Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 334: save_us.pa

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HeroDelTiempo17
11/03/20 1:54:12 PM
#202:


ExThaNemesis posted...
In Kanye we trust

Don't tell me you actually enjoyed Jesus Is King.

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Yesmar_
11/03/20 1:55:23 PM
#203:


Jakyl25 posted...
Just to be clearer than I already have been, Im not mad hes voting for Kanye because it hurts Biden, Im mad that hes voting for a candidate that aligns with his own beliefs less than Trump OR Biden

Kanye values little besides attention. I think their beliefs match perfectly.

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Ashethan
11/03/20 1:57:42 PM
#204:


Jakyl25 posted...
Dude he wants a Christ-based government

Pretty sure that fits Trump too.

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red sox 777
11/03/20 1:58:49 PM
#205:


Ashethan posted...
Pretty sure that fits Trump too.

Trump might be our least Christian president ever.

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GuessMyUserName
11/03/20 2:01:01 PM
#206:


Jakyl25 posted...
Just to be clearer than I already have been, Im not mad hes voting for Kanye because it hurts Biden, Im mad that hes voting for a candidate that aligns with his own beliefs less than Trump OR Biden
to be fair on the Christ-based government thing I doubt Kanye could bring it about any stronger than Trump installing Bill Barr in charge of the Justice Department!

then again maybe kanye puts kirk cameron on the supreme court or something

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StartTheMachine
11/03/20 2:03:22 PM
#207:


So what are some hot predix on Kanye votals

In the states that he's on the ballot, does he get more than 1 percent? 2 percent?

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Jakyl25
11/03/20 2:06:00 PM
#208:


I predict 3-5 in the votals to be

Jorgensen
West
Hawkins
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Peace___Frog
11/03/20 2:15:40 PM
#209:


Tabloids reporting that lil wayne's gf left him over his endorsement of trump

Lol

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Ashethan
11/03/20 2:15:52 PM
#210:


red sox 777 posted...
Trump might be our least Christian president ever.

I disagree! He's very much like the televangelist preachers who shout on TV begging for money. "Give me money, and god will reward you! I need an airplane that I can write off on my Taxes." Honestly, it's a surprise Trump hasn't started his own church yet. My guess is that it'd just cut too much into his golf time and he knows Eric and Don Jr. are too stupid to run that. Then again, given his business experience, I wouldn't be surprised if even their church went bankrupt.

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Yesmar_
11/03/20 2:19:25 PM
#211:


Taft didn't believe in the divinity of Jesus Christ.

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red sox 777
11/03/20 2:24:10 PM
#212:


Ashethan posted...
I disagree! He's very much like the televangelist preachers who shout on TV begging for money. "Give me money, and god will reward you! I need an airplane that I can write off on my Taxes." Honestly, it's a surprise Trump hasn't started his own church yet. My guess is that it'd just cut too much into his golf time and he knows Eric and Don Jr. are too stupid to run that. Then again, given his business experience, I wouldn't be surprised if even their church went bankrupt.

His recent rallies have the vibe of a cult meeting. Trump makes a statement and the crowd chants back at him "We love you." But you know, cults are not Christian. They are extremely forbidden. 1st Commandment! "Thou shalt have no gods before me."

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Jakyl25
11/03/20 2:48:33 PM
#213:


Jakyl25 posted...
As someone who has similarly never had a line, Ill check back later with my own report


Just voted

Still no lines here. LOL suburban Michigan
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KamikazePotato
11/03/20 3:21:42 PM
#214:


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LordoftheMorons
11/03/20 3:25:38 PM
#215:


GuessMyUserName posted...
https://twitter.com/LincolnsBible/status/1323633972543303680

holy moly this is art
Amazing

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Jakyl25
11/03/20 3:41:27 PM
#216:


So many good insane Trump quotes about water
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LordoftheMorons
11/03/20 3:47:19 PM
#217:


My favorite part is Lindsey Grahams lifejacket

Anyway, I urge everyone to Pokmon-Go-to-the-polls if they havent yet!:

https://twitter.com/ne0liberal/status/1323643585292570629?s=21

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iiaattgg
11/03/20 3:49:59 PM
#218:


LordoftheMorons posted...
My favorite part is Lindsey Grahams lifejacket

Anyway, I urge everyone to Pokmon-Go-to-the-polls if they havent yet!:

https://twitter.com/ne0liberal/status/1323643585292570629?s=21


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UshiromiyaEva
11/03/20 4:06:03 PM
#219:


Ds continue to outpace Rs in registered voter placement ever hour in FL.

Guess Rs just...got up earlier, which is pretty reflective of the variance in party age distribution.

