Board 8 > The Show EP 1 - The Glorious Return of GotD! Breaking down the bracket w/ Leon

(+) Yeah! (+)

Jeepers, tiebreakers all over the place on this Guru entry topic. If only more people listened to The Show!

(though it took 5 hours of concentrated listening to reach Luster's wonderful advice, so honestly I can't hold it against anyone who didn't get there)


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Alright, locking in my bracket now. I ended up with 18 upsets versus the BOP, though there are a number of close calls there that I'm expecting to swing the other way in the Guru Cookie. But should end up somewhere between 16 and 19 in the final tally (which is nice because that's what TPLink's analysis said to shoot for).

Did switch a few things since our recording, but for the most part I stuck with my initial gut bracket moreso than I ever have. Like I said live, this is going to be the I've Heard Good Things About contest and so I trust my general opinions of games (based on my friend group, B8 topics, podcasts, hearing good professional reviews/Game of the Year results) a little more and past poll results a little less.

Probably a mistake, but I'm going down with the ship!


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Ngamer64 posted...

(though it took 5 hours of concentrated listening to reach Luster's wonderful advice, so honestly I can't hold it against anyone who didn't get there)

The tiebreaker range should have been revealed at the end of part 1, not at the end of part 2.
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INCORRECT Luster, it's the crucial information that we needed to leave hanging until the last second to make sure everyone listened all the way through. Same reason TV shows have cliffhangers, or grocery stores put milk all the way in the back corner.


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still up at 2:19 am finishing up part 2

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There is indeed a tiebreaker segment in the last 7 minutes of Part 2

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I have increased my estimate based on that segment and the thought of coronavirus

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"it is 2:45 am on the west coast. Ng and leon are not on the west coast."

I retract post #310

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Ngamer64 posted...

Alright, locking in my bracket now. I ended up with 18 upsets versus the BOP, though there are a number of close calls there that I'm expecting to swing the other way in the Guru Cookie. But should end up somewhere between 16 and 19 in the final tally (which is nice because that's what TPLink's analysis said to shoot for).

Did switch a few things since our recording, but for the most part I stuck with my initial gut bracket moreso than I ever have. Like I said live, this is going to be the I've Heard Good Things About contest and so I trust my general opinions of games (based on my friend group, B8 topics, podcasts, hearing good professional reviews/Game of the Year results) a little more and past poll results a little less.

Probably a mistake, but I'm going down with the ship!

Even better than me, I think I had maybe 13 upsets.

In the end there were a lot of picks I couldn't justify against.

Yuri_LowelI posted...

Yo blazer ranting on dEath Stranding was the highlight

In fact any podcast where they shit on Death Stranding is going to be Gold.

It convinced me to take Overwatch if nothing else. People don't like Blizzard nowadays but not quite to that level.

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I've only got like 6 upsets (although there are a couple that are 50/50 in the last BOP)

but it's kind of difficult to have a lot of upsets unless you really go into left field when you're the one kind of setting the trend for some of the contest picks...!

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I'm here scrapping for more upsets. I have 11.

In one hand, I literally have Odissey > Smash, so maybe I don't need more?

On the other hand, I don't want to go against my own research, danmit.

not as easy as you thought is it...!

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I'm almost pulling the trigger on Berseria > FFXV

Someone stop me

why would I stop you

one less bracket

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You know what, if my Odissey pick means I don't have to take a lot of risks, it also protects me from the point loss from early round risks.

Let's make history. Go my Velvet.

it doesn't protect you from other people who take Odyssey and don't pick Berseria...!

Mario is a fraud. I know a fraud when I see one. Heed my words.

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LeonhartFour posted...

it doesn't protect you from other people who take Odyssey and don't pick Berseria...!

Mario is a fraud. I know a fraud when I see one. Heed my words.

I know, but so far I've only seem two of those people, one just chickened out, and the other is taking Pokemon to get to the finals so it doesn't count.

I imagine the Guru will have more of them.

people can't help overestimating Mario in these contests

they've been doing it for 18 years

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My other latest upset special is Bloodstained vs Borderlands

I feel like going all in on the "Borderlands is dead" train.

ZeldaTPLink posted...

My other latest upset special is Bloodstained vs Borderlands

I feel like going all in on the "Borderlands is dead" train.

I'd love to see that but i doubt enough people played it.

