Board 8 > think you know the contests well? here's some character battle contest trivia.

(+) Yeah! (+)

How is Team Fortress's standings? They usually get a few of their entrants in, and I don't think any of them ever won.

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_SecretSquirrel posted...

How is Team Fortress's standings? They usually get a few of their entrants in, and I don't think any of them ever won.

Heavy is 0-3 and Spy is 0-2.

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in an alternate universe where Neku beat Laharl, Disgaea would be at 0 - 9 too

but in our reality as far as I can tell there may not be a series other than Zero Wing with a record worse than 0 - 5... CATS is just that good at being bad.
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LeonhartFour posted...

also Portal actually has had three NPCs

did you forget Wheatley lost to Crash Bandicoot in 2013?

because I did until just now!

I asked about games and that's why I said Portal/Portal 2 because each one has two characters

I had to ask about games and not series because of FF5

This reminded me that I want to get Cid Highwind back into a contest and pray he doesn't draw a underseeded Noble Nine member again. Though it's probably better to go for someone who was in part 1 of the remake.

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MoogleKupo141 posted...

in an alternate universe where Neku beat Laharl, Disgaea would be at 0 - 9 too

but in our reality as far as I can tell there may not be a series other than Zero Wing with a record worse than 0 - 5... CATS is just that good at being bad.

Assuming we aren't counting advancing in second as a 'win', I believe Warcraft characters are a mighty 0-8, 0-9 if we include Rivalry Rumble.

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That has been counted as a win though, except for in the final where you didn't advance anywhere.

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yeah, it's zero wing.

second is interesting though. you can quibble with the games if you want, but "mario rpg" is 0-8. that's Geno at 0-6 and Fawful at 0-2.


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by the way, I am taking top 10 votes predictions for games. I'll hopefully have it done by the end of the day.

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ctesjbuvf posted...

This reminded me that I want to get Cid Highwind back into a contest and pray he doesn't draw a underseeded Noble Nine member again. Though it's probably better to go for someone who was in part 1 of the remake.

Which means it's finally Red XIII's time

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Well, ever since we got Cid Highwind into that contest, I've thought Red XIII would be my pick if I ever won the guru and could pick a character.

Now is probably a good and easy time to put in some effort in and make a push for it for it.

But I also want to get Barret in again. The rest of the main cast gets in regardless.

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transience posted...

by the way, I am taking top 10 votes predictions for games. I'll hopefully have it done by the end of the day.

I'll go FFVII, OoT, SSBM, FFX, LttP, CT as the ones I feel pretty sure will be there.

Then maybe Mario 3, Brawl (since it made it to the end or near the end in 2009 and 2010), MGS1, and...Hmmm...that 10th one is tough. I'll go with Mario World, maybe?

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Leonhart4 posted...

I'll go FFVII, OoT, SSBM, FFX, LttP, CT as the ones I feel pretty sure will be there.

Yeah, these all seem obvious. I also agree with Mario 3 and Brawl. For the last two, I'll guess FF6 and also Mario World, I suppose.

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I thought about FFVI, but it had a bad 2009 showing. I'm not sure you can make this list if you had a bad 2009 showing just because the vote totals there are so much higher than every other games contest.

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Speaking of guru picks and FFV, thats probably what Id go with for a games contest!

And then be screwed by an secret series cap...!

Not sure how good itd be, but it might be able to win a match which I believe would be well above the strength of the average guru nom?

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I wonder if Allen might overlook a series cap hypothetically to let the guru pick get in. He reads the board some and probably knows the concept exists.
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MoogleKupo141 posted...

I wonder if Allen might overlook a series cap hypothetically to let the guru pick get in. He reads the board some and probably knows the concept exists.

considering he deliberately kept Sonic 3 & Knuckles out in 2015, I doubt it

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I don't think there's a huge difference in votes gotten from winning a 2004 match to winning a 2009 match, again, because 4-ways.

Though I'm not sure FFVI ever got far enough to get here.

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ctesjbuvf posted...

I don't think there's a huge difference in votes gotten from winning a 2004 match to winning a 2009 match, again, because 4-ways.

Though I'm not sure FFVI ever got far enough to get here.

