Board 8 > The Show EP 7 - A Xeno/Persona Classic and Picking the Last Week, w/ azuarc!

(+) Yeah! (+)

KamikazePotato posted...

Xenoblade probably caught a bit of a bandwagon by the time it reached Smash. It resisted the Nintendo SFF hammer a bit too well.

Considering this was the Xenoblade fanbase, I wasn't surprised at all that they refused to bend the knee.
---

Team Rocket Elite posted...

Considering this was the Xenoblade fanbase, I wasn't surprised at all that they refused to bend the knee.

That was kind of my argument for only picking Smash to win 60/40. It's a pretty hardcore fanbase and I think it probably doesn't benefit all that much from Smash (Shulk does, but that's not the same) because it hasn't been accessible to the crowd who was introduced to Shulk in Smash 4.

---

Actually, Division 4 reminds me heavily of this division from 2010.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4081-northeast-division-round-1-tales-of-symphonia-vs-resident
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4139-northeast-division-round-2-tales-of-symphonia-vs-god-of-war
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4140-northeast-division-round-2-grand-theft-auto-iii-vs-half-life
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4168-northeast-division-round-3-god-of-war-vs-half-life-2
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4182-northeast-division-final-metroid-prime-vs-half-life-2

Essentially, the bottom half of the division had a bunch of close and/or debatable matches leading up to the division finals, where Half-Life 2 - having survived the gauntlet - proceeded to overperform like crazy against Metroid Prime. Everything in Half-Life 2's part of the division ended up being highly overrated in the stats and there was no SFF or fanbase overlap required. Persona 4 seems like the Half-Life 2 in this scenario. While Xenoblade might not be at the peak '60-40s its 2015 self' strength that was estimated, I do think that it looks really good in every match EXCEPT the one against the game that just squeaked past two Rockstar games.

---

Yeah, I figure P4G's half of the division probably ends up being overrated. Whenever there's a logjam like that, wonky things happen.

Friendly reminder for everyone from Geralt's half of the division in 2018 whenever the next Character Battle rolls around.

---

Wait you mean SImon Belmont and Bayonetta aren't almost as strong as Auron?

---

Well as Ive spoken about before the pin alone was worth at the absolute minimum an extra 100-120 votes - in reality likely more as Xenoblade is a stronger game than P4Gs previous opponents.

To put it a different way, the last two hours of P4G vs. Xenoblade got 1.5x as many votes as the last two hours of GTAV vs. P4G despite the overall votes being lower due to recovering from the gap. Thats the pin in action.

Secondly P4G had many random updates where after losing ground its votes would spike upwards with these huge cuts then fall back down. There was a 40 vote cut out of nowhere, that doesnt just happen. Xenoblade by contrast only made large single update gains when Europe woke up which were not nearly that big (this was also expected, as its Europe and Xenoblade) and the very last update (could be the P4G effort collapsing). Those P4G cuts were just too big, while Xenoblades gains were typically small and consistent.

There is one element of all this that doesnt get enough credit though: Xenoblade tanked a pinned rally thread, with only a couple of small counter rallies. Shovel Knight needed the developer to tweet about it, Resident Evil 2 needed the front page thread (not pinned) removed. Xenoblade took a major rally head on and won. Thats really impressive.

---

Xenoblade probably naturally had a bigger margin for error than those other two, and Bloodborne was a more effective rally besides anyway.

KamikazePotato posted...

Wait you mean SImon Belmont and Bayonetta aren't almost as strong as Auron?

I discount everyone except Rosalina

---

Alright looks like it will be too difficult to give estimates until we have a completed set of adjusted X-Stats. So let me ask this another way. What do you guys think would be the best anchor to hold even since 2015?

http://www.thengamer.com/xstats/ranks.php?year=2015g

Constant Portal 2, Arkham City, or GTA5? Set BotW for 45% on Ocarina? (I believe @ZeldaTPLink had some stats suggesting it should be around that area.) Then I can use the raw X-Stats for a five year comparison on the wrapup episode.


