Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1356

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PostContestUlti
05/04/20 11:01:57 PM
#1:


Resident Evil 2 has a chance!

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/1356-east-division-semifinal-aeris-gainsborough-vs-sonic-the

If only Sonic knew what was coming next.

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~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analyses*~
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~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

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https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/Closest_Wire-to-Wire_Matches

~*All-Time Guru List*~
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/All_Time_Guru_Rankings

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https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/Most_Surprising_Results

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~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends

~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's extrapolated percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

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LeonhartFour
05/05/20 10:10:35 AM
#2:


RE2: I've got nothing more to say to you.

ME2: How 'bout goodbye?

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raptor36000
05/05/20 10:28:57 AM
#3:


After BoTW, I think dark souls is the only game this round with a chance of breaking 70% on its opponent, and that too because I expect last of us to get heavily antivoted.

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mclovinreturns
05/05/20 12:03:56 PM
#4:


RE2 is gaining some traction

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Safer_777
05/05/20 12:04:03 PM
#5:


Eh you think that this will matter?

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Leonhart4
05/05/20 12:11:23 PM
#6:


raptor36000 posted...
After BoTW, I think dark souls is the only game this round with a chance of breaking 70% on its opponent, and that too because I expect last of us to get heavily antivoted.

TLOU might get anti-voted but not THAT much

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deeewooh
05/05/20 12:12:37 PM
#7:


where can you see the voting by country?

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snake_5036
05/05/20 12:14:17 PM
#8:


View detailed results > View map and detailed results > hover over countries

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TooTooP3
05/05/20 12:14:26 PM
#9:


mclovinreturns posted...
RE2 is gaining some traction

Not nearly enough to actually matter. Wouldn't mind it getting ME2 down to 51% since that's what I predicted.
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Leonhart4
05/05/20 12:15:06 PM
#10:


ME2 might get under 52% but RE2 would have to significantly cut to get it down to 51%

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KamikazePotato
05/05/20 12:24:01 PM
#11:


Where can we see our Second Chance brackets?

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Leonhart4
05/05/20 12:26:42 PM
#12:


KamikazePotato posted...
Where can we see our Second Chance brackets?

Probably won't be able to until the first matches end

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The Owner of FF9
05/05/20 12:27:03 PM
#13:


KamikazePotato posted...
Where can we see our Second Chance brackets?
Pretty sure we're going to have to wait til the end of today's match at this point.

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MechanicalWall
05/05/20 12:55:05 PM
#14:


raptor36000 posted...
After BoTW, I think dark souls is the only game this round with a chance of breaking 70% on its opponent, and that too because I expect last of us to get heavily antivoted.
Wot

The Last of Us isn't Fortnite, it's not gonna get antivoted like that

The games this round with a chance of breaking 70 are Mario/Smash with mindbending amounts of SFF.

Realistically I don't there's anything left with a chance of breaking 60 except maaaaaybe Witcher 3, and even then I don't think it happens.

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Captain_Sorzo
05/05/20 12:57:56 PM
#15:


The Last of Us isn't Fortnite, it's not gonna get antivoted like that

If you haven't heard, TLoU 2 has recently been generating quite a bit of controversy due to leaks. To put it mildly, a lot of people dislike the direction the story appears to go.

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MechanicalWall
05/05/20 1:00:29 PM
#16:


I actually haven't heard 'cause I've been running from those leaks and all reactions to them like the plague.

They can't be so bad that a 55-45 match turns into a 70-30... right?

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HaRRicH
05/05/20 1:07:14 PM
#17:


I haven't followed a thing about those TLoU2 leaks, but a friend of mine specifically is warning people against watching videos on TLoU2 because YouTube is recommending some weird videos he doesn't want to watch now.

The Algorithm Factor

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LinkMarioSamus
05/05/20 1:09:55 PM
#18:


MechanicalWall posted...
I actually haven't heard 'cause I've been running from those leaks and all reactions to them like the plague.

They can't be so bad that a 55-45 match turns into a 70-30... right?

Nice choice of words.

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ctesjbuvf
05/05/20 1:38:23 PM
#19:


There's no way it hurts TLoU that much if anything.

It's the first game here and most people that saw the leaks won't change their opinion about the first.