In Mario 3's first round match in 2004, it got 61,000 votes.

In Mario 3's first round match in 2009, it got 89,000 votes.

The jump from 70-80k to 110-120k balances out the format and then some.

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Yeah, there's more potential in 2009, but it depends a lot on who you drew early. Advancing in the latter rounds doesn't make as big a difference.

Divisions by era makes early games benefit a lot more because most of the stuff there is just as weak as it gets. A Monkey Island game advanced with SMB3 in that poll!

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FFVI's biggest problem is that it didn't get easy early round opponents to blow out. It got saddled with Link's Awakening from the start and then got dropped in with LttP.

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side rant: you know what's obnoxious? games with duplicate names. God of War and God of War are different games. so are Doom and DOOM.

I'm going to combine the remakes/remasters, too. it's not going to matter much but I'd rather have the same RE2 and Persona 4.

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Thankfully there aren't too many of those!

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tell that to Pokemon

Pokemon Diamond/Pearl
Pokemon Diamond/Pearl/Platinum
Pokemon Gold/Silver
Pokemon Gold/Silver/Crystal
Pokemon Gold/Silver/Crystal
Pokemon Gold/Silver/Crystal Version
Pokemon HeartGold / SoulSilver Version
Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow
Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow/Green Version
Pokemon Ruby/Sapphire/Emerald

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I'm 99% sure Zelda 1 beats out FFVI, since it got farther than FFVI in every contest other than 2015 (where FFVI admittedly got a bunch of matches while Zelda 1 got none) where votals were terrible, and had matches like Zelda/Adventure.

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I'd honestly give Wind Waker an outside shot at the top ten. Its main problem is that it got stuck with Melee in 2009 and went out in round 2, but it did well in 2004, 2010, and 2015.

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Im not even sure whos been in the most matches. it might be FFX or Melee?

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okay, I have some data. I need to do some work to get it ready for visualization. I should have it ready sometime this evening.

for now, some more trivia. who has more votes?

Final Fantasy VII | Ocarina of Time

Final Fantasy X | Super Smash Bros. Melee

Super Mario Bros. 3 | Super Mario World | Super Mario 64

Undertale | Starcraft

Metroid Prime | Super Metroid

Final Fantasy VI | The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker

The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion | The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim

Super Smash Bros. Brawl | Pokemon RBY

The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past | Chrono Trigger

Metal Gear Solid 1 | Metal Gear Solid 3 | Resident Evil 4

The Legend of Zelda | The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask

Fallout 3 | Super Mario RPG

Metal Gear Solid 2 | Shadow of the Colossus

Final Fantasy VIII | Final Fantasy IX


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Final Fantasy VII | Ocarina of Time (OoT dropped early in 2004, and I don't think it makes up the difference in 2015)

Final Fantasy X | Super Smash Bros. Melee (This one's tough, but I think FFX gains more from making the finals of the 2009 contest than it loses from exiting 2015 in Round 3.)

Super Mario Bros. 3 | Super Mario World | Super Mario 64 (Another tough one, but Mario 64 is probably the most consistent of the 90s Mario standouts in terms of exiting points)

Undertale | Starcraft (Undertale's rallies were huge, but Starcraft had a decent sized rally itself, and a couple extra contest appearances to boot)

Metroid Prime | Super Metroid (Prime has been consistently better, particularly at avoiding SFF, though Super Metroid is probably the stronger game now. Oh, and it's got a GotD apperance as well)

Final Fantasy VI | The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker (Again, a GotD appearance is going to make a huge difference here)

The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion | The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim (Both were in different GotDs, but even though Skyrim went further in GotD and in 2015, Oblivion's 2009 appearances are what makes the difference for me)

Super Smash Bros. Brawl | Pokemon RBY (Brawl being in every round of GotD is huge, while RBY got cut short in 2015)

The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past | Chrono Trigger (Chrono Trigger going out early in 09 whereas LttP making the finals makes up for any contests CT outlasted LttP)

Metal Gear Solid 1 | Metal Gear Solid 3 | Resident Evil 4 (I think MGS3 outlasted RE4 in GotD and 2015, so I don't think it's RE4. The question is whether or not MGS got more votes in 2004 than MGS3 did in 2010 and the additional match in 2015, and I think MGS3 likely did)

The Legend of Zelda | The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask (This one feels like a trap. The thing is, Majora's early exit in 2009 when votals were high makes this closer than it should be. LoZ made it further in that contest, and made the division finals in 2004 when Majora was on the sidelines. But since then, LoZ has been inactive while Majora won GotD1 and participated in 2015. That said, I'd be willing to take Majora's Mask if it made a couple extra rounds in 2015, but it didn't.)