---

I might be okay with constant Arkham City if it wasn't tied at the hip to TLOU. I'd almost argue for keeping Fire Emblem: Awakening constant more than anything else.

Maybe even Mario Galaxy 2 or MGSV (which might be the biggest surprise of the contest!)
---

Hearthstone

---

I would use Awakening. SMG2 is also a good choice.

---

I'll add to the chorus that I'm also a fan of using fixed SMG2 for my own xstats I used for second chance bracket. Awakening's biggest issue is that there are too many weird Bloodborne rallies and close matches in that division.

Using 2015 xstats, my estimates are
BotW at 40-41
Witcher 3 at 35
Smash/Odyssey at 32-33
Persona 5/Dark Souls at 30-31
ME2/SMG2 at 26-27

LeonhartFour posted...

I might be okay with constant Arkham City if it wasn't tied at the hip to TLOU. I'd almost argue for keeping Fire Emblem: Awakening constant more than anything else.

Maybe even Mario Galaxy 2 or MGSV (which might be the biggest surprise of the contest!)

Yeah, I've been championing MGSV as being legit and I'm glad it seems to be the case. It did slightly better on Dead Cells than HGSS did on Rayman/Celeste and Dead Cells and Celeste finished next to each other in the indie GotY poll, so I've always thought it odd that people were treating MGSV as trash while hyping up HGSS to beat Skyrim.

---

Ngamer64 posted...

Alright looks like it will be too difficult to give estimates until we have a completed set of adjusted X-Stats. So let me ask this another way. What do you guys think would be the best anchor to hold even since 2015?

http://www.thengamer.com/xstats/ranks.php?year=2015g

Constant Portal 2, Arkham City, or GTA5? Set BotW for 45% on Ocarina? (I believe @ZeldaTPLink had some stats suggesting it should be around that area.) Then I can use the raw X-Stats for a five year comparison on the wrapup episode.

I was straight up using BotW = Ocarina in a lot of my picks and it did not live up to that prediction, so 45% of Ocarina is probably around where it stands. Not the most precise barometer, though.

GTA is not very reliable because GTA just acts weird every constest, I think.

Batman might be, since it acted constantly versus TLOU, and could even be used my @KamikazePotato to calculate those Div 7 stats maybe.

Portal 2 also feels like something that has no reason to change, but I recall the 2015 stats for Portal being weird as hell (It was giving P5 around 65% against it), so I trust the ones from this contest way more than the ones from 2015.

Well, Portal 2 is closer to Mario Galaxy 2 than it was in 2015, so one of them changed. I'd argue it was Portal 2 because otherwise you have Sonic 2 fighting tooth and nail with Galaxy 2 and hanging 45% on Persona 5.

Which I guess isn't entirely impossible, but I wouldn't bet on it!
---

I'm not sure if I like fixed SMG2 because imo anything Nintendo is likely to have boosted after the Switch, even if the game was not in the Switch. Just look at the last Character Battle.

ZeldaTPLink posted...

I'm not sure if I like fixed SMG2 because imo anything Nintendo is likely to have boosted after the Switch, even if the game was not in the Switch. Just look at the last Character Battle.

and yet here it is only worth 55% on Mario Kart 8!

if it's stronger than 2015 I wouldn't imagine it's anything notable
---

Constant SMG2 is approximately constant MGSV.

If you take SMG2 to boost more than 1 percent, you'll be taking MSGV to boost and that seems unlikely. My guess is that they are both around the same level as 2015.

---

In 2015, Mario Galaxy 2 was worth 59.23% on MGSV. In 2020, Mario Galaxy 2 is worth 57.11% on MGSV.

In 2015, Mario Galaxy 2 was worth 57.59% on Portal 2. In 2020, Mario Galaxy 2 is worth 53.07% on Portal 2.

