Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1345

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PostContestUlti
04/15/20 8:12:53 PM
#1:


https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/1345-south-division-round-2-mario-vs-shadow-the-hedgehog

Remember when Shadow the Hedgehog was actually cool?

~*creativename's contest site*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analyses*~
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~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim*~
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http://thengamer.com/xstats

~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

~*Closest Wire-To-Wire Matches*~
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/Closest_Wire-to-Wire_Matches

~*All-Time Guru List*~
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/All_Time_Guru_Rankings

~*Most Surprising Results*~
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/Most_Surprising_Results

~*Contest Histories*~
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends

~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's extrapolated percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

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NowItsAngeTime
04/15/20 8:24:43 PM
#2:


I still like Shadow the Hedgehog

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#3
Post #3 was unavailable or deleted.
Yuri_LowelI
04/15/20 8:29:15 PM
#4:


Witcher 3: The Hunt for GOTD

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_SecretSquirrel
04/15/20 8:31:18 PM
#5:


This match is part of the reason Magus got so overrated, since Tidus and Shadow going 50/50 validated the xstats position of Tidus/Ganon/Magus.

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DoctorJimmy133
04/15/20 8:33:20 PM
#6:


Well, if I did my math right, if ME3 is worth 60% on Halo Reach, then BotW is worth 60% on TW3

If ME3 doubles Halo Reach, then BotW = TW3

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#7
Post #7 was unavailable or deleted.
Kamekguy
04/15/20 8:37:12 PM
#8:


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raptor36000
04/15/20 8:41:03 PM
#9:


UltimaterializerX posted...
This would be incredible.

Would it be fair to say there's an overlap in the Mass Effect and Witcher Fanbase?

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LusterSoldier
04/15/20 8:48:35 PM
#10:


Grand Theft Auto V vs. Cuphead
Registered Vote Result:
Grand Theft Auto V - 5713 (61.45%)
Cuphead - 3584 (38.55%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Grand Theft Auto V - 5024 (57.71%)
Cuphead - 3681 (42.29%)

Persona 4 Golden vs. Red Dead Redemption
Registered Vote Result:
Persona 4 Golden - 4595 (49.40%)
Red Dead Redemption - 4706 (50.60%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Persona 4 Golden - 4689 (53.87%)
Red Dead Redemption - 4016 (46.13%)

Xenoblade Chronicles vs. Overwatch
Registered Vote Result:
Xenoblade Chronicles - 6806 (73.16%)
Overwatch - 2497 (26.84%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Xenoblade Chronicles - 6411 (73.66%)
Overwatch - 2293 (26.34%)

Ori and the Blind Forest vs. Fire Emblem: Three Houses
Registered Vote Result:
Ori and the Blind Forest - 3491 (37.54%)
Fire Emblem: Three Houses - 5809 (62.46%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Ori and the Blind Forest - 3330 (38.25%)
Fire Emblem: Three Houses - 5376 (61.75%)

Grand Theft Auto V and Red Dead Redemption were both big winners with the registered users, with GTAV doing a little bit under 4% better with registered users and RDR doing about 4.5% better. RDR outright won the registered user vote, but it didn't affect the overall result as P4G would have still won even without the registered user bonus.

Extra info and past results - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kFS3SfH6sAhPdS85H7BpuFIkr9SayeF7AhMw-wrEBng/pub
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Popular at school, but not as cool as Advokaiser, Guru Champ!
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MechanicalWall
04/15/20 8:52:21 PM
#11:


Witcher 3 had to be the 1 Seed that had the biggest spread of opinions surrounding it pre-contest

There were people (like me) that took it to be a bona fide finalist, there were people that thought it was going down in Round 3 against a game that lost to ME1, and there were plenty of people that thought it was going to lose every round in-between.

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KamikazePotato
04/15/20 8:53:09 PM
#12:


Very good result from Witcher, but it's also the worst possible opponent Mass Effect 3 could have drawn so I'm hesitant to draw big conclusions from it.