Fallout 3 | Super Mario RPG (Making the semis in GotD was more lucrative than making the semis in 2015. SMRPG has a couple extra early round matches to play with, but I don't think that's quite enough to make the difference.)

Metal Gear Solid 2 | Shadow of the Colossus (I don't remember what MGS2 did in 2009, but it's got to be better than SotC's Round 1 exit, which is where there's potential for MGS2 to make up the disparsity that SotC would have built in its GotD run)

Final Fantasy VIII | Final Fantasy IX (I can't remember what FFIX did in 2009, but it went further in 2015 and has a GotD appearance.)

I'm sure I'm wrong on a bunch of these since I didn't try too hard to look for trap options, and I feel like I used the extra GotD appearance a bit too much to justify some of these picks.

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Final Fantasy VII | Ocarina of Time
Final Fantasy X | Super Smash Bros. Melee
Super Mario Bros. 3 | Super Mario World | Super Mario 64 - Division by era should give SMB3 the edge here
Undertale | Starcraft - Smells like a trap. IIRC modern rallied entires usually only have a lot of votes when compared to modern vote totals
Metroid Prime | Super Metroid - Super Metroid's break out was after vote totals crashed. It famously got stuck with SMK in 2009 as well
Final Fantasy VI | The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker - Division by era means FF6 gets stuck with killers
The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion | The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim
Super Smash Bros. Brawl | Pokemon RBY - RBY ran into OoT early in 2009. It famously stood up but it will still hurt vote totals.
The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past | Chrono Trigger - No clue!
Metal Gear Solid 1 | Metal Gear Solid 3 | Resident Evil 4 - No clue!
The Legend of Zelda | The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask - Also feels like a trap. I'm guessing that Adventure match counted for a lot.
Fallout 3 | Super Mario RPG
Metal Gear Solid 2 | Shadow of the Colossus - No clue!
Final Fantasy VIII | Final Fantasy IX - I don't recall FF8's contest history very well.
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FFVIII destroyed FFIX directly in 2009. Not sure how much of a difference that ends up making, but I'd bet on that making the difference over FFIX lasting a little longer in 2015.

Oh wait, FFIX was in GOTD1, wasn't it? Darn, that probably makes the difference then.

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if you want bonus points, you can add FF1 and FF4 to that one!

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Hmmm...FF1 did pretty well in 2004 and 2009. I don't think it would be FFIV regardless. It wasn't in 2004 at all and it's not like it went deep in 2015.

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Yeah, FF1 has to take it, since it has a decent 04 run, which is worth more than FF4's 2015 run. FF1 also would have less competition thanks to Division By Eras in 09.

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I'll give people a couple more hours if they want to guess

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Final Fantasy VII | Ocarina of Time - OoT getting knocked out early in 2004 due to the bad format might wind up making the difference here.

Final Fantasy X | Super Smash Bros. Melee - I think Melee's got a shot at being 3rd behind FFVII/OoT, but FFX should be top 5, too.

Super Mario Bros. 3 | Super Mario World | Super Mario 64 - I think Mario 3 going deeper in 2004 makes the difference here, especially since Mario 64 got 80/20'd by OoT in 2004. The vote totals in 2015 were too low for Mario 3's early exit to matter, I think.

Undertale | Starcraft - I'd guess Starcraft simply because it's been in three contests.

Metroid Prime | Super Metroid - Super Metroid had some really bad losses to LttP in 2004 and 2009. Plus, Prime has a deep run in GotD.

Final Fantasy VI | The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker - WW being in GotD might be the difference maker here.

The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion | The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim - Oblivion has been in three different contests and did fairly well in 2009 and 2010.