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Peace___Frog
11/03/20 4:15:15 PM
#220:


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Crossfiyah
11/03/20 4:16:55 PM
#221:


I haven't seen anything that makes think Biden has definitely won Florida yet but also nothing that particularly concerns me.

Which is a good place to be when you're leading the polls I guess.

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red sox 777
11/03/20 4:20:43 PM
#222:


Last 3 hours have been quite bad for Trump with betting markets. AZ flipped blue and NC did just now as well. Florida down from 64% this morning to 59% now. Pennsylvania.....still not moving.

If we had past trends, we could make predictions with a lot more confidence right now. But hey, it's about to be After Work Vote time on the East Coast. Let's see this move!

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Crossfiyah
11/03/20 4:20:46 PM
#223:


Another update on Broward county.

From 3pm to 4pm, Broward was D41/R26/I33 (D +15).

Trend seems to be getting more D as the day goes by. Waiting to see what happens after 5 pm but this does not inspire confidence that Rs will reach that magical +400k party ID bulwark by the time polls close.


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KamikazePotato
11/03/20 4:22:01 PM
#224:


Stealing this post from the Politics board

If you wanted Biden to win FL, everything is lining up for it.

But it's still FL.

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iiaattgg
11/03/20 4:23:12 PM
#225:


UshiromiyaEva posted...
Ds continue to outpace Rs in registered voter placement ever hour in FL.

Guess Rs just...got up earlier, which is pretty reflective of the variance in party age distribution.

yeah now that Im in my 30s I just have unconditionally surrendered to waking up at 4 no matter when I go to sleep, and the concept of people staying up past 9 makes me assume they use meth


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red sox 777
11/03/20 4:23:43 PM
#226:


Yeah, Rs aren't getting to 400k unless this AWV thing is real and powerful. I question the whole premise of Biden winning big with independents, but it doesn't look like Trump can afford to lose big there.

Trump winning Florida by less than 1% also would not inspire confidence for the rest of the nation. I think he really wants to outdo his +1.2% from 2016 to make it look like he has a chance nationally...

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Crossfiyah
11/03/20 4:26:57 PM
#227:


red sox 777 posted...
Yeah, Rs aren't getting to 400k unless this AWV thing is real and powerful. I question the whole premise of Biden winning big with independents, but it doesn't look like Trump can afford to lose big there.

Trump winning Florida by less than 1% also would not inspire confidence for the rest of the nation. I think he really wants to outdo his +1.2% from 2016 to make it look like he has a chance nationally...

He'd almost certainly need to with how far apart Florida and WI/MI/PA have been in polling.

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ExThaNemesis
11/03/20 4:33:14 PM
#228:


Showed up at my place, zero line. In and out in five minutes.

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ExThaNemesis
11/03/20 4:33:24 PM
#229:


HeroDelTiempo17 posted...
Don't tell me you actually enjoyed Jesus Is King.

good lord no

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LordoftheMorons
11/03/20 5:14:34 PM
#230:


https://twitter.com/marcorubio/status/1323747297491116035?s=21

Rubio predicts a blue wave!

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red sox 777
11/03/20 5:15:18 PM
#231:


LordoftheMorons posted...
https://twitter.com/marcorubio/status/1323747297491116035?s=21

Rubio predicts a blue wave!

I guess Little Marco isn't happy with Big Donald!

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TotallyNotMI
11/03/20 5:15:44 PM
#232:


Rubio is really bad at this social media thing, isn't he?

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Suprak the Stud
11/03/20 5:15:56 PM
#233:


IS EVERYONE READY?!?!

Two hours from now is actually a really important closing time. SC closes at that time (theoretically close senate race but probably now) but, more importantly, Georgia closes at this time (as well as most of Florida). Georgia is important for a couple of reasons. First, it is the state with the smallest democratic lean on 538. How far apart it finishes is going to be important for the rest of the night. Biden wins? Probably relaxing night. Biden loses? Well, how much does he lose by? He is projected to win by 0.9, so any loss there would mean the polls were off by a full point there.

Here are the next closest states for Biden according to 538 and then how far away they were from Georgia (their number minus 0.9 which is the Georgia number):
ME 2 - Biden +1.6 (0.7)
NC - Biden +2.3 (1.4)
Florida - Biden +2.5 (1.6)
Arizona - Biden +2.6 (1.7)
NE 2 - Biden +3.2 (2.3)
Pennsylvania - Biden +4.7 (3.6)

Now, of course, there wouldn't be a uniform polling error between states and one state might be more off than another. But, theoretically, if Biden lost Georgia by 0.1 the night is still fine as there are a bunch of other places he was polling much better he could make up a loss in Georgia. Even if he loses by whole point, the shift isn't big enough for major concern. BUT if he loses by 2.5, it is time to sweat. And if he loses by 3.6 plus TIME TO PANIC.