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ShortReplies
04/15/20 8:53:14 PM
#13:


Yuri_LowelI posted...
Witcher 3: The Hunt for GOTD

Switcher 3 Breath of the Wild Hunt.
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#14
Post #14 was unavailable or deleted.
ShortReplies
04/15/20 8:54:12 PM
#15:


KamikazePotato posted...
Very good result from Witcher, but it's also the worst possible opponent Mass Effect 3 could have drawn so I'm hesitant to draw big conclusions from it.
I agree, it depends on opponent.
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raptor36000
04/15/20 8:54:18 PM
#16:


Any early predictions on Witcher 3 vs Galaxy 2?

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DoctorJimmy133
04/15/20 8:54:56 PM
#17:


KamikazePotato posted...
Very good result from Witcher, but it's also the worst possible opponent Mass Effect 3 could have drawn so I'm hesitant to draw big conclusions from it.
Didn't people also say this about AC Odyssey? Just how lucky is Witcher so far?

(also hey there 84% update)

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Advokaiser
04/15/20 8:55:48 PM
#18:


Can't believe GTAV did a lot better with registered users, lol.

I... don't quite get it being so anti-voted by the board but still doing much better than with the casuals.

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MechanicalWall
04/15/20 8:57:10 PM
#19:


While other games have been stomping on 'literally what' indies and general fodder, Witcher has put its boot on the neck of big name-brand games. Even with SFF these are still ridiculous results, Assassin's Creed and especially ME3 would have won plenty of matches in this bracket.

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ShortReplies
04/15/20 8:58:52 PM
#20:


I think Blood and Wine should have been in this contest and it would be hilarious to see it beating big games.
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davidponte
04/15/20 8:58:59 PM
#21:


Witcher is going to win the contest and some people will say, "Yeah, but, it keeps getting the best possible opponent. Just you wait until it faces something real".

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Advokaiser
04/15/20 8:59:01 PM
#22:


Hey, @UltimaterializerX , I'm getting into the FPS genre for the first time, starting with Wolfenstein 3D and I'm having a blast.

Is Doom Eternal really that good? How does it fare against other FPSs or id Software games?

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KamikazePotato
04/15/20 8:59:59 PM
#23:


DoctorJimmy133 posted...
Didn't people also say this about AC Odyssey? Just how lucky is Witcher so far?
Hey, I said the same thing in the Crew topic pre-match so I'm not using revisionist history!

Witcher is very strong, and could upend Skyrim, but there are caveats with its performances. Its opponents may have brand names but I don't trust them Assassin's Creed Odyssey and Mass Effect 3 to do well at all against games people actually care about. With Mass Effect 3 especially you end up with a case of Revered WRPG vs. Extremely Easy to Anti-Vote WRPG.

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raptor36000
04/15/20 9:00:13 PM
#24:


DoctorJimmy133 posted...
Didn't people also say this about AC Odyssey? Just how lucky is Witcher so far?

(also hey there 84% update)

I think the main difference seems to be that Witcher's results are coming from matches where its facing games of the same genre(and in odysseys case, a straight up inferior version of Witcher 3) so most objective voting would go to the better game, which is witcher. It's true test will come against galaxy 2 which is the polar opposite of witcher 3.
That's why BoTW's demolition job of Halo is even more impressive.

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ShortReplies
04/15/20 9:00:34 PM
#25:


Doom Eternal seems like a beast of FPS, i heard big praise about it.
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ShortReplies
04/15/20 9:01:44 PM
#26:


raptor36000 posted...
I think the main difference seems to be that Witcher's results are coming from matches where its facing games of the same genre(and in odysseys case, a straight up inferior version of Witcher 3) so most objective voting would go to the better game, which is witcher. It's true test will come against galaxy 2 which is the polar opposite of witcher 3.
That's why BoTW's demolition job of Halo is even more impressive.
Makes sense, we wait for that match i guess.
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Team Rocket Elite
04/15/20 9:03:03 PM
#27:


davidponte posted...
Witcher is going to win the contest and some people will say, "Yeah, but, it keeps getting the best possible opponent. Just you wait until it faces something real".