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#20
Post #20 was unavailable or deleted.
KamikazePotato
05/05/20 2:27:49 PM
#21:


Leaks will hurt but only like 1-2% at most. Let's not go crazy here.

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Sharinnegan
05/05/20 2:30:46 PM
#22:


i think DS / TLoU will be around 60 / 40. due to the current situation with Naughty Dog..without that it'd be more like 55 - 45

also just noticed the poll of the day...this indicates Persona 5 could actually be stronger than Skyrim 1 on 1. i'm not entirely sure but i THINK this spread of games is affecting P5 negatively moreso than Skyrim. (especially FF5 which is the most direct case of SFF in the poll). and the difference between them is small enough for that to shift the results.

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Advokaiser
05/05/20 3:45:15 PM
#23:


Today's poll looks oddly good for Skyrim.

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Leonhart4
05/05/20 3:51:14 PM
#24:


Advokaiser posted...
Today's poll looks oddly good for Skyrim.

In what sense? Persona 5 has closed the gap even more from just two years ago.

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squexa
05/05/20 3:56:22 PM
#25:


Leonhart4 posted...
In what sense? Persona 5 has closed the gap even more from just two years ago.

Disgaea 5 was in the poll 2 years ago, which probably hurts Persona 5 more than Devil May Cry 5 today (FFV's percentage also went up from 2 years ago).

And I disagree with the notation that Persona 5 is more hurt by other entrants than Skyrim. Here's a similar poll from 2014 with the "4" games and Persona 4 punched well above its weight:
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5467-whats-your-all-time-favorite-4-game

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foxhead84
05/05/20 4:22:46 PM
#26:


Advokaiser posted...
Today's poll looks oddly good for Skyrim.

Pools like that don't means much....ask yoshi about it
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Advokaiser
05/05/20 4:34:04 PM
#27:


foxhead84 posted...
Pools like that don't means much....ask yoshi about it

Man, Yoshi...

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ctesjbuvf
05/05/20 4:38:35 PM
#28:


We see Mass Effect 2 doing exactly like it was supposed to despite Andromeda and you're thinking The Last of Us fans flip completely on the game because of a leak despite a lot of them avoiding the spoilers.

KP is probably right about 1-2% and it wasn't winning regardless.


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MoogleKupo141
05/05/20 4:41:41 PM
#29:


its messed up that DQV isnt in the poll
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LinkMarioSamus
05/05/20 4:53:45 PM
#30:


If ME2 is constant between 2015 and now, Doom 2016 gets ~32% on MGS3. Which is not really that hard to believe honestly.

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DoctorJimmy133
05/05/20 4:54:59 PM
#31:


Yoshi somehow puts up better percent against the entire Mario cast than he does against just Link. I love it

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TooTooP3
05/05/20 4:56:46 PM
#32:


It's funny because Yoshi isn't even the second strongest Mario character when it comes to these contest, possibly even 4th strongest.
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MechanicalWall
05/05/20 5:26:47 PM
#33:


ctesjbuvf posted...
We see Mass Effect 2 doing exactly like it was supposed to despite Andromeda and you're thinking The Last of Us fans flip completely on the game because of a leak despite a lot of them avoiding the spoilers.

KP is probably right about 1-2% and it wasn't winning regardless.
The only thing that worries me now is the fact that apparently TLOU2's plot is so bad people think the original eats a 10% hit.

Jeez wtf is in those leaks

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ShatteredElysium
05/05/20 5:28:22 PM
#34:


I'd be amazed if it was more than a 2-3% swing. Do people not realize how many votes it takes for it something to go from a 50-55 match to a 65-70 match?
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_SecretSquirrel
05/05/20 5:28:26 PM
#35:


MechanicalWall posted...
The only thing that worries me now is the fact that apparently TLOU2's plot is so bad people think the original eats a 10% hit.

Jeez wtf is in those leaks
I'm not so sure it's the leaks itself, as much as it is all the components that made the leaks possible that people are really mad about.

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ctesjbuvf
05/05/20 5:29:10 PM
#36:


It's definitely also the leaks themselves, but yeah, people are really overestimating how much damage it can do.

