Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1356

(+) Yeah! (+)

SFF matches are always boring. Even if Persona 4 can't beat Smash, it'll make for a better representation of each games strength.

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Come on Xenoblade. Hang on

Xenoblade winning likely puts me on the leaderboard whereas the other result spells the end for my bracket.

Come on Xenoblade. Don't hang on.

Daddy needs some dinero.

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I think Tekken 7 is almost certainly stronger than MK11, and it makes sense considering the former has a distinct fanbase and strong position in the FGC, whereas the latter is so hated it was only going to last one year at Evo, even though Mortal Kombat is the second biggest fighting game franchise. MK11 was purely relying on blind franchise votes from a series that's normally quite a bit stronger than Tekken, and Mario Odyssey was one of the worst possible opponents to do that against, but I don't think that non-transitivity is a strong enough argument against Tekken.

@LusterSoldier (or anyone else) do you have the second chance scoring saved in cache or anywhere else?

@GildedFool it's archived in lines 133-141 of the following paste: https://pastebin.com/cHkNjfBX

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Can't speak for others, but i'm not doing an H rally this time. I did vote for Persona but Xenoblade is also good so i'm okay with either of these winning. Seems like Persona is doing just fine on its own anyway.

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you know, we were talking about smash SFF'ing Xenoblade

...what if Persona wins...then smash gets a picture with Joker in it and ends up SFFing it too?

>_>

Persona 4 over 49% now
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Yeah, Tekken 7 should be stronger, but the two games are weak enough on GameFAQs that franchise votes could give MK11 the win.

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What the hell Nintendrones? Don't let me down and ruin my bracket.

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Wake up Europe

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I'm not even sure Europe could be enough to really save Xenoblade if this continues. It's not like it's winning the UK by a significant amount.

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Let me know when I can start blaming the porn rallies

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What is going on here?
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CaptainOfCrush posted...

Let me know when I can start blaming the porn rallies

Kira_Amaya posted...

Can't speak for others, but i'm not doing an H rally this time.

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The east-west divide in the United States is helping Persona 4 as Eastern states go to sleep first.

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Xenoblade is losing % but the actual lead has been hovering at this level for the past three hours. I can't imagine the day vote favors Persona over a Nintendo game so it needs to take a lead overnight to have a real shot.

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Surprised by these results. Thought Xenoblade would do better than Smash, and its doing 6.5% worse.

I know there was some SFF involved last round, but I would never pick GTA/RDR over Three Houses.

I don't even think it's SFF, or not that much anyway. Fire Emblem just didn't show up this contest. I think stats would suggest that Cuphead gets like 48% on it.

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GoldSlime35 posted...

Surprised by these results. Thought Xenoblade would do better than Smash, and its doing 6.5% worse.

I know there was some SFF involved last round, but I would never pick GTA/RDR over Three Houses.

Could be a bit of a bandwagon effect from beating GTAV.

Still really surprising that out of the five main contenders to win the division, the Guru favorite Three Houses could end up being the weakest one.

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Yah even more evidence today that i was an idiot for propping 3H up and that Fire Emblem is the Turd of the Contest.

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Big cut for Persona 4

is it time to start posting P4 battle themes yet
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MechanicalWall posted...

Yah even more evidence today that i was an idiot for propping 3H up and that Fire Emblem is the Turd of the Contest.

I think its more that Persona 4 is just stronger then people thought. Persona 5s massive multi million success was because of Persona 4 building up that fanbase over the years.

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LeonhartFour posted...

Big cut for Persona 4

is it time to start posting P4 battle themes yet

And then Xenoblade gains most of it back. Maybe some Xenoblade themes might also needed to be counter the P4 themes.

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Xenoblade let's GOOOOO

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QeW_ycTXtVY

It's time... this is Xenoblade's greatest hour in the past 4 years

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LamarJackson posted...

I think its more that Persona 4 is just stronger then people thought. Persona 5s massive multi million success was because of Persona 4 building up that fanbase over the years.

I mean I have P4 winning this division, I think quite well of it.

3H got the benefit of the doubt when it looked like XBC was gonna storm this Round. Now that it hasn't... well, the excuses run thin

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DoctorJimmy133 posted...

Could be a bit of a bandwagon effect from beating GTAV.

Persona bandwagons to an overperformance but still loses. Xenoblade then gets SFFd so the division is adjusted by other means. GTAV is once again overrated in the stats, waiting to strike in the next contest and ruin more brackets.

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KamikazePotato posted...

Persona bandwagons to an overperformance but still loses. Xenoblade then gets SFFd so the division is adjusted by other means. GTAV is once again overrated in the stats, waiting to strike in the next contest and ruin more brackets.

Never again.
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KamikazePotato posted...