In 2015, Mario Galaxy was worth 54.19% on Arkham City. In 2020, Mario Galaxy 2 is worth 56.37% on Arkham City.

So yeah, I'd wager it hasn't changed much. Actually, in most 2015/2020 comparisons, it comes out looking worse! But you can chalk that up to general 2015 wonkiness.
---

wow look at that guy in 11th place looking at a perfect Second Chance bracket
---

What's this about two Bonus Polls? Is that official or just a rumor?


---

Majora vs. BOTW has been confirmed by Allen
---

The picsmiths already got mention of MM vs BotW so that one is confirmed.

Skyrim vs Smash is because TRE made a Oracle Bonus poll asking to predict that one and MM vs BotW, so presumably he knows something due to him being a mod.

---

squexa posted...

Skyrim vs Smash is because TRE made a Oracle Bonus poll asking to predict that one and MM vs BotW, so presumably he knows something due to him being a mod.

I do not. Luster Soldier told me to put that up for safety so I did.
---

Yeah, we are not be asked for pics for Skyrim vs. Ultimate, though I suppose Allen technically wouldn't need us to since he's already got plenty from the previous matches.

---

https://i.imgur.com/91YzTES.mp4

gif of moon for those that missed it

---

HMMMM, a Bronze Medal match would be great, hopefully we get that one as well... but cool to get some bonus content regardless.

And great moon, Zen!


---

azuarc posted...

Oh hey, I forgot how much I hate listening to my own voice. I'm not a stats topic guy, so I'm sure I had a few wild takes, but hopefully I didn't make too big a fool of myself. I had a blast talking to Ng and Yo all night.

And if you're wondering about the myriad of pronunciations during the episode, say "cashew bark" before trying to say my name and you'll probably get it right.

Thanks once again to you guys, and go vote in VGMC.

Your voice sounds weirdly similar to Whiskey Nick's

---

Now I very much expect praise from yoblazer, specifically on getting Zelda's fine behind on the front page.

---

Team Rocket Elite posted...

I do not. Luster Soldier told me to put that up for safety so I did.

Yeah, I suggested including Skyrim/Ultimate just to be safe, in the event it does happen as a bonus match. If that match does happen, we'll at least have predictions on record to calculate a board consensus for the match.

_SecretSquirrel posted...

Yeah, we are not be asked for pics for Skyrim vs. Ultimate, though I suppose Allen technically wouldn't need us to since he's already got plenty from the previous matches.

Indeed, Allen could simply reuse the pics for Skyrim and Ultimate from the matches where they were officially eliminated from the contest.
---

My fashionably late thoughts:

