Current Events > Embarrassed I stood up for this incompetent party.

(+) Yeah! (+)

https://twitter.com/mattmxhn/status/1324025746705190913
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I, personally, never actually expected arizona to be in play much less for dems to pickup a Senate seat too, despite the polling

It's crazy that georgia is even close at all

Maybe I was overly pessimistic but imo the big disappointment of the night is basically that they didn't win more Senate seats. But it was never reasonable to think Democrats were gonna win NC imo. That would have signaled a yoog blowout nationally

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averagejoel posted...

this is a non-issue. every democratic candidate gets labeled as a socialist.

I don't think anyone with a third of a brain thinks Joe Biden, Obama, or the Clintons are socialists

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I don't know about you guys, but I think it would be nice if we got good things and we shouldn't be happy to settle for there simply being somewhat less bad things.

So can we finally acknowledge that Biden underperformed with Hispanics and it had nothing to do with "socialism"
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Smashingpmkns posted...

So can we finally acknowledge that Biden underperformed with Hispanics and it had nothing to do with "socialism"

It was that damn Despacito!

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Smashingpmkns posted...

So can we finally acknowledge that Biden underperformed with Hispanics and it had nothing to do with "socialism"

Well, not quite. Lol. We see that in Texas he has. Now the research needs to be done on the why which will definitely be done.

ElatedVenusaur posted...

I don't know about you guys, but I think it would be nice if we got good things and we shouldn't be happy to settle for there simply being somewhat less bad things.

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CruelBuffalo posted...

Well, not quite. Lol. We see that in Texas he has. Now the research needs to be done on the why which will definitely be done.

Lol come on dude
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COVxy posted...

It was that damn Despacito!

That definitely didn't help. But really though the "you ain't black" comment should have really tipped people off. Biden's nice guy but he's extremely out of touch with today's youth and minorities. I just don't understand why we can't agree on candidates that are both a good compromise politically and also in touch with the common people's social issues.

Of course, as fucked up as it is, "You ain't black" is still preferable to Hillary "All Lives Matter" Clinton.

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3PiesAndAFork posted...

Because he's actually a socialist.

So he would have gained votes from people who wanted a socialist and would have still lose the same votes that trump ran Biden as socialist.

Not to mention they would have done better down ballot since they would have ran on policy instead of I'm not trump. Because you know who also isn't trump? The Republicans running for Senate and house.

Biden was an awful candidate just like Hillary was. Ran an awful campaign just like Hillary. And represents everything people under 40 hate about politicians.

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When you're so desperate to blame a primary candidate that conceded in March/April for the lack of Hispanic voters going blue and not the actual candidate that had the nomination locked up for 7 months.

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Tyranthraxus posted...

That definitely didn't help. But really though the "you ain't black" comment should have really tipped people off. Biden's nice guy but he's extremely out of touch with today's youth and minorities. I just don't understand why we can't agree on candidates that are both a good compromise politically and also in touch with the common people's social issues.

Of course, as fucked up as it is, "You ain't black" is still preferable to Hillary "All Lives Matter" Clinton.

I think mostly we have no idea what's going on and everybody and their mother is shoehorning their own personal pet peeves into the square hole.

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I feel like I'm in bizzaro world, Biden flipped arizona and could plausibly get 300+ evs and we're talking about how badly he did

Idk I'm not a democrat, , didn't support Biden in the primary, etc

Things just seen good idgi

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Balrog0 posted...

I feel like I'm in bizzaro world, Biden flipped arizona and could plausibly get 300+ evs and we're talking about how badly he did

Idk I'm not a democrat, , didn't support Biden in the primary, etc

Things just seen good idgi

I guess they're good if you pretend they were good before Trump, and that Biden does not have a 40 year history in politics.

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Oh yeah for sure

I meant good for Biden

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Balrog0 posted...

I feel like I'm in bizzaro world, Biden flipped arizona and could plausibly get 300+ evs and we're talking about how badly he did

He won the primary by a massive margin and the same people still pretend he stole it so that's not really surprising. These people hate Democrats more than Republicans.

Balrog0 posted...

I feel like I'm in bizzaro world, Biden flipped arizona and could plausibly get 300+ evs and we're talking about how badly he did

Idk I'm not a democrat, , didn't support Biden in the primary, etc

Things just seen good idgi

I guess it's a mix of Biden not inspiring a lot of confidence to begin with, the Senate not flipping blue (this was always unlikely but dammit if I didn't have hope anyways), and the general fear that despite everything that happened this year alone that turnout for the GOP was still extremely high which makes me not confident for 2022 and 2024.

Overall I don't have that feeling of dread I had back in 2016 because I was restless on election day and for a couple days afterwards. But I fear that things could change dramatically for the worse if the course isn't corrected by Biden.

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Balrog0 posted...

I feel like I'm in bizzaro world, Biden flipped arizona and could plausibly get 300+ evs and we're talking about how badly he did

Idk I'm not a democrat, , didn't support Biden in the primary, etc

Things just seen good idgi

Part of it is the slow and uncertain roll in of the vote I imagine, which nobody is used to dealing with.

The other part is that there was an expectation of a blow-out. I don't think that was a particularly reasonable expectation, but it was certainly possible given the polling.

Floating around CE for the past couple of weeks was this narrative that the 2016 Trump base was comprised of a large number of people that were tricked by Trump's anti-establishment talk, and must have become disillusioned over the past 4 years. Don't know how representative that view actually was, but if it was common, then Trump's performance would be a surprise.

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Solid Snake07 posted...

I don't think anyone with a third of a brain thinks Joe Biden, Obama, or the Clintons are socialists

I don't care what you think. you're wrong. they have all been labeled as socialist

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Balrog0 posted...

