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HeroDelTiempo17 11/02/20 7:56:18 PM #52: |
Mr Lasastryke posted...
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1323359333003022336 It's 50/50 given that Trump wins those three states specifically, which is a subset of his 10% overall chance to win. Nate is just being a dork as usual --- I definitely did not forget to put the 2020 GOTD Guru winner, azuarc in my sig! ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Ashethan 11/02/20 7:56:32 PM #53: |
Mr Lasastryke posted...
...wasn't he saying the election was totally in the bag for biden a few days ago? >_> It's working under the assumption that Trump wins NC, FL and GA. Biden has a much more narrow path to victory if that happens. --- Board 8 Mafia Archive: ashchive.altervista.org ... Copied to Clipboard!
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LordoftheMorons 11/02/20 7:58:10 PM #54: |
Mr Lasastryke posted...
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1323359333003022336No, hes been saying that Trump has around a 10% chance of winning, per his model (which is both much less than 50% and much greater than 0%). Furthermore the model considers Biden to be a slight favorite in all three of those states, so Biden losing them all would be information that suggests that the model underestimated Trump. --- Congrats to azuarc, GotD2 Guru champ! ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Mr Lasastryke 11/02/20 8:00:34 PM #55: |
oh ok. i don't read nate silver's twitter that often so i didn't know how to interpret that tweet.
--- Geothermal terpsichorean ejectamenta ... Copied to Clipboard!
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LordoftheMorons 11/02/20 8:04:52 PM #56: |
Amazing, the TX GOP platform literally contradicts one of its stated positions with the very next sentence
https://twitter.com/ne0liberal/status/1323430378825199616?s=21 --- Congrats to azuarc, GotD2 Guru champ! ... Copied to Clipboard!
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HeroDelTiempo17 11/02/20 8:07:07 PM #57: |
Mr Lasastryke posted...
i don't read nate silver's twitter that often this is a good choice --- I definitely did not forget to put the 2020 GOTD Guru winner, azuarc in my sig! ... Copied to Clipboard!
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HeroDelTiempo17 11/02/20 8:09:40 PM #58: |
LordoftheMorons posted...
Amazing, the TX GOP platform literally contradicts one of its stated positions with the very next sentence Sad thing is this isn't a contradiction from the conservative mindset. The GOP wants to unregulate all the censorship by big tech! --- I definitely did not forget to put the 2020 GOTD Guru winner, azuarc in my sig! ... Copied to Clipboard!
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LordoftheMorons 11/02/20 8:35:21 PM #59: |
This uh.... sure is an interesting MS Sen poll
https://twitter.com/DataProgress/status/1323435654219517953 --- Congrats to azuarc, GotD2 Guru champ! ... Copied to Clipboard!
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red sox 777 11/02/20 8:40:24 PM #60: |
50/50 if Trump wins FL, NC, and GA? That looks incredibly possible. I'll take those chances.
--- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! ... Copied to Clipboard!
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ChaosTonyV4 11/02/20 8:56:14 PM #61: |
To post something non-election related and a few days old:
https://twitter.com/chrissyteigen/status/1322235290874900483?s=21 Incredible, lol --- Phantom Dust. "I'll just wait for time to prove me right again." - Vlado ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Corrik7 11/02/20 9:02:09 PM #62: |
My prediction
https://www.270towin.com/maps/KAw3e --- Xbox Live User Name - Corrik Currently playing: Spider-Man (PS4), Quantum Break (X1) ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Jakyl25 11/02/20 9:09:11 PM #63: |
A tweet so dangerous they wont even let you share it
--- Thank you, Eddie Guerrero. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DRlKR5nU8AA_v_C?format=jpg&name=large ... Copied to Clipboard!
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UshiromiyaEva 11/02/20 9:16:39 PM #64: |
LordoftheMorons posted...
This uh.... sure is an interesting MS Sen poll Bruh there's no way on earth. But could you imagine. --- ACAB ... Copied to Clipboard!
