Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 334: save_us.pa

(+) Yeah! (+)

The 5th Circuit already rejected that appeal in Texas. Looks like they were ready to take these cases as they come in!

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Oh, right, speaking of 538, I said I'd do this but I forgot lol.

270towin map using 538's polling averages: https://www.270towin.com/maps/P0yJQ

Scale:
Lead: < 3% = Tilt [Leader]
Lead: [3.0, 5.9] = Lean
Lead: [6.0, 9.9] = Likely
Lead: >= 10 = Safe

Notes: Nebraska's 1st District has a single poll of Trump+2 so I had no choice to roll with that. NE-3 on the other hand is the only place with zero polls so I just manually made it Safe R.

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https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-2020-presidential-election-forecast/

In particular, Nate talks about how the map changes for a typical polling error (3 points) in the national vote in each candidates' favor:

+3 error for Trump: 279-259 Biden, with Biden winning back MI, WI, PA
+3 error for Biden: 413-125 Biden, which matches my prediction (and in fact, Biden would win all of his states here by at least two points)

So my map is actually less out on a limb than the Trump victory maps per 538...!

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repost from NGamer topic:

Here's my map:

https://www.270towin.com/maps/P0yX9

281-257 for Biden, AKA basically one state decides it, Michigan or PA

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https://www.newsweek.com/trump-supporters-that-harassed-biden-bus-were-armed-operation-organized-private-facebook-group-1544215

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https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/1323280128634462213?s=21

Imagine if Biden loses the election for a stance as bold as we shouldnt have new fracking and should try to transition towards more renewable sources of energy some time in the future.

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It was actually only just "we shouldn't have new fracking on federal land", even

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A subset of Trump's greatest hits:

https://twitter.com/brianklaas/status/1323350194075914247

Amazing to me that this (and basically the entire campaign) have entirely memory-holed the fact that Trump was (very justifiably) impeached earlier this year!

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LordoftheMorons posted...

entirely memory-holed the fact that Trump was (very justifiably) impeached earlier this year!

there was that time we almost went to war with iran this year too

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xp1337 posted...

there was that time we almost went to war with iran this year too

This happened in like the first week of 2020

Kind of set the tone for the year

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KamikazePotato posted...

This happened in like the first week of 2020

Kind of set the tone for the year

It literally all started December 31, so yeah.

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https://twitter.com/DavidBHayter/status/1323538702514102272

Do it for Snake.

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Good morning America.

In before Trump doesn't concede

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https://twitter.com/ben_rosen/status/1323382116336324608

Pepsi wins.

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Fuck Trump.

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https://twitter.com/yamiche/status/1323494669767106560?s=21

lmao

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StartTheMachine posted...

In before Trump doesn't concede

Do people honestly believe this will happen?

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Anyway, here's YouGov's MRP model based on 99,049 interviews.

https://today.yougov.com/2020-presidential-election

The comparisons with 2016 are helpful too. They have Kansas as the biggest swing away from Trump which is worth noting.

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DeepsPraw posted...

Do people honestly believe this will happen?

See you in 20 hours bud

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DeepsPraw posted...

Do people honestly believe this will happen?

A lifelong loser who has built his entire existence around an alternate reality that he is, in fact, a winner, being forced to admit that he lost something that's impossible to spin without crying about cheating that doesn't exist outside of his own tactics and refusing to accept the facts?

Yes, I believe it will happen.

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StartTheMachine posted...

See you in 20 hours bud

hmm I think I'm confusing "concede" with "abdicate". Trump will definitely protest the results as long as he can if things don't go his way, but I don't see him illegally clinging to power come January

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He won't be able to illegally cling to power (I hope), but he's going to cry about the results being fraudulent the entire time, and probably for a while after he's out of office (assuming he loses)

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yeah that's true

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DeepsPraw posted...

Do people honestly believe this will happen?

If Trump loses, he might leave office without starting any violence. But he will never admit that he actually lost fairly.
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DeepsPraw posted...

hmm I think I'm confusing "concede" with "abdicate". Trump will definitely protest the results as long as he can if things don't go his way, but I don't see him illegally clinging to power come January

Oh yeah duh

No Trump will not somehow be able to cling to power if he loses, voter suppression notwithstanding

Possible Supreme Court shenanigans aren't that farfetched though considering they already decided an election once

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https://www.270towin.com/maps/DJkA3

heres what my gut says.

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Suprak the Stud posted...

https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/1323280128634462213?s=21

Imagine if Biden loses the election for a stance as bold as we shouldnt have new fracking and should try to transition towards more renewable sources of energy some time in the future.