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_SecretSquirrel
05/05/20 5:32:31 PM
#37:


https://gamefaqs1.cbsistatic.com/images/contest/gotd-r4/480957.jpg
https://gamefaqs1.cbsistatic.com/images/contest/gotd-r4/458832.jpg

https://gamefaqs1.cbsistatic.com/images/contest/gotd-r4/115427.jpg
https://gamefaqs1.cbsistatic.com/images/contest/gotd-r4/43584.jpg

They aren't up yet, but keep an eye on these URLs for the next set of pictures.

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Janus5k
05/05/20 6:16:19 PM
#38:


Old, but I just realized today's results keep SC from being last in its division

We did it guys, we saved Estelle

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Gall
05/05/20 6:26:52 PM
#39:


This Zelda performance looks good for my "60% in the final" prediction. Now Dark Souls just has to get there.
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MechanicalWall
05/05/20 6:32:06 PM
#40:


Gall posted...
This Zelda performance looks good for my "60% in the final" prediction. Now Dark Souls just has to get there.
I have the same prediction for Zelda in my second bracket

Yah it suddenly looks a lot more vulnerable today but does anyone take Mario Galaxy 2 to obliterate DQXI, for instance? It takes a nutty scenario for Zelda to not stomp its way to the crown

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Leonhart4
05/05/20 6:33:33 PM
#41:


Janus5k posted...
Old, but I just realized today's results keep SC from being last in its division

We did it guys, we saved Estelle

Just in time for the return of user SaveEstelle

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transience
05/05/20 6:49:29 PM
#42:


well, Smash wins the picture but that's to be expected

I guess P4 wins the other one

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_SecretSquirrel
05/05/20 6:50:43 PM
#43:


_SecretSquirrel posted...
https://gamefaqs1.cbsistatic.com/images/contest/gotd-r4/480957.jpg
https://gamefaqs1.cbsistatic.com/images/contest/gotd-r4/458832.jpg

https://gamefaqs1.cbsistatic.com/images/contest/gotd-r4/115427.jpg
https://gamefaqs1.cbsistatic.com/images/contest/gotd-r4/43584.jpg

They aren't up yet, but keep an eye on these URLs for the next set of pictures.
And they are up. I'll give Odyssey the nod for slight picture advantage, as Smash makes the mistake of cramming too much into too little space.

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Leonhart4
05/05/20 6:51:15 PM
#44:


Odyssey's picture is super plain

I love that game and there is just zero hype from that picture

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snake_5036
05/05/20 6:52:44 PM
#45:


The invitation pic in the pic topic is better than what we got for the actual match, honestly

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Advokaiser
05/05/20 6:52:47 PM
#46:


_SecretSquirrel posted...
https://gamefaqs1.cbsistatic.com/images/contest/gotd-r4/43584.jpg

Oh man, OH MAN!

You look amazing, my boy Shulk!

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CaptainOfCrush
05/05/20 6:54:35 PM
#47:


P4's picture features someone who held a lead against a Character Battle champ

goodbye Shulk

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_SecretSquirrel
05/05/20 6:54:36 PM
#48:


snake_5036 posted...
The invitation pic in the pic topic is better than what we got for the actual match, honestly
Yeah, I felt like there was much better options for Odyssey, but at least I know what I am looking at. Smash is a super crammed crop of the mural, and just looks like a blob of colors.

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CaptainOfCrush
05/05/20 6:55:28 PM
#49:


And yeah, it does seem like Allen is opting for "classic style" pics in favor of more creative flair.

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Captain_Sorzo
05/05/20 7:00:59 PM
#50:


We see Mass Effect 2 doing exactly like it was supposed to despite Andromeda and you're thinking The Last of Us fans flip completely on the game because of a leak despite a lot of them avoiding the spoilers.

Main thing going against TLoU is that the leak drama is happening right now. Andromeda was three years ago, whereas TLoU 2 is the game currently in hot water. Neil Druckmann, the game's lead, posted a video on YouTube yesterday that's currently sitting at close to 75% disliked, and if that sort of widespread antipathy is reflected here at all, it will at the very least swing a lot of neutral votes in favor of DS. I'm not saying it'll be a swing of 10% or more, but the game falling 5% or so below predictions seems likely.

I'm saying this as someone who had TLoU winning the division, incidentally.

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