Persona bandwagons to an overperformance but still loses. Xenoblade then gets SFFd so the division is adjusted by other means. GTAV is once again overrated in the stats, waiting to strike in the next contest and ruin more brackets.

By the time we get to Games again, GTAV probably gets obsoleted by GTA VI, and I'm sure that will be interesting.

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what a weird choice to spoil an entire game in the Stats Topic
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Whats with the popularity of Persona 4 Golden. Its not even an original game. Why are remakes/ports/expanded editions allowed in this contest again?

And lol smash beating SMO by an even bigger margin than expected. As I said in an earlier stats topic, this site has a fetish for multiplayer party games. Im confident MK 8D would have won a hypothetical matchup against smg1, smg2 or SMO.

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argh P4G why do you do this to me

*goes back to playing P4G*
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Persona 4 has some of the weirdest internal logic I've seen in a game story. It works when experiencing it but explaining it out-of-context can sound wild. Persona 5 manages to trump it by a lot in weirdness though.

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My theory is that Fire Emblem Awakening was boosted by coming out at a time that was relatively weaker for JRPGs and Nintendo and by being both a JRPG and Nintendo, basically making it look better than it was by comparing it to the rest of the gaming landscape in the mid 2010s

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that's not the plot synopsys, that's literally the ending of the game. anyone vaguely interested in playing P4 stay away from that

Awakening is projected to get, what, 40% on Mass Effect 2 if you account for all the rallies? That seems like it lines up with pre-contest expectations.

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Sharinnegan posted...

that's not the plot synopsys, that's literally the ending of the game. anyone vaguely interested in playing P4 stay away from that

Deleted it since people seem to be annoyed at me talking about the plot of a decade old game with spoiler tags, but whatever. From the outside that game is stupid and cliched as hell is all I'm saying.

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yes most JRPGs plot synopses will sound weird as heck with zero context

you didn't need to paste one in here to demonstrate that
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And then there's the JRPGs where it doesn't make sense in-context either

I'm quite fond of Tales of Graces where, after half a game of playing in a firmly swords-and-sorcery level of technology setting, you take a spaceship to a station on the moon

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LeonhartFour posted...

argh P4G why do you do this to me

*goes back to playing P4G*

Play xenoblade

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ninkendo posted...

Play xenoblade

I can't for another few weeks
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KamikazePotato posted...

And then there's the JRPGs where it doesn't make sense in-context either

ie 90% of them


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KamikazePotato posted...

And then there's the JRPGs where it doesn't make sense in-context either

Anyone who claims to understand the plot of the Xenosaga trilogy is a liar tbh.

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charmander6000 posted...

Yeah, Tekken 7 should be stronger, but the two games are weak enough on GameFAQs that franchise votes could give MK11 the win.

I think I'd take MK11 over Tekken 7 straight up due to apathy votes, but I'd guess Tekken would look indirectly better against most possible combinations of opposition, just as we saw this contest.

KamikazePotato posted...

Awakening is projected to get, what, 40% on Mass Effect 2 if you account for all the rallies? That seems like it lines up with pre-contest expectations.

2015 stats project a ME2 win with barely 55%, and ME2 seemed to have at least as much reason to decline as Awakening pre-contest.

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Seeing a mention of a day night/cycle in an earlier post is making me wary about my Xenoblade HD preorder. Is that a super open/sidequest heavy game? Thought that was only a thing with the sequels.

Heropon_Riki posted...

Anyone who claims to understand the plot of the Xenosaga trilogy is a liar tbh.

so a dude rips off his head to impress some robot loli with a soul or something all so he can then later become like god and shit as he fights his sorta brother, an angel, Mary trapped inside a sexy robot, Mary's stalker, and some other chumps who clearly don't belong here. anyway, robot-Mary with tits and heels ultimately fights against a dark version of herself to fight for the universe because Jesus.

i don't remember exactly how much of that is true but i feel it's close enough.

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Xenoblade has a majoras mask style bombers journal where every NPC has of routine they follow every day and certain side quests can only be triggered at certain times of the day And as you complete them the bombers journal turns into a spiderweb of connections between NPCs and how they're all related to one another

Improvements to side quest tracking is one of the quality of life improvements I'm hoping definitive edition has

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to be honest, the supernatural elements of Persona 4 aren't all that relevant to enjoinment of the story. the main plot hook is a murder mystery, and on that sense it is very easy to follow.

Persona 5 similarly is a fairly straightforward story about rebelling against society.

i think thats why they manage to resonate with many people that dont often care much about Jrpgs (5 especially).

ninkendo posted...

Xenoblade has a majoras mask style bombers journal where every NPC has of routine they follow every day and certain side quests can only be triggered at certain times of the day And as you complete them the bombers journal turns into a spiderweb of connections between NPCs and how they're all related to one another

Oh I am DEFINITELY canceling this.

I'll go ahead and add it to Ganefly, though.

GotD

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