The other reason Georgia is important is because they've been allowed to process mail in ballots since October 16 and they are quick on counting, so we should have all this information relatively quickly.

So 1 hour 45 minutes, boys. Hold on to your butts.

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foolm0r0n
11/03/20 5:18:40 PM
#234:


I hope everyone standing in 3 hour lines has had enough time to be convinced to vote for Jo

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LordoftheMorons
11/03/20 5:21:01 PM
#235:


https://twitter.com/alxthomp/status/1323738716280659972?s=21

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StartTheMachine
11/03/20 5:21:55 PM
#236:


Maybe it's because I live right next door in Tennessee, but Georgia possibly turning blue is a bigger surprise to me than Texas possibly turning blue.

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Suprak the Stud
11/03/20 5:29:46 PM
#237:


Yeah, I would also be shocked if Georgia went blue. If it does it is going to be an early night. I know the state is trending blue, but I just don't think it is ready yet. Too much built in republican base there.

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Moops?
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red sox 777
11/03/20 5:30:28 PM
#238:


LordoftheMorons posted...
https://twitter.com/alxthomp/status/1323738716280659972?s=21

Well, he is governor of Vermont. One of the most liberal states in the country. If he wants to win reelection, supporting Trump probably isn't the best move.

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#239
Post #239 was unavailable or deleted.
LordoftheMorons
11/03/20 5:47:14 PM
#240:


https://twitter.com/existentialfish/status/1323752032000450570 (thread)

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Suprak the Stud
11/03/20 5:49:13 PM
#241:


UltimaterializerX posted...
Trump literally cannot win without PA. Every other state is meaningless.

You could see some sort of weird combo like Wisconsin + NE2 + ME2 which isn't completely impossible. Pennsylvania is his easiest path though, yeah.

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Moops?
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Xeybozn
11/03/20 5:50:32 PM
#242:


LordoftheMorons posted...
https://twitter.com/existentialfish/status/1323752032000450570 (thread)

So Fox is using those poll results to scare their viewers about how bad/dumb the rest of America is, right?
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Dancedreamer
11/03/20 5:51:32 PM
#243:


https://twitter.com/BostonGlobe/status/1323642416008732674

Man drove 2000 miles from Boston to Georgia to vote because his absentee ballot didn't arrive.

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Suprak the Stud
11/03/20 5:55:02 PM
#244:


https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-results-timing/

Nice cheat sheet to use to night to see when results might be counted by!

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Moops?
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Xeybozn
11/03/20 5:56:54 PM
#245:


Dancedreamer posted...
https://twitter.com/BostonGlobe/status/1323642416008732674

Man drove 2000 miles from Boston to Georgia to vote because his absentee ballot didn't arrive.

I've been wondering something about all those news stories where people are traveling hundreds of miles to vote because their absentee ballots didn't arrive - why aren't they registered to vote where they apparently live?
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Forceful_Dragon
11/03/20 5:57:33 PM
#246:


Dancedreamer posted...
https://twitter.com/BostonGlobe/status/1323642416008732674

Man drove 2000 miles from Boston to Georgia to vote because his absentee ballot didn't arrive.

That man is a true patriot regardless who he voted for.

It's a shame the postal service was being systematically undermined in the months leading to the election or he likely would not have needed to go through that.

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Corrik7
11/03/20 5:58:33 PM
#247:


5 hour wait at my precinct now

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MoogleKupo141
11/03/20 5:59:07 PM
#248:


Xeybozn posted...


I've been wondering something about all those news stories where people are traveling hundreds of miles to vote because their absentee ballots didn't arrive - why aren't they registered to vote where they apparently live?


It says in the article this guy has only been staying in Boston since pandemic started and he has a home in Georgia still.
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red sox 777
11/03/20 6:00:01 PM
#249:


Xeybozn posted...
I've been wondering something about all those news stories where people are traveling hundreds of miles to vote because their absentee ballots didn't arrive - why aren't they registered to vote where they apparently live?

Residency in US law has a lot to do with your intention to return. So for example, if you are from Georgia and are on a work assignment in Boston, you can still be a Georgia resident. If you are attending school in Boston, you are still entitled to call Georgia your residence. Etc.

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Tom Bombadil
11/03/20 6:00:21 PM
#250:


Xeybozn posted...
why aren't they registered to vote where they apparently live?

Military, sometimes.

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red sox 777
11/03/20 6:00:42 PM
#251:


And in the President's case, if you go to Florida every weekend to stay at your club and play golf......you can vote in Florida.

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