I don't think people will say that about SMG2 but I guess we'll see.
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Congrats to Advokaiser for winning the CBX Guru Contest!
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KamikazePotato
04/15/20 9:03:50 PM
#28:


If Witcher 3 kicks SMG2's face in then some alarms are to be sounded. Especially since SMG2 seems a bit stronger this time around. This result against Stardew is impressive.

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BlAcK TuRtLe
04/15/20 9:03:52 PM
#29:


Advokaiser posted...
Can't believe GTAV did a lot better with registered users, lol.

I... don't quite get it being so anti-voted by the board but still doing much better than with the casuals.
I say this every time this comes up, but you guys are so unaware of what a strange echo chamber this board is.

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lol xstats
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raptor36000
04/15/20 9:04:12 PM
#30:


davidponte posted...
Witcher is going to win the contest and some people will say, "Yeah, but, it keeps getting the best possible opponent. Just you wait until it faces something real".
Im not trying to undersell witcher, I genuinely think its probably the 3rd strongest game in this tournament, behind BoTW and Smash(Maybe?). But its hard to make an objective analysis of its potential based on performances against games that inferior to it in its own genre.

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Advokaiser
04/15/20 9:04:14 PM
#31:


KamikazePotato posted...
Hey, I said the same thing in the Crew topic pre-match so I'm not using revisionist history!

Witcher is very strong, and could upend Skyrim, but there are caveats with its performances. Its opponents may have brand names but I don't trust Assassin's Creed Odyssey and Mass Effect 3 to do well at all against games people actually care about. With Mass Effect 3 especially you end up with a case of Revered WRPG vs. Extremely Easy to Anti-Vote WRPG.

Yeah, I agree that ME3 is an anti-vote magnet, and now that I think about it, ME3 vs. Starcraft 2 was a "who am I supposed to anti-vote here?" kind of match.

Though I think AC Odyssey is a respected game on its own and shouldn't be so weak.

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raptor36000
04/15/20 9:04:54 PM
#32:


KamikazePotato posted...
If Witcher 3 kicks SMG2's face in then some alarms are to be sounded. Especially since SMG2 seems a bit stronger this time around. This result against Stardew is impressive.
What's the percentage though?
Im expecting something like 70-30.

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Yuri_LowelI
04/15/20 9:06:01 PM
#33:


ShortReplies posted...
I think Blood and Wine should have been in this contest and it would be hilarious to see it beating big games.

Thats kind of stupid. Thats like saying lets put the BOTW DLC in it as well.

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KamikazePotato
04/15/20 9:06:06 PM
#34:


raptor36000 posted...
What's the percentage though?
Im expecting something like 70-30.
Considering that that's about what Ocarina of Time is projected to get on SMG2, then yes, if Witcher gets that it probably wins the contest.

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BlAcK TuRtLe
04/15/20 9:06:09 PM
#35:


Advokaiser posted...
Yeah, I agree that ME3 is an anti-vote magnet, and now that I think about it, ME3 vs. Starcraft 2 was a "who am I supposed to anti-vote here?" kind of match.
Only problem is this same logic applies to every contest appearance it's had, there's no reason for that to have changed, unless you think Andromeda was so bad that people retroactively started hating the original trilogy (which to be fair, may very well be true

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lordjers
04/15/20 9:07:08 PM
#36:


Advokaiser posted...
Yeah, I agree that ME3 is an anti-vote magnet, and now that I think about it, ME3 vs. Starcraft 2 was a "who am I supposed to anti-vote here?" kind of match.

Though I think AC Odyssey is a respected game on its own and shouldn't be so weak.

That match could be seen as just WRPGs been a more popular genre than RTS.

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ShortReplies
04/15/20 9:07:16 PM
#37:


I think Witcher 3 Vs SMG2 will be like 55-45 or 45-55, depends but its going to be really close.
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raptor36000
04/15/20 9:08:14 PM
#38:


KamikazePotato posted...
Considering that that's about what Ocarina of Time is projected to get on SMG2, then yes, if Witcher gets that it probably wins the contest.
Ocarina of time would get more. Also I can see a lot of people antivoting BoTW just because of the praise it gets, and general dislike of nintendo dominance in contests, but I cant imagine anyone would antivote Witcher.