• all-fictional is not a viable idea due to form concerns among other factors
• I'm personally opposed to the idea of an all-fictional character battle, among other reasons because you can't fairly exclude Link from a brand-new format even though he'd inevitably stomp everyone else. Even independent of my personal stance, however, I don't see it as a feasible idea. The main problem from an 'objective' viewpoint is the sheer burden that it forces on Allen, making him add something like 500 new characters to the nomination form. It's not like there's a viable alternative to doing so, either, since having B8ers (eligible for prizes) help would possibly cause legal issues, while not adding such characters at all would just result in casual nominators ignoring broader fictional characters, and why bother at that point?
• l like both Yo's hierarchy and Ng's non-Nintendo voter explanations for Smash Ultimate's resounding win over Mario Odyssey, especially since the latter. had all the intangibles. I think both those points are actually compatible, in fact. As mentioned, it's not a stretch to believe that this was a 50-50 match among Nintendo fans, yet that Smash trumped Mario in the hierarchy, and thus among non-Nintendo fans who had no reason to care about Byleth's addition or Smash's online issues.
• I'm maybe not the best person to make this point given that I also expected God of War to outperform Galaxy 2, but I don't get why so many people thought the former was comfortably ahead of the latter - did Galaxy 2's 2015 loss to Mass Effect really scar that many of us?
• About the discussion of Persona 5-related Guru scenarios, the Rivalry Rumble actually had a three-way tie for champ, where SuperNiceDog himself won out thanks to his tiebreaker.
• On the subject of (user-created) match pictures, greatone's Portal 2 pic was pretty easily my favorite of the whole contest, and oddly one of the few that worked just as well on mobile as on desktop even though most voters vote via mobile these days. I'll also give a biased shoutout to DQXI's cast pic, because its cast is so good.
• I agree with all three star choices this time around (maybe Skyrim a bit less than the rest), but my personal pick for Round 4's star is Dragon Quest XI. I'm hard-pressed to slam BotW's result there too much, just because it went from a potentially Ocarina-slaying tear to a normal contest-winning performance. It's not like that match suggested BotW was actually vulnerable to Witcher 3, so I personally choose to give most of the credit to DQXI for proving itself to be a legitimate midcarder even by all-inclusive standards, and way stronger than FFXV somehow.
• Round 4 was much lighter on deserving turds than deserving stars for me; The Last of Us in particular gets a leak-related mulligan, since it would otherwise have at least justified the debate over Division 7's finals. My personal pick is HGSS; even considering that Skyrim's percent there was the kind that recontextualized its previous underperformances, I don't think a result that barely puts HGSS ahead of Mario Kart 8 is sufficiently justifiable. To put it simply, it's Pokmon, and even post-nostalgia Pokmon should have done more against a non-Nintendo antivote magnet.

---

MetalmindStats posted...

On the subject of (user-created) match pictures, greatone's Portal 2 pic was pretty easily my favorite of the whole contest, and oddly one of the few that worked just as well on mobile as on desktop even though most voters vote via mobile these days

I appreciate the kudos, but that one wasn't mine. I think the credits weren't necessarily given in the correct order, but I did Persona 5's match pic, so whoever was the other person credited got Portal's.

---

_SecretSquirrel posted...

I appreciate the kudos, but that one wasn't mine. I think the credits weren't necessarily given in the correct order, but I did Persona 5's match pic, so whoever was the other person credited got Portal's.

oh uh, 'whoops'

I think that was Cody11533, if I remember correctly at least. I'll instead credit you for showing a different side of Skyrim by getting in both the wagon ride and the arrow to the knee.

---

It still baffles me how many people are just totally against an all fictional character battle. I'm not sure I've heard "Allen would have to add a lot more characters to the database and that would be tough for him" as a reason before though!

---

--Dawn of the FInal Day--
. . . . 6 hours remain . . . .

---

I think if we did all fictional it would be a fucking riot, 2002 part 2, we would nominate all this turbofodder and overrate James Bond to hell and back (or underrate, that's the fun)

---

Honestly, I don't know why we can't have All Fictional Characters, and then put a cap on them. That way, the contest is still predominately video game characters, but we get to inject new blood to the field at last. Designate 16 slots, 2 for each division, and prioritize only those likely to be strong entrants to the field, and screen out any bullshit that's only in shovelware and F2P cash grabs.

---

as long as we are nominating characters who have games I don't see the issue

also let Tony Hawk in i don't care if he isn't "fictional"

allen is right that we dont need jane eyre but not all fictional characters are jane eyre

like what cap do we put on Spongebob's strength

---

Spongebob would be the character equivalent of Minecraft

---

Leonhart4 posted...

Spongebob would be the character equivalent of Minecraft

Not a chance. Old fogies like us still love Spongebob. His show basically IS mainstream meme culture.

---

see? right there we have swirl and leon at each other's fucking throats, both hungry for blood

give us all ficitonal characters allen

---

I guess I'm even older than old because I've never watched a single episode of Spongebob.

I did underestimate his memetic value though

---

Krabby Patties for all if Spongebob upsets Squall

---

Wumbo

---

And Kingdom Hearts III won't even help Squall this time.