I feel like I'm in bizzaro world, Biden flipped arizona and could plausibly get 300+ evs and we're talking about how badly he did

Idk I'm not a democrat, , didn't support Biden in the primary, etc

Things just seen good idgi

Biden/The person against Trump should have won by a much bigger margin. And not just because of what the polls said, because of Trump's time as leader. The fact that it's as close as it is is really disheartening.

That being said I totally disagree that Bernie would have done better. Yang or AOC if she was able to run would have just been dismissed as socialists and they would lose the middle class suburban vote.

Maybe by the time AOC is an old woman, her views will be more accepted in America.

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Antifar posted...

https://twitter.com/mattmxhn/status/1324025746705190913

So basically O'Rourke 2024?

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Damn_Underscore posted...

So basically O'Rourke 2024?

He shot himself in the foot with his anti-gun comments and the BernieTeam attacked him before the primaries even started so the left hated him cuz he was a threat to Bernies campaign so Beto isnt going to be a national figure without some big changes

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/inside-bernie-world-s-war-beto-o-rourke-n951016

https://thedailybanter.com/2018/12/04/david-sirota-unfairly-smears-beto/

Bernie is always the reason my candidates sucked :'(

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I think that's an overstatement of the impact of mean Tweets by Sanders supporters, given that Joe Biden just won the presidency.
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Antifar posted...

https://twitter.com/mattmxhn/status/1324025746705190913

I'm not sure what to make of this information

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averagejoel posted...

I'm not sure what to make of this information

Basically its a regression line

1. Left to right show hispanic an area is (right is more Hispanic)
2. When looking up and down, if the number is above 0, it means Biden did better with that type of Hispanic population. If it is below 0 Biden did worse.

what is saying to me is counties with small to moderate wasnt really much of a strong sway, if anything Biden did better, but once you get into communities that are largely Hispanic Biden did worse than Beto

CruelBuffalo posted...

Basically its a regression line

1. Left to right show hispanic an area is (right is more Hispanic)
2. When looking up and down, if the number is above 0, it means Biden did better with that type of Hispanic population. If it is below 0 Biden did worse.

what is saying to me is counties with small to moderate wasnt really much of a strong sway, if anything Biden did better, but once you get into communities that are largely Hispanic Biden did worse than Beto

Not sure it makes any sense at all to subtract 2018 Beto numbers. Would like to see this plot w/ raw Biden values to actually get a feel for what the data are saying.

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Hmmmm like comparing if it has the same curve as Betos?

COVxy posted...

Not sure it makes any sense at all to subtract 2018 Beto numbers. Would like to see this plot w/ raw Biden values to actually get a feel for what the data are saying.

yeah I'm not sure why subtracting Beto's numbers is relevant here

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CruelBuffalo posted...

Hmmmm like comparing if it has the same curve as Betos?

Subtracted metrics can produce very funky results depending on the directionality, so you always want to plot each independently to understand the actual trends.

I have a feeling that dude plotted Biden's results alone and the results weren't compelling, so then he started subtracting "baselines" until it was compelling. I just don't see an a priori reason to subtract Beto's 2018 performance. But idk.

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In fact, quickly googling it, it seems Beto over performed in the latino community in 2018, which would produce a positive curve, so if you were to subtract a positive curve from something flat or negligible, it would produce a negative curve like that.

But *shrugs*

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@Antifar what do you think is the way forward

AOC 2024?

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I would definitely hold off on aoc 2024. Idk if america is ready for her and id rather not ruin her early in her career

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KobeSystem posted...

I would definitely hold off on aoc 2024. Idk if america is ready for her and id rather not ruin her early in her career

won't she still be too young to run for president in 2024?

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averagejoel posted...

won't she still be too young to run for president in 2024?

Pretty sure she'll be 35

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god forbid we have a young person be president

that's still too young for most americans especially the ones that vote, they want somebody with gray hair someone in their late 40s early 50s, not a young 30 something especially one that understands technology, that'll scare the fuck out of them.

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CADE FOSTER posted...

god forbid we have a young person be president

Boomers will never submit to having a Millennial boss them around, probably, so we'll have to wait for more of them to die.

COVxy posted...

In fact, quickly googling it, it seems Beto over performed in the latino community in 2018, which would produce a positive curve, so if you were to subtract a positive curve from something flat or negligible, it would produce a negative curve like that.

But *shrugs*

Here's what it looks like when you plot Biden's performance against the hispanic population by county in texas:


Did this quick and sloppy, but clearly the story here is quite different than what was being presented.

Given the above plot, it certainly doesn't seem like the Hispanic population was related to Biden's performance in Texas!

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COVxy posted...

Here's what it looks like when you plot Biden's performance against the hispanic population by county in texas:


Did this quick and sloppy, but clearly the story here is quite different than what was being presented.

Given the above plot, it certainly doesn't seem like the Hispanic population was related to Biden's performance in Texas!

The margins of victory were smaller for Biden than they were for Clinton in 2016, too. He still won, but by less.

However, Biden more or less makes up for it in urban centers, running up bigger margins in the counties where Austin, Houston, etc are located

In texas this strategy was a wash, but basically you can see it paying off in the national map

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Well at least that's my contention, I know I've been sort of facetiously saying Biden is gonna get 300+ but that's mostly to counter the (what I see as overly pessimistic) narrative I'm seeing on ce

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i mean, there's every reason to be pessimistic

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I disagree

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Arizona news has me nervous

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This post might not age well but should have ran Bernie.

Well see if Biden pulls through but my point is to remind you how you loved defending Biden as the pick vs. Bernie.
Thing is, part of the imcompetence you dicuss is why Bernie wasn't ran.
At least that is what I remember

tote_all posted...

And even if they did, wouldn't Biden still have won?

No. He gets destroyed.

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