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MMXcalibur 11/02/20 9:20:18 PM #65: |
Jakyl25 posted...
A tweet so dangerous they wont even let you share it Please God, let this end tomorrow. --- CHIEFS : Super Bowl 54 Champions!!!!! PENGUINS : Playoff competent. ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Jakyl25 11/02/20 9:22:33 PM #66: |
For the record, the SCOTUS decision hes referring to allows absentee votes to be counted up to 9 days after the election so long as theyre postmarked by Election Day
--- Thank you, Eddie Guerrero. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DRlKR5nU8AA_v_C?format=jpg&name=large ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Dancedreamer 11/02/20 10:14:20 PM #67: |
https://twitter.com/justinbaragona/status/1323438772990709760
lol Candace Owens --- This isn't funny Dean, the voice says I'm almost out of minutes! ~Alexandra ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Suprak the Stud 11/02/20 10:20:24 PM #68: |
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/02/briefing/the-2020-vote-preferences-of-102-common-first-names.html
Petition to change Karens to Janets. --- Moops? "I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion." ... Copied to Clipboard!
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xp1337 11/02/20 10:28:24 PM #69: |
I'm... bored isn't the right word, but I'd like to busy myself with something to keep my mind distracted so I think I'll compile everyone's predictions with a few breakdowns. I also skimmed Ngamer's topic for additional maps though that wasn't very fruitful. If I missed anyone or made errors feel free to note them/repost this/whatever. I may (or may not!) update this if we get a bunch more maps coming in.
---Presidential--- Maps xp: https://www.270towin.com/maps/ype8k LotM: https://www.270towin.com/maps/JndLz Dancedreamer: https://www.270towin.com/maps/Pwy28 Xeybozn: https://www.270towin.com/maps/XwmOV Suprak: https://www.270towin.com/maps/NJKy6 Corrik: https://www.270towin.com/maps/KAw3e red sox: https://www.270towin.com/maps/jV7zm ~~~ By Margin Biden LotM: 413-125 xp: 351-187 Xeybozn: 344-194 Corrik: 290-248 Dancedreamer: 279-259 Suprak: 271-267 --- red sox: 252-286 Trump ~~~ Swing States/Districts (Ordered from most people picking Biden at the top to least. Only states where we had splits included. Hopefully I caught all the errors here!) NV Biden: xp, LotM, Dancedreamer, Xeybozn, Suprak, Corrik Trump: red sox NE-2 Biden: xp, LotM, Dancedreamer, Xeybozn, Suprak, Corrik Trump: red sox PA Biden: xp, LotM, Dancedreamer, Xeybozn, Corrik Trump: Suprak, red sox AZ Biden: xp, LotM, Xeybozn, Suprak, Corrik Trump: Dancedreamer, red sox ME-2 Biden: xp, LotM, Xeybozn, Suprak Trump: Dancedreamer, Corrik, red sox NC Biden: xp, LotM, Xeybozn Trump: Dancedreamer, Suprak, Corrik, red sox FL Biden: xp, LotM Trump: Dancedreamer, Xeybozn, Suprak, Corrik, red sox GA Biden: xp, LotM Trump: Dancedreamer, Xeybozn, Suprak, Corrik, red sox TX Biden: LotM, Xeybozn Trump: xp, Dancedreamer, Suprak, Corrik, red sox IA Biden: LotM Trump: xp, Dancedreamer, Xeybozn, Suprak, Corrik, red sox OH Biden: LotM Trump: xp, Dancedreamer, Xeybozn, Suprak, Corrik, red sox ~~~ Senate xp: https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-election/qyYBRq Suprak: +3 net for Dems (-AL, +CO, AZ, ME, NC) ~~~ House xp: +13 net for Dems. Suprak: "About the same. Maybe loss of one or two seats." --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Dancedreamer 11/02/20 10:33:40 PM #70: |
Suprak the Stud posted...