I changed my mind.

---

Leonhart4 posted...

I guess I'm even older than old because I've never watched a single episode of Spongebob.

I did underestimate his memetic value though

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sVxJ016xb4Q

---

I'm all for anything that can keep contests fresh. You can't seriously be against All Fictional and think we can just have a normal Character Battle next year and not have it feel repetitive. At best we can exclude Link, but it's still not very fresh.

Same reason why Game of the 90s is a good idea. It has a bunch of entries we haven't had yet.

---

Well, I'll agree in that All Fictional poses a unique challenge when it comes to the nomination database, if we want to do things properly... but it should still be doable. My recommendation would be

• initially seed it with all characters who have made it into an official match
• give B8 a couple days to come up with 32 new characters since 2018 that would be worthy of consideration, add them to the db
• also give us a couple days to pick 32 non-traditional new characters to consider, and put them in there as well
• if anything we forgot gets a rally behind it in the opening week, throw them into the dropdown list as well

I think it would be fine for us to assist like this, without making anyone ineligible for prizes. It would be similar to how we've assisted in the past, like picking characters in 2002 (okay that was Current Events because we didn't exist yet, but same idea) or swapping out games in 2009 (that was the year we did that, right?).

Otherwise someone like me or TRE could take over managing the database, at the cost of going ineligible for prizes. I'm sure we'd both do so without hesitation if SB asked.


---

Leonhart4 posted...

I'm not sure I've heard "Allen would have to add a lot more characters to the database and that would be tough for him" as a reason before though!

Well, the form was already a problem in 2018, when Allen only added something like 20 characters, all on day one. That decision was likely directly responsible for certain characters not making the contest (ex. Max Caulfield), and I believe only 8 characters off the form made 2018's field, none above a 15-seed. Now imagine how much that'll be exacerbated by even Ng's 64-character proposal, let alone the 200-500 we'd need to really do it justice.

swirIdude posted...

Not a chance. Old fogies like us still love Spongebob. His show basically IS mainstream meme culture.

Minecraft is actually surprisingly strong in its own right, and SpongeBob has no truly notable video games, so I do think Minecraft is a good comparison for his likely strength.

ZeldaTPLink posted...

You can't seriously be against All Fictional and think we can just have a normal Character Battle next year and not have it feel repetitive. At best we can exclude Link, but it's still not very fresh.

I mean, for one thing, you can actually justify retiring Link from a normal Character Battle, as opposed to the boring stomp you'd see in an All-Fictional field. For another, I'd rather see it wait until 2022, at which point we'll have four years of new games and fluctuations among existing entrants to consider, plus an up-in-the-air winner.

That being said, there's one scenario in which I'm interested in seeing broader fictional elements in a normal character battle. Assuming a normal 128-entrant 1v1 bracket, instead of each divisional winner moving directly on to face off against each other, have them battle one broader fictional character with a strong video gaming legacy each first. These eight would be Batman, Darth Vader, Donatello, Goku, James Bond, Mickey Mouse, Spider-Man, and I guess Homer Simpson. If the fictional character wins, they move on in the divisional winner's place. This would allow us to gauge whether opening the floodgates is even worthwhile, while also providing the next character battle with its second-chance gimmick.

---

MetalmindStats posted...

Minecraft is actually surprisingly strong in its own right, and SpongeBob has no truly notable video games, so I do think Minecraft is a good comparison for his likely strength.

Believe it or not, Battle for Bikini Bottom from the PS2/Xbox/GC era has actually become a bit of a cult hit in retrospect, to the point where it's actually getting a REMASTER this year.

The fact that there's a licensed game getting a remaster alone is fairly impressive, considering they usually end up in license purgatory, like poor old Goldeneye.

---

MetalmindStats posted...

only 8 characters off the form made 2018's field, none above a 15-seed

(13) Metal Man

---