Except that wasn't his initial stance.

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Suprak the Stud posted...

Too late! It's already locked in!

Lol I was wondering why he said 51 when it was 50-50 when I finished it.

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It would be absolutely hilarious if McConnell lost, though...!

Unfortunately he won't

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RCP thread, tying into what someone (LTM maybe?) brought up about the fact that they laughably excluded the final NYT poll from their final average:

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1323601603249713152

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House +9 Dems.

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Checked again and RCP has Biden +1.2 in PA, including only six polls (two of which are Rasmussen and Trafalgar, and three of the four polls that have ever had Trump up after May, the other of which was from one of the same pollsters). Compare this with Biden +4.7 from 538.

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DeepsPraw posted...

Do people honestly believe this will happen?

Its not far-fetched when the current president of the United States has said this on more than one occasion.

DeepsPraw posted...

hmm I think I'm confusing "concede" with "abdicate". Trump will definitely protest the results as long as he can if things don't go his way, but I don't see him illegally clinging to power come January

If he had the power and support to cling to power, he totally would

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I know so many Trump supporters that I asked if they were voting and they said no cuz fuck the government they don't even register. Lol.

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Did they vote in 2016?

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My sister lives in Philadelphia, and she said they're rejecting mail in ballots there, and not telling people their votes didn't count. Her and a bunch of other people are trying to call those people with rejected ballots to let them know they have to vote in person today.

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RaidenGarai posted...

My sister lives in Philadelphia, and she said they're rejecting mail in ballots there, and not telling people their votes didn't count. Her and a bunch of other people are trying to call those people with rejected ballots to let them know they have to vote in person today.

I figure it's a longshot, but was she given any indication of the rejection rate?

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From what I understand is that mail in ballots need to be dropped into a 24 hour drop box today to be counted for sure today.

Mail in ballots sent out today go into a separate pile for counting.

This is due to lawsuits regarding them because PA doesn't want their results nullified if these votes are mixed in and a ruling comes out against them.

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LordoftheMorons posted...

I figure it's a longshot, but was she given any indication of the rejection rate?

Not sure, I can ask her.

Edit: Sent her a text, will update if/when she replies.

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RaidenGarai posted...

He won't be able to illegally cling to power (I hope), but he's going to cry about the results being fraudulent the entire time, and probably for a while after he's out of office (assuming he loses)

For a while? I wouldn't be surprised if it continued until his dying day along with fake news, antifa, crowd sizes, hunter biden, her emails, illegal spying, and witchhunt.

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RaidenGarai posted...

Not sure, I can ask her.

Edit: Sent her a text, will update if/when she replies.

Thanks!

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https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1323611577141121025

(also he sounds like shit)

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So good news is that it's not as bad as it sounds now that I got the information directly from her. I originally got the story secondhand from my Mom, who made things sound a lot worse than they were. Here's what my sister had to say.

"It's on the public record that their ballots were rejected and why. Whether or not people got their notices or paid attention to them is unclear. so I'm doing phone banking for some of the day today to call those people to make sure they know their ballots are rejected, and help them figure out how to vote if they haven't already resolved the ballot rejection.
I don't know how much of it is shady. This is apparently something that's done every time"

She doesn't know the actual rejection rate yet, but said she'd try to find out when she gets there to work her shift.

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My polling station is packed beyond belief. People parking down over the hillside. Lol. Maybe I'll wait a bit.

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I have a feeling that today is just day 1 or what will be election week/month.

So if you're anxious right now prepare to get well acquainted with that anxiety!

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Corrik7 posted...

My polling station is packed beyond belief. People parking down over the hillside. Lol. Maybe I'll wait a bit.

Do you know if there are fewer polling locations than 2016? Presumably even with increased total turnout the election day turnout should be considerably less than last time.

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No idea if we're still posting maps, but here's some more predictions:

Senate: https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-election/M3YYXa
(No winner picked in Georgia special election because it goes to a runoff.)

House: https://www.270towin.com/2020-house-election/j59XnxM
(TL:DR - Dems gain 13 seats, GOP loses 7)
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LordoftheMorons posted...

Do you know if there are fewer polling locations than 2016? Presumably even with increased total turnout the election day turnout should be considerably less than last time.

Nah. Mine is the same as always with the same coverage as always. They did move the venue down the street, but I have never not pulled and and just walked reasonably in. They said there is a 30 minute wait right now.

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Hmm I guess covid precautions are also likely slowing things down, and I wouldn't be surprised if more people than usual decided to vote first thing in the morning this year.

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