Super Smash Bros. Brawl | Pokemon RBY - I think R/B/Y missing GotD hurts more than Brawl missing 2015.

The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past | Chrono Trigger - I think LttP getting to the final in 2009 might push it over the top.

Metal Gear Solid 1 | Metal Gear Solid 3 | Resident Evil 4 - I don't think it's RE4 at any rate, but it could be either MGS game.

The Legend of Zelda | The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask - Majora's poor 2009 performance probably hurts it more than LoZ missing 2015 since MM also missed 2004.

Fallout 3 | Super Mario RPG - Mario RPG going out early in 2009 probably costs it here.

Metal Gear Solid 2 | Shadow of the Colossus - I don't think MGS2 has ever made it past round 2.

Final Fantasy VIII | Final Fantasy IX - GotD probably gives FFIX the edge here.
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Final Fantasy VII | Ocarina of Time - Yeah, it's much better to have two rounds in 2004 than two rounds in 2015.

Final Fantasy X | Super Smash Bros. Melee - the closest decision of this batch, alongside Undertale/Starcraft.

Super Mario Bros. 3 | Super Mario World | Super Mario 64 - SMB3 easily had the furthest run in 2004, got to break 75% in a 2009 match (iirc), and has all around drawn the most fodder. This one shouldn't even be close.

Undertale | Starcraft

Metroid Prime | Super Metroid

Final Fantasy VI | The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker

The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion | The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim

Super Smash Bros. Brawl | Pokemon RBY

The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past | Chrono Trigger - CT was just that bad in 2009, and only has a one-round advantage in the other two, which isn't enough. Once again, these two shouldn't even be close.

Metal Gear Solid 1 | Metal Gear Solid 3 | Resident Evil 4

The Legend of Zelda | The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask - Zelda 1 got some highly fortunate draws and massive blowouts in the big two, and Majora's GotD advantage means less when it's all night matches in which it failed to break 60% once past Round 2.

Fallout 3 | Super Mario RPG

Metal Gear Solid 2 | Shadow of the Colossus - two rounds in 2004+2009 > two rounds in GotD 1

Final Fantasy VIII | Final Fantasy IX

I decided to think about these a bit more than my original top 10 guesses (which would now have Wind Waker and Twilight Princess over FF6 and Mario World if I were to revise them). GotD 1 swayed many of these decisions, since it's responsible for a good 100,000 votes the other games didn't have enough chances in other contests to make up.

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MetalmindStats posted...

two rounds in 2004+2009

MGS2 lost in round 1 in 2004!

It was utterly destroyed, in fact.

And SotC went 4 rounds in GotD1!

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LeonhartFour posted...

MGS2 lost in round 1 in 2004!

It was utterly destroyed, in fact.

And SotC went 4 rounds in GotD1!

I was measuring the net advantages each game had in comparison, not their exact placements. MGS2 popped up in 2004 and advanced a round further in 2009, balancing out SotC's two-round advantage in GotD 1.

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https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/2533654/

I extended this one to 20 and color coded the bars by franchise. enjoy!

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SotC also has a one round advantage in 2015!

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dang OoT blowing past FFVII at the end was so sad

but I got 9 of the top ten right!

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that doesn't happen without Undertale boosting votes like crazy

to say nothing about it not happening if Melee doesn't beat FF7

damn you 2015

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2015 really was the worst games contest

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Final Fantasy VII | Ocarina of Time

the viz shows this one well - FF7 has a pretty sizable lead until the 2015 run swung it to OOT by very slim margins.

Final Fantasy X | Super Smash Bros. Melee

FFX was actually ahead after the CT/Melee match by a few votes. Melee's BS semifinals run ended up making this not especially close, with Melee ahead by about 150k and not likely to lose that edge anytime soon.

Super Mario Bros. 3 | Super Mario World | Super Mario 64

these guys are 7-8-9 in the rankings but it isn't super close.

Mario 3 - 550,537
Mario World - 513,541
Mario 64 - 469,412

if Mario 64 doesn't get slammed by Ocarina in 2004, it's probably ahead. Mario 3 edges out Mario World thanks to putting up the best result in 2009's round 1. it helps when you face brutal competition. I can remember picking Mario 3 in my Crew writeup with like 118% or something.

