosha, which has the most outstanding votes. Is that mail voting missing or did the riots just push the county disproportionately right?
They assume mail in ballots will cut the margin a lot.

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LordoftheMorons
11/04/20 7:15:28 AM
#91:


MoogleKupo141 posted...
I would hope youre right just because of how much of a jabroni jr. is. He doesnt have his dads raw alpha energy or whatever.
https://twitter.com/MollyJongFast/status/1318025861409460227

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Wanglicious
11/04/20 7:18:04 AM
#92:


ChaosTonyV4 posted...
(Assuming Biden wins)

Do we think Kamala is gonna be the automatic candidate, or will Dems run a primary?

She uh, isnt exactly the most charismatic, and she didnt do great in this last primary at all.

she's the one donors love.
pretty much all of biden's names floated are people the DNC and donors love. so yes, she'd be the presumptive frontrunner, with the pitch being 'well i've really been doing this for 4 years already...'


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LordoftheMorons
11/04/20 7:18:26 AM
#93:


Janus5k posted...
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-wisconsin.html

Trump is outperforming 2016 by 20 points in Kenosha, which has the most outstanding votes. Is that mail voting missing or did the riots just push the county disproportionately right?
Yes I believe there are Kenosha mail ballots outstanding (not sure if it's some or all of them).

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ChaosTonyV4
11/04/20 7:19:48 AM
#94:


Wanglicious posted...
she's the one donors love.
pretty much all of biden's names floated are people the DNC and donors love. so yes, she'd be the presumptive frontrunner, with the pitch being 'well i've really been doing this for 4 years already...'

IS she the one donors love? Im pretty sure thats Mayor Pete to be honest

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Lightning Strikes
11/04/20 7:19:56 AM
#95:


Entirely possible that Donald Jr. is a stalking horse for Ivanka. Trump seems to push her much harder and she isnt as totally out of it.

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Janus5k
11/04/20 7:20:21 AM
#96:


And of course now that I've said it they come in and close the gap. Neat.

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Wanglicious
11/04/20 7:22:44 AM
#97:


ChaosTonyV4 posted...
IS she the one donors love? Im pretty sure thats Mayor Pete to be honest

pete's quite favorable with them too.
but she's the one who was getting like 70% of them favored and was considered one of the frontrunners because of that at the start, before tulsi killed her on stage.

pete fairs better than her with regular voters for sure. could totally see a Kamala/Pete ticket.


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The Mana Sword
11/04/20 7:24:54 AM
#98:


Biden should have WI and MI, which assuming Nevada holds, is 270.

Im less optimistic about PA, but well see. Id rather the win not be by exactsies, so hopefully the mail-ins there really do break hard Dem.

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LordoftheMorons
11/04/20 7:25:57 AM
#99:


Trump's lead in Michigan is down to around 2000 votes:

https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1323963582850207745

Looks very likely that Biden has won unless something weird happens in AZ (which is still uncalled by most networks)

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LordoftheMorons
11/04/20 7:26:51 AM
#100:


The Mana Sword posted...
Biden should have WI and MI, which assuming Nevada holds, is 270.

Im less optimistic about PA, but well. Id rather the win not be by exactsies, so hopefully the mail-ins there really do break hard Dem.
I think Biden more likely than not will get PA, but yeah it definitely could go either way (as could GA).

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