Petition to change Karens to Janets. The good place fan in me is saddened. But I'm fine with this. --- This isn't funny Dean, the voice says I'm almost out of minutes! ~Alexandra ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Suprak the Stud 11/02/20 10:36:35 PM #71: |
Ill lock in at -2 just so we have something concrete to compare it to.
All these other slackers need to get their senate/house maps in. --- Moops? "I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion." ... Copied to Clipboard!
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UshiromiyaEva 11/02/20 10:36:55 PM #72: |
Sure are a lot of last minute polls where obvious Trump states are...still Trump, but tightening up hard.
The popular vote is going to be something else this year. --- ACAB ... Copied to Clipboard!
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PerfectChaosZ 11/02/20 10:40:27 PM #73: |
The popular vote literally doesn't matter. They should stop wasting time on counting and recording it.
... Copied to Clipboard!
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UshiromiyaEva 11/02/20 10:42:28 PM #74: |
...How is that wasting time?
It's not like they have to count it again or something. --- ACAB ... Copied to Clipboard!
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xp1337 11/02/20 10:44:31 PM #75: |
I mean it's useful as a constant reminder of how fucked our electoral system is in actually representing the will of the people and that we should change it.
and like was said they count all the votes anyway it's literally just adding the state counts which they have to do together --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? ... Copied to Clipboard!
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UshiromiyaEva 11/02/20 10:50:45 PM #76: |
I need to make sure everyone understands that even if Florida goes blue tomorrow it is still an unpredictable nightmare state to be feared and confused by.
At no point is anyone allowed to go "Hell yeah Florida" even if Biden wins literally because of it. --- ACAB ... Copied to Clipboard!
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LordoftheMorons 11/02/20 10:55:09 PM #77: |
I guess I need to make my Senate prediction match my Presidential predictions
https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-election/5nQ22M Not too confident about this, though! --- Congrats to azuarc, GotD2 Guru champ! ... Copied to Clipboard!
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ChaosTonyV4 11/02/20 10:56:50 PM #78: |
https://twitter.com/draftkings/status/1323294561079304192?s=21
If youre confident about a Biden victory, you have an opportunity to make some money if you bet soon! --- Phantom Dust. "I'll just wait for time to prove me right again." - Vlado ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Suprak the Stud 11/02/20 11:01:59 PM #79: |
At the very least I know Ill beat LotM tomorrow!
--- Moops? "I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion." ... Copied to Clipboard!
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UshiromiyaEva 11/02/20 11:02:47 PM #80: |
ChaosTonyV4 posted...
https://twitter.com/draftkings/status/1323294561079304192?s=21 LOL didn't Silver just tweet out about how the sources the betting markets have been using for their polls are fucked? --- ACAB ... Copied to Clipboard!
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LordoftheMorons 11/02/20 11:10:40 PM #81: |
... Copied to Clipboard!
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LordoftheMorons 11/02/20 11:11:04 PM #82: |
Suprak the Stud posted...
At the very least I know Ill beat LotM tomorrow!Hey, if I win we all win...! --- Congrats to azuarc, GotD2 Guru champ! ... Copied to Clipboard!
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UshiromiyaEva 11/02/20 11:12:04 PM #83: |
Biden is Jeb in old man makeup.
--- ACAB ... Copied to Clipboard!
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charmander6000 11/02/20 11:19:20 PM #84: |
LordoftheMorons posted...
https://i.redd.it/v68phot9zxw51.jpg Biden/Trump finish with a 269/269 split, one faithless elector picks Jeb and is then chosen by congress to be President. --- Congratulations to azuarc for winning the guru challenge ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Corrik7 11/02/20 11:23:24 PM #85: |
My Senate prediction
https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-election/5XL9L5 --- Xbox Live User Name - Corrik Currently playing: Spider-Man (PS4), Quantum Break (X1) ... Copied to Clipboard!
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charmander6000 11/02/20 11:24:35 PM #86: |
@xp1337
Here's my submission. https://www.270towin.com/maps/Lkv9k I was debating Biden taking North Carolina, but I couldn't pull the trigger... --- Congratulations to azuarc for winning the guru challenge ... Copied to Clipboard!