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Advokaiser
04/15/20 9:08:36 PM
#39:


KamikazePotato posted...
If Witcher 3 kicks SMG2's face in then some alarms are to be sounded. Especially since SMG2 seems a bit stronger this time around. This result against Stardew is impressive.

Impressively weak.

Can't even triple a 2016 indie game.

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Team Rocket Elite
04/15/20 9:08:52 PM
#40:


BlAcK TuRtLe posted...

Only problem is this same logic applies to every contest appearance it's had, there's no reason for that to have changed, unless you think Andromeda was so bad that people retroactively started hating the original trilogy (which to be fair, may very well be true


If nothing else Andromeda ripped the wound open again.
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ShortReplies
04/15/20 9:08:55 PM
#41:


raptor36000 posted...
Ocarina of time would get more. Also I can see a lot of people antivoting BoTW just because of the praise it gets, but I cant imagine anyone would antivote Witcher.
LOL you need to visit other boards then, every two days someone opens a topic to complain about it.
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Yuri_LowelI
04/15/20 9:09:06 PM
#42:


raptor36000 posted...
What's the percentage though?
Im expecting something like 70-30.

LOL no fucking way.

Anything abov 64% is great for Witcher here.

ITs still a mainline mario.

If TW3 comes close to doubling SMG2. Then we might as well put it in the final now with BOTw and end the contest.

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KamikazePotato
04/15/20 9:09:36 PM
#43:


Skyrim (2015g) VS Mario Galaxy 2 (2015g)
Skyrim has a strength of 34.93.
Mario Galaxy 2 has a strength of 27.47.
Skyrim wins with 60.68% of the vote!

Use this as you see fit.

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Advokaiser
04/15/20 9:09:45 PM
#44:


BlAcK TuRtLe posted...
Only problem is this same logic applies to every contest appearance it's had, there's no reason for that to have changed, unless you think Andromeda was so bad that people retroactively started hating the original trilogy (which to be fair, may very well be true

ME2's showings have proven otherwise! It's ME3 that's the weakest link by far.

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Leonhart4
04/15/20 9:10:04 PM
#45:


KamikazePotato posted...
Very good result from Witcher, but it's also the worst possible opponent Mass Effect 3 could have drawn so I'm hesitant to draw big conclusions from it.

I mean, we've said this two rounds in a row to downplay its performances!

I don't know that this is a stronger Galaxy 2. Witcher 3 has faced two AAA games and Galaxy 2 has faced perhaps the weakest game in the bracket and indie Harvest Moon. I'm glad it's put up two good numbers but I'm afraid Witcher 3 is going to clean its clock.

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ShortReplies
04/15/20 9:10:08 PM
#46:


KamikazePotato posted...
Skyrim (2015g) VS Mario Galaxy 2 (2015g)
Skyrim has a strength of 34.93.
Mario Galaxy 2 has a strength of 27.47.
Skyrim wins with 60.68% of the vote!

Use this as you see fit.
can you send me the site that calculates this? please.
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charmander6000
04/15/20 9:10:26 PM
#47:


From the previous topic...

Yeah, Skyrim is f***ed. Dark Souls has a better chance of upsetting Witcher than Skyrim does. If Witcher is doing this to one (still pretty popular) Western game, the only true danger it faces before Zelda is a shot from Japan. All other Western games are going to crumble in front of it.

So my Persona 5 > Witcher 3 upset lives on?

>_>

<_<

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Today's Picks: Witcher 3, SMG2, F:NV, GoW
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Yuri_LowelI
04/15/20 9:10:46 PM
#48:


ShortReplies posted...
I think Witcher 3 Vs SMG2 will be like 55-45 or 45-55, depends but its going to be really close.

SMG2 will be lucky to hit 40.

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raptor36000
04/15/20 9:10:51 PM
#49:


To be fair Skyrim in 2015> Skyrim in 2020.
Also to be fair SMG2 in 2015> SMG2 in 2020.

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KamikazePotato
04/15/20 9:11:17 PM
#50:


ShortReplies posted...
can you send me the site that calculates this? please.
http://thengamer.com/xstats/

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