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Now that's not a bad upset. I almost pulled the trigger on it.

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well, mario is in ultimate too.

people who pick odyssey aren't overestimating mario, they're just going with the wrong game with the character!

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I'm with you on Bloodstained > Borderlands.

- It has the pic advantage
- Close ties with SotN
- Borderlands hype being over
- History of Borderlands sucking (seriously just look bad it did in 2013)
- Plus it's only 1 point so why not?

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I have one big argument for Berseria.

It has more walkthroughs on GameFAQs (12 vs 3, counting all versions) than Final Fantasy XV.

It's freaking Final Fantasy, and people can't bother to write guides for it here.

Yeah ok I'm in.

that's like using the top 50 boards rankings to make picks

(which we did in 2004 which is how G/S/C > Xenogears became a popular pick)

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LeonhartFour posted...

that's like using the top 50 boards rankings to make picks

(which we did in 2004 which is how G/S/C > Xenogears became a popular pick)

That's not the only argument though, just the one I felt like posting.

I'm just saying that using internal metrics (like ratings, FAQs, board popularity, etc.) has never translated to contest strength, so I'm hoping that isn't all you're basing this on.

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I'm taking Hollow Knight over FFXV. Basically the same thing.

Also, I thought I listened to the whole podcast but I never noticed you guys talking about tiebreakers. I guess I checked out after you finished the bracket. When episode 2, anyway?

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Going through the test matches, Match 74 is only showing 16% of the field for some reason.

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Something interesting: Portal 2 is now beating RDR 2 in the BOP, but it wasn't always like this. RDR2 used to be the clear favorite. Well, I know I switched my pick to Portal after hearing yoblazer's case on it, I wonder if it was the same for the rest. Because there is probably a correlation between the number of people who listened to this ep. of the Show and the number of people picking Portal to win.

I had Portal 2 from the beginning!

yo and KP get all the credit

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LeonhartFour posted...

I had Portal 2 from the beginning!

yo and KP get all the credit

KP had RDR2 winning with 51% in his analysis topic. did he change his mind?

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Last chance to save your bracket (in Division Four that is)!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tVfMySwUibQ

azuarc posted...

Going through the test matches, Match 74 is only showing 16% of the field for some reason.

Hmmmm true, it's the ' in "Marvel's" messing up the site. TRE and I will fix this.

azuarc posted...

Also, I thought I listened to the whole podcast but I never noticed you guys talking about tiebreakers. I guess I checked out after you finished the bracket. When episode 2, anyway?

It's in the last seven minutes of Part Two. We'll record again early next week.


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That XB FE pick is killing me now. I've had FE since day 1 but that trailer was hype today.

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Noooo, I dont think I have the courage to make such a big change this late!

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don't fall for that trailer

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Glad i already submitted Guru and don't have to think about it.

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the real trailer to worry about is the Bravely Default 2 announcement trailer

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Brackets are now LOCKED DOWN, but there's still time to join all the other fun side contests!

Oracle
Spread
Streak aka Battle Bracket

If you haven't entered your Guru bracket yet, don't worry. SB needs to fix the page to display the Elite Eight choices correctly, once he does so we'll be able to get back to accepting new entries.


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don't forget last man standing!

and the first vote challenge just went up

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Okay, now that the bracket is up, going to listen to Part 2. Didn't want my opinions to be influenced because I'm bad at trusting my own opinions.

Glad I did, because you guys might've convinced me to switch to Berseria! And hey, Indie Glass Ceiling shoutout.

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In the context of today's poll, Yo is making me nervous about VVVVVV/Fallout 4.

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I'd be all for it!

don't think it's gonna happen though

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I've had XBC coming out of division 4 the whole time. What was there to save, exactly?

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I'm liking this esports sidebar.

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I'm going to push back a bit against the 'Donkey Kong Country Returns/Tropical Freeze made DK a beast' narrative. I think, while they had an impact, DK's rise last contest was due more to the voting format than anything else, for the same reason characters like Pac-Man and Crash did well - when you're forced to pick between two characters, DK is an easy 'eh, why not?' vote.

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Except Crash benefitted massively from a remake trilogy that was a giant success! Big reason I took the upset over Cecil and it paid off. Pac-Man had some good stuff and Smash yoo. They became relevant again.

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Except Crash and DK were surprisingly good in 2013 before the format change, too!

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