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LordoftheMorons 11/02/20 11:28:15 PM #87: |
Corrik7 posted...
My Senate predictionTook me a few minutes to find the 51st Dem seat Bold prediction! --- Congrats to azuarc, GotD2 Guru champ! ... Copied to Clipboard!
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LordoftheMorons 11/02/20 11:31:38 PM #88: |
Drive-thru voting thread from the Harris County clerk; there will only be one drive-thru location available tomorrow out of an abundance of caution to make sure those votes ultimately count:
https://twitter.com/CGHollins/status/1323480526951485441 --- Congrats to azuarc, GotD2 Guru champ! ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Corrik7 11/02/20 11:31:44 PM #89: |
LordoftheMorons posted...
Took me a few minutes to find the 51st Dem seatYeah that's a mistake and should be 50-50 lol. --- Xbox Live User Name - Corrik Currently playing: Spider-Man (PS4), Quantum Break (X1) ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Jakyl25 11/02/20 11:33:48 PM #90: |
UshiromiyaEva posted...
To be fair, this data isnt from people betting using the markets, its from a pool of people just picking a winner for free and if theyre right they get entered in a prize drawing Still could be influenced by the lines though --- Thank you, Eddie Guerrero. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DRlKR5nU8AA_v_C?format=jpg&name=large ... Copied to Clipboard!
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UshiromiyaEva 11/02/20 11:37:00 PM #91: |
https://twitter.com/GarrettHaake/status/1323476726161264641?s=19
... http://www.whattimeisit.com/cgitime.exe?TimeZone=[USA] Austin, TX Uhhhhh --- ACAB ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Suprak the Stud 11/02/20 11:42:41 PM #92: |
Corrik7 posted...
Yeah that's a mistake and should be 50-50 lol. Too late! It's already locked in! --- Moops? "I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion." ... Copied to Clipboard!
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xp1337 11/03/20 12:19:10 AM #93: |
wow tons of maps came in (mostly in Ngamer's topic) so here have a slightly-belated Election Day Midnight Special Update:
(Updated through Post: 334-92 in Containment, 381 in Ngamer) ---Presidential--- Maps xp: https://www.270towin.com/maps/ype8k LotM: https://www.270towin.com/maps/JndLz Dancedreamer: https://www.270towin.com/maps/Pwy28 Xeybozn: https://www.270towin.com/maps/XwmOV Suprak: https://www.270towin.com/maps/NJKy6 Corrik: https://www.270towin.com/maps/KAw3e red sox: https://www.270towin.com/maps/jV7zm charmander: https://www.270towin.com/maps/Lkv9k Chris: https://www.270towin.com/maps/DJzBp fuming: https://www.270towin.com/maps/gXObO Ashethan: https://www.270towin.com/maps/ne1dY Luster: https://www.270towin.com/maps/E0Prx Inviso: https://www.270towin.com/maps/AJ32W ~~~ By Margin Biden LotM: 413-125 Chris: 360-178 xp: 351-187 Xeybozn: 344-194 Luster: 308-230 Inviso: 305-233 Corrik: 290-248 Ashethan: 288-250 Dancedreamer: 279-259 charmander: 272-266 Suprak: 271-267 --- fuming: 269-269 --- red sox: 252-286 Trump ~~~ Swing States/Districts (Ordered from most people picking Biden at the top to least. Only states where we had splits included. Hopefully I caught all the errors here!) WI Biden (12): xp, LotM, Dancedreamer, Xeybozn, Suprak, Corrik, red sox, charmander, Chris, Ashethan, Luster, Inviso Trump (1): fuming NV Biden (11): xp, LotM, Dancedreamer, Xeybozn, Suprak, Corrik, Chris, fuming, Ashethan, Luster, Inviso Trump (2): red sox, charmander PA Biden (10): xp, LotM, Dancedreamer, Xeybozn, Corrik, charmander, Chris, fuming, Luster, Inviso Trump (3): Suprak, red sox, Ashethan NE-2 Biden (9): xp, LotM, Dancedreamer, Xeybozn, Suprak, Corrik, Chris, fuming, Ashethan Trump (4): red