Undertale | Starcraft

this actually isn't close at all.

Undertale - 439,538 - 11th place
Starcraft - 288,771 - 25th place

Metroid Prime | Super Metroid

this is maybe closer than you would think because Super Metroid had a killer round 1 in 2004 before getting annihilated by LTTP. Super Metroid has one of the most cursed paths in contest history, always running into Nintendo SFF, but it's not too far behind despite all that.

Metroid Prime - 310,099 - 23rd place
Super Metroid - 250,193 - 31st place

Final Fantasy VI | The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker

FF6 was never behind Wind Waker, though it was close after 2010. they were only separated by a few thousand votes when their 2015 match happened, and FF6 never looked back.

The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion | The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim

Skyrim - 230,491 - 36th place
Oblivion - 191,047 - 42nd place

this is one of the few matchups that actually flipped during the 2020 contest. Skyrim was behind about 50,000 votes coming into GOTD2 but picked up 98,150 votes in 2020, good for third in the contest.

Super Smash Bros. Brawl | Pokemon RBY

fun fact: Brawl actually got the most votes during GOTD. I think it's the only contest entrant that didn't win its contest but got the most votes, second bracket types of results notwithstanding. Brawl was a monster in the day, and was only 15,000 votes behind Melee despite not being in the 2004 contest.

The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past | Chrono Trigger

I think this result might have flipped if CT had made its 2015 run.

Metal Gear Solid 1 | Metal Gear Solid 3 | Resident Evil 4

RE4 - 360,669 votes - 17th place
MGS1 - 333,600 votes - 19th place
MGS3 - 332,947 votes - 20th place

RE4 has a surprisingly good set of results thanks to really fortuitous bracket placement. it made round 4 or better in three straight contests.

MGS3 was painfully close to beating MGS1 in total votes despite not being in the 2004 bracket, and would have done it if it could have gotten by Mario RPG in 2015. instead it loses out by less than 7,000 votes.

The Legend of Zelda | The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask

Zelda 1 - 433,953 votes - 12th place
Majora's Mask - 422,085 votes - 13th place

I didn't post my predictions but I had Zelda 1 in the top 10 until I dropped it to 11th for Undertale. (neither made it, of course). Zelda 1 had the best blowout of 2004 round 1, and also the best blowout of 2004 round 2.

Majora would be on top of it had proper 24 hour matches instead of 12 hour ones.

Fallout 3 | Super Mario RPG

as someone else said, making it to the semifinals in 2010 > making it to the semifinals in 2015. Mario RPG had the benefit of making the 2004 bracket but got unlucky and ran into Chrono Trigger too early. though honestly, with division by era it would have run into LTTP or FF6 early and still gotten rocked, so maybe it's really only unlucky for coming out on the SNES. its real struggle was getting stuck with Goldeneye in 2009, a game that it's ahead of in total votes.

Metal Gear Solid 2 | Shadow of the Colossus

the following is not a typo.

Metal Gear Solid 2 - 207,474 votes, 39th place
Shadow of the Colossus - 204,738 votes, 40th place

Final Fantasy VIII | Final Fantasy IX

Final Fantasy IX - 231,725 votes - 35th place
Final Fantasy VIII - 159,934 votes - 49th place

for the record, here are the Final Fantasy games in vote order:

Final Fantasy VII
Final Fantasy X
Final Fantasy VI
Final Fantasy
Final Fantasy IX
Final Fantasy Tactics
Final Fantasy VIII
Final Fantasy IV
Final Fantasy XII
Final Fantasy Tactics Advance
Final Fantasy XV
Final Fantasy XIV Online: A Realm Reborn
Crisis Core: Final Fantasy VII
Dissidia: Final Fantasy

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wait dissidia was in a contest

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The Mana Sword posted...

wait dissidia was in a contest

Yeah, it snuck into GOTD1 as a 15 seed and lost to CoDBlOps.

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forget everything else in this topic, that is the most shocking stat

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31 gurus picked it to win

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I'm guessing FF has the most votes as a series just through sheer numbers.

Although I guess Mario has had a lot of games in, too.

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