sox, charmander, Luster, Inviso AZ Biden (9): xp, LotM, Xeybozn, Suprak, Corrik, Chris, Ashethan, Luster, Inviso Trump (4): Dancedreamer, red sox, charmander, fuming ME-2 Biden (7): xp, LotM, Xeybozn, Suprak, Chris, Luster, Inviso Trump (6): Dancedreamer, Corrik, red sox, charmander, fuming, Ashethan NC Biden (5): xp, LotM, Xeybozn, Chris, Inviso Trump (8): Dancedreamer, Suprak, Corrik, red sox, charmander, fuming, Ashethan, Luster GA Biden (3): xp, LotM, Chris Trump (10): Dancedreamer, Xeybozn, Suprak, Corrik, red sox, charmander, fuming, Ashethan, Luster, Inviso TX Biden (3): LotM, Xeybozn, Chris Trump (10): xp, Dancedreamer, Suprak, Corrik, red sox, charmander, fuming, Ashethan, Luster, Inviso OH Biden (3): LotM, Ashethan, Luster Trump (10): xp, Dancedreamer, Xeybozn, Suprak, Corrik, red sox, charmander, Chris, fuming, Inviso FL Biden (2): xp, LotM Trump (11): Dancedreamer, Xeybozn, Suprak, Corrik, red sox, charmander, Chris, fuming, Ashethan, Luster, Inviso IA Biden (1): LotM Trump (12): xp, Dancedreamer, Xeybozn, Suprak, Corrik, red sox, charmander, Chris, fuming, Ashethan, Luster, Inviso ~~~ Senate xp: https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-election/qyYBRq [50-48-2 runoffs] Suprak: +3 net for Dems (-AL, +CO, AZ, ME, NC) [50-50] LotM: https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-election/5nQ22M [54-46] Corrik: https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-election/5XL9L5 [50-50; Clarified that WV for Dems was an error] ~~~ House xp: +13 net for Dems. Suprak: +2 net for Republicans --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? ... Copied to Clipboard!
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UshiromiyaEva 11/03/20 12:21:47 AM #94: |
... Copied to Clipboard!
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xp1337 11/03/20 12:31:48 AM #95: |
Also, just for fun after all that heavy data stuff.
My two themes for today. Early Voting/Election Day: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N5Xj9XhobQg Election Day, Polls Begin Closing/Results coming in: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4w6r6DkEw0g --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? ... Copied to Clipboard!
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UshiromiyaEva 11/03/20 12:33:33 AM #96: |
Just to reaffirm to everyone that GA voter suppression is still a bid geal.
https://twitter.com/jduffyrice/status/1323394561021009920?s=19 --- ACAB ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Metal_DK 11/03/20 12:45:20 AM #97: |
i can see cobb county going blue again. Not fulton population but i do think georgia is in play. Lean Trump, but just like 2016, Georgia might be the last state east of the Mississippi to be called. I believe Georgia was called after Florida in 2016 right?
--- Casual Revolution 2007 - 2016 ... Copied to Clipboard!
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LordoftheMorons 11/03/20 12:49:29 AM #98: |
The 538 forecast has been finalized:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/ --- Congrats to azuarc, GotD2 Guru champ! ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Crossfiyah 11/03/20 12:57:51 AM #99: |
Oh are we doing prediction maps?
https://www.270towin.com/maps/vpzmw --- Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz" ... Copied to Clipboard!
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LordoftheMorons 11/03/20 12:58:20 AM #100: |
House prediction: let's go with 246 Dems (+13), which is giving them everything toss up and better on 538
--- Congrats to azuarc, GotD2 Guru champ! ... Copied to Clipboard!
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LordoftheMorons 11/03/20 1:00:00 AM #101: |
... Copied to Clipboard!
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